STT Prop Bet

grey_abbey

Thought this could be a fun challenge so just putting it out there to see if there's any interest. Also it will put me over the top for Supernova on stars and can be my farewell to STT's as I make the move to cash.

Anyway, conditions of the bet will be:

1. I will play 1,000 STT's within a period of 4 days

2. All STT's played will be 9-man at either the $16 or $27 level on Pokerstars. Any other games played will be discounted.

3. I must show a positive ROI % for the period played. i.e. I must make a profit.

4. The bet does not end at 1,000 STT's but rather at the 4 day mark. (if I have a negative ROI after 1,000, I can continue to play on to try and bring it back to profit)

5. I am willing to bet up to €500 on this.

6. No minimum bet, money will be escrowed with agreed boards member.

7. All going well, the bet will start on Monday 8th December @ 5pm and will finish on Friday 12th December @ 5pm. (Note no weekend donks to take advantage of)

8. The line for this bet will be 3:1. Your €300 to my €100

9. Screenname is eds_empire, which when sharkscoped will show you that I am no superstar so I think the line is fair. Also, I have not played this sort of volume before but I think I can do it with the right motivation.

Thoughts?

tipp86

Turbo or non turbo?

grey_abbey

All Turbo

Ste05

How are you going to track your results and have them verified, also how are you going to ensure that the people betting against you know it's you and only you playing. Web-cam is the usual way with people phoning at irregular intervals etc. etc.

Just something to think about, hope it gets off the ground...

Goodluck2me

I'll take €300 - pending hearing full terms.
You have to play 1000 minimum, plas less you lose? this is a 96 hour period?
You must play between $16 and $27 on Pokerstars under the given name.

also how will we know it's you playing every game, and not a mate tag-teaming where say you do an hour on-off?

tipp86

Its possible to complete the volume if you put in sick hours. I personally wouldnt be putting on the bet with the odds he is giving.

grey_abbey

goodluck2me wrote: »

I'll take €300 - pending hearing full terms.
You have to play 1000 minimum, plas less you lose? this is a 96 hour period?
You must play between $16 and $27 on Pokerstars under the given name.

also how will we know it's you playing every game, and not a mate tag-teaming where say you do an hour on-off?

Minimum number of games is 1000 and the period of time is 96 hours.

Regarding the issue about how you'll know it is me, I will try and set up a web cam as I know that I am not well known on these boards. May need a little assistance on this from some1 with more computer knowledge.

BIGMICKG

1000 sngs in 4 days??? 9 mans?? WOW!! thats some sick grinding if u do it. how many tables do u play at once?

Van Dice

1000 STTs in 4 days...jesus...is it really worth €500 to have your brain cells shrivel up and hate you for ever?

Shivverz

wow, thats a sick amount of volume. Are you interested in being put on the boards.ie SS AVG ROI leaderboard?

shoutman

1k sngs in four weeks is bad enough but four days is just some sick form of sado masochism.

Flushdraw

I dont think you've thought this through grey_abbey.

Listen to BIGMICKG and Requiem4adream (if he replies), both of whom put in a huge volume of STTs and see what time frame you would be talking to complete this.

I dont think offering 1/3 odds will get much attention if you only require a positive ROI

KevIRL

BIGMICKG wrote: »

1000 sngs in 4 days??? 9 mans?? WOW!! thats some sick grinding if u do it. how many tables do u play at once?

hey Mick, you were saying in Killarney that there wasnt enough prop bets on boards, could this be the start of something?

GL with it OP, hope it gets off the ground at least

Ste05

Van Dice wrote: »

1000 STTs in 4 days...jesus...is it really worth €500 to have your brain cells shrivel up and hate you for ever?

Well if he books all his bets he'll make €1,500 out of it. Still not sure it's worth it, but a nice little cushion for a fella starting out in SSNL.

GL OP

Also lads, don't talk him out if it FFS, bet against him... we really need more Prop bets here

Requiem4adream

Flushdraw wrote: »

I dont think you've thought this through grey_abbey.

Listen to BIGMICKG and Requiem4adream (if he replies), both of whom put in a huge volume of STTs and see what time frame you would be talking to complete this.

I dont think offering 1/3 odds will get much attention if you only require a positive ROI

He can def do the volume if he 25-tables 12 hours a day and if he just has to get any positive ROI i dont think 3/1 is attractive. Plus if he can 25-table he'll find 30-tabling just as easy at those levels. Then again he would deserve the odds for wrecking his own head. Trust me. If the bet was at $50+ level he could name his price as he'd have no chance of doing it. $16/$27 doable. maybe 7/4 a better offering. Not many prop bets around here so good luck to him!

grey_abbey

I have actually put quite a bit of thought into this. My reasoning is that I think I can pull off an average of 16 turbo STT's an hour. Either 16 tabling sets or 10 tabling continuously.

I usually 8 table and have dabbled with 12-16 tabling (view recent 2k games breakeven stretch on sharkscope )
The question here is what effect will doing this continuously for 4 days at around 18 hrs/day will have on my game. I think the line is fair as it is much more unlikely that I will be succsessful here with no experience of this volume and I wont be doing the bet unless I get the full €1500:€500

I have the month of December off, starting a new job abroad in January so I'm thinkin worst case scenario, I lose €500 on the bet, another €600 or €700hundred in the games if God forbid I lose 50 buy-ins at the 16s,hit supernova and earn a ****load of VPP's and be done with these Godforsaken things forever...(and possibly go blind )

Regarding an earlier question, it should be fairly easy for sharkscope or pokerstars to verify my results and hopefully the webcam can be set up in time.

Now lets gogogo

BIGMICKG

strongly doubt ull do this on ur own. so if u set up the webcam etc. to prove ur the only 1 wholl be playing on the account count me in

BIGMICKG

3:1 is terrible odds 2. tell ye what ill put up 1500 u put up 700 and we have a deal. 2 conditions money is shipped to a boards account before the bet begins and webcam to prove ur the only 1 playing the account

BIGMICKG

KevIRL wrote: »

hey Mick, you were saying in Killarney that there wasnt enough prop bets on boards, could this be the start of something?

GL with it OP, hope it gets off the ground at least

ye prop bets are cool!! exactly what boards needs. have a couple in mind meself. wont be able to do them till next year unfortunately though cos im going for elite

NickyOD

Am I missing something? Basically you cannot lose this prop bet.

No 3. should read "I must show >8% ROI for the period played."

phantom_lord

Ste05 wrote: »

Also lads, don't talk him out if it FFS, bet against him... we really need more Prop bets here

i was thinking about one a while ago when i was taking to one of my friends, taking someone who knows practically nothing about poker (at most has played a fiver stt over beers) and in two weeks turning them into a winning 200nl player, say over a 10k sample. thoughts?

shoutman

can be done with constant sweating etc providing he/she is mildly intelligent and doesn't tilt, but 10k hands still leaves a lot to variance.

KevIRL

phantom_lord wrote: »

was thinking about one a while ago when i was taking to one of my friends, taking someone who knows practically nothing about poker (at most has played a fiver stt over beers) and in two weeks turning them into a winning 200nl player, say over a 10k sample. thoughts?

If you do this, change your username to Henry Higgins imo;)

Ste05

phantom_lord wrote: »

i was thinking about one a while ago when i was taking to one of my friends, taking someone who knows practically nothing about poker (at most has played a fiver stt over beers) and in two weeks turning them into a winning 200nl player, say over a 10k sample. thoughts?

It'd have to be a pretty intensive 2 weeks, and then the problem is ensuring this person plays the 10k hands or whatever himself without coaching/ sweating etc.

Could be really interesting though, could be very costly though, even just BR'ing the guy could be costly never mind if you lost the bet...

I can see lots of pit falls trying to get the bet off the ground, and also TBH I don't think it could be done, hence i suppose why it's such a good bet, the massive problem for you would be agreeing on the person to be trained.

Mellor

Odds are pretty bad in the OP.
I'd put up the cash, but not for that price. Looking at your sharkscope, you are a fairly decent winner over those limits at NLHE. Your average isn't huge, but the shots at bigger levels as well as PLO are to blame there.

Grafter

phantom_lord wrote: »

i was thinking about one a while ago when i was taking to one of my friends, taking someone who knows practically nothing about poker (at most has played a fiver stt over beers) and in two weeks turning them into a winning 200nl player, say over a 10k sample. thoughts?

Badbeat have done this with a crowd (30?) of east european graduates. Pretty sure it took longer than 2 weeks though.

Edit : found it and I was wrong about 2 weeks http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/news-poker-hedge-fund-back-internet-players-304297/

My detailed link from page 2 of the thread http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cd08df46-86ad-11dd-959e-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1

grey_abbey

After feedback, I'm prepared to make the following changes:

Condition 3 is now:

I must make $500 in the duration of the bet. (approx 3% ROI.)

Line is also moved to 2.5:1 I think its fair given that the most games I've ever played in a month is 1,050.

My final offer.

Ste05

BIGMICKG wrote: »

3:1 is terrible odds 2. tell ye what ill put up 1500 u put up 700 and we have a deal. 2 conditions money is shipped to a boards account before the bet begins and webcam to prove ur the only 1 playing the account

What was wrong with this offer grey_abbey

grey_abbey

Ste05 wrote: »

What was wrong with this offer grey_abbey

Mick has since declined a 2.5:1 offer I made to him based on old conditions. I'm not going below this line. Maybe he will reconsider with new condition of $500 profit.

Goodluck2me

I'm happy to escrow. Have no money online so won't take part.

TripleAce

grey_abbey wrote: »

After feedback, I'm prepared to make the following changes:

Condition 3 is now:

I must make $500 in the duration of the bet. (approx 3% ROI.)

Line is also moved to 2.5:1 I think its fair given that the most games I've ever played in a month is 1,050.

My final offer.

Good luck man. This may well destroy your health though IMO.

Van Dice

grey_abbey wrote: »

After feedback, I'm prepared to make the following changes:

Condition 3 is now:

I must make $500 in the duration of the bet. (approx 3% ROI.)

Line is also moved to 2.5:1 I think its fair given that the most games I've ever played in a month is 1,050.

My final offer.

if you set up a webcam i'll take whatever action you want. i know i should never bet against something someone claims they can do, but what the hell prop bets are fun.

Tight Ted

I highly doubt this is gonna happen, but if you take FTP transfers, and go through the bother of setting up a webcam displaying both you and the screen, I'll play for 200 bucks, whateva.

grey_abbey

Van Dice wrote: »

if you set up a webcam i'll take whatever action you want. i know i should never bet against something someone claims they can do, but what the hell prop bets are fun.

PM Sent

grey_abbey

Van Dice has locked up the action on this. His €1,250 to my €500. I hope to confirm dates, webcam and final terms over the weekend. (Major work piss-up tonight ) I'm leaving choice of escrow up to Van Dice, it will have to be on stars though.

Really hope I can make this competetive as I've always loved sweating these types of bets when other people do them.

Eddie

Ste05

I can act as escrow for you if you want.

HoLLLLLaments

note the highlighted section

just felt it was my duty to bring this into the light

VanDice says:
like QQ v 94o
danny says:
lol
danny says:
im gonna do a 19 team accumaltor
VanDice says:
only?
danny says:
lol
danny says:
i think i broke boylesports
danny says:
it wont work
VanDice says:
theyve closed my account
danny says:
lol
danny says:
why
VanDice says:
i was ahead a little bit, they seemed to think that shouldnt happen
danny says:
lol
VanDice says:
did u see the stt prop bet thread?
danny says:
a bit of it
danny says:
link me up
VanDice says:
so lazy...
VanDice says:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055428685
VanDice says:
the guy doesnt know im busto
VanDice says:
im so gonna scam him.......ste is in on it
danny says:
i see i see good luck with this

Van Dice

Ste05 wrote: »

I can act as escrow for you if you want.

thats fine. i dont have a stars a/c, but i can transfer on FTP if someone can swap that for Stars.

also gl2m/bigmick, since you were in before me let me know if you want any of the bet, don't want to steal action .

Van Dice

ffs cover blown

Ste05

LOL, you're a bad man Holllaments.

Just to confirm to the OP I don't personally know either Holla or Van Dice, and there's nothing untoward going on behind the scenes AFAIK.

If you're both happy to use me as the escrow, all I'll be doing is holding onto the money for you both until you agree at the end of the bet who you want me to send the money to.

Just incase you can't agree where the money is to go or who won the bet at the end, I'd ask you both to agree before the bet starts on a way to settle a dispute so I don't get caught up in the middle of a dispute. I don't really want to have to spend hours or days trying to verify a winner.

Has this been discussed in PM, if you want to keep it private that's fine you can PM me, but just so I know beforehand, and obviously to have ironed out terms.

Now gogogogogogogo....

grey_abbey

HoLLLLLaments wrote: »

note the highlighted section

just felt it was my duty to bring this into the light

VanDice says:
like QQ v 94o
danny says:
lol
danny says:
im gonna do a 19 team accumaltor
VanDice says:
only?
danny says:
lol
danny says:
i think i broke boylesports
danny says:
it wont work
VanDice says:
theyve closed my account
danny says:
lol
danny says:
why
VanDice says:
i was ahead a little bit, they seemed to think that shouldnt happen
danny says:
lol
VanDice says:
did u see the stt prop bet thread?
danny says:
a bit of it
danny says:
link me up
VanDice says:
so lazy...
VanDice says:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055428685
VanDice says:
the guy doesnt know im busto
VanDice says:
im so gonna scam him.......ste is in on it
danny says:
i see i see good luck with this

lol

Ste05 wrote: »

LOL, you're a bad man Holllaments.

Just to confirm to the OP I don't personally know either Holla or Van Dice, and there's nothing untoward going on behind the scenes AFAIK.

If you're both happy to use me as the escrow, all I'll be doing is holding onto the money for you both until you agree at the end of the bet who you want me to send the money to.

Just incase you can't agree where the money is to go or who won the bet at the end, I'd ask you both to agree before the bet starts on a way to settle a dispute so I don't get caught up in the middle of a dispute. I don't really want to have to spend hours or days trying to verify a winner.

Has this been discussed in PM, if you want to keep it private that's fine you can PM me, but just so I know beforehand, and obviously to have ironed out terms.

Now gogogogogogogo....

When everything gets sorted out, I'm happy for you to escrow.

Wont be about for the rest of the day. If any1 knows anything about webcams/places to host the webcast, feel free to post in the thread. Maybe it can be set up on a private network where only a few Boards members can watch. Dont want my mug bein broadcast all over the country/world...

I also had a thought about maybe doing the bet in the Fitz upstairs on my laptop so that web cam wouldn't be necessary and there would be back-up internet connection there. Is that 24 Hr? Would they mind?
Pokerstars could also verify that only my IP address is used for the account during the bet. There's probably cons to this I haven't thought of.

Anyway, I'l check back tomorrow...

hotspur

Any webcam and justintv.com.

TripleAce

Just wondering if/when this is going to kick off?

Slash/ED

phantom_lord wrote: »

i was thinking about one a while ago when i was taking to one of my friends, taking someone who knows practically nothing about poker (at most has played a fiver stt over beers) and in two weeks turning them into a winning 200nl player, say over a 10k sample. thoughts?

That sounds like the plot to trading places. You just need to take a good, winning 200nl player, take away his bankroll and give it to the other dude, and see if he reduces himself to a life of playing freerolls

grey_abbey

Hey all, sorry about lack of progress on this. Date for this to happen is Monday 15th to Friday 19th.

Web cam will be set up by then.

I've e-mailed Pokerstars and they have confirmed that they will act as official scorekeeper on this and they will have the final say on total games/winnings in the alotted time.

Funds will be escrowed with Ste.

To go over the details again:

1. I must play 1000 STT's within the alotted time (96hrs)
2. I must make at least $500 within this time.
3. All games counted will be 9 man on Pokerstars at $16 or $27 (turbo or non-turbo)
4. Odds are 2.5:1 ...Van Dices 1250 to my 500

Are these terms ok with you Van Dice?
Anything I'm missing?

Ste05

Cool, do you know if Pokerstars be willing to e-mail me directly (or cc me on the e-mail to you) to confirm the number of STT's you played in the period and whether you won over $500??

grey_abbey

Ste05 wrote: »

Cool, do you know if Pokerstars be willing to e-mail me directly (or cc me on the e-mail to you) to confirm the number of STT's you played in the period and whether you won over $500??

Yeah I'm sure that wont be a problem. I just have to give them the start and finish times and they will e-mail back a summary with totals. Sharkscope can be used during the bet to keep track of progress but I think Pokerstars e-mail should be final.

Ste05

Cool, just to let you know, from reading VD's Well, I think he's away until Monday or Tuesday, so might be difficult to get confirmation from him before then.

Grafter

I thought Sharkscope had been added to Stars naughty list?

grey_abbey

Grafter wrote: »

I thought Sharkscope had been added to Stars naughty list?

Yeah, they say you cant have it open while the pokerstars application is running. Wouldn't say they're too strict on it though.

Battle of the Planets leaderboard should keep me up to date on totals while in play anyway.

Van Dice

yeah sounds good. gl

grey_abbey wrote: »

Hey all, sorry about lack of progress on this. Date for this to happen is Monday 15th to Friday 19th.

Web cam will be set up by then.

I've e-mailed Pokerstars and they have confirmed that they will act as official scorekeeper on this and they will have the final say on total games/winnings in the alotted time.

Funds will be escrowed with Ste.

To go over the details again:

1. I must play 1000 STT's within the alotted time (96hrs)
2. I must make at least $500 within this time.
3. All games counted will be 9 man on Pokerstars at $16 or $27 (turbo or non-turbo)
4. Odds are 2.5:1 ...Van Dices 1250 to my 500

Are these terms ok with you Van Dice?
Anything I'm missing?