Recession looming as unemployment rate rises

Xavi6

Something to think about for all those jumping the good ship Emerald Isle -

Unemployment rate climbs as economic downturn bites

15/01/2009 11:00:00 AM

By Emma Thelwell, ninemsn Money

Nearly 45,000 Australians lost their jobs last month, according to official labour force figures, prompting further fears that the local economy may slip into a recession this year.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has announced that during December the jobless rate rose from 4.4 percent to 4.5 percent.

In the largest monthly decline of full-time jobs since March 2003, today's figures unveiled a slump of 44,000 jobs lost during December. The number of Australians that have lost their jobs since August now stands at 77,000.

With some industry experts predicting a jobless rate of as much as 8 or 9 percent for 2009, many workers are becoming increasingly anxious over the future of their jobs.

However, Saul Eslake, chief economist at ANZ, said: "Business balance sheets are in a much better state than they were in 1989.

"Companies are not being squeezed by high interest rates and employees are not being priced out of jobs by pursuing inflationary wage rises."

A worst-case scenario, said Eslake, would be for companies to over-react. He said: "Employers that don't understand that they may not need to cut jobs, but do it anyway are the biggest danger (to rising unemployment). Some might do it out of a desire to prove how tough they are to shareholders."

Earlier today it was reported that Telstra is considering slashing thousands of jobs in anticipation of of slower economic growth in 2009. The company has already set the ball rolling with plans to axe 12,000 jobs by 2010.

Ford Credit Australia compounded the misery after announcing plans today to wind down part of its Australian operation, in a move that will see 160 jobs lost.

The reports follows earlier announcements from Babcock and Brown of 850 global jobs cuts, meanwhile ANZ Bank plans to shed 800 workers and Fairfax Media is to cull 550 employees.

ANZ Banking Group's monthly survey revealed on Monday that demand for new employees has dropped to "recession levels", which could see unemployment rise to 6 percent this year.

The number of job advertisments fell for the eigth consecutive month in December, according to ANZ.

The number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet fell by 9.7 per cent in December to an average of 190,661 per week. In the past year, adverts have fallen by 50 percent.

Analysts said the figures were consistent with a looming recession.

brendansmith

Fu(k sake.

One Cold Hand

Yeah could be bad news for anyone looking for sponsorship visas.

seanybiker

If australians are anything like us I presume they will be blaming the Irish over there and want to send them all home. Lol. I dont think they be that bad though

brendansmith

seanybiker wrote: »

If australians are anything like us I presume they will be blaming the Irish over there and want to send them all home. Lol. I dont think they be that bad though

Awesome joke dude!

watna

There was a bit on the news the other night about NZ and the recession. They reporter was saying that the experts think that the unemployment rate will rise but that it will not get to the levels some have forecast. The reporter also said that they think NZ will fare better then other countries and start recovering in mid 2010.

Now, I don't know you to believe but it's rare for a news article like that not to be doom and gloom. It left me feeling quite positive.

My job actually just paid my work permit fee for me. I also need some medical tests and as I'm not a resident they were quite espensive. Work are paying for those too as long as I sign a contract to stay here for another year or else I pay it back. That made me feel quite positive about the situation too, that they were making sure i would stay as opposed to trying to get rid of me.

Xavi6

The stories of a recovery in 2010 are over here too, but it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better, which is the crux of the article.

dSTAR

Rewind back a few months ago when Rudd was telling us that the Australian economy is strong and should weather the global credit crisis without too much economic woes or job losses.

Here and here

Then again pollies have a reputation for being economical with the truth if it means popularity in the polls. The worst is yet to come I reckon.

brendansmith

Xavi6 wrote: »

The stories of a recovery in 2010 are over here too, but it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better, which is the crux of the article.

You journalists are such f**kin scaremongers.

Watna, everything is gonna be fine, just fine.

One Cold Hand

I really hate all those Economists on the TV telling us all how bad it's going to be. Sh!ting on about how unemployment could reach as high as 10%. Justifying their existence by exaggerating how bad things could get. It's because of them that everyone starts to cut down on spending, and once businesses start to let people go it's a slippery slope. I honestly believe that if they weren't on TV screaming 'RECESSION' then everyone would be just getting on with their lives. As soon as one person mentions it thats it.

/rant

Xavi6

brendansmith wrote: »

You journalists are such f**kin scaremongers.

Watna, everything is gonna be fine, just fine.

One Cold Hand wrote: »

I really hate all those Economists on the TV telling us all how bad it's going to be. Sh!ting on about how unemployment could reach as high as 10%. Justifying their existence by exaggerating how bad things could get. It's because of them that everyone starts to cut down on spending, and once businesses start to let people go it's a slippery slope. I honestly believe that if they weren't on TV screaming 'RECESSION' then everyone would be just getting on with their lives. As soon as one person mentions it thats it.

/rant

You're both firmly in it.

dSTAR

One Cold Hand wrote: »

I honestly believe that if they weren't on TV screaming 'RECESSION' then everyone would be just getting on with their lives. As soon as one person mentions it thats it!

I agree. It is the same lemming like investors that sell off their shares as soon as there is a market correction. Of course the smart investor will snap up these bargains and hold onto the solid stocks in the knowledge that they will bounce back and be worth more in the long run.

brendansmith

Xavi6 wrote: »

You're both firmly in it.

Very good.

But here what i cant understand is how the fu*k Australia could go from a skills shortage to 10% unemployment in afew months.
I mean hello Ruddy, ah duh ya muppet, why dont ya stop ridin that swan and make him do some work ya feckless muppeh?

BraziliaNZ

seriously they're laying off so many people here in Rio Tinto, and in Argyle Diamonds who are one of their companies too. Apparently advertised jobs in WA have fallen more than in any other state.

Rabies

Personally i think the media has made the global economy worse off than it should be. They've put the ****s up so many companies (big and small) that some of the lay offs could have been avoided.
Even poor media sources (similar to The Sun) send shivers through the back bone of the country.

NZ and OZ have a huge WHV program. Internationals provide so much of the cheap casual labour. I'm not sure if residents will 'lower' themselves and do unskilled work in the short term.
I can see younger NZ/OZ teens taking up more and more of these jobs, supermarkets, fast food, fruit picking, tourism centres and less been given to overseas workers.

Right now, I'm like a few of you. I've been here for a couple of years. Got a permits and moving towards applying for residency in a few months. If I was new in the country, I don't think I'd have a hope of getting it. But right now I think I'm in with a good chance of being successful when I apply. Here since oct '06, been working with the same company for the duration and have completed different training courses to make me a valuable employee. So right now, I can do the job better than a kiwi person.

pclancy

There's a general caution and streamlining of budgets but i wouldnt say we're in a recession here. Cheap petrol and house prices have kept things okay, plus Kiwis are in no way near as exposed as most Irish as regards credit. You see far fewer brand new plush houses and brand new cars down here, people live a lot more within their means and are happier with second hand or DIY stuff unlike many at home.

Scary seeing people being laid off from Nortel and some of the other large IT houses are keeping budgets tighter then before but I think the industry is pretty solid. There has been a vast drop in contract and temp positions then there was when I was looking for work earlier in the year though. I'm going to have to get a perm job soon if no more contracts appear by the end of this month.

BraziliaNZ

NZ has been in recession for about a year now, this is the 3rd or 4th quarter of recession

watna

I'm presuming Pclancy means the media hyped idea of a recession as opposed to what the word actually means. It's become this huge scary swear word. RECESSION!!! Aah, run to the hills!

I can see what he means though. Even though there was redunancies where I work (it's an American owned company and they were ordered to save on people costs) it hasn't affected me otherwise. I'm just hoping it stays that way.

Perhaps moving to NZ and taking a salary cut and lowering in my standard of living (maybe lowering is a bad choice od word, perhaps I should use differing in my priorities) means that the recession goes over my head because things have changed a lot for me anyway.

slipss

Xavi6 wrote: »

The stories of a recovery in 2010 are over here too, but it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better, which is the crux of the article.

Tell me about it, was sitting in a job agency today at 10, there was about 30 people sitting in there waiting to be seen, at 10:15 the guy behind the desk stood up and said "listen everyone, I don't want you wasting your time, we have absolutely nothing unless you have a HC truck license with 5 years plus experience, come back at the end of the month and we might have something". Didn't fill me with optimisim.

plonk

If you want a job on a whv in oz its piss easy to get one as long as you don't mind where you want to work. Im not talking about the absolute middle of nowhere but north of brisbane in places like mackay construction work is still plentiful. So if your not picky you'll get a job.

The mining industry was driving rural queensland and wa for the last number of years and there has been significant lay off in all of wa (not sure about queensland) in the mining industry. This again is going to cause a huge influx of people back into cities, so people on whv will ultimately find it harder to get a construction job in a city.

From talking to my mates in perth they still are all in jobs formworking with no prior experience getting 30$ an hour.

missannik

brendansmith wrote: »

But here what i cant understand is how the fu*k Australia could go from a skills shortage to 10% unemployment in afew months.
I mean hello Ruddy, ah duh ya muppet, why dont ya stop ridin that swan and make him do some work ya feckless muppeh?

The skills shortages were mainly nursing, engineering, teaching and trades (electricians, plumbers, etc.) Whereas, it seems, that many job losses are in the manufacturing, banking, administration and construction areas. So I presume that a lot of the skills shortages are still an issue... I know it's still the case in nursing and healthcare jobs.

Heisenberg.

This post has been deleted.

dachubba

Is there anyone here logged on feel that Australia is a "modest chance" country to search for jobs? is the probability of locating a decent job more larger in Oz than here?

All comments welcome

brendansmith

missannik wrote: »

The skills shortages were mainly nursing, engineering, teaching and trades (electricians, plumbers, etc.) Whereas, it seems, that many job losses are in the manufacturing, banking, administration and construction areas. So I presume that a lot of the skills shortages are still an issue... I know it's still the case in nursing and healthcare jobs.

Em, engineering and trades (electricians, plumbers, etc.) = Construction.

missannik

brendansmith wrote: »

Em, engineering and trades (electricians, plumbers, etc.) = Construction.

I realise that. I guess I didn't explain myself very well... whilst there are areas of previous skill shortages that are now experiencing job losses, there is still the issue of skill shortages in many areas, especially within the healthcare sector, particularly in rural areas. Having the possibility of 10% unemployement will not mean that those who are unemployed can just fill in the shortfalls- unemployment rates and skills shortages do not go hand in hand.

Diamondmaker

dachubba wrote: »

Is there anyone here logged on feel that Australia is a "modest chance" country to search for jobs? is the probability of locating a decent job more larger in Oz than here?

All comments welcome

In short I beliee that there is a far better chance of getting work here right now than at home, thats clear.

At home I know seeral people wo are laid off or coming to end of contracts with nothing to renew onto.

Here I no not one person laid off or not one person who cant find a job.

It is but a rule of thumb, but measuring by your peers is an effective way I feel. Maybe thousnad of low skilled and unskilled labour have been laid off - mines car factories etc - recently and they have affected the live register, but I and my friends are not in that category, so its not massiely relevant to let certain stats worry you.
Also all the back packer jobs I feel will remain and even the home soil tourism shall stregthen as Ozzies stop hoildying in Fiji, Bali and SE Asis to stay at home.

If you have a skill or a trade, a good work ethic, experience and are genuinely good at your job, you will fare better.
Recessions are a great way of cutting the fat out of the work force.

Good labour will be held onto as much as possible as you cant just pick it up again whe you need it later.

Regulator79

Jobs are not being “needlessly” axed in Ireland anymore than economists are to blame for “talking us into a recession”. Catch yourselves on boys.

The Irish economy has been one being property pyramid scheme since 2001. Take construction out of the equation and we haven’t had positive economic growth in seven years. When the property bubble burst all the “bubble jobs” go with it in a devastating multiplier effect. First construction, then the white collar associated jobs, then retail as a result of the drop in consumer spending. And if you’ve got a problem with that blame Fianna Fail and all the fooking eejits that voted for them. They are the ones that caused this mess ultimately.

The thing about Global recessions is that well, they are global. Australia has a housing bubble too ( not as serious as ours though) and will suffer as demand for its exports diminishes particulary from China. Unemployment will go up and my guess will be WHV holders will find it far more difficult. That said, ( and nobody knows for sure) my hunch is that Oz will come through this with far less damage than our banana republic

brendansmith

Regulator79 wrote: »

Jobs are not being “needlessly” axed in Ireland anymore than economists are to blame for “talking us into a recession”. Catch yourselves on boys

The Irish economy has been one being property pyramid scheme since 2001. Take construction out of the equation and we haven’t had positive economic growth in seven years. When the property bubble burst all the “bubble jobs” go with it in a devastating multiplier effect.
First construction, then the white collar associated jobs, then retail as a result of the drop in consumer spending. And if you’ve got a problem with that blame Fianna Fail and all the fooking eejits that voted for them. They are the ones that caused this mess ultimately

The thing about Global recessions is that well, they are global. Australia has a housing bubble too ( not as serious as ours though) and will suffer as demand for its exports diminishes particulary from China. Unemployment will go up and my guess will be WHV holders will find it far more difficult. That said, ( and nobody knows for sure) my hunch is that Oz will come through this with far less damage than our banana republic

Excellent points there

Regulator79

brendansmith wrote: »

Em, i think you might wanna clean that up abit.

How? i just copied from word and it came out gobbledigook

watna

Regulator79 wrote: »

How? i just copied from word and it came out gobbledigook

I think it is something to do with having formatting in word. You know those "styles" that you can put on, i.e heading 1 etc.

If it keeps happenening maybe post in the helpdesk and someone who actually knows how these things work can help? I couldn't read that at all.

shane86

plonk wrote: »

From talking to my mates in perth they still are all in jobs formworking with no prior experience getting 30$ an hour.

What is formworking? You mean farmwork?

Im intending to stay in Sydney until the weather gets bad, then head to the far norh for 3 months rural work (dont at all want to, but sure I might want the 2nd year). My cousin was talking to some lads in construction who went out in Oct and are back claiming they couldnt find work, but my mate is still employed in Sydney no problem.

I think part of the problem may be attitude. Pretty much no builder I know would "lower" himself to working in a supermarket or a takeaway, jobs like that are seen as being for teenagers, women or people not up for "real work" and alot of them wouldnt have the min education requirements for an office job. I know lads who would rather be on the scratch waiting for the occasional building job than accepting a job in Dunnes.

brendansmith

shane86 wrote: »

What is formworking? You mean farmwork?

Formworking is putting up formwork to pour concrete into on a building site.

shane86

Any more news? Is it still relatively handy to pick up minimum wage or call centr type jobs in Sydney?

btw how far are the nearest fruit picking areas from Sydney? I want to stay in the city and dont fancy headin out until the Sydney winter starts.

Regulator79

I am not all surprised that there is an increase in the number of queries regarding the state of the economy in Australia. As Ireland’s decline continues – unemployment at 15-20% by middle of 2010- I expect that more and more people will look to Australia as an escape hatch.

In my opinion the situation is as follows: Australia is being affected by the global recession too. This is leading to rising unemployment in all sectors. It also means that skills shortages in low skilled jobs- traditionally food and drink to the WHV backpacker are getting harder to come by as the Labour market tightens up. The situation is being compounded by a significant increase in people coming from Ireland seeking work. Especially those who have just been bitten by the collapse of the property pyramid scheme. That said, we have a long way to go before Australia becomes as bad as Ireland is right now.

My advice would be to ascertain before you come if you’re skills are in demand. A basic trawl of the jobs websites will tell you that. The more experienced you are the better chance you have of getting work. The flip side of this is that if you are young with limited experience in the workplace you may decide that staying at home, up skilling and living with your folks is a better option.

Personally, if I was just out of school or college with no work experience I wouldn’t come here. The money would be much better spent at home.

Zambia

Regulator79 wrote: »

I am not all surprised that there is an increase in the number of queries regarding the state of the economy in Australia. As Ireland’s decline continues – unemployment at 15-20% by middle of 2010- I expect that more and more people will look to Australia as an escape hatch.

In my opinion the situation is as follows: Australia is being affected by the global recession too. This is leading to rising unemployment in all sectors. It also means that skills shortages in low skilled jobs- traditionally food and drink to the WHV backpacker are getting harder to come by as the Labour market tightens up. The situation is being compounded by a significant increase in people coming from Ireland seeking work. Especially those who have just been bitten by the collapse of the property pyramid scheme. That said, we have a long way to go before Australia becomes as bad as Ireland is right now.

My advice would be to ascertain before you come if you’re skills are in demand. A basic trawl of the jobs websites will tell you that. The more experienced you are the better chance you have of getting work. The flip side of this is that if you are young with limited experience in the workplace you may decide that staying at home, up skilling and living with your folks is a better option.

Personally, if I was just out of school or college with no work experience I wouldn’t come here. The money would be much better spent at home.

Good post, be advised just cause there are lots of Jobs in your area , does not mean you will get one quickly.

Regulator79

Too true. People need to understand that the world has changed, this is a global recession and will go down to the wire. Nobody really knows where its going to end up All of us, every one, are now going to have to try and survive.

The funny thing is that so many Irish people spend the last ten years ignoring any piece of news or information that might be considered political- probably why we have a pack of corrupt gombeens in government- only for it to come and smack them in the face when things go wrong. They better get up to speed with the new paradigm quick smart.

shane86

I have been hearing this no jobs thing quite a bit since returning from my holiday (I was there from mid Nov to mid December), yet when I was there nobody had trouble securing employment. On my way back in a fortnight with the WHV, bit worried I might have to go up the country sooner than I wanted (Im only going up to get my 2nd year and to avoid the Sydney winter, if the weather was fantastic all year round Id stay in Sydney, class nightlife)

Just a thought, but in the cities (or specifically Sydney) couldnt it be down to two factors:

a- The influx of foreigners who had been elsewhere in Oz coming for new year and hanging around all January looking for work, coupled with arrivals from Europe for NYE

and

b- It is summer in Oz. The schools were off, as were colleges I presume. Therefore a huge glut in the amount of natives aged 16-24 seeking to work minimum wage jobs for ever hour they can fit, which of course would drop off as soon as the new semester starts. I wikid it, and the schools went back in late January (they get 5 weeks in summer, hahaha ). Are the colleges back yet?

Its just I cant fathom that foreigners were walking into jobs in December and cant find any a few weeks later.

Regulator79

shane86 wrote: »

I have been hearing this no jobs thing quite a bit since returning from my holiday (I was there from mid Nov to mid December), yet when I was there nobody had trouble securing employment. On my way back in a fortnight with the WHV, bit worried I might have to go up the country sooner than I wanted (Im only going up to get my 2nd year and to avoid the Sydney winter, if the weather was fantastic all year round Id stay in Sydney, class nightlife)

Just a thought, but in the cities (or specifically Sydney) couldnt it be down to two factors:

a- The influx of foreigners who had been elsewhere in Oz coming for new year and hanging around all January looking for work, coupled with arrivals from Europe for NYE

and

b- It is summer in Oz. The schools were off, as were colleges I presume. Therefore a huge glut in the amount of natives aged 16-24 seeking to work minimum wage jobs for ever hour they can fit, which of course would drop off as soon as the new semester starts. I wikid it, and the schools went back in late January (they get 5 weeks in summer, hahaha ). Are the colleges back yet?

Its just I cant fathom that foreigners were walking into jobs in December and cant find any a few weeks later.

You forgot to mention that the world economy is being ravaged by the biggest economic downturn in a century.

shane86

Regulator79 wrote: »

You forgot to mention that the world economy is being ravaged by the biggest economic downturn in a century.

Within one month!?!

Leave off, the first hints of job losses here began maybe last March, the construction industry started taking a hit around July/ August, and the whole thing only massively kicked off around October.

Crumble Froo

watna wrote: »

There was a bit on the news the other night about NZ and the recession. They reporter was saying that the experts think that the unemployment rate will rise but that it will not get to the levels some have forecast. The reporter also said that they think NZ will fare better then other countries and start recovering in mid 2010.

Now, I don't know you to believe but it's rare for a news article like that not to be doom and gloom. It left me feeling quite positive.

it's hard to believe that nz has been in recession for longer than ireland... maybe it's just cos im living in lil ol' christchurch whereas i had been living just outside dublin, which obviously covers a lot more people and a lot more jobs, etc, but nobody here is taking the recession as badly as the peeps i know back home are. almost every single week, im talking to peeps back home and someone else i know has lost their job, or another shop i knew/loved has shut down. just been so many stories of loss on the job front, but it definitely seems more positive over here than back home. *hopes i can stay*

My job actually just paid my work permit fee for me. I also need some medical tests and as I'm not a resident they were quite espensive. Work are paying for those too as long as I sign a contract to stay here for another year or else I pay it back. That made me feel quite positive about the situation too, that they were making sure i would stay as opposed to trying to get rid of me.

god, i hate you.


i have a job if my visa gets approved, but i can't be guaranteed the same amount of hours that i would have been if the visa was through work.

might end up picking up a few oddjobs etc if that happens... i had such a crazy life before i moved to nz... and i've never experienced financial instability and uncertainty like i have in the year or so ive been livin here.

Regulator79

Crumble Froo wrote: »

it's hard to believe that nz has been in recession for longer than ireland... maybe it's just cos im living in lil ol' christchurch whereas i had been living just outside dublin, which obviously covers a lot more people and a lot more jobs, etc, but nobody here is taking the recession as badly as the peeps i know back home are. almost every single week, im talking to peeps back home and someone else i know has lost their job, or another shop i knew/loved has shut down. just been so many stories of loss on the job front, but it definitely seems more positive over here than back home. *hopes i can stay*



god, i hate you.


i have a job if my visa gets approved, but i can't be guaranteed the same amount of hours that i would have been if the visa was through work.

might end up picking up a few oddjobs etc if that happens... i had such a crazy life before i moved to nz... and i've never experienced financial instability and uncertainty like i have in the year or so ive been livin here.

Easy enough to explain. Our recession is the worst in the world bar Iceland maybe and that is not an exageration. WE did it to ourselves

Frank007

All the economic indicators around the Oz economy are suggesting that the economy will actually grow in 2009 (albeit only very slightly),

the most pessimistic of forecasts from the world bank and IMF say the the Oz economy will contract by 0.5%.

This was announced before the new stimulus package was formulated in Oz, so the effects of that have yet to be accounted for.

So anybody who is saying that Oz will turn into a deep recession is talking b*llocks

seachto7

Frank007 wrote: »

All the economic indicators around the Oz economy are suggesting that the economy will actually grow in 2009 (albeit only very slightly),

the most pessimistic of forecasts from the world bank and IMF say the the Oz economy will contract by 0.5%.

This was announced before the new stimulus package was formulated in Oz, so the effects of that have yet to be accounted for.

So anybody who is saying that Oz will turn into a deep recession is talking b*llocks

Dunno. 2 of my mates living in Sydney (not backpackers) tell me things aren't good..

Diamondmaker

Frank007 wrote: »

So anybody who is saying that Oz will turn into a deep recession is talking b*llocks

I have to disagree, I would love to see these stats you are referring to and a better arguemet for your point than "b*llocks".
We heard all the same optimistic, soft landing, tripe, at home 2 years ago.

One key insulatory factor Oz had from recession was mining and so long as Chinas economy is slowing in growth the demand is reducing. The mining industry lay offs are hitting areas hard and guys I know who were brought from abroad as top professionals are all in fear of their jobs and indeed there have been thousands of lay offs and not just at the coal face.
Rio, BHP ane even ancillary businesses like Sandvik ( quipment to mining ) are laying off '00s to '000s.

Another huge sector is construction which is likewise slowing, house building and commercial buidling are suffering and even floored interest rates are not bringing punters back to the market. With a huge portion of the Australian work force involved as tradies or the like this is having a negative effect on the economy and this will worsen. New businesses are less likely to set up and shoping centres arre havung to offer huge incentives to keep tenants and new builds are not being let, or when they are very keenly.

The stimulus package on the simplest of levels, is going to, maybe, pump $950 dollars per head of a portion of ozzies into the economy.
That is if they dont save it for the expected rainy days, this is what many are actualy expected to do with the " K Cash ".
Seriously......how far do people expect a one off cash injection of 950$ to go ?? A few months ??? X mas sales picked up due to previous K cash, but have slumped again, how long did that boost last???

The greater benefit of the package however, will be the funds diverted into schools upgrade and defence. This again will only affect a small number of consultants, materials suppliers and the builders and their subcontractors, that they keep close. You can be sure the succesful tenderers will have gone in very keen and lean to win any of this work, thereore there will not be obscene profits rolling around as a result.

The banking sector too may be sound fundamentally, but there will be no more record profits and even the banks are munbling about lay offs.

The car market had to be bailed out and car sales are currently at a record low. How long can they be propped up if people are not buying cars.

Australia is not some imaginary, fairy tale land, that is some how going to avoid a recession that will hit the rest of the world and has already slamed many places. Tell me what is so special about the Australian economy that means it wont do what the euo zone, US and the Emirates have done ?
Its just more closely aligned to China as the others the US and thats where the delay in effect to date has been.

The recession has even hit the like of Dubai where thousnads of cars have been just being ditched at airports, by expats, out of work flying home !

Its not being called a global recession for no reason ya know !

Frank007

Check out www.economist.com/indicators for all the accurate and up to date figures regarding the world economy.

I never said Oz was not in a serious slowdown, what I said was it is in a far better position than the eurozone and the U.S. Oz will go through some bad months and years but it will be a much softer landing (if all the statistics are to be believed).

Another thing, being overly negative about economic prospects are having a seriously detremental effect on each economy. The power of popular expectation is under-appreciated by most.

If enough people expect something to happen - it will happen. If every "expert" keeps banging on about how bad it is going to get, then it probably will get that bad.

I'm not saying that if we expect things to be great they will be but the repeated doom saying is not helping things one bit

Diamondmaker

Frank007 wrote: »

I never said Oz was not in a serious slowdown, what I said was it is in a far better position than the eurozone and the U.S. Oz will go through some bad months and years but it will be a much softer landing (if all the statistics are to be believed).

You said Oz going into a recession is B*llox. You then said the economy would contract. As far as am aware if this happens 2 months in a row it is then in recession? so you seem to contradict yourself ?

Stats are only stats and only represent a snap shot in time, what I would be more interested in are fundamentals about the Ozzie economy, that people believe make it more resilient, or immune to a world recession than other states. I have yet to come across these...as I said, this time last year mining was one of these "fundamentals"...

I agree with you talking up a recession 100% , we sure as hell did it at home with celebrity Economists and the power of the media. The amount of information people can now access at their finger tips, from various media sources, makes bad news travel fast and when we now hear so much about the global economies, it scares us more.

Its interesting times, I for one have found many positives come out of the recession and threats thereof....

Mobooo

A recession is two quarters of negative growth in a row as far as i am aware so 6 months

Oil makes the world tick and australia has plenty of it as well as the fact that alot of things are made here means it was the most likely to be immune unfortunatly the global credit crunch is so severe that no one will escape and this thing i hate to say and dont mean to cause fear but really im only talking on one message board so im not gonna effect things that bad but its gonna bring the world to its knees

Regulator79

I have only one interest in this and that is to make sure that people in Ireland reading this thread who are thinking of coming to Oz are aware of the situation vis a vis jobs and the economy.

The fact of the matter is that Australia is not immune to this at all and will, in my view, see its economy deteriorate over the next year. This will mean fewer jobs in a whole host of sectors- particularly for immigrants.

And by the way, lots and lots of Irish people coming down here are amoung the nearly 15% of people who had skills related to our property ponzi scheme. Guess what? they have a housing bubble here too and it will burst here too. So anyone saying that there is work in building here needs to look at the facts.

population

Really interesting read this.

My wife is an Ozzie and we lived there for a year and a bit back in 2001-2003. We came back to Ireland to try earn some euro and to buy a house with the hope of renting it out and eventually going back.

Anyway we are into our 6th year home and as everyone knows by now the country has imploded. My wife is keen to go back around Nov and thankfully the house is rented out to some good people, but I am wary that the work situ in OZ will be even shakier by then.

I am an Electrician by trade, but am currently finishing a BA (was supposed to be my career change but with the way things are dont think it'll do much for me in the short term) and have some part time work, which pays buttons but is just about feeding us, and my wife who does Office work has a job which though doesnt pay much, she has been assured is safe.

Would we be mad to go back???

I am genuinely unsure as though things arent great here I would hate to use up all the savings to go back to Melbourne and find things are as bad there.........

Diamondmaker

Job prospects here ( although not great ) are probably better than at home on a like for like basis and as you have no Visa issues ( I assume ) Id be on the 1st plane over.

Cost of living will be less should you avoid the big 2.

Quality of life too.

Regulator79

I understand the dilemma. However, in my opinion, and based on the limited information you have provided you have some distinct advantages. You are old enough to have significant work experience and your wife is Australian..

I think its safe to say that the Irish economy is and will become much worse than the Australian one. As things stand, the Irish economy is vaporising with nearly ten percent on the dole- Australia is not even close to that yet notwithstanding that unemployment figures lag behind other economic decline indicators. No one knows for sure what the ceiling for the Australian recession will be- just that it’s not as bad as Ireland.

After that it’s about adding up the push and pull factors and making a decision. This recession is global but in terms of getting a massive kick in the bollox Ireland is first in the queue.

The people who would really be risking a lot coming here in my view are

• Young people with little qualifications / work experience.
• People who depend on construction related employment to make a living.
• Anyone on a WHV.

Every case is different and luck plays a big part in whether things will work out but that my take on it. Its important that people are not seduced by the vested interest propaganda of the Australian visa specialists.