Your Antepost Picks for 2009

Mont

Right as i like my antepost - had a few nice touches in the past mainly Guineas winners - thought i'd put a thread together

Rip Van Winkle - Derby 14-1 currently. O'Brien mentioned him in his rundown of his current yard as the most likely to be a superstar this year, decent price though he has got Masterofthehorse and a couple more entered.

I backed Mastercraftsman at 33-1 for the 2000 Guineas and while he definitely has a chance his last run was poor, again O'Brien has a few for the race

Kauto Star - 11-4 Gold Cup, what with Denman's delayed return and just over 2 months to Cheltenham this looks like value to me

Got a tip for Western Charmer for the Ballymore Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham - 33-1 currently. Ive backed this on Betfair at various prices from 65 down to 42 - he came second last Sunday behind Mikel Darghenet and was well beaten but still should have an e/w chance come March

Anyone like anything?

careca

I think Kauto could be good value alright at 11/4 or 3/1 as Denman hasn't been out yet this year and what with the heart thing and all that.

Cousin Vinny for the supreme is my banker already. Could be a short Cheltenham for me

I also think 2/1 about any Mullins horse winning the bumper could be great value. He has had some outstanding ones over the last few weeks. If you think that Zaarito (fav) went off at 7/2 last year, then 2/1 about all of Mullin's can't be bad. What do people think?

careca

Meant to say, the problem with O'Brien is he could easily win the Guineas with RVW and if so, he might have something else for the Derby. I was going to do RVW for the Guineas but do you reckon he is Derby potential?

Diggy78

careca wrote: »

Meant to say, the problem with O'Brien is he could easily win the Guineas with RVW and if so, he might have something else for the Derby. I was going to do RVW for the Guineas but do you reckon he is Derby potential?

I have him backed for both, but Derby's the way I assume from the way he shapes. I guess we'll just have to wait and see which of O'Briens goes for the Derrinstown.
I've a few a.p. bets that I'm happy with but every spare penny from now until march will be carried by Kasbah Bliss.

jossnjuice

my max bet of the year is going to character building for the grand national...have already started puttin small each ways on him so far, definitely worth an each way bet, he'l definitiely get around, and he's fresh enough after been off the track for a good while and his two comback runs were a win and third, both over more than three miles so he's the pick for me, could be dougie costello's year!! and probably will do kauto at cheltenham, something about the whole denman heart/national/ blah story irks me a bit.....smells a bit fishy.

lunar racer

whiteoak 6-1.won last year for me at 25-1 and seems to have improved....

NewApproach

lunar racer wrote: »

whiteoak 6-1.won last year for me at 25-1 and seems to have improved....

How can you say she seems to have improved when she hasn't run yet this season?

Frazzled

Diggy78 wrote: »

I have him backed for both, but Derby's the way I assume from the way he shapes. I guess we'll just have to wait and see which of O'Briens goes for the Derrinstown.
I've a few a.p. bets that I'm happy with but every spare penny from now until march will be carried by Kasbah Bliss.

I will be astonished if RVW stays the Derby trip. I have had this argument with quite a few friends who have quoteed dosage indexes etc as a basis for him staying. The fact is that the distaff side of his pedigree is pure speed and his sire has not suggested yet that he is a huge influence for stamina. He seems to take after his dad in that he imparts lots of class but a lot of the progeny take after the dam in terms of stamina requirements. When Sadlers Wells was mated with very speedy mares or with speedy damlines we got horses like King of Kings, In Command and even Barathea (more stamina in his dam side). The dam is by Stravinsky from a speedy family. I think it is strong odds against him staying.

If he wins the Guineas he may go for the Derby, but I would guess that 10f is the max that he will get.

RichieLawlor

NewApproach wrote: »

How can you say she seems to have improved when she hasn't run yet this season?

pehaps you can tell us if Denman has improved also please:P

Kasbah Bliss = bank job

NewApproach

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Kasbah Bliss = bank job

Wouldnt go as far as to say bank job but i would much rather be on this one than punchestowns at a shorter price.

Diggy78

NewApproach wrote: »

Wouldnt go as far as to say bank job but i would much rather be on this one than punchestowns at a shorter price.

Fancy Kasbah big time, think he'll be a shorter price than Punchestowns after the Cleeve hurdle, so chaaaaaarrrggge

k101

Triumph hurdle - ebadiyan

meriwether

This weekend was very useful in distorting the antepost market and throwing up some mis-prices.

I see Sublimity is now 16/1 for the Champion Hurdle, from 10/1.
This is on the back of scoping dirty after running on unsuitable ground.
Super.
I dont think Binocular can be beaten, but Ill take 16/1 that a former winner can be brought back to his best on the day and make the frame.
He's behind Crack Away Jack in the betting.
Thats right, someone thinks Crack Away Jack is better than Sublimity.

The next in Punchestowns.

He lost yesterday after giving 8lb on unsuitable ground.
Neither will be repeated in March. He has been pushed out to 11/4.
Will he beat Big Bucks? Yes. Kasbah Bliss? Don't know.
But 11/4 is a fair shot.

Then follow the plan.
Same situation. Wrong ground, wont be repeated in March.
He defeated Tatenen who had no excuses already. Tanenen is 9/2 - 6/1. FTP is 16/1-25/1.
Go figure.

Colonel Sanders

meriwether wrote: »

The next in Punchestowns.

He lost yesterday after giving 8lb on unsuitable ground.
Neither will be repeated in March. He has been pushed out to 11/4.
Will he beat Big Bucks? Yes. Kasbah Bliss? Don't know.
But 11/4 is a fair shot.

Saturdays result has done nothing to put me off Punchestown. He looked like he'd come on a ton before the race, definately looked far tighter in november. Also yet again travelled very well and wasn't beaten too far giving the winner 8lbs.

Remember Blazing Bailey beating Inglis Drever in 2007 getting the same allowance only for the placings to be tunred around emphatically in March

mdwexford

Big Bucks is being hugely underestimated from the looks of a lot of replies here over the last few days. Punchestowns won a handicap off 139 on the bridle by 3 lengths and gets put up to 160 which was silly imo, then he won a below par Long Walk and all of a sudden hes the second coming of Baracouda.

I think hes hugely overrated and was beaten pretty easily by a better horse on Saturday, Nicholls thinks Big Bucks will be better on good ground also, i dont think 8lbs will turn it around at all and i rate BB as the main danger to KB now.

gscully

mdwexford wrote: »

Big Bucks is being hugely underestimated from the looks of a lot of replies here over the last few days. Punchestowns won a handicap off 139 on the bridle by 3 lengths and gets put up to 160 which was silly imo, then he won a below par Long Walk and all of a sudden hes the second coming of Baracouda.

I think hes hugely overrated and was beaten pretty easily by a better horse on Saturday, Nicholls thinks Big Bucks will be better on good ground also, i dont think 8lbs will turn it around at all and i rate BB as the main danger to KB now.

I'm not disputing you, but I feel Nicholls has many horses who can look impressive on a regular Saturday throughout the season and then get hyped up only to under-perform at Cheltenham when everyone has their best foot forward. IIRC, he had many great hopes last year at Cheltenham, but only Denman and Master Minded did anything for him.

I guess my point is that every trainer will have their horses primed and they'll be pretty much evenly weighted, so Nicholls will have good horses getting beaten.

mike65

2009 Grand National - Nozic
Arkle Trophy - Calgary Bay
Ladbrokes World Hurdle - Fair Along
Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle - Mad Max
Supreme Novices Hurdle - Cockney Trucker

amoss

calgary bay is my nap wat do people think of him?:P

garyc1987

amoss wrote: »

calgary bay is my nap wat do people think of him?:P

very good jumper and much better left handed

hurricane fly is my nap in whichever race he runs in

i also fancy starluck very strongly and noland for the ryanair maybe

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote: »

Big Bucks is being hugely underestimated from the looks of a lot of replies here over the last few days. Punchestowns won a handicap off 139 on the bridle by 3 lengths and gets put up to 160 which was silly imo, then he won a below par Long Walk and all of a sudden hes the second coming of Baracouda.

I think hes hugely overrated and was beaten pretty easily by a better horse on Saturday, Nicholls thinks Big Bucks will be better on good ground also, i dont think 8lbs will turn it around at all and i rate BB as the main danger to KB now.

Punchestowns was not fit saturday, I saw this before the race with my own 2 eyes. His skin was very loose whereas BIg Bucks looked done to the last

Add in an 8lbs concession and its not too hard to still be upbeat about Punchestowns chance. I feel Kasbah Bliss is his biggest challenger and not Big Bucks. Add in the fact Nicholls said in his column a few back that he'd backed Big Bucks for the world hurdle and I really hope he loses

mdwexford

We'll see on the day but i really think he has it all to do to reverse that form, BB is now my main danger to KB, personally i hope neither of them challenge the french horse up the hill.

cson

Nicholls tipped him up for a big run in the Racing Post last Saturday, so you'd have to imagine he really thinks a lot of the horse.

Still think Punjabi has a great shout for the Champion Hurdle. Binocular is a ridiculous price.

May go with another Kauto-Denman reverse forcast in the Gold Cup, depends on how Denman gets on in his reappearence.

whirlingdervish

punchestowns to win a world hurdle at 11/4 is an antepost lay on what we have seen so far... dunguib for the bumper at 7s (although alot of big prices gone now) should not be overlooked. Even with all Mullins firepower this one will be a tough nut to crack.....

corny

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Punchestowns was not fit saturday, I saw this before the race with my own 2 eyes. His skin was very loose whereas BIg Bucks looked done to the last

Nicky Henderson said as much after race. Chomba Womba and Punchestowns will step up a good deal from what they showed on Saturday last.

meriwether

Celestial Halo beat Osana by about 3l last saturday.

Considering the change in weights on CH day, and Osana possibly needing a run, would it be a big surprise if Osana turned the tables? No.

Osana was second last year. He can expect to beat Celestial Halo by a length.

Binocular kicked the sh1t out of CH the last day. Not a by a length. By handstands.

He can expect to beat last years second by plenty in hand.

6/4 is a gift from god.

mdwexford

meriwether wrote: »

Celestial Halo beat Osana by about 3l last saturday.

Considering the change in weights on CH day, and Osana possibly needing a run, would it be a big surprise if Osana turned the tables? No.

Osana was second last year. He can expect to beat Celestial Halo by a length.

Disagree, he wont reverse that form in the Champion Hurdle imo.

meriwether wrote: »

Binocular kicked the sh1t out of CH the last day. Not a by a length. By handstands.

He can expect to beat last years second by plenty in hand.

6/4 is a gift from god.

Agree.

Warper

Binocular @ 6-4 is a crazy prize or more like you would be crazy to back that now. Its 6 weeks to Chel - anything can happen, the ground could be anything or the horse might be ill, anything. 6-4 Antepost is madness. In saying that obv. he looks high class but it is Cheltenham, after all he was fav last year and got turned over.

Sublimity has a great chance if he gets his ground and he would be a cert of an e/w chance if its good ground. 16-1

Had a punt on Ainama for the Supreme @14-1, he looks good.

mdwexford

lol he was co fav of 3 at 8/1 with another 3 horses at 17/2, not exactly a warm order.

Warper

mdwexford wrote: »

lol he was co fav of 3 at 8/1 with another 3 horses at 17/2, not exactly a warm order.

Ya but the point i am making is he was beaten and that 6-4 is a ridiculous price at this stage- i mean have you actually backed it at this price?

mdwexford

No because he wont be shorter on the day, as you say some people will think of last year and this not getting up the hill rubbish. I will back him at 6/4 on the day for sure, it will be a very fair price.

Warper

mdwexford wrote: »

No because he wont be shorter on the day, as you say some people will think of last year and this not getting up the hill rubbish. I will back him at 6/4 on the day for sure, it will be a very fair price.

Ya so you agree that 6-4 now is a rubbish price, that is what i was saying - the thread is Ante-post picks for 2009 not wait and see on the day picks for 2009.

mdwexford

Ha i wouldnt go that far, thats the risk of antepost but all the antepost value is certainly gone on Binocular, i wouldnt be surprised to see him being 7/4 or bigger on the day.

goonruby

I am a layer of binocular at 13/8 / 6/4.. Dont see any value at that price and I think will be more of 7/4 shot on the day.

My antepost bet for 2009 is Jumbo Rio in the Triumph hurdle.

Was 7 lengths better than Oliver Brady's Ebadiyan on his first start over hurdles and was giving Brady's horse 7 pound.

Jumbo Rio is available at 46 to win & 9 to place on betfair while Ebadiyan is as short as 11.5.

Think this horse is AMAZING value!!

mark renton

NewApproach wrote: »

How can you say she seems to have improved when she hasn't run yet this season?

Some of the horses I've backed could have improved by not running

Plentyofice

Diamond harry. Even now I still think 4/1 is gift. I have alot on him at both 10's and 8's and a bit at 12's . I know it's a hot race but the horse is a freak. Doesn't know how to lose. Was given the option to throw it away at cheltenham 2 weeks ago (and looks a tad sickly) and still won.:eek::D:eek::D

RichieLawlor

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Kasbah Bliss = bank job

.

bit of a bogey

Kasbah bliss was impressive today alright but I was just as happy with voy por ustedes. Hes back to his best and is guaranteed to love 2m5 at cheltenham! He could well be my banker!

mdwexford

Lot of possible festival winners this weekend with Kasbah Bliss, Whiteoak, Voy Por Ustedes, Cousin Vinny and Cooldine all putting in good performances.

I agree VPU could well be my banker of the meeting also.

meriwether

I've backed Punchestowns, but dont expect to be collecting after KB's performance on Saturday.

Whiteoak will be short for the David Nicholson.

Neither Punjabi nor Ashkazar will be lifting the cup.

I must say, I was taken by Pandorama's performance on Sunday.

I'd imagine CV would have turned him over, but Pandorama looks like a smashing chaser in the making.

If I was Meade, Id stick him in the 3m novice hurdle on Friday. I doubt he has the toe for the supreme or the Ballymore, but he might be able to galop the rest of them down in the Albert Bartlett.

cson

There seems to be this new phenonmen amongst jockeys to start looking around them when they feel they've a lot underneath them. I saw it last Sunday with Big Zeb and again this Sunday with Cousin Vinny. I find it incredible that both Matt O'Connor and Patrick Mullins were checking for dangers so early, before even jumping the last. Now the horses may have fallen anyway which makes my point neither nor there but to me it seems to be pure showboating and nothing more. Why check for dangers with so much of the race left to run? Now I've never ridden in competitive races or anything like that but from hunting experiences I know all I'm trying to do is trying to get the stride right before jumping the obstacle and not looking around.

As you can guess, I had both horses backed!

/rant

amoss

think hurricane fly is a classy horse but have a feeling he wont go to cheltenham, i think were ever cousin vinny runs he wins, hes that good,any one think the same?

Juan Pablo

Ebaziyan 50-1 w/o Binocular is a nice price for the CH, won well today in Leopardstown.

amoss

yea i like ebaziyan and that bet seems value, must say i have some word for cappa blue in the foxhunters chase am told he will take alot of beating