Cost of housing forecast

NewFrockTuesday

I know its been touched on a few times in the last few weeks, but I just wanted to find out if anyone has a more in-depth forecast other than the downward spiral of prices.

How long do you think this will keep going and where do you think it will level out? Whats life at rock bottom going to be like here as a buyer or seller? How long - if ever - would it take to rise again? I ask this as I was talking to a friend of mine, who I would normally consider to be a very clever guy - and I mean can make money out of anything, and has - economics deg and masters. I couldnt believe what he was coming out with and am afraid he is gone a bit David Ike on me. :pac:

His view is that not only will housing keep falling, but so much money is going to be lost that (and these are his exact words) "the gardai wont be able to control whats going to happen in this country next year". :eek:

Now, I think thats very very extreme (at least I bloody hope it is) - but is there a chance that he could be right? I ask this in relation to property but maybe an over all view mightnt hurt either. Are we facing meltdown? Is this part of the recession going to look like childsplay in a years time? Why are we still surprised this has happenned? It was called even on these pages a property "bubble" indicating a finite growth peroid....will this happen again in the next 50 years?

Or should I just get B locked up now?

mikemac

Deepsense wrote: »

His view is that not only will housing keep falling, but so much money is going to be lost that (and these are his exact words) "the gardai wont be able to control whats going to happen in this country next year". :eek:

Time to stock up on tinned food, bottled water......and a shotgun

It'll be survival of the fittest :pac:

The_Conductor

I can well believe that there may be marches on the Dail complete with minor rioting. I wouldn't be surprised to be honest. Prices are consistently falling- by varying degrees, month on month- sometimes Dublin property fares better than provincial property, sometimes the inverse. The people who were suggesting a 50% fall from peak prices, now look to have been a tad conservative with their predictions. Buy to let investors are already in a bad way (particularly now that rental income is beginning a freefall too). The real fun will start when the occupants of the 220,000 First Time Buyer units, decide that they have outlived their first step on the property ladder and now need more appropriate accommodation...... They will be the straw that breaks the camels back.......

NewFrockTuesday

Seriously, thats what he thinks! I wouldnt be surprised if I saw him digging a bunker out the back. And I have to say again - this was one of the sanest men Ive ever met. If you asked me last year if I thought I would hear those words out of his mouth, Idda put money on saying no.

I need this debunked fast!

The_Conductor

Deepsense wrote: »

Seriously, thats what he thinks! I wouldnt be surprised if I saw him digging a bunker out the back. And I have to say again - this was one of the sanest men Ive ever met. If you asked me last year if I thought I would hear those words out of his mouth, Idda put money on saying no.

I need this debunked fast!

Why do you need this debunked?
The country is in big trouble- only it hasn't clicked in the consciousness of the vast majority of the population the seriousness of it just yet.....
The main thing economists have been guilty of to date, is stoking irrational exuberance on the part of the both business and also the population at large.

Our banks are in trouble, our taxation revenue is sinking through the floor, our dole queues are lengthening and people expect the government to be in a position to bail them out. It ain't gonna happen. Even the international investors interested in recapitalising our banking sector are trying to negotiate an open ended government guarantee a la the September bailout........

We are on the abyss of a 1930s style great depression on a global scale. It took a world war to correct that one- 17 years later- what will happen here, and what will the catalyst be?

NewFrockTuesday

Why do you need this debunked?

Why wouldnt anyone want it debunked?! I want to know that Im not going to fighting Mrs Nolan down the road for the last tin of beans in the supermarket.

The country is in big trouble- only it hasn't clicked in the consciousness of the vast majority of the population the seriousness of it just yet.....
The main thing economists have been guilty of to date, is stoking irrational exuberance on the part of the both business and also the population at large.

Our banks are in trouble, our taxation revenue is sinking through the floor, our dole queues are lengthening and people expect the government to be in a position to bail them out. It ain't gonna happen. Even the international investors interested in recdo you think is going to happenapitalising our banking sector are trying to negotiate an open ended government guarantee a la the September bailout........

We are on the abyss of a 1930s style great depression on a global scale. It took a world war to correct that one- 17 years later- what will happen here, and what will the catalyst be?

Youre scaring me now. The bunker aint looking so bad after all with what youve just written. What do you think is going to happen?

SimpleSam06

Deepsense wrote: »

but so much money is going to be lost that (and these are his exact words) "the gardai wont be able to control whats going to happen in this country next year". :eek:

Now, I think thats very very extreme (at least I bloody hope it is) - but is there a chance that he could be right?

I would view it as a distinct possiblity. My major concern about widespread "street activity" is that there might be a backlash against economic migrants and refugees of various sorts. My own wife (asian) works in a shop here in Galway and she has mentioned an increasingly sour attitude about foreigners in the last month or so among her customers. Needless to say that would be the main economic bonus we do have left, tourism, torpedoed, as if exchange rates weren't doing enough of a job on it already.

blast05

The real fun will start when the occupants of the 220,000 First Time Buyer units, decide that they have outlived their first step on the property ladder and now need more appropriate accommodation

Outline the scenario you reckon will happen here .... cos i would have thought that if first time buyers have no hope of selling their existing property then they have no hope of getting a bigger place.

NewFrockTuesday

The real fun will start when the occupants of the 220,000 First Time Buyer units, decide that they have outlived their first step on the property ladder and now need more appropriate accommodation

Outline the scenario you reckon will happen here .... cos i would have thought that if first time buyers have no hope of selling their existing property then they have no hope of getting a bigger place.

Will this make prices decrease more? Hows the pyramid looking at this point - say, 5 years into the future when the second or third child has come along and its time to get out of the apartment outside Castleknock or whereever and get into a house or bigger apartment. Why were there so few four and five bed apts built? Youre looking at Dublin city center penthouse mostly if you want to go anywhere above 3 bed in an apartment. Most people cant afford them.....will this change?

When can we expect to see minimum wage go down? Or will we? Not on topic but just wondering.

The_Conductor

I don't think you'll be fighting Mrs. Nolan down the road for the last tin of beans in the Supermarket by any means- I wouldn't be surprised at localised rioting- most probably in conjunction with organised demonstrations/marches on the Dail, Minister's Constituency Offices etc.

A timescale? Well- next year is vague- but its probably not possible to get any clearer- its pretty much whenever the penny starts to drop about the trouble we are in.

Remember the 1980s when the country was in deep trouble? At that point in time private debt stood at roughly 36% of GDP and government debt at roughly 160% of GDP. Almost 65% of all government revenue was spent in servicing our debt.

The situation now is practically the inverse of where we were then- the government has very low debt (now about 40% and rising)- but the private debt is through the stratosphere- well over 160% of GDP.

People are being bled dry- a few more clankers like the 23% VHI rise in January, or Dell deciding to relocate to Poland- or Intel close the Fabs in Leixlip........

There was the perception that it wouldn't pay to rock the boat- but the perception is rapidly changing to "what have we to loose?" Giving in to the OAPs on the medical card was in my mind the start of a slippery slope. There is now a perception that if you demonstrate loud enough and cause sufficient embarrassment/trouble- that your particular issue will be accommodated.

We are a remarkably expensive country- with very high wages, dependent to a large extent on multinational employment.

The international environment is such that overseas facilities will be on the chopping block for multinationals sooner or later- and as an expensive location- we will be well up the list.

Economically we are dependent on factors over which we have extremely limited control. Socially- the government cannot be said to exercise control any longer (having been seen to capitulate in the face of demonstrations).

Will you be fighting Mrs Nolan for the last tin of beans. No, probably not. Will Mrs Nolan fling a brick through your car window out of spite because its a newer reg than hers, and she knows damn well she won't be able to afford a replacement car for years to come- far more likely than the fight over the tin of beans!

The_Conductor

blast05 wrote: »

Outline the scenario you reckon will happen here .... cos i would have thought that if first time buyers have no hope of selling their existing property then they have no hope of getting a bigger place.

Correct.
The assumption when purchasing (stoked in no small amount by both politicians and the media) was that property was a safe investment, and if you did not "get your foot on the property ladder" that you risked being left behind. Thousands of people bought into that hyperbole, purchasing property which is wholly unsuitable to their longterm needs, on the expectation that they would trade up at a later point in time.

These "later points in time" are accumulating. People have kids without recreational space, a car without anywhere to park it, paper thin walls (that do meet minimum standards- but allow you to hear your neighbour urinating in the small hours, or rumpty dumpty earlier in the evening), in short- highly unsuitable accommodation.

Its very easy to say- they made their own nest, they should lie in it- but this is a sizeable number of extremely disgruntled unhappy people.

Add to these people the lengthening queues of unemployed- many of whom have become accustomed to living the good life (why not- when a bricklayer was making just under 4 times the salary of a junior doctor?), the middle classes (who haven't a red penny after all the indirect taxation hikes), and the upper classes (who traditionally had their money hidden away, but have now been wiped out with the stock market crashes- particularly of the banking shares (a surprising number of wealthy individuals were solely living off dividend income). Throw into the equation- a 30-40 billion deficit in pension funds for those who are in work and making contributions to their schemes- what does that leave you with? A very unhappy population that are skint and likely to be looking for scapegoats.

NewFrockTuesday

Never liked her anyway

Thanks. Thats really informative and really simply put.

Correct.
The assumption when purchasing (stoked in no small amount by both politicians and the media) was that property was a safe investment, and if you did not "get your foot on the property ladder" that you risked being left behind. Thousands of people bought into that hyperbole, purchasing property which is wholly unsuitable to their longterm needs, on the expectation that they would trade up at a later point in time.

These "later points in time" are accumulating. People have kids without recreational space, a car without anywhere to park it, paper thin walls (that do meet minimum standards- but allow you to hear your neighbour urinating in the small hours, or rumpty dumpty earlier in the evening), in short- highly unsuitable accommodation.

Its very easy to say- they made their own nest, they should lie in it- but this is a sizeable number of extremely disgruntled unhappy people.

Do you think these people are stuck in these apartments? So say, using Castleknock again, some nice developments out there on the outskirts, but upkeep and maintanance become ow priority when moneys tight - does this mena we can look forward to large pockets of terrible looking apartments in years to come ala mini Ballymuns/Darndales all over the place? Im not picking on Castleknock, Clare Hall is another example of a place not great to start with and going nowhere but down. And proximity to an area that isint as desirable as Castleknock, surely the social influences could be diasterous?

Add to these people the lengthening queues of unemployed- many of whom have become accustomed to living the good life (why not- when a bricklayer was making just under 4 times the salary of a junior doctor?), the middle classes (who haven't a red penny after all the indirect taxation hikes), and the upper classes (who traditionally had their money hidden away, but have now been wiped out with the stock market crashes- particularly of the banking shares (a surprising number of wealthy individuals were solely living off dividend income). Throw into the equation- a 30-40 billion deficit in pension funds for those who are in work and making contributions to their schemes- what does that leave you with? A very unhappy population that are skint and likely to be looking for scapegoats.

Im emigrating! Youre painting a very bleak picutre here. So, basically everyones unhappy?

bill_ashmount

Deepsense wrote: »

Im emigrating! Youre painting a very bleak picutre here. So, basically everyones unhappy?

lol, if you emigrate because what someone on boards wrote you need serious mental help. Phone a doctor before you leave.

Dob74

Deepsense wrote: »

I know its been touched on a few times in the last few weeks, but I just wanted to find out if anyone has a more in-depth forecast other than the downward spiral of prices.

How long do you think this will keep going and where do you think it will level out? Whats life at rock bottom going to be like here as a buyer or seller? How long - if ever - would it take to rise again? I ask this as I was talking to a friend of mine, who I would normally consider to be a very clever guy - and I mean can make money out of anything, and has - economics deg and masters. I couldnt believe what he was coming out with and am afraid he is gone a bit David Ike on me. :pac:

His view is that not only will housing keep falling, but so much money is going to be lost that (and these are his exact words) "the gardai wont be able to control whats going to happen in this country next year". :eek:

Now, I think thats very very extreme (at least I bloody hope it is) - but is there a chance that he could be right? I ask this in relation to property but maybe an over all view mightnt hurt either. Are we facing meltdown? Is this part of the recession going to look like childsplay in a years time? Why are we still surprised this has happenned? It was called even on these pages a property "bubble" indicating a finite growth peroid....will this happen again in the next 50 years?

Or should I just get B locked up now?

I hate to say it, but I agree with your friend. There are alot of problems coming our way and we nothing to stop them. Alot of people are pretty pissed of with the level of immigrants coming in and forcing down wages.(I know its not the immigrants fault but the double egded sword of liberal immigration is about to hit in the ass. 26k irish lost there jobs last year. 0 non-irish. www.cso.ie)
The banking are so f**ked its not even funny. The tax payer will have to bail out the banks(including there highly paid exes) or there will be massive lay offs for those businesses needing loans and the banks.
The public finances are 10 billion in the hole. With no sign of improving.
The end is near, maybe for all of us.

blast05

The banking are so f**ked its not even funny

Over the last 3-6 months the banks have been very busy getting their loan to deposit ratio back in order ... and they apparently have been relatively successful in doing this through a bonds issue at a reduced rate due to the state guarantee and not paying dividends and existing loans being reudced by another few billion over the last few months and with many loans being called in. Add in that mortgages have all but dried up over the last few months no matter how bullet proof the credentials of the person applying (i re-mortgaged about 3 months and it seems i got in just in time).

So all in all i'm actually quite bullish on the banks over the next few months, i.e.: say BoI shares to hit back to €4 or €5 (i bought a batch at 93 cent !). Further evidence on this front could be taken from RBOS being the first bank to start aggressively chasing new business ..... among other things they are now have the best rates on the market.

Of course the big bear in the closet is the big developers who are in trouble .... the banks are obviously continuing to allow them get away with failing to repay their loans (giving them extended grace periods). This will be the real test - probably in a few months time - hopefully the week after i sell my newly bought batch

murphym7

According to the Indo in October 30,000 immigrants have left Ireland so far this year, with a further 35,000 expected to leave in 2009 (conservative IMO). This is just a figure for immigrants who have come here and does not included Irish people emmigrating.

All these people lived somewhere, if you look at having 4 person occupancy per property, thats 16,250 free houses/appartments. Thats on top of all the empty houses/apparments that are already on the market.

Developers are still building (because they have no choice I think) and that will add 20 - 25,000 new builds to the mix.

The rules of supply and demand keep ringing in my head from college. Property prices can and will do only one thing. The money will be made from the people who can accuratley forecast the bottom and you'd want to be good to predict that one.

My wife and I want to but our own house and are ready to go for it but we are nervous as hell about it. I'm not to bothered about going into negative equity for a bit, as this will be our home for life (hopefully!) and if you ar ebuying a "home" then I am inclined to just go for it, well in a year maybe. But if anything goes wrong like losing our jobs, illness etc....the negative equity could ruin us.

NewFrockTuesday

lol, if you emigrate because what someone on boards wrote you need serious mental help. Phone a doctor before you leave.

And if you believe everything you read, I'll pass his number onto you.

Over the last 3-6 months the banks have been very busy getting their loan to deposit ratio back in order ... and they apparently have been relatively successful in doing this through a bonds issue at a reduced rate due to the state guarantee and not paying dividends and existing loans being reudced by another few billion over the last few months and with many loans being called in. Add in that mortgages have all but dried up over the last few months no matter how bullet proof the credentials of the person applying (i re-mortgaged about 3 months and it seems i got in just in time).

So all in all i'm actually quite bullish on the banks over the next few months, i.e.: say BoI shares to hit back to €4 or €5 (i bought a batch at 93 cent !). Further evidence on this front could be taken from RBOS being the first bank to start aggressively chasing new business ..... among other things they are now have the best rates on the market.

Of course the big bear in the closet is the big developers who are in trouble .... the banks are obviously continuing to allow them get away with failing to repay their loans (giving them extended grace periods). This will be the real test - probably in a few months time - hopefully the week after i sell my newly bought batch

I wonder if there are many out there who would agree with you? I have to say, I do find myself for some unknown reason, fairly chipper about houses prices here. If they go down they go down, but sure there is only so far they can go? I can certainly see casualties of the market - those being the Calre Hall 1 & 2 beds, but how many times do people buy and sell in their life time? Im throwing twice - maybe three times out there - if they strike it rich....or lose the lots and have to down grade. Is there a possibility that there may be an extra rung on the ladder at the end of all this?

I agree re not afraid of falling into negative equity as have no intention of moving. So maybe its easier for me to say for the moment.

Say 10/15 years ago, we really didnt have an apartment culture. The nearest thing we had were flats and for various reasons, unless you were a student or from a flat area, noone lived in them....nor wanted to.

So when buyers went househunting in their newly wed bliss, they invariably went for a house in an area like say, Doneycarney or Cabra and then maybe moved on. (Yes - this is Dublincentric).

Now they can buy an apartment and then move onto an ex council house then onto whatever. So would it be fair to say that now...and only now....getting on the property ladder has never been easier. Banks are giving mortgages, but at 92% instead of whatever anyone could blaggard of them.

hate to say it, but I agree with your friend. There are alot of problems coming our way and we nothing to stop them. Alot of people are pretty pissed of with the level of immigrants coming in and forcing down wages.(I know its not the immigrants fault but the double egded sword of liberal immigration is about to hit in the ass. 26k irish lost there jobs last year. 0 non-irish. www.cso.ie)
The banking are so f**ked its not even funny. The tax payer will have to bail out the banks(including there highly paid exes) or there will be massive lay offs for those businesses needing loans and the banks.
The public finances are 10 billion in the hole. With no sign of improving.
The end is near, maybe for all of us.

My apologies bill_ashmount, Im back to emigrating again!

bill_ashmount

Deepsense wrote: »

My apologies bill_ashmount, Im back to emigrating again!

Hold the boat, I'm coming with you.......:D

AntiRip

murphym7 wrote: »

According to the Indo in October 30,000 immigrants have left Ireland so far this year, with a further 35,000 expected to leave in 2009 (conservative IMO).

I'm not disagreeing with you but I work in a factory where 70-80% are eastern europeans. I've asked a good few of them what will they do if the place closes (which is very possible next year), will they head back home? All of them have said they'd be mad to go home when they can get more on the dole here in one week than 3/4 weeks back home. One of the guys I'm working with has a nice little packet childrens allowance for 4 children that never been to Ireland. This sort of stuff isn't helping us either I'm afraid.

Hellm0

AntiRip wrote: »

One of the guys I'm working with has a nice little packet childrens allowance for 4 children that never been to Ireland. This sort of stuff isn't helping us either I'm afraid.

You should report that guy, I'm sure others will see him as an example.

johnnyskeleton

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

I would view it as a distinct possiblity. My major concern about widespread "street activity" is that there might be a backlash against economic migrants and refugees of various sorts. My own wife (asian) works in a shop here in Galway and she has mentioned an increasingly sour attitude about foreigners in the last month or so among her customers. Needless to say that would be the main economic bonus we do have left, tourism, torpedoed, as if exchange rates weren't doing enough of a job on it already.

This would also be a concern of mine. I'm thinking that there will be a lot of construction firms who massively strip down their workforces. It's entirely possible that the staff that are kept on will be Eastern Europeans rather than Irish people. This could create massive resentment among unemployed former construction workers.

BobbyD10

smccarrick wrote: »

Correct.
The assumption when purchasing (stoked in no small amount by both politicians and the media) was that property was a safe investment, and if you did not "get your foot on the property ladder" that you risked being left behind. Thousands of people bought into that hyperbole, purchasing property which is wholly unsuitable to their longterm needs, on the expectation that they would trade up at a later point in time.

These "later points in time" are accumulating. People have kids without recreational space, a car without anywhere to park it, paper thin walls (that do meet minimum standards- but allow you to hear your neighbour urinating in the small hours, or rumpty dumpty earlier in the evening), in short- highly unsuitable accommodation.

Its very easy to say- they made their own nest, they should lie in it- but this is a sizeable number of extremely disgruntled unhappy people.

Add to these people the lengthening queues of unemployed- many of whom have become accustomed to living the good life (why not- when a bricklayer was making just under 4 times the salary of a junior doctor?), the middle classes (who haven't a red penny after all the indirect taxation hikes), and the upper classes (who traditionally had their money hidden away, but have now been wiped out with the stock market crashes- particularly of the banking shares (a surprising number of wealthy individuals were solely living off dividend income). Throw into the equation- a 30-40 billion deficit in pension funds for those who are in work and making contributions to their schemes- what does that leave you with? A very unhappy population that are skint and likely to be looking for scapegoats.

I would find this a fairly good assessment. I think it is still early days in this downturn too. Have Credit Suisse and HSBC announced job cuts, other banks may/have follow(ed). I think alot of companies are hoping/depending on a good xmas this year which they may not get. At least it seems to be global and the Eurozone are cutting interest rates, imagine if it was just Ireland.

There is still apartments/houses that are still the same price as they where last year. They are still expecting to achieve maximum price and these could be the one's to suffer most.You could actually talk all day about this topic. :pac:

Senna

Hellm0 wrote: »

You should report that guy, I'm sure others will see him as an example.

He's working here and getting children's allowance for his kids back home. This is 100% legal, might not be a good system, but the government allow it.

blast05

All these people lived somewhere, if you look at having 4 person occupancy per property, thats 16,250 free houses/appartments. Thats on top of all the empty houses/apparments that are already on the market.

Yes, but you could argue that there are a good portion of the 60,000 people who done their Leaving Cert this year who will be moving away from home or whatever. Admittedly most will be going to towns and cities with 3rd level colleges. On that subject i reckon there will be big rental demand anywhere within a 5 mile radius of a 3rd level college from next September as you will see a huge chunks of the graduates from 2009 going on to do postgrads (well the only other option is emigrate but even there the options are limited) and thus fighting for the same accomodation as the new freshers ... it reminds me of when i graduated in the early 90's and went on and started doing a PhD purely cos there were no other opportunities

Developers are still building (because they have no choice I think) and that will add 20 - 25,000 new builds to the mix.

I can't think of too many place where there is building going on right now. I reckon the only building that will be done next year will be 1 off housing on demand.

The_Conductor

Senna wrote: »

He's working here and getting children's allowance for his kids back home. This is 100% legal, might not be a good system, but the government allow it.

I stand to be corrected on this- but he is perfectly entitled to claim the under 6 allowance- but to claim children's allowance, the child, of under 18 years of age, must be living with them.

subway

Dob74 wrote: »

26k irish lost there jobs last year. 0 non-irish. www.cso.ie)

your going to need to prove that ASAP.

NewFrockTuesday

I hate to say it, but I agree with your friend. There are alot of problems coming our way and we nothing to stop them. Alot of people are pretty pissed of with the level of immigrants coming in and forcing down wages.(I know its not the immigrants fault but the double egded sword of liberal immigration is about to hit in the ass. 26k irish lost there jobs last year. 0 non-irish. www.cso.ie)
The banking are so f**ked its not even funny. The tax payer will have to bail out the banks(including there highly paid exes) or there will be massive lay offs for those businesses needing loans and the banks.
The public finances are 10 billion in the hole. With no sign of improving.
The end is near, maybe for all of us.

I think said friend might contribute to this thread today and give his reasoning for such a hysterical outlook.

26k irish lost there jobs last year. 0 non-irish. www.cso.ie)

This is more hysteria .....and untrue.:mad: And your closing sentence is just evangelical in its wrath and glorious hand wringing. Proof or type out 100 times "I must not tell lies on the internet"

Yes, but you could argue that there are a good portion of the 60,000 people who done their Leaving Cert this year who will be moving away from home or whatever. Admittedly most will be going to towns and cities with 3rd level colleges. On that subject i reckon there will be big rental demand anywhere within a 5 mile radius of a 3rd level college from next September as you will see a huge chunks of the graduates from 2009 going on to do postgrads (well the only other option is emigrate but even there the options are limited) and thus fighting for the same accomodation as the new freshers ... it reminds me of when i graduated in the early 90's and went on and started doing a PhD purely cos there were no other opportunities

Finally! Another person with a smigeon of chin up. Well, at least around educational institutions anyway.

So we have enough housing now. Good. And the builders will turn into repair men to mend all the shabby dwellings that were built and they can tut tut and shake their heads at the poor job done - while on the other side of the country, another builder will be doing the same to the apartment/house that they built. I propose a chemical scare of asbestos proportions to happen in 3 years so that everything will have to be ripped down and started again. Maybe something in the wooden floorboards or the glass topped dining room table with the ornate iron wrought backed chairs?

I dont know re the childrens allowance, Ill look it up at lunchtime if it hasnt been answered.

Victor

Dob74 wrote: »

Alot of people are pretty pissed of with the level of immigrants coming in and forcing down wages.(I know its not the immigrants fault but the double egded sword of liberal immigration is about to hit in the ass. 26k irish lost there jobs last year. 0 non-irish. www.cso.ie)

I can't really see a lot of people immigrating at the moment, especially seeing as a lot of immigrants worked in construction and services. Construction is hit by restrictions on lending and services is being hit by reduced discretionary spending.

I imagine quite a few immigrants have lost their jobs and gone home - they are the ones with the least connection to firms, are the most mobile and have the least roots here.

luckat

Of course immigrants are losing their jobs, you only have to listen to Liveline to know that (and don't bother mocking me; everyone rings Liveline, and I heard employers talking to Joe Duffy about letting eastern Europeans go).

How bad will things be? Partly this depends on the Government's handling of the situation; so far, it's not encouraging. They're *still* supporting builders building new homes, even though thousands of homes are lying empty around the country.

They don't seem to be pulling in many new skilled jobs.

They're still favouring the rich over the hard-working in their tax plans.

They're still letting us down on education - vital for the future of the country.

latenia

To the OP: no, your friend isn't completely off the wall. This happened in Europe in this decade:


http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/03/jarvis.htm

The pyramid scheme phenomenon in Albania is important because its scale relative to the size of the economy was unprecedented, and because the political and social consequences of the collapse of the pyramid schemes were profound. At their peak, the nominal value of the pyramid schemes' liabilities amounted to almost half of the country's GDP. Many Albanians—about two-thirds of the population—invested in them. When the schemes collapsed, there was uncontained rioting, the government fell, and the country descended into anarchy and a near civil war in which some 2,000 people were killed.

grizzly

latenia wrote: »

To the OP: no, your friend isn't completely off the wall. This happened in Europe in this decade:


http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/03/jarvis.htm

Very different conditions, Albania suffered decades of rule under a despot.

mrgaa1

and tell me this where are you all going to emigrate to? every other country is f**ked as well - I'm going to say this again and again when are we going to grasp the nettle and do something? There are opportunities out there - buildings need to be upgraded for insulation etc.... I'm sure there are smart people out there thinking of new ideas. The irish government is in trouble - its made a lot of bad mistakes recently and its going to hurt. People are being let go, made redundant all over the place and the true figure is going to hit the fan in January. Banks need to be more friendly to their customers - we all need loans for various projects. They don't care about the small trader trying to make a living - the small trader who has 3-5 people working for them. They don't matter to the banks. This is where its so, so wrong. Morally the banks are wrong and they are scr**ing the wrong people. I say let Michael O'Leary take over for 12 months and run this country - we need leaders and people who will make things happen - not just sit around and talk about it.

latenia

grizzly wrote: »

Very different conditions, Albania suffered decades of rule under a despot.

It's not very different at all. In Ireland, as in Albania, a large percentage of the population were conned into gambling their financial future in a speculative bubble. Many of these people, while they won't be on the breadline, will be spending the rest of their lives far less comfortably than they thought. I don't see how Hoxha's era comes into it. If anything, it would probably leave the people more docile.

Shambo

smccarrick wrote: »

I don't think you'll be fighting Mrs. Nolan down the road for the last tin of beans in the Supermarket by any means- I wouldn't be surprised at localised rioting- most probably in conjunction with organised demonstrations/marches on the Dail, Minister's Constituency Offices etc.

A timescale? Well- next year is vague- but its probably not possible to get any clearer- its pretty much whenever the penny starts to drop about the trouble we are in.

Remember the 1980s when the country was in deep trouble? At that point in time private debt stood at roughly 36% of GDP and government debt at roughly 160% of GDP. Almost 65% of all government revenue was spent in servicing our debt.

The situation now is practically the inverse of where we were then- the government has very low debt (now about 40% and rising)- but the private debt is through the stratosphere- well over 160% of GDP.

People are being bled dry- a few more clankers like the 23% VHI rise in January, or Dell deciding to relocate to Poland- or Intel close the Fabs in Leixlip........

There was the perception that it wouldn't pay to rock the boat- but the perception is rapidly changing to "what have we to loose?" Giving in to the OAPs on the medical card was in my mind the start of a slippery slope. There is now a perception that if you demonstrate loud enough and cause sufficient embarrassment/trouble- that your particular issue will be accommodated.

We are a remarkably expensive country- with very high wages, dependent to a large extent on multinational employment.

The international environment is such that overseas facilities will be on the chopping block for multinationals sooner or later- and as an expensive location- we will be well up the list.

Economically we are dependent on factors over which we have extremely limited control. Socially- the government cannot be said to exercise control any longer (having been seen to capitulate in the face of demonstrations).

Will you be fighting Mrs Nolan for the last tin of beans. No, probably not. Will Mrs Nolan fling a brick through your car window out of spite because its a newer reg than hers, and she knows damn well she won't be able to afford a replacement car for years to come- far more likely than the fight over the tin of beans!

Spot on the SmC

Thsi is the biggest worry I have- at least in the 80's we were coming fromn the 70's where we had feck all but feck all debts.

Who here is up to their eyeballs in Visa/Mortgage/Car Loans etc??.

I work in logistics and imports are way down on last year- even the so called busy period of Oct/Nov has been a wsh out.

I'm very pessimistic abiut next year.

stevedublin

Run_to_da_hills was right all along!
Why didnt we listen to him!?!

ZYX

latenia wrote: »

It's not very different at all. In Ireland, as in Albania, a large percentage of the population were conned into gambling their financial future in a speculative bubble. Many of these people, while they won't be on the breadline, will be spending the rest of their lives far less comfortably than they thought. I don't see how Hoxha's era comes into it. If anything, it would probably leave the people more docile.

It was totally different in Albania. The pyramid scheme in Albania actually bought nothing. In Ireland people who bought a house still have a house even if in some cases it is worth less than the mortgage on it.

ntlbell

ZYX wrote: »

It was totally different in Albania. The pyramid scheme in Albania actually bought nothing. In Ireland people who bought a house still have a house even if in some cases it is worth less than the mortgage on it.

they might not have them for long.....

a lot has all ready lost them...

a house is only secure when the last payment is made.

Dob74

subway wrote: »

your going to need to prove that ASAP.

Go to www.cso.ie its in the monthy survey on the right side of the screen. Go to news releases, november 21, table 1A near the bottom. In black and white 25.2 less irish employed, 42.2 more irish unemployed. 0.0 change in non-irish employed, 11.1 more non irish unemployed.

baldieman

If ye think this is all bad, wait till ye see the weather thats comin!
And maybe why last summer was as bad as it was?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2005746/posts

NewFrockTuesday

Bill, were going to have to more than catch a boat it seems. How are your spaceship building skills? New destination is the moon.


I hate the cold.

ZYX

Dob74 wrote: »

Go to www.cso.ie its in the monthy survey on the right side of the screen. Go to news releases, november 21, table 1A near the bottom. In black and white 25.2 less irish employed, 42.2 more irish unemployed. 0.0 change in non-irish employed, 11.1 more non irish unemployed.

So you are saying o% increase in non-irish employed and 11.1% more non-Irish unemployed. So how does that equate to 0 non-Irish lost their jobs?

Dob74

ZYX wrote: »

So you are saying o% increase in non-irish employed and 11.1% more non-Irish unemployed. So how does that equate to 0 non-Irish lost their jobs?

No. Look at the tables www.cso.ie. 11.1k more non irish unemployed. The same numbers of non irsh are working. 25.2 less irish working. 42.2k more irish unemployed

TwoShedsJackson

Karen Coleman who presents the Sunday morning review-of-the-papers show on Newstalk normally gets on my wick but I had to agree with her last week when she said that her fantasy (on the subject of politics ) was to present the Joe Duffy show for a few days and every person who rings in complaining about prices, the economy, etc. etc. she could ask them 'and who did you vote for in the last general election?'.

We talked ourselves into the property boom and the Celtic Tiger, which the government squandered, and now we've talked ourselves into a recession and have the most inept goverment we've seen in decades at the helm. Nice few years ahead.