When will Tiger lose his no 1 Spot in world rankings?

durkadurka

I've been doing some sums and I reckon that, as Tiger remains inactive, his world ranking points average is going to decline as shown below over the next few months.

05/01/2009 11.65846
12/01/2009 11.35439633
19/01/2009 11.05033265
26/01/2009 10.74664398
02/02/2009 10.45633655
09/02/2009 10.17066663
16/02/2009 9.8849967
23/02/2009 9.599415575
02/03/2009 9.31616545
09/03/2009 9.032915325
16/03/2009 8.74971195
23/03/2009 8.468430975
30/03/2009 8.20691

The current top ten from www.owgr.com is
1 Tiger Woods, USA 11.66
2 Sergio Garcia, Esp 7.99
3 Phil Mickelson, USA 6.87
4 Padraig Harrington, Irl 6.83
5 Vijay Singh, Fji 6.63
6 Robert Karlsson, Swe 5.02
7 Camilo Villegas, Col 4.82
8 Henrik Stenson, Swe 4.68
9 Ernie Els, Zaf 4.66
10 Lee Westwood, Eng 4.66



Nobody knows when he will return but people seem to think he will come back in March to give him a tournament to warm up before the Masters.
This means there is a window of a couple of weeks in March for someone like Padraig, Sergio, Phil or Vijay to take his number 1 spot, at least for a couple of weeks.

I suppose there isn't much glory in only being number one simply because the REAL number 1 hasn't hit a ball for 8 months, but its still an honour that very few players have had. It's quite a tribute to Tiger that he could retain his number one spot for so long while inactive.
The other players who have neen Number 1 are LANGER,SEVE, NORMAN, FALDO,WOOSNAM,COUPLES,PRICE,LEHMAN,ELS,DUVAL,SINGH

I reckon a normal tournament win in the US is worth about 1 point onto a player's average, so if Sergio or Padraig could win one in March it gives them a real chance to get the number 1 slot.

kingshankly

when he retires

kagni

There are two WGC events before the Masters, if one of Mickelson, Garcia or Harrington wins they would probably pass Woods before the Masters starts.

durkadurka

Yep the WGC events are worth about 50% more than a regular US tour event, and if tiger doesn’t play, or doesn’t play well, they have a real chance, although they might require a few decent finishes in one or two other events

In fact this could be the only chance any of them get to be number 1 for the next 5 years or so, assuming Tiger’s injury doesn’t recur. It should all come to a head in early march.

My bet is tiger won’t play the world matchplay in late Feb, because it’s a bit of a lottery – he prefers the 72 hole format where class will usually prevail. So the CA championship in mid march could be the target. Sergio is ahead of the posse a bit and could get there earlier – he’s in very good form too

I think Padraig skipped the CA last year……something to do with wanting to play the 2 weeks prior to a major

kagni

durkadurka wrote: »

In fact this could be the only chance any of them get to be number 1 for the next 5 years or so, assuming Tiger’s injury doesn’t recur.

It will take a while to get back to full strength and if he comes back too early he could risk aggravating the injury. Ernie Els had a similar injury to Tiger in 2005 and still hasn't got close to the level he was at prior to the injury.
In 2004 he was playing fantastic golf and took the number 1 ranking spot for a while.
I think it might be the end of this year or 2010 before Tiger is fully recovered, that could see more than just the players mentioned above pass him in the World rankings.

durkadurka

Looks like Sergio will be within range of Tiger by the world matchplay the week after next - Sergio would have to win I think - and that asssumes Tiger won't play.

Padraig's form hasn't been great lately so I don't think he'll get the number one spot. He'd need to win twice at least in the next few weeks.

It all comes down to when tiger comes back - it sounds like his practice is going well - but would he come back to play up to 7 rounds in the matchplay - I dont think so...

Current top ten is:

1 Tiger Woods, USA 9.90
2 Sergio Garcia, Esp 7.85
3 Padraig Harrington, Irl 6.36
4 Vijay Singh, Fji 6.26
5 Phil Mickelson, USA 6.21
6 Henrik Stenson, Swe 5.09
7 Robert Karlsson, Swe 5.06
8 Geoff Ogilvy, Aus 5.03
9 Camilo Villegas, Col 4.88
10 Kenny Perry, USA 4.81

Best guess is in early march there might be one or 2 tournaments where Sergio has a chance.....

durkadurka

Yes I am a statto nerd.

Looks like the Bay hill in 2 weeks will be a straightforward shootout between Tiger and Phil for number 1.

Tiger's average will be down to about 8.6 by the end of the tournament if he doesn't perfiorm, and Phil's is about 8.62 now.

So whoever does better will be number 1.

Tiger has won loads of times at Bay Hill, but Phil is in great form.

I think my money's on Tiger to be on his game by then. Actually ended up 9th at the weekend.

durkadurka

from the BBC



Mickelson set to overtake Woods





Tiger Woods could see his position as the world number one taken by Phil Mickelson ahead of the US Masters.
The gap between the two has gone down to only 0.2 points in recent weeks.
Woods, who is back in action after eight months out following knee surgery, plays in this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational in Bay Hill.
If he fails to finish in the top two, Mickelson, who is not in action this week, would have a chance to leapfrog Woods at next week's Houston Open. Woods has been world number one for the last 198 weeks, taking over from Vijay Singh and has been top of the standings for a total of 540 weeks in his career. Mickelson has never filled the top spot in the rankings.

durkadurka

I didn't think this question would become relevant for a long long time again, but I suspect by around US Open time or possibly Players Championship time at a push, if he's not back playing , then his No 1 ranking could be under threat.

This is what his ranking will be , week by week, assuming he doesn't play, according to my slightly iffy calculations.

20/12/2009 14.93
27/12/2009 14.66
03/01/2010 14.39
10/01/2010 14.12
17/01/2010 13.85
24/01/2010 13.57
31/01/2010 13.32
07/02/2010 13.07
14/02/2010 12.82
21/02/2010 12.57
28/02/2010 12.34
07/03/2010 12.10
14/03/2010 11.87
21/03/2010 11.66
28/03/2010 11.45
04/04/2010 11.24
11/04/2010 11.03 Masters
18/04/2010 10.83
25/04/2010 10.64
02/05/2010 10.45
09/05/2010 10.25 Players
16/05/2010 10.06
23/05/2010 9.86
30/05/2010 9.67
06/06/2010 9.48 Memorial
13/06/2010 9.28
20/06/2010 9.12 Us Open
27/06/2010 8.95
04/07/2010 8.79
11/07/2010 8.62
18/07/2010 8.45 The Open
25/07/2010 8.29
01/08/2010 8.12
08/08/2010 7.96

With Mickelson in great form, having found his putter again, and having a good record in the Masters, he might be able to mount another challenge.

If his ranking doesn't change, he passes Tiger around the British open mark, but he might be within range much sooner than that if his good form continues.

ant043

what difference does it make. If he loses it during his period of inactivity big deal. The majority of golf fans know that he is the best player in the world. A stupid world ranking isn't going to change that.

durkadurka

Because it matters to him, that's why.

And its his fault/choice that he's not playing

PhilipMarlowe

ant043 wrote: »

what difference does it make. If he loses it during his period of inactivity big deal. The majority of golf fans know that he is the best player in the world. A stupid world ranking isn't going to change that.

If tiger never returns then, big deal too to that. Everyone knows he's the best so why bother play at all?

RD77

I'd be very suprised if he misses the Masters in April. Supposing that he does come back then, I doubt anyone will overtake his spot in the rankings

wackjob

RD77 wrote: »

I'd be very suprised if he misses the Masters in April. Supposing that he does come back then, I doubt anyone will overtake his spot in the rankings

when will he have to declare for the master in april?

ant043

This leave of absence is just to just try and rebuild his image. He'll stay off till probably bay hill and use that as a warmup for the masters. I really hope i'm right cause no major would be the same without him.

durkadurka

Golf will be poorer without him thats for sure.

Who knows whats going on with him though.
We dont know if there's anything behind this drug stuff, if he's on loads of painkillers for the knee, if he's having some sort of breakdown. Its amazing that he hasn't been seen for weeks on end.

So i don't think we can just assume he's picking his moment to return.

To be honest, although i can't say i'm impressed with his behaviour i feel a bit sorry for him because he never said he was a saint.

Pisco Sour

ant043 wrote: »

This leave of absence is just to just try and rebuild his image. He'll stay off till probably bay hill and use that as a warmup for the masters. I really hope i'm right cause no major would be the same without him.

Majors existed pre-1997 as far as I'm aware...

ant043

04072511 wrote: »

Majors existed pre-1997 as far as I'm aware...

And i'm not old enough to remember them smart ass. Happy christmas to you too.

Pisco Sour

ant043 wrote: »

And i'm not old enough to remember them smart ass. Happy christmas to you too.

Fair enough. Perhaps if you said "I really hope i'm right cause no major would be the same for me without him." then that would have cleared up any confusion. Many of us remember major golf championships before Tiger and they were just as exciting and dramatic.

ant043

04072511 wrote: »

Fair enough. Perhaps if you said "I really hope i'm right cause no major would be the same for me without him." then that would have cleared up any confusion. Many of us remember major golf championships before Tiger and they were just as exciting and dramatic.

Can you seriously do everyone a favour including myself and put me on your ignore list.

f22

ant043 wrote: »

Can you seriously do everyone a favour including myself and put me on your ignore list.

It's you that's probably going to appear on ignore lists, if you think a game that has existed for centuries and has had countless great champions is going to become meaningless with the temporary loss of Tiger Woods you need a serious reality check.

ant043

f22 wrote: »

It's you that's probably going to appear on ignore lists, if you think a game that has existed for centuries and has had countless great champions is going to become meaningless with the temporary loss of Tiger Woods you need a serious reality check.

And where did i use the word meaningless ? I said imo golf wouldn't be the same. I never would say that it was meaningless. Stop putting words into my mouth. This is the last time i'm going to post in a tiger woods thread so can we end this now. goodbye

Tenth Planet

End of next year me thinks

durkadurka

If mickelson win the players this week and tiger is outside the top 5, the mickelson becomes world number 1.

Www.owgr.com

durkadurka

Old thread recycled....

Looks like Kaymer will have to wait for a week or two to get to number 1. He's well off the pace in spain and needs a huge weekend to get to joint 2nd and overtake woods and westwood.

Plenty of big tourneys coming up though. The lead could change hands several times.

Its remarkable that its taken almost a full year since Tiger's little motoring accident for him to lose top spot. Much of it down to mickelson's loss of form (or arthritis maybe), and Westwood's injury.