Upcoming cold, Will it - wont it - snow early Jan?

daviddwyer

Well guys what do you think? Will it snow soon?

I for one know squat about models, runs etc and I hate to go off topiic in the model outlook... but I love reading about it even though 9 out of 10 times I get my hopes dashed.

My guess is, we will see snow in the next 10 days but not as much as we hoped and I base that opinion on pure guessing

Danno

Hi David, according to your presentation we are guaranteed a snow day! 9/10 fail, 1/10 succeed, with 10 days, at least one has to have snow so! :P :P :P

daviddwyer

Danno wrote: »

Hi David, according to your presentation we are guaranteed a snow day! 9/10 fail, 1/10 succeed, with 10 days, at least one has to have snow so! :P :P :P

You would think!!

ronnie3585

daviddwyer wrote: »

I base that opinion on pure guessing

Do you work for RTE?:D:D

Snowbie

With the current model runs in reliable timeframe, no. In FI it's possible
Pressure too high even if wind is screaming easterly or northerly.

After each run i will post my thoughts here if snow is possible from GFS and ECM outputs.

Gonzo

I dont think we will, everything keeps getting put back, and put back and put back, were forever playing the waiting game:) Hopefully shud see a few flakes before winters over

Supercell

I'm going for a yes for here, lower down..mwahahah

Pangea

Yes..........................

homersimpson

Yes

forkassed

Guaranteed....on january 5th/6th:eek:

200motels

I don't think it will where I live we rarely get snow, maybe other parts of the country will get some.

DOCARCH

I believe we will have a snow 'event' (how much and where is another question) by mid-Junuary (so maybe not within the 10 days of the poll).

mike65

Not a cat in hells chance (any chance that FI could be banned as its a nonsense term that confuses newbies who belive it has some scientific basis in reality?)

Snowbie

Thread title changed a tad to reflect on the chance of snow? from next weekend on. Post in this thread if you find something that looks worthwhile in your findings.

snowfan

Sorry to say David but going on the latest models, its looks like any chance of snow is rapidly reducing. Due to get colder this weekend but hard to say what will happen after that with any accuracy

I still live in hope and pray we don't have a mild January! :mad:

SF

LEIN

I hope so because its a bloody long time coming!

nacho libre

With good reason February has come to be my favourite month of the year. So if January does not relieve us of our suffering, I'm confident we'll at least get an arctic blast, that brings a day or two of moderate accumulations to most parts of the country, a couple of times during February.

Gonzo

I think this winter will be like all the others over past few years, we shud see a few short lived cold spells mainly from the north-west delivering showers to the western and northern areas. If we get really lucky hopefully we'll get some easterly snow. Thankfully the other tread got closed as it was building some peoples hopes up for no reason, FI Stuff is mainly junk it swings from one thing to another a few times a day. We've seen charts within the 24 to 72 hour timeline go completely pear shaped many times over recent winters, stuff thats 2 weeks out showing snow and cold snaps is pointless! other than wishfull thinking. Ireland is propably the most marginal snow event country in Europe (even Greece gets better winters than us).

snowfan

Gonzo wrote: »

I think this winter will be like all the others over past few years, we shud see a few short lived cold spells mainly from the north-west delivering showers to the western and northern areas. If we get really lucky hopefully we'll get some easterly snow. Thankfully the other tread got closed as it was building some peoples hopes up for no reason, FI Stuff is mainly junk it swings from one thing to another a few times a day. We've seen charts within the 24 to 72 hour timeline go completely pear shaped many times over recent winters, stuff thats 2 weeks out showing snow and cold snaps is pointless! other than wishfull thinking. Ireland is propably the most marginal snow event country in Europe (even Greece gets better winters than us).

Well said Gonzo! However I would not agree with Ireland being the most marginal snow event county in Europe - that title would have to go to Portugal!

conceited

mike65 wrote: »

Not a cat in hells chance (any chance that FI could be banned as its a nonsense term that confuses newbies who belive it has some scientific basis in reality?)

whats FI mean?

Gonzo

snowfan wrote: »

Well said Gonzo! However I would not agree with Ireland being the most marginal snow event county in Europe - that title would have to go to Portugal!

lol forgot about Portugal, ok were the second most marginal snow event country in Europe:)

despite that im sure at some stage most of us shud hopefully see an inch or 2 of lying snow before winters over.

snowfan

Gonzo wrote: »

lol forgot about Portugal, ok were the second most marginal snow event country in Europe:)

despite that im sure at some stage most of us shud hopefully see an inch or 2 of lying snow before winters over.

I live in hope Gonzo, I really do

However it seems as each year passes, the chance of some decent snow recedes.....I am starting to lose hope :mad:

snowfan

I know its a US based service, however CNN is forecasting sleet for Dublin on the 5/01/09

http://weather.cnn.com/weather/forecast.jsp?celcius=true&locCode=EIDW&zipCode=336562986788

Mr Benevolent

I know its a US based service, however CNN is forecasting sleet for Dublin on the 5/01/09

Oh no it's not!

I get the impression that, most of the time, weather forecasters are even more wrong then astrologers

Does anyone keep a record of how accurate all these runs really are? Surely the only run that's even slightly close to the truth is the one that comes 6 hours before the weather hits?

If there's 6 feet of snow, an MCS and a hurricane next week then I take it all back. In the meantime...

snowfan

Confab wrote: »

Oh no it's not!

I get the impression that, most of the time, weather forecasters are even more wrong then astrologers

Does anyone keep a record of how accurate all these runs really are? Surely the only run that's even slightly close to the truth is the one that comes 6 hours before the weather hits?

If there's 6 feet of snow, an MCS and a hurricane next week then I take it all back. In the meantime...

Fair point Confab

And I have just read on another thread that its likely that the current "cool" period we are experiencing is due to be broken up soon by Atlantic weather fronts....still there is always Feb and March !!

Mr Benevolent

Don't get me wrong, I really do love bad weather, and I love this forum. But some of the FI stuff is a bit like walking into a strip club - you can look but you can't touch. Fair play though, Snowbie and the gang have cracked down on the FI and hopefully we'll get some realistic stuff. I look forward to snow but I'll have to move to Canada to see it, and similarly with thunderstorms. Thankfully I'm off to Australia for a year in June, so at least the TS wish will be granted

Snowbie

Based on the outputs from the 12z GFS and ECM, the likelyhood of even a very cold snap let alone any snow is starting to look remote.

The tax man

conceited wrote: »

whats FI mean?

arctictree wrote: »

FI is Fantasy Island - used for discussing charts more than 6 or 7 days away.

A

Check out this thread.Some links contained within. I only learnt what FI meant while reading that thread the other day.

daviddwyer

ronnie3585 wrote: »

Do you work for RTE?:D:D

I'm not bad at the uald guessing... so who knows might send my cv in!!:D

Pangea

Im scared to go into the outlook forum ,lol , the only person going off topic in there is Snowbie ,anyways I seen on bbc forecast for london that its gona be cold for next few days, on sunday temps will be 0 during the day .

Snowbie

Pangea wrote: »

Im scared to go into the outlook forum ,lol , the only person going off topic in there is Snowbie ,anyways .

What's all that about?

MUSEIST

Snowbie wrote: »

What's all that about?

I think its about somebody moderating with a iron fist:p

snowfan

MUSEIST wrote: »

I think its about somebody moderating with a iron fist:p

LOL !!!

kerry1960

MUSEIST wrote: »

I think its about somebody moderating with a iron fist:p

Woops .....better watch out.........the velvet gloves are off .

forkassed

lol..was waitin for some backlash from that. Although i think snowbies just trying to keep the place in a bit of order.

Snowbie

Oh i get it now let me put it into context.
mods give out advice,
posters take no notice,
mods remind posters not to post off topic
posters still ignore
mods take a much needed step in tidying up
posters still take no notice.
thread is locked.
New thread opened up and OP states about being off topic
Poster still ignores
Patience wears thin
Poster banned
Push the boundaries, we will push the button.
Posters don't realise what effort we put into the forum
Thankless job lads give us a break.

Iron fist? You should check out my iron boot.

MUSEIST

Snowbie wrote: »

Oh i get it now let me put it into context.
mods give out advice,
posters take no notice,
mods remind posters not to post off topic
posters still ignore
mods take a much needed step in tidying up
posters still take no notice.
thread is locked.
New thread opened up and OP states about being off topic
Poster still ignores
Patience wears thin
Poster banned
Push the boundaries, we will push the button.
Posters don't realise what effort we put into the forum
Thankless job lads give us a break.

Iron fist? You should check out my iron boot.

AHh snowbie I was only joking -you do a great job and we appreciate the knowledge and wisdom shared by people like you.:o:o:o
Somebody has to keep the ship in order and we appreciate it:D:P

Deep Easterly

Snowbie wrote: »

.
Iron fist? You should check out my iron boot.

I wouldn't like to Karl! I back up Snowbie's comments above. I know it is easy to wander off topic, but try and stay on as it makes the topic of any particular thread more easy to follow. This thread is just a simple yes/no poll, not a head hunt. Lets keep it that way.

kerry1960

kerry1960 wrote: »

Woops .....better watch out.........the velvet gloves are off .

Sorry , off topic myself there , but couldn't resist it .....

Ok back on topic i have voted yes , reason being i'll be in Czech Rep all next week .........cheating aren't i :rolleyes:.

Pangea

Snowbie wrote: »

What's all that about?

I mean that people are talking about the weather , but u keep talking about people going off topic, which is off topic initself, but there is more off your posts about people going off topic than there is from the people that are talking about the weather :P

Dude gets banned for talking about the weather cmon.

kerry1960

Pangea wrote: »

I mean that people are talking about the weather , but u keep talking about people going off topic, which is off topic initself, but there is more off your posts about people going off topic than there is from the people that are talking about the weather :P

Dude gets banned for talking about the weather cmon.

.......

snowfan

Snowbie wrote: »

Oh i get it now let me put it into context.
mods give out advice,
posters take no notice,
mods remind posters not to post off topic
posters still ignore
mods take a much needed step in tidying up
posters still take no notice.
thread is locked.
New thread opened up and OP states about being off topic
Poster still ignores
Patience wears thin
Poster banned
Push the boundaries, we will push the button.
Posters don't realise what effort we put into the forum
Thankless job lads give us a break.

Iron fist? You should check out my iron boot.

Hey Snowbie,

I am one of the posters that has been guilty of going off topic
And me only a wet day in the place :cool:

Anyway, your input (along with Snowaddicts) is genuinely appreciated by the likes of myself who is new to this forum and has a genuine interest in weather
Keep up the good work and going forward I will ensure that if I have anything off topic, I will either keep it to myself or start another thread!

Thanks again for your patience

Snowfan - a fellow snow lover !!

Pangea

kerry1960 wrote: »

.......

in other words the people that are quilty of being offtopic are actually talking about the weather with good intentions but snowbie makes numerous posts about these ppl complaining, and that is even more off topic.

snowbie relax man , no need to ban, just giving ya my opinion,

btw this thread is going off topic now lol
ok i hope it snows just a bit skeptic now
still got hopes for 5th of jan

snowfan

Pangea wrote: »

in other words the people that are quilty of being offtopic are actually talking about the weather with good intentions but snowbie makes numerous posts about these ppl complaining, and that is even more off topic.

snowbie relax man , no need to ban, just giving ya my opinion,

btw this thread is going off topic now lol
ok i hope it snows just a bit skeptic now
still got hopes for 5th of jan

Hey Pangea, I have a feeling about the 5th too...could be snow day...!

Snowbie

Pangea wrote: »

I mean that people are talking about the weather , but u keep talking about people going off topic, which is off topic initself, but there is more off your posts about people going off topic than there is from the people that are talking about the weather :P

Dude gets banned for talking about the weather cmon.

:rolleyes: yet another spaz of a post from you but the difference between you and i is I'm a mod on this forum and have been doing so for several years. I go off topic to get things back on.

Things run fine around here and leniency is given to the new posters but as you are well aware now (even after you have seen my post above) what us mods try to do around here for the rest of the 99% general weather enthusiast, we try and keep things flowing for the greater good, people like yourself and a few before you commit to a slight headache which for one i will not put up with who create disruption on here.

Snowbie

Pangea wrote: »

in other words the people that are quilty of being offtopic are actually talking about the weather with good intentions but snowbie makes numerous posts about these ppl complaining, and that is even more off topic.

snowbie relax man , no need to ban, just giving ya my opinion,

btw this thread is going off topic now lol
ok i hope it snows just a bit skeptic now
still got hopes for 5th of jan

I really have heard enough now. Your posting as if i can't read this, then direct something at me and then you go and try deflate a situation by trying to be on topic. Issues comes to mind.

Pangea

Snowbie wrote: »

:rolleyes: yet another spaz of a post from you but the difference between you and i is I'm a mod on this forum and have been doing so for several years. I go off topic to get things back on.

we try and keep things flowing for the greater good, people like yourself and a few before you commit to a slight headache which for one i will not put up with who create disruption on here.

Hey man chill , None of my posts have been "spaz" , a lot of yours have i would imagine , and as for the headache talk i dont know what ur talking about as i said im just giving u my opinion ,anyways enough of this ,stop going off topic and post about the upcoming snow event

Pangea wrote: »

snowbie relax man , no need to ban, just giving ya my opinion,

:rolleyes:

Snowbie

You can't take the message, can you
Banned for a week for being too opinionated

Banned then for 2 weeks and now permanent for persisting PM's.

kerry1960

Point accepted Pangea , i shouldnt post a smiley as a reply , lets all agree not to use the word topic again .
Tbh its hard to see any Snow in Ireland in the timeframe ,i'll be away so otherwise my vote would have to be no.

MUSEIST

I am sorry ,I started all this with a comment which REALLY was meant in a lighthearted fashion, SORRY FOLKES:o

kerry1960

kerry1960 wrote: »

Ok back on topic i have voted yes , reason being i'll be in Czech Rep all next week .........cheating aren't i :rolleyes:.

Most definitely!