Wee gamble on the Tour Down Under

penfold83

I'm thinking of throwing a few bob on the winner of the Tour Down Under, to make it more interesting for myself if nothing else!

My original thoughts wandered to returning champion Andre Greipel. He's riding for Columbia who seem to take these early season races very seriously to rack up the numbers on the wins column, and obviously he's won it before so he's capable of good early season form.

But on the other hand there's Michael Rogers, who's obviously in decent form having won and come second in the Australian national time trial and road race respectively. However, he's on Columbia as well, so will he just be riding for Greipel? I'm finding it hard to tell. Rogers is supposed to be a leader on that team isn't he? I know he was sick and all, but he's back now, plus he's Australian. So is he going to pull rank and have Greipel riding for him instead?

Any thoughts anyone?

Greipel's odds are 6.6 on Betfair, with Rogers at 5.2.

Armstrong is the shortest odds at 4.2 but hasn't he already said he's not interested in the overall?

Caroline_ie

penfold83 wrote: »

Armstrong is the shortest odds at 4.2 but hasn't he already said he's not interested in the overall?

Our Friend Lance Said"

Lance wrote:

"I think it would be unrealistic to expect a victory," the American said in Adelaide. "The race has gotten harder and harder over the years. I hope to be in the mix, I could be completely wrong, I might be the first guy dropped."

Article

bcmf

Would be surprised if Armstrong will take it.I would say he is using it for "fine tuning".
Though reading Sean Yates website last nite he is expecting big things from Astana this year.
Greipel sounds like a good punt.

TinyExplosions

I'm going with Lance this year... don't care what he's said, I reckon he'll want to win his first race back... though I need to see the startup line really, Astana may not have brought the big guns Down Under

bcmf

From The Herald Sun Down in Aus


CYCLING phenomenon Lance Armstrong stunned Adelaide residents during a secret four-hour training ride yesterday.

Adelaide Hills dwellers gave the Texan the thumbs up when he took time out to acknowledge his growing legion of fans before next week's Tour Down Under.

The 37-year-old was surrounded by security through the hills, with police cars, motorbikes and support vehicles ensuring he was safe.

Armstrong chose not to ride with his Astana team yesterday, opting to share the road with three famous South Australian cyclists.

Two-time Tour Down Under champion Stuart O'Grady led the group of four alongside Armstrong, who appeared to drive the pace.

Retired 2004 Tour Down Under winner Patrick Jonker trailed alongside under-23 national road and time-trial champ Jack Bobridge.

Armstrong's aura was evident from the moment he rode his bike to the scenic Eagle on the Hill, chatting, laughing, smiling and enjoying his first hours in Adelaide since arriving late on Sunday night.

The quartet wound its way past Verdun, Mount Torrens and Woodside before dropping unannounced into Birdwood's Cafe Blumburg.

Speaking at the cafe, Armstrong had barely raised a sweat, despite having been in the saddle for almost four hours.

"You know when you arrive somewhere at night you never know what to expect until when you wake up," Armstrong said.

"I've never been to this part of Australia, so it's much prettier than I expected, you know, the landscape is different than what I expected."

Jonker, a teammate of Armstrong when they rode for US Postal, said after the ride his mate was "ripped".

"I have not seen Lance for a few years and the first thing I noticed was how tight and lean his frame is. Not an ounce of fat," Jonker said.

"It's very obvious that he had been training hard, getting ready for his comeback."

Jonker said Armstrong would continue to survey the course, just as he had famously done before his Tour de France triumphs.

"Like the true professional he is, he has studied the course and will most likely take a closer look at some of the steeper climbs later this week," Jonker said.

Jonker, himself a five-time Tour de France rider, said Armstrong and O'Grady both looked "in great form".

"They were effortlessly pedalling in a high cadence for several hours through the hills."

Armstrong also touched a few lucky fans on his journey yesterday, including Bernie Hart, who was having a leisurely ride when he spotted Armstrong and the superstar cast.

"I can't believe this," Hart said.

"They're not going to believe this when I get home - I rode with Lance Armstrong."

Caroline_ie

bcmf wrote: »

"They're not going to believe this when I get home - I rode with Lance Armstrong."

... for about 10 seconds :pac:

penfold83

I'm sure it's subject to change but here's the startlist for the Tour Down Under from the TDU website. Nice to Nicholas Roche in there!

Raam

penfold83 wrote: »

I'm sure it's subject to change but here's the startlist for the Tour Down Under from the TDU website. Nice to Nicholas Roche in there!

GO ON NICHOLAS!

mr. pleasant

i'm not to sure about greipel. he can win stages for sure, but i think the hill at the end of stage 2 will be a bit to steep/long for him:

http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/2009/?q=Stage+2+Map

lol, i just realized that i got the profile wrong... the climb is not to much for greipel... but i'd still go for rogers.

looking at michael rogers results in the aussie championships (winner tt + 2nd road race) i'd say he's in pretty good shape and will be the leader for columbia.

penfold83

Columbia rider Adam Hansen was interviewed by CyclingNews yesterday...
The Tour Down Under "should be an exciting one," the 27-year-old said. His team hope to repeat its win from last year, when sprinter André Greipel won four stages on his way to the overall title.
This year, however, Michael Rogers and George Hincapie will be going for the win. Mark Renshaw, Greg Henderson and Bernhard Eisel will help prepare the sprints for Greipel.
"I hope to also play a good support role. I enjoyed helping Greipel last year and I hope to be a part of something special this year too," Hansen said.


Although, it's not Hansen saying that Rogers and Hincapie will be the leaders, it's cyclingnews.



I think I'll be putting a fiver on Rogers...

TinyExplosions

If Hincapie is a team leader, that's who my outside bet's on

Funkyzeit

On TV anywhere? Can't see it (even Highlights) on Eurosport schedule ?

Raam

Funkyzeit wrote: »

On TV anywhere? Can't see it (even Highlights) on Eurosport schedule ?

Skysports, someone said somewhere.

Funkyzeit

Raam wrote: »

Skysports, someone said somewhere.

Sweet. Just seen it on the planner - 04.30 or 08.00 - thanks the lord for sky plus...

Caroline_ie

I am wondering if the OZ tv is going to show a free live stream online lie they do on RAI for and France 2 ...

Can anyone who knows OZ tv check??

Chips Lovell

Picking the winner in these pre-season races is a bit of lottery. Most of the big names are just there for a warm-up. In general, you're talking about:

1. Local riders trying to win on home turf. Five out of the ten winners of the TDU have been aussies. Rogers is worth looking at given that he's coming back from injury (still) and perhaps wants to make an impact. His team mate Adam Hansen is one to watch out for too. He made his big breakthrough last year winning the Australian TT tittle.

2. Young and up and coming riders. If the big guys aren't interested in the win, it's an opportunity for some of the younger guys to make hay. Luis Leon Sanchez's win a few years ago is a case in point.

3. Sprinters. Not to hard a parcours and you find sprinters who win a few stages all of a sudden in the picture for the overall. That's how Greipel won last year.

Armstrong, might, just might go for it if the competition isn't too tough, more for the sake of the press than anything, i.e. coming back with a splahs. . In reality, given his ambitions, its a bit too early in the year for him to be going hard. Scratch that. Just checked the route. No TT.