Snow for the far north tonight possibly (low probability)

darkman2

All at risk of some falls which could cause disruption to transport Monday morning. The Southern Half of the country may get away with it with just backedge snow during Monday. Higher routes are certain to see significant falls. Significant falls in many northern areas are very likely between 00:00hrs Monday and 06:00 Monday.


EDIT: Best change this post to suit the risk. Ulster, Connaught and North Leinster most likely to see some snow.

TheHairyFairy

Currently snowing throughout Fermanagh at the moment, short showers of snow, lying where the ground is frozen from the cold over night.

samhail

think will be taking the jeep tomorrow to work so

Mint Sauce

mmm, might travel this evening instead, thanks for the heads up

ninebeanrows

With regards to tonights snowfall.

It looks like it will be a snow to sleet to snow event for many.

Areas most at risk Connacht, Ulster, the Midlands and North Leinster.

Going to be wild though, with very heavy precipitation and strong winds.

ninebeanrows

Corker of a fax

JanuarySnowstor

Yes brilliant fax looks like the low is not developing like gfs thinks.
We remain in the colder slot for most of the ppn esp further north
I would very much include the snow risk for the south matty esp as the cold digs in again later tonight. I would say we are looking at a lot of snow between now and Wed morning though too mild for most this evening

ninebeanrows

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yes brilliant fax looks like the low is not developing like gfs thinks.
We remain in the colder slot for most of the ppn esp further north
I would very much include the snow risk for the south matty esp as the cold digs in again later tonight. I would say we are looking at a lot of snow between now and Wed morning though too mild for most this evening

Yes the south are certainly at risk when the cold moves in again, as much as everyone else.

munsterlegend

all rain showers in north cork at the moment..when do you expect the cold to kick in again to affect the south? tonight or tomorrow?

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

all rain showers in north cork at the moment..when do you expect the cold to kick in again to affect the south? tonight or tomorrow?

tomorrow morning.

200motels

darkman2 wrote: »

Areas


Derry
Down
Armagh
Monaghan
Meath
WestMeath
Dublin
Wicklow
Galway
Donegal
Mayo
Antrim
Armagh
Louth
Tyrone
Fermanagh
Longford
Tipperary
Offaly
Kildare
North Waterford


All at risk of significant falls which could cause disruption to transport Monday morning. The Southern Half of the country may get away with it with just backedge snow during Monday. Higher routes are certain to see significant falls. Significant falls in many areas are very likely between 00:00hrs Monday and 06:00 Monday.

This is the latest from Met Eireann.

Today
Frost in many areas at first this morning, with some icy roads. Very cold and windy today with heavy showers of rain, hail and snow, and scattered thunderstorms. Winds will gust to around 100 km/h at times, with highest temperatures of only 3 C to 6 C.
Tonight

Staying very cold and windy tonight, with rain, sleet and snow becoming more widespread. Wintry showers will follow later, with further thunderstorms. Frost in many areas overnight also, and some icy roads. Lowest temperatures of minus 1 C to 3 C.


Tomorrow

Continuing very cold and windy on Monday, with showers of hail, sleet and snow, many heavy and possibly thundery. Highest temperatures of 3 C to 6 C, with strong and gusty southwest to west winds.

3 Day Outlook

The rest of the week will remain cold, although temperatures may rise slightly after midweek. There will be long clear periods throughout Monday night but with severe frost and icy roads likely as well. On Tuesday highest daytime temperatures will still only be around 5 or 6C and westerly winds will continue to blow a lot of showers in off the cold Atlantic. The showers will be more frequent over the west, north and southwest of the country at times almost continuous. However the eastern side of Ireland will not be as badly affected by them, and the day will be drier and brighter here. But in the low temperatures, the showers will continue to be wintry with snow on the higher ground and at times too lower down. The showers will largely die out on Wednesday and the day shoueld be dry, although it will still be a cold day. Heavy rain moves up across the country during Thursday morning and it will be wet everywhere. At this stage it looks like we might get some relief from the rain and showers towards next weekend but temperatures will continue to be low and the nights will be frosty.

peasant

darkman2 wrote: »

Areas
Donegal
Mayo
Fermanagh

Any particular reason why Sligo/Leitrim is not on this list when the neighbouring counties are?

And if there is a particular reason, could you possibly explain what brought you to that conclusion?

Not criticising, just curious ....

nacho libre

raining here now. i'm not condifent of widespread heavy snowfall at lower levels tonight because there is a southerly airmass ahead of the front so warmer air is advected in even though it is returning polar maritime air from the northern Atlantic. so i think snow will be restricted to higher levels until the cold air kicks in at the back end of the front.

ninebeanrows

Just to indicate why showers may be turning more sleety in nature in places.

There is a warmer slice of air crossing the country atm. colder air back in towards evening and then moves north towards 1am and then colder air back again from 7am tomorrow.

Rain here too

maquiladora

Metcheck showing "Heavy Snow" for Waterford for 3am-6am period...

:pac: Now that would be nice....

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/today.asp?zipcode=waterford

JanuarySnowstor

It's becoming increasingly clear now that the low pressure tonight will be much further south and east keeping virtually the whole country in colder air throughout. The beeb's weatherview showed widespread white over Ireland
Expect the warnings to come thick and fast this evening for the country's most severe and widespread event in many years. I would expect chaos on the roads by the morning;)

ninebeanrows

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It's becoming increasingly clear now that the low pressure tonight will be much further south and east keeping virtually the whole country in colder air throughout. The beeb's weatherview showed widespread white over Ireland
Expect the warnings to come thick and fast this evening for the country's most severe and widespread event in many years. I would expect chaos on the roads by the morning;)

You certainly are alot more confident than me:eek:

darkman2

peasant wrote: »

Not criticising, just curious ....

I forgot:p

peasant

darkman2 wrote: »

I forgot:p

everybody forgets Leitrim ...but Sligo? ...hmmpf ...

ninebeanrows

Irish Met playing it safe.

Staying very cold tonight winds easing off somewhat. Rain, sleet and snow will extend eastwards, turning heavy in places. Some accumulations of snow are likely, mainly across the north and over higher ground. Frost and icy stretches later too. Lowest temperatures of minus1 to plus 3 degrees.

DominoDub

maquiladora wrote: »

Metcheck showing "Heavy Snow" for Waterford for 3am-6am period...

:pac: Now that would be nice....

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/today.asp?zipcode=waterford

They have also issued a watch & warning for all Ireland

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/warnings.asp

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

Irish Met playing it safe.

yes it doesn't seem to share januarysnowstor's optimism..you would think they would err on the side of caution if they believed such a risk was likely?

Odysseus

Cheers for the heads up. Since that my mode of transport is a motor bike I think I head off this evening, rather than wait for the morning.

tony1212

so what are the chances of getting snow in limerick, tonight, tommorrow, or tuesday

ninebeanrows

DominoDub wrote: »

They have also issued a watch & warning for all Ireland

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/warnings.asp

Can we please stop linking to this site

Gonzo

just had a shower of rain here, im not so confident of seeing proper snow tonight, I feel we will have a mixture of rain and sleet and maybe some wet snow on the backedge with very little if anything sticking. I think the main areas of risk of seeing some proper sticking snow conditions from tonights front will be those living in highground locations and some inland areas in the North. The majority of England & Wales also looks set to only get rain and sleet with the main snowy conditions reserved for parts of Northern England and Scotland. But I think this could very marginal whatever the outcome, if were lucky we could see more widespread snow nationwide than what is expected but I wouldnt be beting on Dublin City Centre to be grinding to a halt tomorrow morning due to deep snow.

* metcheck if they can ever be believed are now forecasting a band of rain turning to sleet before it clears for Meath tonight and rain all the way for Dublin.

ivabiggon

Edenderry, offaly

sleet to rain here in showers atm. Snowed enough to build a frosty at 11ish last nite (which we did). Still on the ground on the fields etc.

nacho libre

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It's becoming increasingly clear now that the low pressure tonight will be much further south and east keeping virtually the whole country in colder air throughout. The beeb's weatherview showed widespread white over Ireland
Expect the warnings to come thick and fast this evening for the country's most severe and widespread event in many years. I would expect chaos on the roads by the morning;)

i still think snow will be confined to higher ground until the front begins to clear.
however you were right about the last period of snow we got. so hopefully you're right again about what will happen tonight:)

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

i still think snow will be confined to higher ground until the front begins to clear.
however you were right about the last period of snow we got. so hopefully you're right again about what will happen tonight:)

the bbc do seem to be showing a lot of white in their forecast and i always think they are very reliable. However won't believe widespread snow until it happens given all the previous predictions which haven't worked out as planned. Still at least this 'snow' event is very close as opposed to 3-5 days away.

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

the bbc do seem to be showing a lot of white in their forecast and i always think they are very reliable. However won't believe widespread snow until it happens given all the previous predictions which haven't worked out as planned. Still at least this 'snow' event is very close as opposed to 3-5 days away.

yeah you're right there. the bbc forecast tends to be more reliable than met eireann.

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect the warnings to come thick and fast this evening for the country's most severe and widespread event in many years. I would expect chaos on the roads by the morning;)

:eek:

ninebeanrows

My personal opinion is it will start as rain/sleet across most areas apart from the north central areas of the midlands and Ulster.

But will readily turn to snow towards dawn tomorrow with some slushy accumulations in many areas.

Sierra Oscar

Issued at 18 January 2009 - 02:36
Weather Advisory


This very cold and often windy spell will continue up to mid-week at least. Most areas can expect falls of sleet or snow at times, leading to some accumulations. The nights will be frosty in most places also, with some icy roads.

Valid until 0900 Wednesday 21/1/2009

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

ninebeanrows

I'm quite pessimistic about tonight, GFS sticking to its guns and surely can't be wrong this near out.

I expect widespread rain apart from the far north. This will be followed by sleet and perhaps snow as it clears tomorrow.

Chance of snow showers again during tomorrow as the rain/sleet/snow clears.

Very wet i reckon. Nice and snowy up in the Mournes for sure

Sierra Oscar

Weathercheck wrote: »

I'm quite pessimistic about tonight, GFS sticking to its guns and surely can't be wrong this near out.

I expect widespread rain apart from the far north. This will be followed by sleet and perhaps snow as it clears tomorrow.

I guess we should not expect any snow to stick around for too long . . .

ninebeanrows

At this rate i would say the chance of snow is probably greater during Tuesday evening and night!

It always gets put off so probably won't happen but a nice prospect.

TheGreenGiant

I don't know folks but in Trim today for instance, when showers passed though, it wasn't rain that was falling but sleety snow. Its 4C hear at the moment but it feels like 0C obviously due to the wind chill factor. But I think judging by the temp and precip charts below, alot of snow could fall tonight across alot of Ireland as the air temperatues drop. Its something to watch, but I do agree we could have a better chance of snow monday night and on into Tuesday especially for the north and west. At least we will get to see some of the white stuff anyway, something to be optomistic about, wheter it sticks or not:)

the chharts below are for 6AM in the morning

ronbyrne2005

Just back from week in Pyrenees. Was great to walk through ten feet snow drifts! Hopefully we will get some this week here in Dublin. Was a bit scary driving through the Pyrenees at night with six foot of snow either side of the mountain roads. Sledging down steep slopes was also so cool, felt like a kid again :pac:

munsterlegend

meteireann only seems to suggest snow on higher ground is most likely tonight though the bbc weatherview seems to suggest a lot of white for ireland..always seem to get a lot less optimistic from morning to evening..suppose things are so marginal hard to predict with any certainty.

Supercell

Jeeze, go to work and come back to wild ramping, fella's some VERY large ramping going on here this evening!

Looking at at the GFZ 12z, here's my thoughts:-

First off the 850's

T+12 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn122.png
+1 -> -1°C across the country rain certain except on the very highest mountain tops

T+18 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn182.png
0 -> -4°C (at a stretch) - rain at lower levels, sleet above maybe 200 metres, snow above 300 possibly.

Dew points - needs to be sub zero for wintry precipitation generally.
Midnight :-



6AM System now approaching Wales



As you can see the chances of snowfall tonight are very low indeed except from the highest slopes, very north of the country and maybe early tomorrow in the west in the form of showers.

So unfortunately I don't think many will be making snowmen tomorrow or having a snow day off work.
I'm going to amend the thread title as its a bit misleading at this point.

nacho libre

Supercell wrote: »

Jeeze, go to work and come back to wild ramping, fella's some VERY large ramping going on here this evening!

Looking at at the GFZ 12z, here's my thoughts:-

First off the 850's

T+12 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn122.png
+1 -> -1°C across the country rain certain except on the very highest mountain tops

T+18 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn182.png
0 -> -4°C (at a stretch) - rain at lower levels, sleet above maybe 200 metres, snow above 300 possibly.

Dew points - needs to be sub zero for wintry precipitation generally.
Midnight :-



6AM System now approaching Wales



As you can see the chances of snowfall tonight are very low indeed except from the highest slopes, very north of the country and maybe early tomorrow in the west in the form of showers.

So unfortunately I don't think many will be making snowmen tomorrow or having a snow day off work.
I'm going to amend the thread title as its a bit misleading at this point.

talk about a downgrade. now only the word maybe is being used with regard our chances of snow tomorrow morning. well to be fair you were not involved in the ramping. however, supercell if we don't get a decent fall snow by monday night i'm holding you personably responsible:D

Supercell

nacho libre wrote: »

talk about a downgrade. now only the word maybe is being used with regard our chances of snow tomorrow morning. well to be fair you were not involved in the ramping. however, supercell if we don't get a decent fall snow by monday night i'm holding you personably responsible:D

Lol!, weeks not out yet, I reckon you might see some more wintry showers there tomorrow anyhow

Gonzo

huge downgrade from met eireann, they are saying now most likely just rain for tonight with maybe some sleet mixed in, Snow confined to the highest of ground. Tomorrow sunny spells & wintry showers. I think we will see some snow falling at some stage 2moro but I dont think anything will stick unless it falls 2moro night.

JanuarySnowstor

Gonzo wrote: »

huge downgrade from met eireann, they are saying now most likely just rain for tonight with maybe some sleet mixed in, Snow confined to the highest of ground. Tomorrow sunny spells & wintry showers. I think we will see some snow falling at some stage 2moro but I dont think anything will stick unless it falls 2moro night.

You must have seen a different forecast to me.
My thoughts are similar to earlier. Basically the main belt of rain early tonight will be that i.e mainly rain with sleet restricted to the highest hills.
As this clears though a lively showery trough follows on around 5am with very cold uppers digging in aswell. It is this that is likely to give snow to some, ironically the Southwest looks favourite. To start the morning the bitter air will speedily cross the country with showers widespread and falls of snow to all levels. By tomorrow night a large swathe of the country will be white imo;)

Cornilius

Is there anybody who could update us from the Kilbeggan-athlone area because there are reports of icy condition there this evening from the AAroawatch.

**Watch out for icy road conditions on the N6 between Kilbeggan and Athlone in Co. Westmeath, on the N2 in Monaghan and Donegal. Particular care is advised on the N15 through the Barnesmore Gap in Donegal and in Wicklow through the Sally Gap

Villain

http://www.nra.ie/RoadWeatherInfo/Map/data/htm/WeatherTable.htm

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

You must have seen a different forecast to me.
My thoughts are similar to earlier. Basically the main belt of rain early tonight will be that i.e mainly rain with sleet restricted to the highest hills.
As this clears though a lively showery trough follows on around 5am with very cold uppers digging in aswell. It is this that is likely to give snow to some, ironically the Southwest looks favourite. To start the morning the bitter air will speedily cross the country with showers widespread and falls of snow to all levels. By tomorrow night a large swathe of the country will be white imo;)

i have to admire your continued optimism januarysnowstor and hope it materialises. the rte forecast was a downgrade of sorts but not a massive one and let open the possibilty of snow at lower levels but most likely on higher ground when the colder front moves in. the bbc still have a lot of white for ireland though you would thing meteireann would cover themselves if they though that snow was very likely and may cause disruption.

Supercell

I think the west of Ireland will see some wintry showers early on before turning back to sleet/rain later in the afternoon.
The east half is unlikely to see much at all that's wintry if anything as by the time showers have reached here it will warmed up too much for anything wintry (apart from sleet or hail i guess) below 250 metres except in the North East.
That said it is still marginal and most likely to remain a nowcast situation with regards post front passing as most showery regimes are.
Tonight though almost certainly looks like a rainy one.

nacho libre

Supercell wrote: »

I think the west of Ireland will see some wintry showers early on before turning back to sleet/rain later in the afternoon. Thats what the 12z shows, dew points are around 0 or higher by afternoon across the country generally (apart from the north east)
The east half is unlikely to see much at all that's wintry if anything as by the time showers have reached here it will warmed up too much for anything wintry (apart from sleet or hail i guess) below 250 metres or so.

well if that proves to be the case then it's definitely a downgrade because a couple of days ago we were progged to have snow widespread on monday and tuesday. still i should have known better this is ireland we live in and we've had similar experiences so many times before. so it looks like snow by night and rain and sleet by day resulting in any nightime accumulations melting quickly.

to get widespread snow in Ireland, resulting in decent accumulations for many, it seems we need a properly northerly blast with a series of trough coming down from Greenland or better still a polar low. though, sadly polar lows are all too rare:(

JanuarySnowstor

Just like to add on small point abouth the beeb's forecast
Through the last 20years or so (that's how long i have the beeb) I have always seen them call it right for us more times than not. The fact that they show so much white over Ireland says to me they are very confident of this. Their maps can be a bit misleading, if it was the old symbols they would just have snow symbols over us which would look better:D
It is my opinion that the reason today got milder is because this system to the south of us closed off the really cold circulation very early this afternoon. Once this pass through late tonight they will be nothing to stop the arctic wind from blowing through, which will also help convection tomorrow / tues in between troughs. That is why today was quite dry too because the upper cold was diverted away from us and therfore no convection.
Trust me on this, I am fully sure we will see plenty snow tomorrow

Supercell, not saying you are wrong either, anything can happen in marginal events