Recap with irish banks.

ranger4

When the irish banks are recapatlized by whatever meathod choosen by government will there be a new trading code for each bank or will they keep the same trading codes e.g allied irish present code is ALBK euro 0.32 will they likely keep same trading codes or set up new trading codes rendering the old account codes closed.

Idu

Why would they change the codes?

ranger4

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

Why would they change the codes?

I wasnt sure if the banks were recapitalized that a new trading entitiy would be set up to trade preference shares and that the exsisiting shareholders shares would be transfered to new trading entitiy.

Idu

thats not how it works anyway

woodseb

ranger4 wrote: »

I wasnt sure if the banks were recapitalized that a new trading entitiy would be set up to trade preference shares and that the exsisiting shareholders shares would be transfered to new trading entitiy.

the ordinary shares will continue to trade the same way, albeit further diluted

the pref line will trade under a different ticker

ranger4

woodseb wrote: »

the ordinary shares will continue to trade the same way, albeit further diluted

the pref line will trade under a different ticker

thanks for info.

Glacier

This may be a silly question, but do you think if there are only 2 Banks left, when this recovery happens, do you think with less competition they could even be stronger than they were before the crises?

pocketdooz

Glacier wrote: »

This may be a silly question, but do you think if there are only 2 Banks left, when this recovery happens, do you think with less competition they could even be stronger than they were before the crises?

Any excess market space created by the dissappearance of any Irish banks will be entered into almost immediately by foreign, well capitalised banks

imo

Glacier

Anyone else?

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Glacier

In terms of share price?

Mikel

Glacier wrote: »

In terms of share price?

I think he means in terms of the number of banks. That will happen in time imo, but nobody wants to admit it will have to happen.
But up until recently the notion of recap was being dismissed by the banks.

pocketdooz

Glacier - maybe if you ask enough times the share price will go up ?

rugbyman

whether he asks many times or not, the share prices of most Irish banks will rise. unfortunately not enough for many stockholders . And nobody on here in the last six months has suggested otherwise.
regards

ranger4

Looks like i will be holding onto my aib stock for a few years before i break even at 3.56.

ixus

ranger4 wrote: »

Looks like i will be holding onto my aib stock for a few years before i break even at 3.56.

Ouchie! I'm pretty sure I remember you asking around here before and getting some decent internet advice not to go near it.

Glacier, I'm also pretty sure you've asked a lot of questions on this forum and never had a satisfactory answer (one that suits you anyway).

I really think you need to read a book or do a course (degree/masters or something) in finance and educate yourself. This is not a slight on you, I just think you ask a lot of naive questions on the internet. You don't seem to really listen to solid, prudent advice and some day I think you(and many others on here) will suffer a big loss by jumping on the bandwagon with little/no knowledge.

Try and anser these questions for yourself:
What is a recovery exactly? back to 2006/200/1980?
I think we are having the recovery (back to reality).

How will banks earn income in the future?
How will they possibly earn as much as they did before?
How will the IFSC grow?
Where will government raise taxes?
Maybe watch this: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4668112n&tag=topHome;topStory It tells you whats coming after subprime

Good luck!

pocketdooz

Nice post Ixus

Baird

ranger4 wrote: »

Looks like i will be holding onto my aib stock for a few years before i break even at 3.56.

All the irish banks are now priced to be completely nationalised or else have a shareholder dilution of at least 80%.
If this doesnt happen and Lenihans comments on tv yesterday would lead you
to believe it wont, then the banks should rally hard with AIB and IL&P having
more upside than BOI or Anglo.
3.56 is an 80% rally, the way the Irish market is at the moment you could see
that within 5 days of a recapitalisation plan being announced.
You are in a lot better position to the people who bought in at 12 right the way
up to 24 who will probably never break even on their investments :(

ranger4

Baird wrote: »

All the irish banks are now priced to be completely nationalised or else have a shareholder dilution of at least 80%.
If this doesnt happen and Lenihans comments on tv yesterday would lead you
to believe it wont, then the banks should rally hard with AIB and IL&P having
more upside than BOI or Anglo.
3.56 is an 80% rally, the way the Irish market is at the moment you could see
that within 5 days of a recapitalisation plan being announced.
You are in a lot better position to the people who bought in at 12 right the way
up to 24 who will probably never break even on their investments :(

Hello Baird, I guess any possible rally with banks will depend on which way and how soon the government decide to recap them, sheehy is addiment that the bank dosent need to be recapitalised and keeps insisiting that aib is in a much stronger position than other irish banks and if aib decides to go it alone and the rest of the irish banks are recaped by government the markets could take a negitive atitude towards aib stock, a lot could happen between now and january both possitive and negitive but i do hope the government dosent leave it too long before any recap detailed announcement is made as the longer this uncertainty drags on the more negetive effect it will have on irish bank stock.

Baird

ranger4 wrote: »

Hello Baird, I guess any possible rally with banks will depend on which way and how soon the government decide to recap them, sheehy is addiment that the bank dosent need to be recapitalised and keeps insisiting that aib is in a much stronger position than other irish banks and if aib decides to go it alone and the rest of the irish banks are recaped by government the markets could take a negitive atitude towards aib stock,

That is a distinct possibility, however the opposite is also possible ie the market
looks at AIB not diluting their shareholders and rewards them for it.
Its honestly a lottery at this stage.
Sheehy was in the paper again this morning reiterating that AIB dont need
capital, to be honest even if they take it at this stage their price should rally.

a lot could happen between now and january both possitive and negitive but i do hope the government dosent leave it too long before any recap detailed announcement is made as the longer this uncertainty drags on the more negetive effect it will have on irish bank stock.

The recap deal probably wont be announced until January at the earliest.
If there was a deal in place a lot more details would have been released
instead of vague comments and possibilities.

ranger4

Baird wrote: »

That is a distinct possibility, however the opposite is also possible ie the market
looks at AIB not diluting their shareholders and rewards them for it.
Its honestly a lottery at this stage.
Sheehy was in the paper again this morning reiterating that AIB dont need
capital, to be honest even if they take it at this stage their price should rally.



The recap deal probably wont be announced until January at the earliest.
If there was a deal in place a lot more details would have been released
instead of vague comments and possibilities.

the gov seems to be taking very laxy daisy approach with the recap of banks and the longer time drags on before they make any concrete announcement with recap will drive the likes of aibs boi stock down further possibly to anglos lows, wish i could recieve a months hols in time of crises.

Baird

ranger4 wrote: »

the gov seems to be taking very laxy daisy approach with the recap of banks and the longer time drags on before they make any concrete announcement with recap will drive the likes of aibs boi stock down further possibly to anglos lows, wish i could recieve a months hols in time of crises.

In fairness the Gov is dragging its heels for one obvious reason, it can afford to
bail out the banks. Simple as that. The country's finances are an absolute mess
and are getting worse by the day.

-mr.x-

I would expect the AIB share price would be greater than €3.56 in a couple of years or mabe a year, who knows.
I bought shares myself at €2.23.

Diarmuid

Baird wrote: »

it can afford to bail out the banks

I'm guessing you meant the inverse?

Baird

Diarmuid wrote: »

I'm guessing you meant the inverse?

Lol good spot Diarmuid

ranger4

Well news out this eve reads, 2 billion in preference shares for gov with both aib and boi and a further annual dividend of 8% anglo 1.5 billion and gov set for 75% voting rights, what value is now placed with shareprice with aib and boi with thease figures.

Genco

What credibility can be left with the irish banks since barely a month has passed since one CEO told investors recently that he’d “rather die” than allow the government to become an investor in his bank ......

dotsman

Genco wrote: »

What credibility can be left with the irish banks since barely a month has passed since one CEO told investors recently that he’d “rather die” than allow the government to become an investor in his bank ......

You must remember that what was announced this evening is merely the Government's offer. It will have to wait for each of the bank's AGMs (or possibly hold an EGM) to decide whether or not to take it. But yes, if at the AIB AGM, it is decided to accept the offer, then that certainly leaves Mr Sheahy in a very embarrassing pickle!

ranger4

dotsman wrote: »

You must remember that what was announced this evening is merely the Government's offer. It will have to wait for each of the bank's AGMs (or possibly hold an EGM) to decide whether or not to take it. But yes, if at the AIB AGM, it is decided to accept the offer, then that certainly leaves Mr Sheahy in a very embarrassing pickle!

I agree, But out of all the irish banks i am glad to have bought aib stock for longterm investment.

stepbar

Comparing what has (and is happening) in the US to what is happening in the EU is not even comparing apples with oranges. It's like companing apples with fish :eek: "Teaser" loans :eek: Regulation has a lot to do with it. One has to question what the US financial institutions were up to. In fairness to the Financial Regulator here, we have prehaps one of the best systems in Europe if not the world. None of the sh1te that's being going on in the US has been seen here. No one is "allowed" to easily walk away from a property, unlike the US. Unfortunatly we've the victim of rapidly falling house prices due to a recession, which in most parts hasn't been our making.

Idu

ranger4 wrote: »

I agree, But out of all the irish banks i am glad to have bought aib stock for longterm investment.

Why? Serious question. Not arguing with you just interested as to why?

silverharp

stepbar wrote: »

Comparing what has (and is happening) in the US to what is happening in the EU is not even comparing apples with oranges. It's like companing apples with fish :eek: "Teaser" loans :eek: Regulation has a lot to do with it. One has to question what the US financial institutions were up to. In fairness to the Financial Regulator here, we have prehaps one of the best systems in Europe if not the world. None of the sh1te that's being going on in the US has been seen here. No one is "allowed" to easily walk away from a property, unlike the US. Unfortunatly we've the victim of rapidly falling house prices due to a recession, which in most parts hasn't been our making.

If you had put one of these after your post:rolleyes: I'd agree. Seriously you need to step back and take a look at this again. We are the victim of nothing. A property bubble is a property bubble and they ALWAYS burst. There was never going to be a plateau and house prices arent falling due to a recession. Once house prices started falling it set off a chain of events in the credit and equity markets , a recession happens later when the effects hit the real economy
The fact that lending standards on the face of it wasnt as insane as the US, makes little difference in reality, the point is asset values here are unsustainable and the banking system here is tied into this, we are in year 2 of 10 year event

Baird

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

Why? Serious question. Not arguing with you just interested as to why?

Best loan book, best capital position, most instantly saleable assets, best
management team, most diversified etc etc

ranger4

Baird wrote: »

Best loan book, best capital position, most instantly saleable assets, best
management team, most diversified etc etc

I agree, Aib will come thru this turmoil and i believe it to be a exellent investment.