Straight from horses mouth - Prices down 40%

ronbyrne2005

Prices down by 40% since peak

2008Review: PROPERTY VALUES: Residential property prices have fallen further than people realise, says estate agency chief Keith Lowe - but he says next year could show a recovery

THERE IS STILL much after-dinner discussion as to what is really happening in the residential property market, only now the subject matter has changed from how high prices are, to how far property prices have really fallen.

At the moment, due to data protection legislation, the media, buyers and sellers alike are starved of accurate information on the actual sale prices that are being achieved for property, leaving consumers with a wholly unsatisfactory vacuum of information.

As a result, most interested parties turn to the plethora of house price indices produced by a variety of organisations.

One of the most respected indexes is the Permanent TSB/ESRI house price survey. Having the ESRI involved has given this survey independence whereas other surveys are deemed to have some sort of vested interest. The highest percentage price drop reported by the Permanent TSB/ESRI from peak, Dublin and nationally, is 16 per cent.

The situation on the ground provides a far more stark reality. It is our view that residential property prices in certain areas of the country have dropped by as much as 40 per cent since their peak in September 2006, although not all areas of the market or the country have witnessed this level of price decrease.

One of the main public indicators of substantial price reductions has been the new homes market where advertisements have been aggressively showing the actual price cuts being offered.

What is interesting is that where new-homes developments have dropped their prices sufficiently (and I say sufficiently!) sales have been strong.

As agents, we have had first-hand experience of this on a number of developments across the country where prices have dropped by 20 per cent to 40 per cent and strong sales activity followed as a direct result.

We recently dropped prices by 40 per cent on a tax-incentive apartment scheme at the MacDonagh Junction shopping and leisure complex in Kilkenny city.

As a result over 40 units have been sold. To me, this level of activity proves the point that there are plenty of buyers who wish to purchase but only when they see what they consider to be excellent value.

We have witnessed similar percentage cuts in prices in the second-hand market.

Dublin 4 and 6 have suffered substantial price falls, but properties in the higher price brackets seem to have been affected most.

Houses under €1 million have dropped by about 20 per cent, while the reduction on properties between €1.5 million and €4 million has been up to 30 per cent, but sales at this price level and over have been very thin on the ground.

South Dublin has shown a similar trend. As an example, we sold two fine semi-detached homes at Dundrum and Ballinteer in 2006 for €660,000 and €820,000 respectively.

This year we sold identical houses in the same estates for €505,000 and €520,000 respectively, showing price falls of 23.5 per cent and 36.5 per cent.

We also sold a pre-war house on an established road in south Co Dublin in 2006 for €1,900,000 and a very similar but smaller property on the same road last May sold for just under €1,200,000 - representing a 37 per cent decrease.

The position in north Dublin is also similar.

We recently sold a house in Sutton for €2,750,000 that would have sold for €4,000,000 two years ago. We also sold a house in Sutton in June 2006 for €1,200,000 and we recently agreed a sale on an identical property in the last few weeks for a price close to €750,000 - a 37.5 per cent drop.

In west Dublin, prices of entry level homes have dropped by approximately 25 per cent in the last two years.

For example, we sold three similar homes in the same modern estate for about €450,000 each in 2006. Last week we sold an identical property in the same estate for €350,000 - a fall of 22 per cent.

While it is only right to acknowledge that many recent buyers will be concerned with the speed and extent of these price reductions, the property market is cyclical and I know that house prices will rebound to levels higher than today at some stage in the future, hopefully sooner rather than later.

It is my belief that next year could show a recovery in the residential market.

My reasoning is that residential property prices have fallen substantially and further than people realise.

Interest rates are now on a rapid downward cycle. As interest rates continue to fall we will soon witness rents exceeding mortgage repayments which will entice tenants and investors into the buying arena once again.

In addition, new homes commencements which form part of a multi-unit development (ie, excluding one-off housing) have collapsed in recent months, running at an annualised rate of around 5,000 completions.

This brings us closer to a time when sales will exceed completions, a key point in reducing the overhang of stock in the market.

Many potential buyers are trying to do the near impossible and predict the bottom of the market but, if a buyer purchases now, I would argue that they will have experienced the majority of the anticipated total price fall.

So, with the up-to-40 per cent drop in prices of new and re-sale properties, with interest rates on a downward trend and potential new and second-hand supply shortages then, if you have the confidence and the money, now could be a very prudent time to enter or re-enter the market.

• Keith Lowe is the chief executive of Douglas Newman Good
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2008/1204/1228311872618.html

tommyboy2222

but he says next year could show a recovery

No it wont

merlynthewizard

tommyboy2222 wrote: »

No it wont

Try 2014

SimpleSam06

ronbyrne2005 wrote: »

due to data protection legislation, the media, buyers and sellers alike are starved of accurate information

Data protection legislation my hole. I wonder how often hes trotted that one out.

ronbyrne2005 wrote: »

Many potential buyers are trying to do the near impossible and predict the bottom of the market

Thats right folks, Keith Lowe unlike all the peasants has been reading the tea leaves and is here to tell you that the crash is over, so buy buy buy! For gods sake he hasn't paid off the third wing on the villa yet, throw the man a bone!

Highsider

Everything is fine people...Honest

Duckjob

I love the notion that 'the recovery' of house prices is on its way.

On the one hand, acknowledging that property has been and still is stupidly overpriced, and on the other hand implying that once prices reach a certain magic tipping point, it'll be up, up and away again regardless of how f*cked the economy is.

Snap up your rural shoebox now folks, it's your 2nd chance not to left behind when the market takes off again

Lplated

Survey on RTE news last night - 80% of estate agents are now only selling an average of three properties a month, 18% had sold NONE in the last month.

In fairness, it must be tough to be in an industry that has totally tanked (although i suppose the profits garnered over the last 10 to 15 years will cushion the blow for a bit).

Interest rates are expected to be reduced today, but regardless of how much that will be, I wonder will it encourage people back into the market. I suspect that people considering buying would wait as long as possible (i.e. at least another year), on the expectation that prices will go down a good bit more.

blah

So if I go to buy a house that would have been "worth" 500,000 in 2006, and I'm quoted 400,000+, it's because the price had dropped to 300,000 and is now on the way back up....?

Or at least that's the scenario that he's suggesting will soon be true. Quick everyone! To the banks....!.....


....oh wait it's raining.

ravendude

I think they're trying to paint the picture now that the big drops have happened and the market has bottomed out, - and hence we should all start panic buying ASAP.

Down here in Cork the vast majority of asking prices are still ridiculously over priced. 350K+ for 3 bed semis are the norm around the better parts of the city

I wonder will the interest rate cuts give some support to the market. I can't see it being enough tbh. People in the past could justify paying ridiculous prices to themselves on the basis that "prices would keep going up".
- That delusion has been shattered.

ravendude

Duckjob wrote: »

Snap up your rural shoebox now folks, it's your 2nd chance not to left behind when the market takes off again

.... I'll get out my sleeping bag and start queuing....

niceirishfella

lads/lassies/everyone = please calm down. Its not a housing slump,house price crash or any other abrasive term.

Its just "advanced price correction" *









*this is the shoite spouted by all the vested interests in the auctioneering game. Truth is - it'll be 5 years or more till it all recovers.

JOL

Until the worldwide recession slows down and the media give up on the doom and gloom banter and the banks get sorted out, nothing else will change.

With all of the job losses at the moment I wouldn't expect 2009 to be any better than 2008, except possibly the weather might be better .

So we can all go for nice long walks in the fresh air if the government doesn't tax that too :rolleyes:

gurramok

I wonder where this excellent value in the market is that Mr Lowe proclaims?

A quick look at daft still shows entry level housing for example still asking crazy prices in sh1thole areas, nevermind 'average decent' areas.
A long way to the bottom yet folks.

ravendude

gurramok wrote: »

I wonder where this excellent value in the market is that Mr Lowe proclaims?

A quick look at daft still shows entry level housing for example still asking crazy prices in sh1thole areas, nevermind 'average decent' areas.
A long way to the bottom yet folks.

Absolutely, asking prices are still crazy. The vast majority if sellers still seem to have ridiculous expectations, i.e. Wanting to get what the house is "worth" (a.k.a. What the house was worth at the height of an unsustainable boom, which is now history).

I'd say the drop in prices are reflective of that small subset that actually goes so far as getting sold. i.e. Those who are willing to lower there expectations.

Hippo

This is exactly the problem, asking prices are still miles ahead of any reasonable multiple of rents, and even with low interest rates until the prices come down sufficiently there'll be little or no market activity.

oceanclub

ravendude wrote: »

I think they're trying to paint the picture now that the big drops have happened and the market has bottomed out, - and hence we should all start panic buying ASAP.

Exactly. Hence we have the spectable of industry shills such as Marian Finnegan, Chief Economist of the Sherry FitzGerald Group, referring to a 30% drop in the price of second-hand Dublin residential properties as merely a "correction".

If this is a "correction", what the hell does she think is a property crash?

P.

Duckjob

oceanclub wrote: »

Exactly. Hence we have the spectable of industry shills such as Marian Finnegan, Chief Economist of the Sherry FitzGerald Group, referring to a 30% drop in the price of second-hand Dublin residential properties as merely a "correction".

If this is a "correction", what the hell does she think is a property crash?

P.

No, no, it's not even a correction. Prices have "softened" by 30% :pac:

niceirishfella

a soft landing.......? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

oceanclub

Duckjob wrote: »

No, no, it's not even a correction. Prices have "softened" by 30% :pac:

It's a strange quirk of mathematics that percentage drops in price don't sound as bad as they actually are, but consider; for a house to drop 30% in price, means it would have to increase in price by 42% (over inflation) to get back to where it was initially.

If house prices drop 50% - not unlikely in the current climate - they would need to increase %100 to recover. %100 is about 12 years of house price increases during the Celtic Tiger - does anyone imagine we will see anything like that again?

If house prices drop 50%, it will take a generation to recover.

P.

FGR

Cork City seems to be holding it's own. Buying in Rochestown, Douglas, Blackrock or Bishopstown is still phenomenally expensive. Go out east and Midleton, Youghal and Dungarvan are also ridiculously overpriced.

Something has to give. I have a feeling a lot of builders are 'sitting' and hoping beyond hope that they can still get a large percentage profit; as opposed to fixing prices sooner and having these places shifted.

niceirishfella

ForegoneReality wrote: »

I have a feeling a lot of builders are 'sitting' and hoping beyond hope that they can still get a large percentage profit; as opposed to fixing prices sooner and having these places shifted.

Its not the builders....its their banks.

jimbling

man, ffs, will ye all just shut up and start buying houses again!!!!!

Or else I'm going to be stuck living with the same bunch of muppets for another 30 years :pac: :pac:

ravendude

ForegoneReality wrote: »

Cork City seems to be holding it's own. Buying in Rochestown, Douglas, Blackrock or Bishopstown is still phenomenally expensive. Go out east and Midleton, Youghal and Dungarvan are also ridiculously overpriced.

Something has to give. I have a feeling a lot of builders are 'sitting' and hoping beyond hope that they can still get a large percentage profit; as opposed to fixing prices sooner and having these places shifted.

That's my observation in Cork as well, I think to be honest, there's a huge raft of overpriced property sitting there with no hope of selling. I see heaps of houses in the areas you mention above advertised for a year or more.

As they say, we're probably still in the "denial" stage of the bear market, maybe creaping into the "concern" stage where people begin to wonder whether it is best to cut their losses. The "panic" stage will kick in sooner or later and thats when things will get really interesting.

I reckon next year will be an extremely interesting time......

Freddie59

ravendude wrote: »

That's my observation in Cork as well, I think to be honest, there's a huge raft of overpriced property sitting there with no hope of selling. I see heaps of houses in the areas you mention above advertised for a year or more.

As they say, we're probably still in the "denial" stage of the bear market, maybe creaping into the "concern" stage where people begin to wonder whether it is best to cut their losses. The "panic" stage will kick in sooner or later and thats when things will get really interesting.

I reckon next year will be an extremely interesting time......

We sold our house in September (sale completed and moved two weeks ago). Living in Waterford, and it's accepted that prices here have not fallen as much as they have nationally - but are expected to toe the line. We took about a 10% hit on our own home (initially asking €265k which was the going rate for the estate we were in and for the condition the house was in) and eventually settled for €238k.

We're currently renting a 4-bed semi, which was on the market for €300k+ this time last year. Over the 12 months it has dropped to €295k, then €275k, then €265k. One nearby has now come on the market for €250k.

Currently the 3-beds in the estate are selling for around €255k - now one of them has come on for €225k. Tempting. But there could be some drops to come yet. Talked to someone in the property game and he says mid-2009 will be the time to buy - but not before.

An interesting 2009 indeed.

BobbyD10

ravendude wrote: »

Absolutely, asking prices are still crazy. The vast majority if sellers still seem to have ridiculous expectations, i.e. Wanting to get what the house is "worth" (a.k.a. What the house was worth at the height of an unsustainable boom, which is now history).

I'd say the drop in prices are reflective of that small subset that actually goes so far as getting sold. i.e. Those who are willing to lower there expectations.

Hippo wrote: »

This is exactly the problem, asking prices are still miles ahead of any reasonable multiple of rents, and even with low interest rates until the prices come down sufficiently there'll be little or no market activity.

I firmly believe that the people you drop the prices of their houses and especially apartments will get some of their money back from their over inflated purchase.

Those who don't will sell at an even lower price than the people that lower them now, hope that makes sense.

2009 could be even worse than this year, especially unemployment, I think alot of business and shops are hoping for a good Xmas to keep them afloat and if that is not forthcoming further losses could be in store. I just hope we don't see a big employer pull out as this has the potential for others to follow suit.

niceirishfella

BobbyD10 wrote: »

I firmly believe that the people you drop the prices of their houses and especially apartments will get some of their money back from their over inflated purchase.

Those who don't will sell at an even lower price than the people that lower them now, hope that makes sense.

2009 could be even worse than this year, especially unemployment, I think alot of business and shops are hoping for a good Xmas to keep them afloat and if that is not forthcoming further losses could be in store. I just hope we don't see a big employer pull out as this has the potential for others to follow suit.

Regardless of developers/banks etc dropping prices on houses and apts, if a massive employer like Dell for instance shut up shop next year in Limerick for example, it'd wipe out parts of Limerick and confidence would be gone and no house would sell even if they were dirt cheap.

Duckjob

BobbyD10 wrote: »

2009 could be even worse than this year, especially unemployment, I think alot of business and shops are hoping for a good Xmas to keep them afloat and if that is not forthcoming further losses could be in store. I just hope we don't see a big employer pull out as this has the potential for others to follow suit.

Sadly, I suspect the worse case scenarios you're outlining there are the most likely ones for 2009

niceirishfella

i hope not.

johnnyskeleton

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Data protection legislation my hole. I wonder how often hes trotted that one out.

The UK has quite similar data protection legislation and I would imagine their data protection commission is much more active than ours, so it's amazing that they can have a house price register and we can't. I honestly can't see how house price information is personal data as a lot of people bid at auctions thus making the price they pay public.

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Thats right folks, Keith Lowe unlike all the peasants has been reading the tea leaves and is here to tell you that the crash is over, so buy buy buy! For gods sake he hasn't paid off the third wing on the villa yet, throw the man a bone!

What separates this assertion from other assertions that the crash is over is that now nobody believes it.

SimpleSam06

Freddie59 wrote: »

Talked to someone in the property game and he says mid-2009 will be the time to buy - but not before.

Assuming the market does bottom out then, there will be no rush to buy. Prices aren't going to hit bottom then rebound back into the stratosphere, they'll hit bottom and then slowly rise with inflation, which is to say they effectively won't rise by much. So no need to feel pressured in any way.

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I honestly can't see how house price information is personal data as a lot of people bid at auctions thus making the price they pay public.

Even if it was personal information (and its not) theres no reason it couldn't be published as an aggregate over time, the only format in which it would be useful anyway.

johnnyskeleton

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Assuming the market does bottom out then, there will be no rush to buy. Prices aren't going to hit bottom then rebound back into the stratosphere, they'll hit bottom and then slowly rise with inflation, which is to say they effectively won't rise by much. So no need to feel pressured in any way.

Which, if we are heading towards a period of deflation (maybe I'm reading the pin too much), would mean that prices will keep dropping or stay the same.

Pa ElGrande

If estate agents and other (mis)leading economists comments are to be believed since the top of the market two years ago the housing market has seen more bottoms than a box of Pampers.
We are in a global economic depression and we will be lucky to see a bottom in Ireland by 2011 (that's still my prediction), it all depends now on what mistakes the government will make to compound the problem and extend the downturn.

In general house prices cannot stop falling until the following conditions are met:

• Unemployment stops falling (every possibility to hit 18% by 2011)
• Oversupply in some areas is cleared up. (in some areas this will not happen)
• Taxes stop rising. (bank guarantees, pension bailouts and government spending programs are not free)
• Banks have sufficient capital to begin lending again. (billions to write off having bet a load on overpriced land)
• Wages stop falling. (less hours worked and surplus labour drive prices down)

Eric318

A lot of sensible comments in this thread.

The outlook is indeed grim and many estate agents have not been hit too hard yet as they have quite a lot cash stashed away after the boom years, so they are not in a hurry to tell their sellers to wake up and smell the sour coffee.

We want to buy and I have been following the market where I live and there are twice as many houses for sale this week as there were in May (now about 200). Asking prices have come down about 15% and the houses are simply not selling. In the estate where we rent, there are... 72 (yes seventy two) brand new houses that have been taken off the market. The asking price used to be €1.2M a pop. That is some money gathering dust up the hill...

From evidence that I gather from friends who are also in the market but on the selling side, a thumb rule of 40% under peak price is a good one for anybody who actually wants to sell/buy at the moment. When you do the maths, this actually makes sense in terms of yearly growth from 2000 prices.

The problem though is that even at that price, buyers (like me) are just concerned that they will have a job next year and be able to pay the mortgage. This anxiety is unlikely to go away fast, regardless of the price of houses... so buyers will be few.

Plus, if you had cash to invest today, you would be buying the UK, the £ is being hammered and soon with 0% interest rate, you cant beat that...

Plus, the EU is not going to hurry to rescue Ireland if it needs it... now that it voted no...

My view is that things will get worse and house prices will tumble, simply because few will be wanting to take risks and more will be needing to sell.

Overall, if you look at the way the global stock markets have been doing, we are on the same trajectory and at the same speed as the 1929 depression, already much worse that any other recession since then and the central banks and governments are running out of options to curb the fall. We hear "slump" but nobody wants to use the D word...

Oil producing countries have slashed the price of oil (imagine, from $150 to approaching $40) forecasting a drop in demand. Now that the refinery capacity (shortage of which caused the stratospheric rise) is in place, there will be much less to refine as the world slows down, companies shut down factories (will Obama manage to actually rescue GM?).

This does not make me any better though because like most, I am not sure I will have a job next year and I am still far from getting my own house (and my wife is going nuts...). Imagine buying now at a good price and having to sell next year for €100K less... That would be a bummer hey...

oceanclub

Freddie59 wrote: »

Talked to someone in the property game and he says mid-2009 will be the time to buy - but not before.

An interesting 2009 indeed.

I'm just curious, but what was this person's previous track record on predicting the actual property crash.

P.

Freddie59

oceanclub wrote: »

I'm just curious, but what was this person's previous track record on predicting the actual property crash.

P.

Renowned guy on the local property scene (not an EA). Has been VERY accurate to date.

oceanclub

Freddie59 wrote: »

Renowned guy on the local property scene (not an EA). Has been VERY accurate to date.

I presume he sold all his property in 2005 then.

P.

20goto10

Eric318 wrote: »

A lot of sensible comments in this thread.

The outlook is indeed grim and many estate agents have not been hit too hard yet as they have quite a lot cash stashed away after the boom years, so they are not in a hurry to tell their sellers to wake up and smell the sour coffee.

We want to buy and I have been following the market where I live and there are twice as many houses for sale this week as there were in May (now about 200). Asking prices have come down about 15% and the houses are simply not selling. In the estate where we rent, there are... 72 (yes seventy two) brand new houses that have been taken off the market. The asking price used to be €1.2M a pop. That is some money gathering dust up the hill...

From evidence that I gather from friends who are also in the market but on the selling side, a thumb rule of 40% under peak price is a good one for anybody who actually wants to sell/buy at the moment. When you do the maths, this actually makes sense in terms of yearly growth from 2000 prices.

The problem though is that even at that price, buyers (like me) are just concerned that they will have a job next year and be able to pay the mortgage. This anxiety is unlikely to go away fast, regardless of the price of houses... so buyers will be few.

Plus, if you had cash to invest today, you would be buying the UK, the £ is being hammered and soon with 0% interest rate, you cant beat that...

Plus, the EU is not going to hurry to rescue Ireland if it needs it... now that it voted no...

My view is that things will get worse and house prices will tumble, simply because few will be wanting to take risks and more will be needing to sell.

Overall, if you look at the way the global stock markets have been doing, we are on the same trajectory and at the same speed as the 1929 depression, already much worse that any other recession since then and the central banks and governments are running out of options to curb the fall. We hear "slump" but nobody wants to use the D word...

Oil producing countries have slashed the price of oil (imagine, from $150 to approaching $40) forecasting a drop in demand. Now that the refinery capacity (shortage of which caused the stratospheric rise) is in place, there will be much less to refine as the world slows down, companies shut down factories (will Obama manage to actually rescue GM?).

This does not make me any better though because like most, I am not sure I will have a job next year and I am still far from getting my own house (and my wife is going nuts...). Imagine buying now at a good price and having to sell next year for €100K less... That would be a bummer hey...

*Yawn* And we might get hit by an asteroid tomorrow.

Are you renting? If so you're more likely to lose your home than if you had a mortgage.

oceanclub

20goto10 wrote: »

*Yawn* And we might get hit by an asteroid tomorrow.

So I presume by that you mean that you should never worry about tomorrow. I trust you live up to this care-free philosophy by not having any savings or insurance.

Are you renting? If so you're more likely to lose your home than if you had a mortgage.

There's a glut of rental properties out there, at a fraction of the price of a mortgage. Even if worse comes to worst you are evicted, you will lose at most your deposit.

If you lose your mortgaged home, you will lose any deposit you paid on that house, plus any negative equity (the difference between the current price and the original price).

Your head-in-the-sand approach that the boom would never die, that everything is rose, that Ireland was a new paradigm with "sound" fundamentals, is the reason why there are now people who mortgaged themselves to the hilt (sometimes with not one but several properties) now writing the Joe Duffy show saying they wish they were dead.

P.

20goto10

oceanclub wrote: »

So I presume by that you mean that you should never worry about tomorrow. I trust you live up to this care-free philosophy by not having any savings or insurance.

Your presumption is incorrect. What I mean is I'm tired of hearing people moan. We're in a recession, we all get it. Now can I get on with my life please? At some point everyone is going to have to just get on with things because very simply if we don't then we will never see the end of the recession. Some people will choose to sit it out and let other people do all the work. Thats fine. After all, they say a recession separates the men from the boys.

oceanclub wrote: »

If you lose your mortgaged home, you will lose any deposit you paid on that house, plus any negative equity (the difference between the current price and the original price).

You will not lose your home just because you have lost your job. This is a misconception. Its extremely difficult for the banks to reposses a home. On the other hand, a landlord can and 99% of the time will evict you for missing your rent payments.

oceanclub wrote: »

Your head-in-the-sand approach that the boom would never die

To have your head in the sand is to sit around with your life on hold and do nothing but moan about the recession and your fears of losing your job. How is getting on with life putting my head in the sand?

oceanclub

20goto10 wrote: »

Your presumption is incorrect. What I mean is I'm tired of hearing people moan. We're in a recession, we all get it. Now can I get on with my life please? At some point everyone is going to have to just get on with things because very simply if we don't then we will never see the end of the recession. Some people will choose to sit it out and let other people do all the work. Thats fine. After all, they say a recession separates the men from the boys.

One man's "moaning" seems to be another man's rational summing up of the current situation.

Funnily enough, I'm also big on individual responsibility. I, who didn't buy a house because I saw all this coming, is now expected to bail out both rich developers and idiots who over-mortgaged themselves.

You will not lose your home just because you have lost your job. This is a misconception. Its extremely difficult for the banks to reposses a home.

During the third quarter of 2008 alone, 1,006 writs and summonses were issued in Northern Ireland alone. In 3 months of the year in the UK, there were 10,000. This isn't counting voluntary handovers. Do you consider Ireland to be different? Oh wait, yes, it's the new paradigm.

On the other hand, a landlord can and 99% of the time will evict you for missing your rent payments.

And my point is that it is far easier to manage rent repayments than mortgage repayments.

To have your head in the sand is to sit around with your life on hold and do nothing but moan about the recession and your fears of losing your job. How is getting on with life putting my head in the sand?

The first thing to do with dealing a problem is confronting the scale of it. Personally, I have 6 years' worth of rent stashed away.

P.

Dob74

20goto10 wrote: »

Your presumption is incorrect. What I mean is I'm tired of hearing people moan. We're in a recession, we all get it. Now can I get on with my life please? At some point everyone is going to have to just get on with things because very simply if we don't then we will never see the end of the recession. Some people will choose to sit it out and let other people do all the work. Thats fine. After all, they say a recession separates the men from the boys.

Who is moaning? I think its a good thing that house prices are falling. They have been at an unrealistic for to long. I bought in 2000 and my house almost tripled in value in 5 years. What good is that to me? Unless I took out another mortage(which i didnt thank god). The recession has shown all the so called men up. The banks, all these developers have been shown up for what they are, nothing more than a bunch of chancers.
All of us tax payers have bailed out these dead beats out. If you want to separate the men from the boys we should let the banks crash. Why should the tax payer prop them up?
We have bailed out the banks and no has fallen on there sword.

20goto10

oceanclub wrote: »

During the third quarter of 2008 alone, 1,006 writs and summonses were issued in Northern Ireland alone. In 3 months of the year in the UK, there were 10,000. This isn't counting voluntary handovers. Do you consider Ireland to be different? Oh wait, yes, it's the new paradigm.

We're not the UK. So funnily enough yes I would consider us different. Mainly because we were not largely caught up in the sub prime fiasco. I know there was some dabbling in it (Start Mortgages for example) but it was small time.

I'll say it again, you will not lose your home if you lose your job. You might do if you were a sub prime borrower and lose your job. But the sub prime market is completely dead so I'm afraid that sort of talk falls under the doom story/scaremongering category...sorry to use the doom and gloom phrase but thats exactly what it is.

20goto10

Dob74 wrote: »

Who is moaning?

Eric318 is.

jmayo

20goto10 wrote: »

Your presumption is incorrect. What I mean is I'm tired of hearing people moan. We're in a recession, we all get it. Now can I get on with my life please? At some point everyone is going to have to just get on with things because very simply if we don't then we will never see the end of the recession. Some people will choose to sit it out and let other people do all the work. Thats fine. After all, they say a recession separates the men from the boys.

You will not lose your home just because you have lost your job. This is a misconception. Its extremely difficult for the banks to reposses a home. On the other hand, a landlord can and 99% of the time will evict you for missing your rent payments.

To have your head in the sand is to sit around with your life on hold and do nothing but moan about the recession and your fears of losing your job. How is getting on with life putting my head in the sand?

Yeah you tell them 20goto10.
I have never come across such a bunch of cynics as on this thread.
It is terrible to think we are forgetting how much the poor Estate Agents and their friends the developes have contributed to this country.
They have worked tirelessly helping to mould our nations' fine leaders and helped shape the landscape of this fine country.

20goto10 is right, it is unheard of for Irish financial institutions to reposess people's homes. It as ludricous as the possibility of say the world's largest banks running our of money.

Remember, a house is just not bricks and mortar, it is a home.
Maybe it is negative equity today, but you will look back in twenty years and see what a basement level price you paid for that apartment in Clonee.
Why can't people see the fact that signing up to a 40 year mortgage is not bad, it gives you a focal point in your life and you will have finished paying it off just as you reach your retirement.
Stop moaning everyone. Suck it in and help the government and their poor almost destitude friends, the developers.
Doesn't anybody here realise how hard it is to go back to driving after your helicopter has been reposessed.
Dear God have some consideration, especially at this festive charitable time.

All contributions are welcome but please we ask you to use brown wiggins teape envelopes as standard.

oceanclub

20goto10 wrote: »

We're not the UK. So funnily enough yes I would consider us different. Mainly because we were not largely caught up in the sub prime fiasco. I know there was some dabbling in it (Start Mortgages for example) but it was small time.

The UK sub-prime market is a mere 8 percent of mortgages (compared to 20 in the US). Start Mortgages here is responsible for only 40% of the 200 repossession orders per month coming before Irish courts.

You are Liz O'Kane, and I claim my five pounds.

P.

Dob74

20goto10 wrote: »

Eric318 is.

Just read his post. Doesnt look like moaning to me. Dont know why anyone who isnt a cheerleader for the property market is labled a moaner. The market is going down after rediculace gains. Time for investors to find somewhere else to put there money. And leave houses find there real value.

oceanclub

Dob74 wrote: »

Just read his post. Doesnt look like moaning to me. Dont know why anyone who isnt a cheerleader for the property market is labled a moaner.

Because it wasn't in the vested interests of either the government or of the media. Anyone who questioned the status quo was told by our previous Taoiseach to commit suicide.

Consider these facts:

* In 2006, direct property tax revenues amounted to 17% of total tax revenues. This could exceed 30% when the indirect impact on income tax and VAT was included.

* 60% of the Irish Times advertising revenue came from property. The business editor of the Sunday Tribune was sacked for pointing out the hypocrisy of a property agent who was talking up the market while unable to sell his own house.

* 1 in 5 of the private workforce depended directly on construction.

* The number of residential mortgages _doubled_ between 2003 and 2006_.

P.

Eric318

20goto10 wrote: »

Eric318 is.

He he, interestingly, I am quite upbeat actually because things are looking pretty good for me. So may be there is a language issue here, I will have to polish my second language skills further. I am sad for those who will suffer though.

My point is that things are bad, in fact very bad. Denial is one strategy and may actually be the best one as there is nothing much we can do at our level. It is not mine, I like to know.

I am not too sure about the argument that one might be worse off renting right now. It probably depends on your mortgage level compared to rent. One thing is mathematically clear though, is that if money is your sole concern, you are currently better off renting than buying. You can then put your money into another investment than your home and pocket interest. The way to calculate this is to work out the present value of a perpetual rent at the current interest savings rates: annual rent divided by savings rate: this is how much the house you rent is actually worth. The satisfaction of having your own home still comes at a huge premium.

But, hey its a free world...

Fozzie Bear

Sign of the times............

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?search=Search+%BB&s[cc_id]=c19&s[address]=lydacan&s[txt]=&s[mnb]=&s[mxb]=&s[mnp]=&s[mxp]=&s[pt_id]=&s[house_type]=&s[sqmn]=&s[sqmx]=&s[mna]=&s[mxa]=&s[npt_id]=&s[days_old]=&s[new]=&s[agreed]=&s[search_type]=sale&s[transport]=&s[advanced]=true&s[price_per_room]=&s[furn]=&s[refreshmap]=1&limit=10&id=420863

tedstriker

Here is the chart of house prices in Ireland since 1996:

http://www.statusireland.com/statistics/property-house-price-statistics-for-ireland/3/Irish-House-Prices-Since-1996.html

The crash in the housing sector has only started. It will drop to about 50-60% of peak. It must in order for the country to get back in order. It will be a decade before some houses reach the value that they were bought at.