Advice on Large bet placed

willis

Hey,
I placed a bet before the Prem League started with Bet365. The bet was as follows:
Backed Adebayor to be Arsenal's top PREMIER LEAGUE goalscorer for 1k at evens

I thought these were crackin odds,considering van persie has never been prolific and is injured a lot, eduardo out for most of season, and adebayor banged in 27 PL goals last year and there was no reason to suggest he wouldnt do similar.

Anyways adebayor has been horrific this season and only scored 7, van persie has 8. Also van persie takes pens now(Ade did last season), so this bet is a little too close for comfort.

Ive been racking my brain to see if theres anyway i can lay off some of this bet. There is goal scorer match bets on betfair, and adebayor is 4/9 vs van persie who is 4/5, but there is no liquidity at all on this market at present.

Can anyone help,any other sites maybe offering a similar market in play? Or can anyone else think of anything other than to just let this thing ride lol!I think adebayor in particular will miss fabregas, his pace means fab cud slide him in a lot last season, whereas RVP's goals all seem to come out of nothing or from freekick/peno, so thats main reason why im looking to get out and limit liability if possible!

Cheers

L1m1tless

Contact Paddy Powers they will give you odds on almost anything.

Paddy Irishman

Just an idea off the top of my head. You could lay Adebayor in the "To Score Anytime" market for Arsenals remaining 18 league matches to try and reduce the liability. He usually starts around Evens or shorter in this market. The problem though is if both Adebayor and Van Persie score in a match then you take a hit twice i.e your liability on the ante-post stays the same and you're paying out on the "To Score Anytime" market.

Famous45

The original price of evens was the correct price, you didn't get any extra value. At the current market of 4/9 you should be smiling pretty as it's prob still 50/50 between Ade & RVP for top gs.

I wouldn't worry too much to be honest, in fact, as I said you should be smiling a little, the time will come when you can trade out if RVP goes a few clear.

20 Times 20 Times

I would buy that bet off you .

whatsupdoc?

I think that was an awful bet at the start of the season.
I would have layed it at that before the start of the season.
they could have signed anybody (they still can in January), he could get injured.
Evs for a 9 month bet is not good value on my books.
The only way you could lay it off or any part is to do the opposite bet.
I can't remember seeing anybody offering odds on that one.
No point in backing RVP as well, it could be Gallas or anybody else on the team even someone not joined yet.

You could lay Adebayor in the "To Score Anytime" market for Arsenals remaining 18 league matches to try and reduce the liability. He usually starts around Evens or shorter in this market

Unlikely but lets say
he scores in every match and you have to pay out each game.
Arsenal sign a new striker who also scores in each game but ends up with more goals then Ade.
I'd sit on it and wait to see if they sign anybody first.

Ideal scenario:

Ask Betfair to set the market up for you.

willis

I think it was good value at start of season,I backed it 2days before 1st game, arsenal were never really in the market for a striker.

The bet was placed wit bet365 so no in-running. Also, betfair have this market in play right now, but basically no liquidity so can't really lay there.

Sarge if u are serious I will give it consideration and let u know

Cheers lads

semibluff

will gives a shout if your stuck with it.


what happened to havin a pair of cajunas?

lostdoggy999

willis wrote: »

Hey,
I placed a bet before the Prem League started with Bet365. The bet was as follows:
Backed Adebayor to be Arsenal's top PREMIER LEAGUE goalscorer for 1k at evens

I thought these were crackin odds,considering van persie has never been prolific and is injured a lot, eduardo out for most of season, and adebayor banged in 27 PL goals last year and there was no reason to suggest he wouldnt do similar.

Anyways adebayor has been horrific this season and only scored 7, van persie has 8. Also van persie takes pens now(Ade did last season), so this bet is a little too close for comfort.

Ive been racking my brain to see if theres anyway i can lay off some of this bet. There is goal scorer match bets on betfair, and adebayor is 4/9 vs van persie who is 4/5, but there is no liquidity at all on this market at present.

Can anyone help,any other sites maybe offering a similar market in play? Or can anyone else think of anything other than to just let this thing ride lol!I think adebayor in particular will miss fabregas, his pace means fab cud slide him in a lot last season, whereas RVP's goals all seem to come out of nothing or from freekick/peno, so thats main reason why im looking to get out and limit liability if possible!

Cheers

avoid football and back hurricane flyer and binocular in Cheltenham in March and you will make your money. remember this mail in March.

Bluetonic

lostdoggy999 wrote: »

avoid football and back hurricane flyer and binocular in Cheltenham in March and you will make your money. remember this mail in March.

If you can't get a price on Hurricane Flyer you could try backing Hurricane Fly, but then Mullins is still undecided what race he will run in as he tries to keep him and Mikael D'Haguenet apart. There is no value in Binocular either for the Champion Hurdle, it's not a straight forward race for a 5 year old.

cson

lostdoggy999 wrote: »

avoid football and back hurricane flyer and binocular in Cheltenham in March and you will make your money. remember this mail in March.

I'll remember this post in March if you'd kindly elaborate why Hurricane Fly and Binocular represent that good an investment?

Chucky the tree

Stick up the amount you want to lay on the betfair then go onto it's forums and troll it for a bit saying how you think Addie has no chance of getting top scorer etc etc. It'll help increase traffic.



edit - dont forget to start you thread with "Full money bank job, go all in on a CANT LOSE bet".

wixfjord

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Stick up the amount you want to lay on the betfair then go onto it's forums and troll it for a bit saying how you think Addie has no chance of getting top scorer etc etc. It'll help increase traffic.



edit - dont forget to start you thread with "Full money bank job, go all in on a CANT LOSE bet".

Dont forget MONEY TREE aswell! :P

hotspur

Van Persie will tear / pull / break something as usual and be out for an extended period like all Dutch players like to do since they are too laid back to bother warming up properly or keep running to avoid hamstring pulls or something. Still seems like a decent bet for the moment.

soundsham

i'd let it run imo you still have a very live bet, lot of games to go i'd be happy to have it

higgo1888

if they manage to buy arshavin from zenit, i would definatly keep hold of that bet, he would be a great foil for ade, hang on and see wot happens until the transfer window closes

roryc

Solution is simple, quick flight to London with a baseball bat to... ahem... 'take care' of Van Persie. Once he's out of the way Ade is a shoe in for top PL scorer. Enjoy the €2k mate

soundsham

what way is your bet going or did you lay it off some way?

jacool

Adebayor 10 Van Persie 9 Bendtner 6 Nasri 6
so now the 1/1 money shot looks like just marginally better than that, but as the OP said, VP is now taking spotters. This could be a nerve wracking end of season. If the OP is a Gooner then what will he say when VP is clear on goal against Man Yoo/Chelsea or Liverpool in the league ? ? ?

careca

lostdoggy999 wrote: »

avoid football and back hurricane flyer and binocular in Cheltenham in March and you will make your money. remember this mail in March.

If only he'd listened to this lad

willis

Lol, yeah its pretty tense right now! and with arsenal still in champs lge/fa cup, wenger likes to rotate a lot, i can see bendtner playin a lot of the prem games as arsenal have basically sewn up the 4th place. Also, arshavin cant play in champs, so wenger mite play him in behind bedntner for prem.

Its a mental scenario, adebayor was out for 6weeks recent enough and RVP did sweet fa, then ade came back,banged in 2,and rvp got injured! But now they r both back, 1 goal in it, could go either way, as wenger likes to rest the both of them a lot. I presume i get half odds if its a tie?

CMON ADE!!!

P.s - Im a pool fan,i would take winning the prem over winning this bet, but the dream scenario is adebayor scorin a late winner vs utd in 2nd last game to go 4 clear of RVP and to put the title in pool's hands for final prem game!

Morzadec

willis wrote: »

P.s - Im a pool fan,i would take winning the prem over winning this bet, but the dream scenario is adebayor scorin a late winner vs utd in 2nd last game to go 4 clear of RVP and to put the title in pool's hands for final prem game!

You'd be buying all the drinks for Liverpool fans if that happened!

Have to say that I think your bet will come through because even if Bendtner does play a lot of games he won't be good enough to get that many goals. VP will take the priority when it comes to resting because he struggles to play consecutive games. And Arshavin I feel is too much of a playmaker and too far behind to take it.

Also I think at the start of the season, without knowing that Adebayor would be injured for so long Evs was a brilliant price. If I had the funds to tie up for that long and knew about it i would have certainly backed it.

Best of luck anyway, I wouldn't try laying this off (maybe consider laying Ad to score at anytime in games that VP isn't playing). Let it roll....

semibluff

will, ill take half your bet off ya if you want. i like the bet - gl with it.

scull2009

good luck with it. just read the whole thread.. interesting

scull2009

and now you have to look out for arshavin the c**t, not that i like liverpool or arsenal but was gonna bet the mortgage on tonights game for liverpool to win, glad i only had a bit on it

dundalkbhoy

scull2009 wrote: »

and now you have to look out for arshavin the c**t, not that i like liverpool or arsenal but was gonna bet the mortgage on tonights game for liverpool to win, glad i only had a bit on it

alot of fingers burnt in tonights liverpool game they were backed from 1/1 in the weekend to 8/11 tonight:(

Morzadec

Morzadec wrote: »

And Arshavin I feel is too much of a playmaker and too far behind to take it.

I formally retract my statement!

Squeaky bum time now....

soundsham

hope you kept the bet, i've been keeping an eye out for the hell of it,looking good once van persie does'nt score,
good luck at the weekend

thewools

Adebayor - 10 league goals
Bendtner & Van Persie - both with 9 league goals

Against stoke the weekend too so I reckon there will be goals. Plus I have a feeling Van Persie and Bendtner will both be up front too at the weekend!

semibluff

good luck will!

okidoki987

Interesting thoughts.
Arsenal have nothing to play for so I'd guess a large numbers of changes will happen.
Ade will probably be gone next year, Bendtner must also be a possible departure, AW might look at starting Vela?

willis

Lol, its pretty nerve racking,managed to sell half the bet before utd game which helps. who knows what side wenger will play, i can see ade on the bench, van persie also,i think bednter could start. They also dont like stoke aftr the previous game so they will be goin fully out for win i feel

If it gets beat by bendnter then i wil be fuming...any1 see his 2 goals vs pompey recently?? was shockin!

itl make the final day interesting anyhow!

semibluff

i think he'l play vela and eduardo up front against stoke. Normally puts the kids out when has nothing to play for

ErinGoBrath

semibluff wrote: »

i think he'l play vela and eduardo up front against stoke. Normally puts the kids out when has nothing to play for

Eduardo underwent ankle surgery yesterday so won't be in the squad this weekend.

thewools

willis wrote: »

Lol, its pretty nerve racking,managed to sell half the bet before utd game which helps. who knows what side wenger will play, i can see ade on the bench, van persie also,i think bednter could start. They also dont like stoke aftr the previous game so they will be goin fully out for win i feel

If it gets beat by bendnter then i wil be fuming...any1 see his 2 goals vs pompey recently?? was shockin!

itl make the final day interesting anyhow!

Squad for Stoke game:

Arsenal (from): Fabianski, Sagna, Toure, Djourou, Gibbs, Arshavin, Song, Fabregas, Eboue, Walcott, van Persie, Mannone, Vela, Ramsey, Silvestre, Bendtner, Denilson, Diaby.

No Ade....

SilentAssassin

Two van persie goals in the first half....yikes! Adebayor not playing. Hard luck man!

willis

yeah adebayor out injured again(although i guarantee if these were must win games he would be fit),hes been terrible this season even when he wasnt injured.stoke didnt realy help at all with some of their defending in the 1st half, thems the breaks i suppose

soundsham

unlucky