Paddy Power Sale Today only

whatsupdoc?

Loads of 1 day special offers in shop only.
The ones I can remember are:

MU to win Champions league 8/1
Denman 5/2 Gold Cup
Binoc World Hurdle 2/1
Ireland qualify for World Cup Soccer 9/4
Henman Wimbledon 7/1
can't remember the others but the best one of the lot is

Kilkenny to win All Ireland Hurling EVENS :eek:

Looks like they are doing all sort of specials each day in the shops for Jan.
I especially like the money back offer if your horse loses (if only I knew the races beforehand )

call d

the wimbledon bet is that scottish guy Murray I think, but some great bets in there today.

L1m1tless

whatsupdoc? wrote: »

Kilkenny to win All Ireland Hurling EVENS :eek:

Thanks for the heads up! gonna stick a few quid on this.

whatsupdoc?

Yep Murray was the guy.
Henman would be around 5000/1 :P

Woodgate

whatsupdoc? wrote: »

Yep Murray was the guy.
Henman would be around 5000/1 :P

500000000000000000000000000000/1

mitsubishi

Kilkenny to win All Ireland Hurling EVENS :eek:

You can lay cats on betfair at 1.74

L1m1tless

mitsubishi wrote: »

Kilkenny to win All Ireland Hurling EVENS :eek:

You can lay cats on betfair at 1.74

Only €2 matched As far as i can see! but good Idea!

punchestown

Would somebody be willing to post up each daily sale special? Ill try and post if Im in shops but would be great for readers on here to get a heads up.

Cheers

wb

mitsubishi wrote: »

Kilkenny to win All Ireland Hurling EVENS :eek:

You can lay cats on betfair at 1.74

Damn, this was one of the arbs of the year. Didn't realise it was shop betting only and missed it. I presume there was a max bet for each shop?

Super Sidious

usually €300/£200...

whatsupdoc?

It was €200 per bet but not sure if you went up and back 4 or 5 times what
if anything would be said.

L1m1tless

you probably could make the bet more than once. just come back later and go to a different teller

ITT-Pat

punchestown wrote: »

Would somebody be willing to post up each daily sale special? Ill try and post if Im in shops but would be great for readers on here to get a heads up.

Cheers

are there more specials today?

redarmyblues

These specials are more than adequately advertised in Powers Shops and on their site, these posts feel like Spam to me. Please lay off.

timaaaaay

If there's anything even close to being as good as KK at evens, please post here, spam it is not IMO

L1m1tless

Spam? LOL

redarmyblues

timaaaaay wrote: »

If there's anything even close to being as good as KK at evens, please post here, spam it is not IMO

I dont think they will have had a lot of takers, IME people are very reluctant to take short prices at a long distance.

Even with KK at levels they are still 111% on their book so they have left a little for themselves.

timaaaaay

I was in their shops shortly ago, todays specials are some money back on 2nd place in selected dog/horse races, Benni Mccarthy 4/1 (from 3/1 originally) FGS tonight, Blackburn - 2 @ 2/1 from 7/4 and all 4 faves to win tonights BDO darts @ 3/1 from 5/2.

Nothing that really appeals to me

myflipflops

redarmyblues wrote: »

I dont think they will have had a lot of takers, IME people are very reluctant to take short prices at a long distance.

Even with KK at levels they are still 111% on their book so they have left a little for themselves.

If people didn't want to invest long term, that's their issue. The Evens was huge value and i wish i had known and gotten on. It may still be a 111% book overall but there is no margin at all built in to Kilkenny if the price is Evens. In truth, it's way less than the 100% line of the selection considering the standard price appears to be 4/6.

okidoki987

These specials are more than adequately advertised in Powers Shops and on their site, these posts feel like Spam to me. Please lay off.

If you don't want to told about some special prices that only lasted for that day, don't join in the thread.
A lot of people wouldn't have known about the NYD specials if they hadn't gone into the shops and I for one was glad somebody posted it on here as I now have 3/1 and Evens on 2 good things this year (I hope ) against 2/1 and 4/6.
I wouldn't have even known they had them up if I hadn't seen it here.

The 111% margin might be correct but that would be using Kilkenny @ 4/6, when they are Evens, the margin goes right down (wouldn't think below 100%) but it was only for that day.

If there's any other firms doing specials for January, can someone please post any details?

okidoki987

okidoki987 wrote: »

If you don't want to told about some special prices that only lasted for that day, don't join in the thread.
A lot of people wouldn't have known about the NYD specials if they hadn't gone into the shops and I for one was glad somebody posted it on here as I now have 3/1 and Evens on 2 good things this year (I hope ) against 2/1 and 4/6.
I wouldn't have even known they had them up if I hadn't seen it here.

The 111% margin might be correct but that would be using Kilkenny @ 4/6, when they are Evens, the margin goes right down (wouldn't think below 100%) but it was only for that day.

If there's any other firms doing specials for January, can someone please post any details?

+1

redarmyblues

okidoki987 wrote: »

If you don't want to told about some special prices that only lasted for that day, don't join in the thread.
A lot of people wouldn't have known about the NYD specials if they hadn't gone into the shops and I for one was glad somebody posted it on here as I now have 3/1 and Evens on 2 good things this year (I hope ) against 2/1 and 4/6.
I wouldn't have even known they had them up if I hadn't seen it here.

The 111% margin might be correct but that would be using Kilkenny @ 4/6, when they are Evens, the margin goes right down (wouldn't think below 100%) but it was only for that day.

If there's any other firms doing specials for January, can someone please post any details?

It would be far more useful if offers from all firms were posted not just Powers. The fact that the thread is/was confined to Powers makes it feel spammy.

111% is correct using Kilkenny at 1/1 If you use KK at 4/6 Powers are at 121% in what in effect is a 7 runner book, which is 3% per runner. That is a nice wee book if you can lay it. Look behind the hype lads.

myflipflops

redarmyblues wrote: »

It would be far more useful if offers from all firms were posted not just Powers. The fact that the thread is/was confined to Powers makes it feel spammy.

111% is correct using Kilkenny at 1/1 If you use KK at 4/6 Powers are at 121% in what in effect is a 7 runner book, which is 3% per runner. That is a nice wee book if you can lay it. Look behind the hype lads.

As I pointed out above, it's a nice wee book if you can evenly lay each selection and take that margin. In reality though, the evens is way below the 100% line and there's negative margin there. If you're willing to lay the evens, stick it up on Betfair and i'll have a chunk.

redarmyblues

Powers SHC book is recast at 100% below and it shows Kilkenny at evens.

Kilkenny 2.02 Tipperary 7.87 Galway 9.08 Cork 10.89 Waterford 15.73 Limerick 22.99 Clare 18.15 Wexford 152.46 Offaly 182.71 Dublin 243.21 Antrim 1211.21 Laois 1211.21

I won't lay in on betfair as it would tie up betting capital for 9 months. Anybody wanting levels about this can surely get it from a friend in the pub without tying up funds.

myflipflops

None of my mates are stupid enough to lay me evens on Kilkenny to be honest.

whatsupdoc?

redarmyblues
The title of the thread should give it away
ONE DAY
So all I was doing was informing people that they were giving some very
good enhanced odds on some selections that people might like to, back,
like to back and lay off or just ignore, it didn't matter to me.
What did matter was that when I posted it, there was only a couple of hours left to do it as they were for that day only.
It's called giving people a heads up.
Just happened to drop into PP's on NYD and saw them, wasn't in any other bookie so couldn't say whether or not, anybody else had any offers up?

You seem to have the hump over some of the prices they laid that day,
maybe a bit close to....

By all means stick up ALL Special offers, enhances, value bets etc from all bookmakers or even start a new thread on it.

redarmyblues

wb wrote: »

Damn, this was one of the arbs of the year. Didn't realise it was shop betting only and missed it. I presume there was a max bet for each shop?

Say you got had e200 on KK @ 1/1 with Powers, laid them back for e214 @1.8 on betfair, you would win e14 come what may come September. If you were to take the e385 and put it on deposit @5% for 9 months you will earn e14.50 in interest. Therefore it would probably be more profitable and possibly more fun to put the money into the Post Office instead of Arbing on Kilkenny in the egg and spoon races.

I would encourage people to be skeptcial when it comes to betting beware of greeks bearing gifts and all that. I do not see the sense in taking a short price in an tournament that does not start for six months and has a history of throwing up suprises, others may disagree , but I think that the paltry sums matched on the machine on this event bears out what I say.

Bookmakers are not above encouraging their employees to come on to betting forums to promote them so when I see an unequivocally uncritical thread concerning the slickest marketing operation in bookmaking I get suspicious of spam, however I am glad to see that whatsupdoc conceded his first post was late as that was one of the things that originally concerned me.

okidoki987

These specials are more than adequately advertised in Powers Shops and on their site

Incorrect.
I rang them last night to ask what specials they had for the footie and was told specials are for shops only so you have to walk into the shop to get whatever they are doing.
Probably trying to stop arbsters getting involved or get people going into the shops instead of using the net/phones.

Therefore it would probably be more profitable and possibly more fun to put the money into the Post Office

You sure you're on the right forum?

you got had e200 on KK @ 1/1 with Powers, laid them back for e214 @1.8 on betfair

Anybody who was going to do that would have had at least €1k on it.
Might have taken a couple of trips to do it but as you say not worth doing it for €14.
I think most people would have backed KK at 1/1 and been happy with it rather then trying to lay it off.
Don't forget laying it off would have tied up twice your stake for 9 months.

beware of greeks bearing gifts and all that.

Whatsupdoc? was telling everybody about the specials that PP were doing that day. He wasn't bearing gifts and there is always the chance the selections will not win but the prices were enhanced so if you were going to back one, any or all of them you could have reduced your stake to win the same amount or staked the same amount to win approx 10-15% more.
I for one don't see a huge amount wrong with that?

I do not see the sense in taking a short price in an tournament that does not start for six months

As you see from some of the posters before, most people on here would have had their shirts on KK at 1/1 if they could or had known about it.
It doesn't matter whether you think it/they will win or not, in a weeks time or 6 months time. It's the fact that you could have got 1/1 on a 4/6 shot (sure you have to wait 9 months to get paid) but gambling is not about deposit rates, it's about getting on early at a good price and sitting happy with your slip for 6-9 months!

redarmyblues

It doesn't matter if you bet 1k or 100 the return on deposit @ 5% is higher than the return on the arb.

Many posters on this thread have said they would have backed KK at evens you have to take them at their word on that, however I don't see them queuing their orders for 2.0 up on betfair, e194 has been done @ 1.95 on the purple so 2.0 is layable.

It is also a given on this thread that 2.0 KK is value, yet nobody has condescended to back up this recieved wisdom with argument. Sure 1/1 is a a 20% better price than 4/6 that does not mean that 1/1 is value.

okidoki987

If you're that interested in getting a return on your money, I'm sure there's a place reserved for you in Savings and investments.
I'm sure they would love to hear your thoughts.

If your choice was: Date & Time of selection running is irrelevant.

To be guaranteed to back a team at 1/1 in a bookies now
(minimum €200 if you're clever) or
To have the potential of backing the same selection at 1/1 (same price &
minimum stake unknown) anytime within the next 6 months (but not guaranteed) and then take 5% off (approx) your winnings if it wins.

I know which one I'd be taking.

1/1 is value on KK wining another All Ireland Hurling Title.
Tell me who is going to stop them?

okidoki987

It doesn't matter if you bet 1k or 100 the return on deposit @ 5% is higher than the return on the arb.

Possibly not true

Back 100 @ 1/1 on KK PP's
Lay to win 112 @ 4/5 (available at 1.74 but only for €2)

After 5% commissions, it works out at Up €6.40 or Up € 4.08.
One slightly worse than the deposit rate and one slightly better.
I sure if I fiddle around with them, I'd get them to match.

redarmyblues

Possibly not true

Back 100 @ 1/1 on KK PP's
Lay to win 112 @ 4/5 (available at 1.74 but only for €2)

After 5% commissions, it works out at Up €6.40 or Up € 4.08.
One slightly worse than the deposit rate and one slightly better.
I sure if I fiddle around with them, I'd get them to match.

Don't forget to deduct DIRT from the Interest earned. I don;t want to labour the point but I used the Post Office analogy to point out that the arb is not the arb of the year as WB claimed.

1/1 is value on KK wining another All Ireland Hurling Title.
Tell me who is going to stop them?

I asked for argument to justify this opinion; you have merely provided another bald assertion. Since you have such strong opinions on the matter it is not too much too ask you provide a synopsis on this years senior hurling assigning a percentage value to the chances of each of the first 7 teams in the betting.

Perhaps you could add a little analysis as to why you recommend taking any levels available on KK at this time.

wixfjord

Just reading this thread and I have to say I agree with read my blues re: kilkenny being a value bet. I cannot understand why someone would invest a large sum of money (because anyone who takes that price would want to) on a season which isnt near to starting. What happens if Henry Shefflin does his cruicate, if Noel Hickie retires, if they have an awful league. Also, you only have to look at previous years to see what can happen in one game. Galway and Wexford have both surprised them in recent years. Also on the back of one, albeit near perfect, performance against a Waterford side, who not only froze, but could have very nearly lost to Wexford, (a team Kilkenny thrashes) Kilkenny are 4/6 / evens? I dont agree. No team should be that short for what is after all a marathon not a sprint.

Frankdtank

Was in powers today and got 10/1 on Fingeronthepulse 7/4 to win the 1.45 at leopardstown tomorrow and spurs to beat wigan also 7/4. Couldn't believe the odds works out at around 13/2. Fingeronthepulse is clear favourite and should take alot of beating and if i was picking a result in the soccer id go for spurs. I know its by no means a certainty but 10/1 is some value. Any thoughts?

redarmyblues

Sure Powers Are Magic
&
Some People Are Mugs
and don't realise it

okidoki987

Redarmy
I think you need to have a look at the size of that chip on your shoulder.

This is the gambling fourm and not for having a pop at a former employer
for whatever reason.

Heard Powers were giving 6/4 Utd to bt Chelsea yesterday?

wb

redarmyblues wrote: »

Say you got had e200 on KK @ 1/1 with Powers, laid them back for e214 @1.8 on betfair, you would win e14 come what may come September. If you were to take the e385 and put it on deposit @5% for 9 months you will earn e14.50 in interest. Therefore it would probably be more profitable and possibly more fun to put the money into the Post Office instead of Arbing on Kilkenny in the egg and spoon races.

I would encourage people to be skeptcial when it comes to betting beware of greeks bearing gifts and all that. I do not see the sense in taking a short price in an tournament that does not start for six months and has a history of throwing up suprises, others may disagree , but I think that the paltry sums matched on the machine on this event bears out what I say.

Bookmakers are not above encouraging their employees to come on to betting forums to promote them so when I see an unequivocally uncritical thread concerning the slickest marketing operation in bookmaking I get suspicious of spam, however I am glad to see that whatsupdoc conceded his first post was late as that was one of the things that originally concerned me.

OK, arb of the year may be overstating it a bit, but it's certainly a decent free bet.

Put it like this:

• €300 on KK at Evs.
  
• Lay €300 at 1.6 (could be done quite easy over the next few months - the liquidity is not there yet but the bet could be placed in stages before September).

That's a free €120 should they win with no risk. You can call people mugs all you want but that's a decent bloody bet.

OK, if you couldn't get it all matched at 1.6 you'd have to raise it a few ticks, but you see what I'm getting at.

If I walked up to you in the street and said "If Kilkenny win the All Ireland, you can have €120. If they lose, you don't owe any money." would you say no thanks? You'd be a mug not to take that offer.

redarmyblues

Lay €300 at 1.6 (could be done quite easy over the next few months - the liquidity is not there yet but the bet could be placed in stages before September).

There is no 1.6 to lay, there is 1.95 on betdaq, with stg179 done at that amount. If you want to close down your hypothetical e300 @ 2.0 today, you will have a free e15 less commission.

Your post is no more than wishful thinking.

wb

redarmyblues wrote: »

There is no 1.6 to lay, there is 1.95 on betdaq, with stg179 done at that amount. If you want to close down your hypothetical e300 @ 2.0 today, you will have a free e15 less commission.

Your post is no more than wishful thinking.

Did you read my post?

Why would you want to lay it all today? The final is not until September.

Right now there is no 1.6. In fact, there's no liquidity at all. But there's plenty of time to get that bet matched in stages before September. There's only 514 quid matched ( in total) at the time of writing on KK on Betfair. It's January, the market wont mature until the summer.

So far on Betfair, a good chunk of the money that was actually matched was at 1.65 - so I don't think my price is unrealistic at all. I'd safely say that more than 300 quid will be matched on KK at 1.6 before September.

redarmyblues

Why would you want to lay it all today? The final is not until September.

Right now there is no 1.6. In fact, there's no liquidity at all. But there's plenty of time to get that bet matched in stages before September. There's only 514 quid matched ( in total) at the time of writing on KK on Betfair. It's January, the market wont mature until the summer.

So far on Betfair, a good chunk of the money that was actually matched was at 1.65 - so I don't think my price is unrealistic at all. I'd safely say that more than 300 quid will be matched on KK at 1.6 before September.

KK could be knocked out by September, what you are talking about is not an arb, an arb is when you more or less simultaneously back and lay at the same time to ensure a profit by laying at a smaller price that the back price. If I were to give you 2.0 tonight about KK you can arb it on betdaq at 1.95 (where is some liquidity). Your strategy is a back to lay strategy, whereby you take my 2.0 and hold the position in the expectation that the price will contract from the (1.95 available now) in the future. This strategy contains risk unlike an arb which is risk free. The risk is in inherent in that KK could drift between now and the first game of the tournament due to a poor league campiaign and/or they could be knocked out before they hit your target lay of 1.6

Intrestingly, utilising the mean of the back/lay spread on to betdaq predicts that blue and pink will meet at 1.82. I would expect that When the Uk layers go up on the SHC at least one will go 1.73 (8/11) in an attempt to lure new internet custom from the ROI, or because they have a view. In that case exchange layers would go to the next fractional click to compete.

wb

Ah sorry mate, I thought this was the gambling forum. I must have stumbled across the 'things that are certain to happen' forum by mistake.

_____



Listen mate, I'm the last person who needs a lecture on how backing and laying works. I'm at this a pretty long time to be honest, and even spent some time doing it full time. We'll have to agree to disagree on this. I think it's a great opportunity (I missed it by the way) as I'm certain that more than 300 will be matched between 1.6 to 1.7 on Betfair on Kilkenny before they win/get knocked out. I'd give an educated guess that such sums will be matched before the championship starts too.

Big Chief

wb wrote: »

Ah sorry mate, I thought this was the gambling forum. I must have stumbled across the 'things that are certain to happen' forum by mistake.
_____
Listen mate, I'm the last person who needs a lecture on how backing and laying works. I'm at this a pretty long time to be honest, and even spent some time doing it full time. We'll have to agree to disagree on this. I think it's a great opportunity (I missed it by the way) as I'm certain that more than 300 will be matched between 1.6 to 1.7 on Betfair on Kilkenny before they win/get knocked out. I'd give an educated guess that such sums will be matched before the championship starts too.

kilkenny will not be knocked out before september and i 100% agree, anyone who actually watches the hurling would realise this

they were voted the best team ever in 2008, the all ireland final might aswell have been played against some school lads. This is the best team that kilkenny ever had and evs is the biggest steal, i would have lumped on it but heh.. i never caught it

as for betting and laying, you will get 1.6 easy... infact hold out long enough (and take the gamble) and im almost 95% sure they will reach the final, or atleast the semi when odds will be piled on them

agree with teh statement of always right forum, he is talking a good and sound bet.. no point arguing against it, some people (like myself) will completely agree with it..

redarmyblues

Ah sorry mate, I thought this was the gambling forum. I must have stumbled across the 'things that are certain to happen' forum by mistake.

Sorry WB it was you introduced certainty in to the thread when you posted about Arb of the year. An Arber by definition seeks to exclude uncertainty from his betting transactions (see Novembers Betting Business for some interesting Industry reaction to the issue) What is wrong with certainties anyway, I know of no punters (this writer included) who disdains them. I merely pointed out that the capital requirements of the KK position tended to outweigh the gains.

I

'm certain that more than 300 will be matched between 1.6 to 1.7 on Betfair on Kilkenny before they win/get knocked out

Perhaps this also belongs on the 'things that are certain to happen' forum. I am not omniscient so thus not certain about the issue but a glance at the markets suggests to me that it is probable that KK will trade, all things being equal, in and around 1.8 before the tournament starts. It is unlikely that anything will be done below 1.67 since you can have that from Powers or Ladcrooks without commission deducted.

BTW WB you and I are not acquainted so therefore please drop the mate thing.

wb

No, were not acquainted thankfully.

Jaysus. Get a life. Someone posted up a very good bet and you've been completely pedantic about it. My view is that you could easily lay off that bet for a decent free bet. Simple as that. If you don't agree - fair enough!

Arbing is not actually risk free. Having done some of it, prices can change and sometimes a loss must be incurred.

Let's just wait and see, but from being heavily involved in this game for a few years, I think you'll find that come the Championship, I'll be proved right and those sums will be matched at those prices.

But yes, It's not 100% certain. I should have said that I 'feel' pretty certain, but I think most other readers know what sort of odds they'll be anyway.

Even 1.8 for a free bet is reasonable IMO.

redarmyblues

No, were not acquainted thankfully

.

I am kind of begining to wish we were, you look very cute on your bagpipes website. Nice dress but lose the moustache.
: )

wb

redarmyblues wrote: »

.

I am kind of begining to wish we were, you look very cute on your bagpipes website. Nice dress but lose the moustache.
: )

Not me I'm afraid!

Shurwhynot

Got Crouch to score 1st last night at 10/1! Thank you PP

okidoki987

Bugger must have missed that one, was in PP's lunch time and didn't see it.
Ended up backing Crouch at 13/2 in Boylers which was best price
at the time.
Anyways happy enough he did it.

jkelly85

just called into PP on the way home from college 7/1 ronaldo to get the first goal i was having some of that:cool: session on 2nite if ronaldo comes through for me

okidoki987

Unlucky, never even got a run for your money.

jkelly85

okidoki987 wrote: »

Unlucky, never even got a run for your money.

oh stop watchin the match and my bet over in a min, still had da session:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D