Broadband In Ireland In Full Reverse By Q2 2009

Sponge Bob

The latest Comreg figures are instructive . I have taken the liberty of personally projecting them to Q2 2009 ( not yet published of course )

The only category of service that is really expanding is Mobile 3g . This as we know is not Broadband so I will not count it .

Fixed Wireless went negative in Q2 2008 and more negative in Q3 2008 .

-1500 subs Q2 2008 -1%
-2500 subs Q3 2008 -2%

2007 +12% a quarter or so !

Cable BB is ALMOST EX Growth despite much wider availability and much faster speeds. Stop throttling you muppets

+2800 subs Q2 2008 2%
+4000 subs Q3 2008 4%

2007 +10% a quarter or so !

Both pf those categories grew at over 10% a quarter in 2007

ADSL growth has dropped from 5% to 4% , same as cable . ADSL and Cable are rapidly heading for 0% growth .

2007 +10% a quarter or so !

NOW for the hairy bit . I have seen some snippets of Q4 data already and will make the following prediction .

By Q2 2009 PENETRATION OF ALL FORMS OF BROADBAND ACCESS IN IRELAND WILL BE SHRINKING .

Mind you so will the population:(

Comreg will find some way to declare this a triumph and that even though BB subs are dropping they are not dropping as fast as the population itself .

Comreg will always give the pig a full facial when a bit of lipstick would do instead

The ONLY GROWTH AREA in Q2 2009 will be 3g , generally a Dialup Substitute and not Broadband at all although some customers find it OK .

Data from Comreg

Sponge Bob

Before Comreg and Eamon Ryan drag that poor pig into the Beauty Salon for its full facial I think you should look at this chart.

It comes from the Point Topic quarterly global snapshot available from here

http://point-topic.com/contentDownload/operatorsource/dslreports/world%20broadband%20statistics%20q3%202008.pdf

Point Topic do not count that 3G rubbish as Broadband . The growth in Irleand , aggregated , was about 4% at most . That is not what the competition is doing

watty

I'd love to see a break down of Fixed Wireless growth/contraction by technology/Performance.
How much of the shrinkage is expensive or high latency or slow services? Obviously I can't name them, but the stickies have been here.

Marlow

The issue with fixed wireless is actually, that in a lot of places, no more licenses are available. And that is ComRegs fault in the first place.

One very good example of this was the release of the 3.6 GHz spectrum, that then didn't get released anyhow by ComReg.

Obviously ComReg does not look at providers in the 5 GHz spectrum, as it is unlicensed.

/M