Stormy Weekend Ahead

M.T. Cranium

Some very strong winds now showing up on Wednesday night, and then again on Saturday (morning, mostly for Ireland, afternoon for Scotland).

Will leave the details until closer to the events, thinking there could be some gusts near 65 mph in both storms, south and west coasts. Directions mainly S or SSW.

nacho libre

It looks like wednesday will just be a very windy day rather than stormy.
However, on saturday we could be in for some severe gusts(of between 65- 70 MPH).

kerry1960

SA.... lol..... i can see you still digging out these type charts next june

looks to me like the Atlantic is back for the next few weeks , cool zonal ,

always a chance of a stray sleet/wet snow shower in the more

favoured locations in that situation , but then again what would i know :rolleyes:,

of much more concern to me in the medium term (imby)would be the

possible stormy spell progged for next w/e .

Storm 10

Just checking the weather websites and they are saying we could be in for a very stormy weekend, anyone have any further info on this board????

Snowaddict

kerry1960 wrote: »

SA.... lol..... i can see you still digging out these type charts next june

looks to me like the Atlantic is back for the next few weeks , cool zonal ,

always a chance of a stray sleet/wet snow shower in the more

favoured locations in that situation , but then again what would i know :rolleyes:,

of much more concern to me in the medium term (imby)would be the

possible stormy spell progged for next w/e .

Indeed!. But it certainly looks like that the coming weekend could be quite stormy with very good potential being shown at this point for some high wind gusts. GFS again hints at cold zonality thereafter, however I would not be convinced of this setup until we reach about T+96, due to possible modification etc and the possiblity of the scuppering of the cold with shortwaves cropping up etc.

Either way, its certainly looking quite stormy with a good possiblity of some wintriness thereafter. I have also noticed the presence of that high in the top right corner of some of the latest FI NWP outputs. Looks a bit of a beast to say the least.

SA.

Latest Charts for Sat, Sun and Monday: The majority show a very very windy to stormy period, with some showing cold zonality thereafter.

UKMO - 12Z 13 Jan



GFS 12Z - 13 Jan

http://212.100.247.145/gfsimages/gfs.20090113/12/102/h850t850eu.png

http://212.100.247.145/gfsimages/gfs.20090113/12/126/h850t850eu.png

http://212.100.247.145/gfsimages/gfs.20090113/12/150/h850t850eu.png

At this point GFS seems very persistent regarding that cold zonality and wintry potential which looks very good, if we could get it into the T+96 timeframe.

Hal1

Here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=58584613#post58584613

mike65

Looks like a nasty cold "backwash" to that storm indeed.

arctictree

12z GFS is showing temps of 1c for Saturday night with widespread precip. This is at t+108. Could be one of this borderline events where with a bit of height you could get a pasting.

Snowaddict

ECMWF run out to T+168 looks very good tonight, indeed its not terribly out of tandom with GFS at all. Suffice to say that there could potentially be very strong winds coupled with wintry synoptics in the offing if the latest NWP output verify:

T+120 (This coming Sunday)



T+168 (Next Tuesday)




However, I would note that we must be at T+96 in order to be somewhat more certain of the potential. At this point, things do look very interesting from a stormy and potentially wintry point of view.

Storm 10

Hal1 wrote: »

Here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=58584613#post58584613

Thanks Hal1

Hal1

Ne bodhor led.

Danno

<snip>

DOCARCH

Why can't we have a general model thread, like on a month to month basis?

When there is nothing happening weatherwise the models are usually throwing up some wierd and wonderful scenarios in FI.
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or should I be constructing a sentence with the words can of worms and opening

Mr Benevolent

Why can't we have a general model thread, like on a month to month basis?

Looks like you got your wish. Anyway, good news about the windy weather - thank feck, I can't be doing with mild weather.

Danno

I'll check the kitchen for you.

forkassed

DOCARCH wrote: »

Why can't we have a general model thread, like on a month to month basis?

+1

Danno

Somethings cooking according to Chef(s)

Supercell

We are discussing a revamped model thread arrangement.
For the moment can folks please stick to the topic here please.
Thanks

ninebeanrows

Yep a period of cool/cold at times West/ Northwesterlies looks like its going to take over for a 5 day period with strong/severe winds at times.

At this stage can't see any particularly severe wind events YET. However gusts to 130 K/M likely.

Its going to be interesting to see how chilly it will get, during SUNDAY, MONDAY,TUESDAY,WEDNESDAY it's possible for widespread heavy wintry showers and snow possible also.

It looks more of a Northerly Westerly than anything, could be interesting.

Definately going to be exciting though with thundery wintry showers rattling across the country.:D

M.T. Cranium

The 18z GFS seems to produce a slight downgrade to the windspeed potential for Saturday, but still, this event can go either way seeing that it is a case of rapid development in a very strong jet over the central Atlantic.

The energy for this storm is currently to the west of the Great Lakes and therefore has about 90 deg of longitude to travel in the next 96 hours ... this gives you some idea of the small differences that could expand into large differences in outcome by Saturday afternoon.

Once this storm gets off the east coast of the US on Thursday, it should explode and race forward to catch up to slower-moving low pressure near Iceland. The wind potential is really a question of how wide a turn this low will make before being absorbed into the slower-moving feature. If it makes a wide turn and sideswipes Ireland and Scotland then winds will be very strong, because wherever this low happens to go, there will be potential for winds of 70-100 mph moving along with it. At the moment, these seem more likely in the Atlantic shipping zones west of Donegal and towards Rockall, but we'll get a better handle on exactly where the strong winds are heading in a day or two.

Danno

Cheers for the update MTC.

I was looking at the 18z and couldnt help notice how this system sucks sub zero dew point air out of canada and flings it into Ireland... that is some fetch.

squonk

Looking forward to the storms. It'll be a bit of activity after the past relatively quiet conditions. I'm a bit concerned abut the heavy gusts that have the potential to show up on Saturday night. I always end up worrying about the roof in those cases!

One more thing, can we have a discussion about windy weather without FI models for snow risk getting dragged into the mix? I spent most of late December and early January following the models thread and we all know how that worked out. I'd rather see a decent discussion of the upcoming storms which are in a reliable timeframe at this point, rather than what may/may not be coming after them. That's for another thread imho.

Just my 2c.

Snowaddict

Some of the latest outputs this morning show the possiblity of some very windy conditions from what I make out. Especailly the ECMWF and UKMO runs out as far as T+144.

Here's ECM 00Z at T+144:



I would also note this morning that as well as the potential for some very windy conditions, ECMWF latest outputs also show some quite cold upper 850hPA temps over or approaching Ireland, with the T+96 chart now into the slightly more reliable timeframe as well:

T+96 00Z:



Also, the further out timeframe's on the latest run model upper 850hPA temps of -10 over a large part of Ireland. Interesting developments and thats a very deep area of low pressure shown on the top ECMWF chart.

The Latest Met Eireann online update is also indicative of an upcoming wild spell of weather and also mentions the possibility of it turning quite cold by the weekend and after that deep area of low pressure potentially moves through during the early part of next week.

It seems that we may experience a real mix of weather over the coming week.

Regards,
SA.

nacho libre

it going to be a windy period allright but in my vast experience:pac::o, windy periods and snow don't go together. at best we'll see maybe sleety rain out of this at lower levels. if we want snow we need a proper northerly or north westerly airsource that can withstand the perpetual party pooper that is the Atlantic

JanuarySnowstor

nacho libre wrote: »

it going to be a windy period allright but in my vast experience:pac::o, windy periods and snow don't go together. at best we'll see maybe sleety rain out of this at lower levels. if we want snow we need a proper northerly or north westerly airsource that can withstand the perpetual party pooper that is the Atlantic

Quite a sensible post. I would tend to agree going by experience. The 2 usually do not go hand in hand. The 12's will firm up on where this is all going but at the moment, leaving the undoubted potential aside, i worry about the longitivity as Wed does look like defaulting to regular zonality

Still all to play for and could well be turn out to be the most intersting weather we get this Winter. Fair play to S.A for spotting it coming several days ago

Villain

Jesus I may nail down my weather station

kerry1960

Villain wrote: »

Jesus I may nail down my weather station

Mine might be safer indoors .

IMBACKLATER

met eireann say a southerly gale on saturday, winds easing by the evening, dosent sound like much of a storm to me,

200motels

Yes Saturday looks extremely windy, stormy in fact.

Hal1

Looks like the first of the January storms, and she be a beasty.

Snowaddict

Hey all.

Here's the latest UKMO text forecast for Northern Ireland for the weekend. In this scenario I think it's fairly safe to assume that many of the conditions described in the forecast below are fairly applicable to the weather patterns for the majority of the island:

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:Very unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, occasionally heavy with snow on hills. Windy too, with south or southwesterly gales, perhaps severe gales, expected on Saturday.

Updated: 1540 on Wed 14 Jan 2009


The latest UKMO model output this evening for the Weekend period would suggest that the area of fairly intense low pressure will track to the north of us on Sunday after coming quite close to the western coast on Saturday, leaving Ireland under a fairly cool northwesterly airflow:




The T+120 chart also shows Ireland under a cold northwesterly airflow, with the low having tracked towards Iceland at this point: (Note also that this is fairly similar to the setup being shown on the latest GFS run).



If the above charts verify, then it will certainly be quite windy, however the track of the low has changed somewhat on the latest outputs, tracking more to the north. But there will also be some moderate potential for wintry type precip from what I can see on these latest charts. The FAX charts tonight should show a clearer picture.

Looking slightly further ahead to Tueday, and the UKMO T+144 chart still shows that low in an area south of Iceland, with Ireland under a cold northwesterly flow. The majority of the latest UKMO charts have the isobars quite tightly packed, indicating a fairly brisk flow, with the possibility remaining of some very windy conditions on Saturday.

Regards,
SA.

Supercell

Stormy and wet weather, don't mind that to be honest.
Wind might whip showers accros the country with maybe a dusting at Sally gap, but nowt lower down (in terms of snow).

JanuarySnowstor

Supercell wrote: »

Stormy and wet weather, don't mind that to be honest.
Wind might whip showers accros the country with maybe a dusting at Sally gap, but nowt lower down (in terms of snow).

I would have to disagree. What is showing is snow on hills with accumulations on Monday night quite possible even to lower ground.
I know we need to keep a balanced view amongst all the ramping but you are being a tad unrealistic imo.
Of course you could well be right, time will tell

Deep Easterly

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I would have to disagree. What is showing is snow on hills with accumulations on Monday night quite possible even to lower ground.
I know we need to keep a balanced view amongst all the ramping but you are being a tad unrealistic imo.
Of course you could well be right, time will tell

Hi Js,

Good post but is off topic for this thread. This thread is dealing with storm potential for the weekend only. A new model thread has just opened on the forum to deal with anything beyond this.

Darwin

Saturday looks like the first significant bit of windy weather we've had since last March (11th to be precise ). Here's a series of 3-hour charts from met.ie that I kept from that day - will be interesting to compare to what we get on Saturday.

Redsunset

hey accuweather has issued weather alarm the spanners for carlow gettin 6.6cm snow monday night and kilkenny 4.8cm.some is a mix.in the famous words of catherine tate " what a load of sh1t".they shouldn't be allowed do that so far out.was thought a serious lession the last month.anyway im enjoyin the wild weather

DOCARCH

redsunset wrote: »

hey accuweather has issued weather alarm the spanners for carlow gettin 6.6cm snow monday night and kilkenny 4.8cm.

All model based. Current models indiacte it's possible! Whether it happen is another thing!!! XC Weather at the moment is showing heavy snow for Dublin on Tuesday morning.

Gonzo

yahoo weather and bbc showing snow/rain and sleet for Dublin on Monday
unlikely imo, even when the majority of the country gets snow showers its usually just rain or sleet in dublin.

metchecks automatic reports look a bit more realistic.. mostly showing dry sunny weather with isolated light showers during the cold spell for the east as this will be a northwesterly based cold spell. They are predicting many sleet and snow showers for western and north-western areas.. this looks like how the majority of northwesterly cold spells have acted upon Ireland in the past.
My hopes for seeing any snow here in meath is very low unless the wind is coming from the east or north-east.

Deep Easterly

Hey guys, could you just deal with the storm potential for the weekend in this thread, as anything else is way off topic. Cheers

mickger

How bad is it looking for Saturday guys as i'm planning on going to Dublin from Waterford and if its going to be too bad i'll cancel.

TheGreenGiant

Hi, well judging by the latest charts I wouldn't say it would be a good day for driving. We could have wind gusts of up to 70mph, maybe even more, all depends on where the center of the low presents itself on Saturday. I would only travel if I had to...

Villain

Dublin to Waterford could have a very nice day Saturday until darkness when the wind and rain will sweep down the country, thats going on the latest Met forecast on the 9 o clock news

TheGreenGiant

Ah, I missed both this evenings forecasts. I was just going by the charts:p I guess it should be ok so:)

Danno

This storm will be a nowcast situation... you will be best advised to watch Friday Night's or even Saturday Morning's forecasts as alot can change between now and then. To re-itorate what I am saying...

There IS a storm on the way...

Whether this storm will deliver 20mph winds with 45mph gusts (still relatively OK to drive for an experienced driver) or 40mph winds with 75mph gusts (very tricky driving) remains to be finalised....

Hope this is of help...

rc28

"Issued at 16 January 2009 - 10:09
Severe Weather Warning
Warning of severe weather event on Saturday.

Wind:

Southerly winds, later veering west, will reach mean spells of 35 to 45 knots (65 to 85 km/h) with gusts of 60 to 75 knots. (110 to 140 km/h).

The highest gusts will be along exposed coasts, and over high ground.

Rain:

Rainfall totals of 20 mm to 30 mm are possible over much of Connacht, West Munster and West Ulster, with totals of 15 mm to 20 mm elsewhere.
Some flooding is likely.

High Seas:

Very high seas (8 to 10 metres over the open sea), may cause additional flooding in exposed coastal areas.

Warning valid 0900 to 2400 Saturday 17 / 1 / 2009."


140km/h is almost 87mph btw.

Welsh Wizard

Would the west coast get hit by a storm surge..?? could be nasty at high tide...

Pigeon Reaper

The tide is at neaps this week so it should be about 0.7 metre less than springs at H.W. Springs are normally a day or so after a full moon. This should help avoid some flooding but I would expect some surge. One things for sure and that is I'm not going out sailing this weekend.

ninebeanrows

The storm has begun to look more potent on recent runs.

Winds up the Irish sea progged to reach sustained 55mph.

shamwari

Met Eireann's forecast for next Tuesday:

During Tuesday, wintry showers in the west and north are likely to spread to many other parts of the country, with a risk of significant snowfall. West to northwest winds will strengthen for a time also and it will bitterly cold.

ninebeanrows

Sunday Night using UKM data.

Tasty

TheGreenGiant

The irony of it all:rolleyes: We had an easterly airflow for the better part of a month and not an inch of snowfall, except maybe some on the mountains. And now when we get a west to north west wind, we are seeing some snowfall...whats up with that!?:cool: At this stage I will take any