2009 Cycling Predictions

Slideshowbob

Who do ye fancy for Tour de France, Giro, Vuelta this year?

I wonder what odds the bookies would give for a Irish stage winner in one of the major tours - I reckon we have a great chance this year with Martin, Roche and Deignan bound to be riding at least one each:).

Chips Lovell

Contador for the Tour and Vuelta. Basso for the Giro.

kincsem

Slideshowbob wrote: »

Who do ye fancy for Tour de Frane, Giro, Vuelta this year?

I wonder what odds the bookies would give for a Irish stage winner in one of the major tours - I reckon we have a great chance this year with Martin, Roche and Deignan bound to be riding at least one each:).

Based on Irish wins in the Tour de France - stages won in eight years from 1963 to 2008 - 8 in 46 years, or 8/38, or in bookmaker terms 9/2.

Then with three tours it is 9/2 /3 or in bookmaker terms odds of 6/4.

A big factor is how many get into professional teams, and then into that team's grand tour team. Of course they might offer bigger odds because they are not already proven performers. Against that view is the fact that stage wins in big tours often reflect the politics of the peleton, and are not directly related to the quality of the rider. Poor riders are often let get away.

Bookmakers would spend a few hundred Euro on staff costs to work out the odds so they would not bother for someone betting a tenner, or nil when they hear the odds.

kincsem

Fwiw I backed Oscar Pereiro Sio to win the 2006 TDF at 180/1. :mad:

Hermy

I'm drunk so excuse the bad grammer but I predict drugs, drugs and more drugs!
Sorry.:(

Caroline_ie

Armstong to ... win the tour of down under :pac:

TinyExplosions

Lance for the Giro, Contador for the Tour, and I'm not 100% on the Vuelta, possibly Basso.

(I am taking Lance as a wildcard to win the Tour as well though, just in case! )

niceonetom

there will be blood...




















...doping

oh, and lance will accend bodily into heaven upon a winged pony trek having won an 8th tour, the giro, the vuelta, the palme d'or, and the nobel prize for awesomeness.

Chips Lovell

OK, so who'll volunteer their predictions for MSR, Paris Roubaix, Tour of Flanders and LBL?

Raam

MSR: Freire or Boonen
Paris Roubaix: Magnus or Cancellara
Flanders: Boonen or Cav
LBL: Valverde or Cunego

Chips Lovell

Raam wrote: »

MSR: Freire or Boonen

Nice choices. My vote is Bennati this year since Boonen will be concentrating on the cobbles.

Raam wrote: »

Paris Roubaix: Magnus or Cancellara

Ballan. Now he's got the stripes, he's got the confidence. I think Big Magnus will always be a one hit wonder for this race. Cancellera meanwhile is saying he wants to win Flanders. I know, wtf?

Raam wrote: »

Flanders: Boonen or Cav

Boonen, back with avengence. Cav can't climb those hills.

Raam wrote: »

LBL: Valverde or Cunego

Can't argue with those choices. Tintin for third.

Raam

Oh, and I'm going A. Schleck for the tour.

Funkyzeit

Conto for the Tour and Vuelta - Giro will be IMO a fascinating one - Going for Sastre...

Rebellin for MSR,

Roubaix - Defo Tom - back with a bang

Flanders, Ballan

LBL - Niboli

After seeing his attacks in the Vuelta, Roche might have an outside chance of a podium finish in one the Classics.

Expect Martin to have a great season aswell - barring sickness, will beat Lance in Dublin/Cork finish in ToI...:D

Chips Lovell

Raam wrote: »

Oh, and I'm going A. Schleck for the tour.

Ooooh. Risky choice. I like it.

Funkyzeit

Somehow we have made thread of the day....

2009 The Chinese Year of Cycling...

RobFowl

Robin Seymour for a 16th cyclocross title in Lurgan tomorrow
David O Loughlin for a win in a Track world cup and top 4 in the world champs (indivicual pursuit)
Nicholas Roche to win a grand tour stage
Sam Bennet for a Medal in 2012

And in less important races
McEwan for MSR
Tom "Snow" Boonen for Roubaix
An outside one but maybe Cavendish for Ghent Wevelgem
Lance Armstrong for LBL or Amstel
Giro based on past history some Italian with a dodgy reputation who will get a ban later on in the season but retain the title
Tour has to be Contador

shapez

Dan Martin & Nicholas Roche for stage wins in a grand tour.

Cancellara for Paris/Roubaix

Armstrong for the Giro d'Itailia
Contodor for the Tour De France
Statre for the Vuelta

Raam

Raam wrote: »

MSR: Freire or Boonen
Paris Roubaix: Magnus or Cancellara
Flanders: Boonen or Cav
LBL: Valverde or Cunego

Having just read this, I'd like to remove Cav from my prediction

I've always dreamed of Flanders and Roubaix. Obviously Flanders is too hard for me, and it's too much, coming in the same week as Gent-Wevelgem.

It's still too hard for me. I definitely want to ride it in the future, but it probably won't be next year.

mr. pleasant

hi there,

my first post here, and already including tons of wisdom...

msr: break last year, its gonna be a fast guy this year: peta or bennati
flanders: boonen
roubaix: cance
lbl: valverde

giro: basso
tour: contador
vuelta: mr. leipheimers turn this year (poor guy allowed to win something at last...)

sprinter of the year: cav, he will win anything with a mass sprint in it (except msr)

dark horse of the year: the younger schleck, andy

i don't believe in the BIG armstrong comeback, ie don't see him win a grand tour

i also don't believe in another big drug-bust, because after years of this stuff they need some time to recover and will hush up everything.

E@gle.

Im a fan of armstrong but can't see him win anything this year

Flanders- Allesandro Ballan
Paris-Roubaix- Cancerella or Boonen

Giro- Ivan Basso
Tour- Contador and evans 2nd again
Vuelta- would like to see valverde win this

Wonder how Cavendish will get on in the tour this year of Boonen is there

I would like to see Dan Martin or Nichola Roche win something.
Can't see Deginan win anything maybe he may get picked for the tour as a Domistique for Sastre

RobFowl

RobFowl wrote: »

Robin Seymour for a 16th cyclocross title in Lurgan tomorrow

SPRINT SECURES SIXTEENTH TITLE FOR SEYMOUR
By Shane Stokes
Jan 4, 2009,

[EMAIL="?subject=SPRINT%20SECURES%20SIXTEENTH%20TITLE%20FOR%20SEYMOUR&body=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishcycling.com%2Fpublish%2Fnews%2Fart_3511.shtml"]Email this article[/EMAIL]

© Shane Stokes Multiple Irish champion Robin Seymour today scooped a remarkable sixteenth national cyclo-cross crown, outsprinting Conor McConvey at the end of the seven lap contest in Lurgan Park.

Seymour (Team WORC) and McConvey (McConvey Cycles/FELT International) were regarded as the clear pre-race favourites and so it turned out, with the duo breaking clear of the rest of the field on the opening lap and slugging out the remainder of the race between them.

37 year old Seymour and 19 year old McConvey were very evenly matched on the fast, flowing course, both unable to open up a decisive lead over the other. The result came down to the final 100 metres, where the Wicklow man had enough speed and determination to get the better of his younger rival.

Third place today went to Newry rider Conor Campbell, with Seymour’s team-mate Richie Felle in fourth. The latter had been running third until the final lap but lost time due to a puncture. IMBRC’s Paul O’Reilly was next home, sewing up the junior title with his fifth place overall, while Glen Kinning (Castereagh) completed the top six. Aidan McDonald (Apollo) was seventh and first veteran. Francine Meehan (Tullamore CC) was best of the women, and the efforts of Seymour, Felle and Dave Gill earned the team title for WORC.

The race was run off in pleasant conditions, and the only significant mud was encountered in the drainage ditch section. It also had two plank obstacles, one of which was on a hill, but these did little to slow down the top riders.

As expected after the non-start of 2008 champion Roger Aiken, the battle for gold today was all about two competitors. McConvey is seen as the up and coming off-road rider and is tipped by many for a big future, while Seymour is a triple Olympian who had taken fifteen cross titles in seventeen years, as well as fifteen successive mountain bike championships. He has now added yet another medal to that stunning haul.

---

National cyclo-cross championships, Lurgan Park:

1, Robin Seymour (Team WORC)
2, Conor McConvey (McConvey Cycles/FELT International)
3, Conor Campbell (Newry)
4, Richie Felle (Team WORC)
5, Paul O’Reilly (IMBRC)
6, Glen Kinning (Castlereagh)
7, Aidan McDonald (Apollo) – vets champion

Team: Team Worc (Seymour/ Felle/ Dave Gill)

Junior:

1, Paul O’Reilly (IMBRC)
2, Matt Adair (Banbridge)

First woman: Francine Meehan (Tullamore CC)
First veteran: Aidan McDonald (Apollo)

Raam

I dunno about Levi winning the Vuelta as I think Contador is going to want it again. I'd like to think Valverde could make a decent stab at it and I'd rather he won it than Contador.

As for the Giro, Basso seems like a good bet. I don't think Sastre can win it. I hope Armstrong doesn't win it, but I'd like to see a good fight.

mr. pleasant

Raam wrote: »

I dunno about Levi winning the Vuelta as I think Contador is going to want it again. I'd like to think Valverde could make a decent stab at it and I'd rather he won it than Contador.
.

hmm i think contadors main interest will be the tour. having armstrong in the team he will have to focus on it. also, with armstrong already in the giro levy can only go for the vuelta. i think he will be allowed to do because he supported contador last year, where he could have gone to win it himself.

last year giro and vuelta have been special for contador because of the triple (all three grand tours) within 2 years (first rider to have acieved that?)

this year he wants the tour and nothing else.

Chips Lovell

Cancellara said he's concentrating on Flanders this year.

If Levi Leipheimer ever wins a Grand Tour, it'll be against one sorry, sub-par lineup. He's one of the most boring wheelsuckers ever to sign on at a start line and makes Cadel Evans look like Claudio Chiapucci.

Contador is already making noises about doing the Vuelta this year as well as the Tour. With Lance on his team, I'm sure he'll need little motivation to have a pop at two grand tours in one year again.

mr. pleasant

el tonto wrote: »

If Levi Leipheimer ever wins a Grand Tour, it'll be against one sorry, sub-par lineup. He's one of the most boring wheelsuckers ever to sign on at a start line and makes Cadel Evans look like Claudio Chiapucci.

okay, true. i didn't say i like the guy, i'm only defending my prediction

he can handle menchov, sastre etc, the only guys that are really stronger are all in his own team. contador is the defending champion AND spanish - so what else than "i want to win the vuelta again" is he going to say?


and about cancellara: he will not win flanders, be frustrated, upload a double portion of the usual stuff and win roubaix in huge solo.