Why not invest????????

shanno80006

Been reading throught this section and most of the advice is not to buy shares in Irish banks.Bank of Irelands shares have dropped from over €18 two years ago to just over €1 on Friday.Why would one not want to buy these shares to keep over the long term?Is it not logicial that these prices will go up?Also the Government are hardly likely to let one of their major financial instituations go down the drain.Or am i just a bloody fool(No wise cracks:D)

pvt.joker

shanno80006 wrote: »

Is it not logicial that these prices will go up?

No, it is not.

shanno80006

I know they won't go up in the short term but what about in five years?

Time Magazine

We're at the start of a construction bubble meltdown and we can face a world recession that will last maybe five years. There's a reason the price is so low.

Raskolnikov

shanno80006 wrote: »

Also the Government are hardly likely to let one of their major financial instituations go down the drain.Or am i just a bloody fool(No wise cracks:D)

You are right, the government won't let Bank of Ireland go down the toilet. However, they're simply not going to give the bank money for nothing. The bank may end up being completely nationalised (you lose everything) like Northern Rock in the UK.

amcalester

Buying stocks and shares is a risk, there is no guarantee that the share price will rise but as Alan Greenspan or Warren Buffet said (and I paraphrase) "be agressive while others are running scared and be scared while others are being aggressive"

If you have cash you can afford to loose then shares could be a good investment, as long as you're willing to loose your initial investment however if its the kids college fund or savings for a house then you'd be better off looking at some sort of low risk guaranteed return savings plan.

Bust remember that buying shares is a gamble. You're gambling your initial investment that the share price will rise.

pocketdooz

amcalester wrote: »

If you have cash you can afford to loose then shares could be a good investment,

amcalester wrote: »

Bust remember that buying shares is a gamble. You're gambling your initial investment that the share price will rise.

LOL

Gamble it up mate

To the OP - Yes, it is true that BOI shares must rise again - sure, weren't they once €18 - now they're €1 - maybe nobody else has noticed this ! You're on to a winner there mate . . . buy as much as you can because you know that what goes down must go back up. Just 'cos they anticipate making NO profit next year (and probably a substantial loss if bad debts >1.8%, are burdened by ever expanding bad debts, may have no sources of liquidity, halved their dividend and then cancelled it doesn't mean they're a bad investment.

There's a guy on here called BoomBoomBazza - he wanted to borrow €20,000 to buy the shares at €5/€6 a pop. Luckily he came to his senses and didn't bother. Now, BOI are approaching penny stock status and when this happens you can say goodnight to any equity value in the company.

fearandloathing

in terms of irish banks the full extent of the damage has yet to be seen. the amount of bad debt they will have to absorb will increase as the property market grinds to a halt and there is no guarentee that the government will bail out any irish bank that is about to go under. if you want to gamble you'd be better off get down to your local casino, even as a long term investment it is impossible to quantify the level of risk invoved due to the sheer volitility of the market.. anyway, id say keep your money and dont be fooled by what seems on the surface to be good value. best of luck anyway..

kincsem

Shane Ross thinks we are being drip fed the truth at Bank Of Ireland.

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/shane-ross/ice-cold-on-planet-denial-1541386.html

TheBigLebowski

Would anybody recommend holding on to shares currently held in BOI?

Idu

TheBigLebowski wrote: »

Would anybody recommend holding on to shares currently held in BOI?

It would depend on what price I had them at. Anything above 3.50 then I dont think you have the risk/reward to hold them. Its amazing that people have let their assets depreciate so much. There's no shame in taking a loser from a stock instead people hold and hold assuming the value will rise again without understanding the fundamentals of what drives price action in stocks.

A while ago I seem to remember Pocketdooz suggested using stop losses for this very reason and he was met with derision from a few people. The amount of people who would have saved themselves a fortune it they had even a simple trading plan is unbelievable

meanmachine3

just to show how bad things are in BOI their shares went down to .90 at 11.00am ish

Diarmuid

The Economist wrote: »

We're at the start of a construction bubble meltdown and we can face a world recession that will last maybe five years.

Five years? You need to get some perspective. The Great Depression didn't even last that long. The average US recession length since 1948 has been 11 months.

Diarmuid

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

A while ago I seem to remember Pocketdooz suggested using stop losses for this very reason and he was met with derision from a few people.

If you have stop losses you wouldn't be holding any stock at this stage. Pretty much everything has fallen over 10% in the past few months.

Idu

Diarmuid wrote: »

If you have stop losses you wouldn't be holding any stock at this stage. Pretty much everything has fallen over 10% in the past few months.

Exactly - why would you want to have been holding any stock through this. Get out and get back in again if you still think it's a good long term investment. Anyone still holding AIB/BOI and hundreds more shares now from this time last year even is no doubt wishing they had some of that capital instead of it being tied up in a junk stock

pocketdooz

Diarmuid wrote: »

If you have stop losses you wouldn't be holding any stock at this stage. Pretty much everything has fallen over 10% in the past few months.

We'll avoid getting into the same discussion about stop-losses here but there's nothing wrong with selling losing stocks (even if it is all your portfolio) and putting your cash into bonds / cash etc. At a time like this it's the whole market that is being weighed down - some good companies are being dragged down with the dirt.

In my opinion, you're best bet right now is cash or dividend yielding defensive stocks, like cigarette makers/ pharma co's, infrastructure co's in the US, life insurance co's in the US, generic drug manufacturers/retailers and discount wholesalers (and maybe fast food guys) - but I wouldn't look at any names that are over 4x levered and you need to look at companies that are cash-generative and have regional diversity.

If you're not willing to do your own research - you're best bet is Anglo's 8% account or maybe Investec or Rabo's 6.5% savings accounts if you have more than a few grand.

PS - I'm out of pretty much all my positions now becasue of stop losses (TINY, MAR, Baidu, FMC etc.) - long term I still believe in these companies but once they dropped 10% I got out. I will get back in again when volatility subsides and some type of normality returns to the market

PPS - EBAY are now trading at 4.0x EBITDA - a historic low - if you have the time look at their numbers, debt and ratings - pretty impressive IMO





.

Time Magazine

Diarmuid wrote: »

Five years? You need to get some perspective. The Great Depression didn't even last that long. The average US recession length since 1948 has been 11 months.

1. I said "maybe" five years.
2. I don't think anyone is claiming this is an average recession.
3. The world was not as globalised in 1930. This spreads financial contagion further, so you'd expect it to last a little longer than average.

Raskolnikov

If you still think Bank of Ireland are a canny play, consider this. One of the big hedge funds still has a short position on Bank of Ireland.

http://www.ise.ie/app/announcementDetails.asp?ID=2022248

They started shorting Bank of Ireland at €8-€9. At any point, they could have cashed out for a huge profit.

No, the hedge funds want to break Bank of Ireland.

meanmachine3

time now is 18.43. according to sharewatch.com BOI are now trading at .83 per share. how low can these things go

Baird

The Economist wrote: »

1. I said "maybe" five years.
2. I don't think anyone is claiming this is an average recession.
3. The world was not as globalised in 1930. This spreads financial contagion further, so you'd expect it to last a little longer than average.

Exactly, it wont last a little longer, it will last a LOT longer.
The widespread destruction of wealth seen in the past 12 months is a multiple
of what was seen in the great depression.
We are not only seeing the destruction of globilisation and the destabilisation
of the banking system, we are also seeing the biggest deleveraging the world
has every and probably will ever see.
Protectionism will be the new order of the day and globalisation will be stopped
dead in its tracks in the next few months when Obama and Sarkosy get their socialist mandates approved.
As bad as Bush was at least he promoted free trade, Obama and his socialist
policies will be a disaster for world trade and especially to an open economy
like Ireland but its ok because he is "black" and he speaks really well :rolleyes:

Anyway thats more than off topic. This recession will last a lot longer than
11 months and just because its over doesnt mean the share price in BOI
or any share will suddenly rocket back to the previously seen levels.
Banks will never again be allowed to lend at the same rates they have in the
past and they will also not be allowed to be so leveraged. UBS was at 64x
leverage at the end of last year for crying out loud. To put that in perspective
a 16% fall in the value of UBS underlying assets would wipe out the GDP of
Switzerland for an entire year.
Supernormal profits for banks will be a thing of the past and thats why my
advice to anyone is the risk/reward for banks is just not worth it at the moment, at least until we see what the new banking models will be.

meanmachine3 wrote: »

time now is 18.43. according to sharewatch.com BOI are now trading at .83 per share. how low can these things go

They can go to 0.
Simple as that, have a look at waterford/wedgewoods share price for example.

Diarmuid

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

Exactly - why would you want to have been holding any stock through this. Get out and get back in again if you still think it's a good long term investment. Anyone still holding AIB/BOI and hundreds more shares now from this time last year even is no doubt wishing they had some of that capital instead of it being tied up in a junk stock

I don't feel confident trying to time the markets. You might have other ideas. If the S&P500 index fund was a good investment 1 year ago it's a better investment now. I'm not going back over this whole discussion though.

Exactly, it wont last a little longer, it will last a LOT longer

I'm bookmarking this one.

Time Magazine

Baird wrote: »

We are not only seeing the destruction of globilisation

We are not seeing the destruction of globalisation. This latest bout of globalisation is not the first, nor has a decline in international trade never "recovered" before.

Baird

Diarmuid wrote: »

I'm bookmarking this one.

The US has more or less been in recession since Q2 and only for the tax rebate the figures for Q2 and Q3 would have been a lot worse.
Average recession length is under a year, we are nearly at 9 months and consumer confidence is collapsing rather than recovering.
Are you honestly telling me that everything is gonna magically improve in the next 3-6 months?
I for one definitely cannot see it.

Baird

The Economist wrote: »

We are not seeing the destruction of globalisation. This latest bout of globalisation is not the first, nor has a decline in international trade never "recovered" before.

The fallout from the housing crisis that's cost jobs and wiped out savings was... the culmination of decades of decisions that were made or put off without regard to the realities of a global economy and the growing inequality it's produced...

[D]ecades of trade deals like NAFTA and China have been signed with plenty of protections for corporations and their profits, but none for our environment or our workers who've seen factories shut their doors and millions of jobs disappear...

I also won't stand here and accept an America where we do nothing to help American workers who have lost jobs and opportunities because of these trade agreements...

I will not sign another trade agreement unless it has protections for... American workers."

Those are quotes from Obama in his election build up.
If the ruler of the worlds biggest economy has this attitude towards trade
and protectionism how on earth is it not the beginning of a huge pull back
in the efforts towards a more globalised world?

Diarmuid

Baird wrote: »

Are you honestly telling me that everything is gonna magically improve in the next 3-6 months?
I for one definitely cannot see it.

No. But I never claimed that it would. What I am saying is a 5 year recession is WAY over the top. 24 months would be more realistic IMHO.

Baird wrote: »

Those are quotes from Obama in his election build up.
If the ruler of the worlds biggest economy has this attitude towards trade
and protectionism how on earth is it not the beginning of a huge pull back
in the efforts towards a more globalised world?

Claims made on the election path and actions followed through are very different things.
(Remember "Read My lips")

Baird

Diarmuid wrote: »

No. But I never claimed that it would. What I am saying is a 5 year recession is WAY over the top. 24 months would be more realistic IMHO.

Think we are both arguing the same thing here.
When i said way longer i was responding to the claim of an average recession being 11 months, i didnt mean way longer than 5 years.
Like you i would tend to see the economic recession being for 18-24 in the US.
I would start that from Q1 this year when the US was technically in recession
expect for distorted numbers as a result of the tax rebate and other measures.
Cant see any improvement until Q3 next year in the US

Claims made on the election path and actions followed through are very different things.
(Remember "Read My lips")

Ah mate come on you cant be serious.
You can easily apply that to anything i want!
If he said he is a socialist, talks like a socialist and promotes socialist policies
then in my book the man is a socialist
Dont know how much evidence someone needs after that tbh

Barr

Whats the cheapest way to buy bank shares - are they available online ?

Diarmuid

Baird wrote: »

Ah mate come on you cant be serious.
You can easily apply that to anything i want!
If he said he is a socialist, talks like a socialist and promotes socialist policies
then in my book the man is a socialist
Dont know how much evidence someone needs after that tbh

I am. Just look at any election and you will see pandering just to get elected by all politicians. The Economist endorsed Obama before the election, they hardly did that thinking that America would head down a protectionist and socialist path? Look at Obama's economic advisor's, Paul Volcker, Robert Rubin and Austan Goolsbee. Those guys are hardly socialists?
Sure he is going to implement some more social policies than Bush but in fairness the Bush administration was more to the right than Darth Vader.

Diarmuid

The S&P500 surged after rumours of Obama's treasury secretary pick. Talk about the market grasping at straws.

Glacier

I would have €38,000 next September. If things slightly improve 7 the bank thing seems to be working, would you invest €25k in AIB or Bank of Ireland over 5 years? If it's even half the level it was 2 years ago in 5 years, you would at least double your money, right?

Diarmuid

Glacier wrote: »

I would have €38,000 next September. If things slightly improve 7 the bank thing seems to be working, would you invest €25k in AIB or Bank of Ireland over 5 years? If it's even half the level it was 2 years ago in 5 years, you would at least double your money, right?

christ almighty, you've asked this questions so many times I'm going to say now YES GO AHEAD AND INVEST IT ALL IN BOI.:rolleyes: just to stop the same question again and again. It's bad enough when it's 10 different people asking the same question but when it's the same person asking the same question 10 times it gets a bit old.

pocketdooz

Diarmuid wrote: »

christ almighty, you've asked this questions so many times I'm going to say now YES GO AHEAD AND INVEST IT ALL IN BOI.:rolleyes: just to stop the same question again and again. It's bad enough when it's 10 different people asking the same question but when it's the same person asking the same question 10 times it gets a bit old.

+1

I agree - ffs please stop asking the same question. You are doing everyone's head in.

Just buy or sell or do something - how many answers do you want !!

Glacier

It's the first time I've asked about the banking crises. And being serious, do you think it's a good idea?

pocketdooz

Glacier wrote: »

It's the first time I've asked about the banking crises. And being serious, do you think it's a good idea?

Now I just think you are a level. You've asked the same thing about 15 times on here.

Glacier

Well, then if anyone can prove it show it to me?

ranger4

Glacier wrote: »

Well, then if anyone can prove it show it to me?

If the gov addopt the latest plan where some irish banks aib poss boi asset managers are allong with gov to re-cap the likes of aib-boi this outcome would possibly be the best outcome out of all the proposels put forward SO FAR for the exsisiting bank employees and shareholders, I doint believe the gov will run with the VC plan and think a co-injection with banks asset managers funds and pension funds in some format will be what the gov will choose, also the european investment bank has made a statement this morning saying that they have held talks with irish gov with a possible plan to help shortfall on credit vacilities to small and medium buisness in january and are willing to lend significant funds to help buisness etc, If thease plans allong with others are adopted this should have a very possitive effect with freeing up credit and helping to take some of the load off the banks.

Glacier

So, you think it's an idea?

ranger4

Glacier wrote: »

So, you think it's an idea?

I have asked many questions from members here and recieved some exellent info but its you who will have to research for info allong with gaining info on sites like this one before YOU decide to buy or not.

Time Magazine

Glacier, please stop asking questions over and over again that have been answered about six thousand times in the past month.

The Economist

The Economist wrote: »

Glacier, please stop asking questions over and over again that have been answered about six thousand times in the past month.

+1

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

DouglasWinthrow

Im sorry , but ive been watching this for a while , and cannot let this thread go on without at least saying something.


All of you in here who have some background in economics , or consider youselves educated/ successful seem just as clueless and inaccurate as anyone else who you cut down and degrade with your oh so witty self important comments (not so much in this thread , but certainly in the original buy BOI shares)

Many of you have become slightly less condescending , which is nice to see , but still spout all these rubbish opinions , most of which i can read in the paper or any online publication relating to economics.

The reason i say this , is becuase maybe everyone should realize they dont know anything.

All of this seems like a gamble at even the best of times, otherwise , why would stock brokers ever loose money?

Surely , with the amazing ability all of you seem to think you have (which you all think seems to give you the right to talk to others not so into the stock culture as though they were morons) you should be making money left right and centre.

I guess the real point im trying to make here is


Get over yourselves. All of you. You know nothing more than anyone else, stop acting like you do.

pocketdooz

DouglasWinthrow wrote: »

Im sorry , but ive been watching this for a while , and cannot let this thread go on without at least saying something.


All of you in here who have some background in economics , or consider youselves educated/ successful seem just as clueless and inaccurate as anyone else who you cut down and degrade with your oh so witty self important comments (not so much in this thread , but certainly in the original buy BOI shares)

Many of you have become slightly less condescending , which is nice to see , but still spout all these rubbish opinions , most of which i can read in the paper or any online publication relating to economics.

The reason i say this , is becuase maybe everyone should realize they dont know anything.

All of this seems like a gamble at even the best of times, otherwise , why would stock brokers ever loose money?

Surely , with the amazing ability all of you seem to think you have (which you all think seems to give you the right to talk to others not so into the stock culture as though they were morons) you should be making money left right and centre.

I guess the real point im trying to make here is


Get over yourselves. All of you. You know nothing more than anyone else, stop acting like you do.

Yes Sir, is there anything else you would like us all here to do ?

This is a free, open, discussion board where people can say and ask what they like. If people post their opinions they should be prepared to get shot down (I, for one, have had it happen to me many times - on the other hand, people have thanked me too so there's obviously a balance)

If you are looking for professional advice that you can't " read in the paper or any online publication relating to economics " , maybe you should pay and sign up to 'BondHub', 'Bloomberg' or 'Thomson Analytics' and get some 'real' advice.

Anyway - thanks for the very well thought out, informative post.

It's posts like yours above, that make boards.ie such a wonderful free source of knowledge for people.









.

DouglasWinthrow

pocketdooz wrote: »

This is a free, open, discussion board where people can say and ask what they like. If people post their opinions they should be prepared to get shot down

so shooting people down is ok?


which would make you wonder how you can say

pocketdooz wrote: »

It's posts like yours above, that make boards.ie such a wonderful free source of knowledge for people.

.

implying that my kind of posts ruin a thread ,

when in reality , its shooting down of people who enter a community looking for discussion and advice that ruin a thread



it really isnt a source of anything excpet wannabes thinking they understand how markets work,


and yes , youre absoloutely right , theres no way in hell id take anyones stock advice from here ,

and if i wanted to rely on someone elses opinions i would most certainly go to the experts you mentioned above

lots of love

douglas

xox

pocketdooz

DouglasWinthrow wrote: »

so shooting people down is ok?


which would make you wonder how you can say



implying that my kind of posts ruin a thread ,

when in reality , its shooting down of people who enter a community looking for discussion and advice that ruin a thread



it really isnt a source of anything excpet wannabes thinking they understand how markets work,


and yes , youre absoloutely right , theres no way in hell id take anyones stock advice from here ,

and if i wanted to rely on someone elses opinions i would most certainly go to the experts you mentioned above

lots of love

douglas

xox

Thanks Douglas - see you around

DouglasWinthrow wrote: »

and yes , youre absoloutely right , theres no way in hell id take anyones stock advice from here

but wait ......

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055358555

Looks like you might need the links to those sources so







.

Idu

LMFAO. Classic stuff

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Time Magazine

DouglasWinthrow wrote: »

Im sorry , but ive been watching this for a while , and cannot let this thread go on without at least saying something.

Joy to the world.

All of you in here who have some background in economics , or consider youselves educated/ successful seem just as clueless and inaccurate as anyone else

Those of us with backgrounds in economics are as clueless as anyone else? What about the gent who was persuaded against borrowing €20,000 to buy Bank of Ireland shares at €6 by those of us with backgrounds in economics?

who you cut down and degrade with your oh so witty self important comments (not so much in this thread , but certainly in the original buy BOI shares)

Many of you have become slightly less condescending , which is nice to see , but still spout all these rubbish opinions , most of which i can read in the paper or any online publication relating to economics.

You're welcome to go read any other online publication, then. This is a message board.

The reason i say this , is becuase maybe everyone should realize they dont know anything.

I think you're entirely mis-interpreting the likes of pocketdooz/janet on clubs here. You are entirely wrong to say none of us know anything. Lots of us know quite a bit. What nobody can know for sure is what's going to happen in the future. Now that's not to say the future cannot be forecasted to a degree. I'd fancy my chances putting €20 on Man Utd to beat Sunderland next weekend. I'd be less confident if Ronaldo, Rooney and Berbatov were all injured. Sure, they might still win, but it's less certain. Analogies can be drawn to Bank of Ireland this past month.

All of this seems like a gamble at even the best of times, otherwise , why would stock brokers ever loose money?

You're oblivious to the realities of risk and uncertainty here. There's a very big difference between betting on Man United winning and on Sunderland winning. A bit of knowledge goes a long way. There's risk involved, but it's not plucking things from the air.

And investing is a much more detailed venture than gambling.

Surely , with the amazing ability all of you seem to think you have (which you all think seems to give you the right to talk to others not so into the stock culture as though they were morons) you should be making money left right and centre.

Stop assuming we're not.

Get over yourselves. All of you. You know nothing more than anyone else, stop acting like you do.

I could say the same thing to you. Don't tell anyone to get over themselves. Read the rules of this forum.

so shooting people down is ok?

Absolutely. We're all big boys and people have saved thousands of euro on this forum because they were lambasted. Now I completely agree it's possible -- even desirable -- to attack the post politely, but we're all big boys. I'm not going to ban someone for being blunt.

when in reality , its shooting down of people who enter a community looking for discussion and advice that ruin a thread

If you're going to stick around, I suggest you read the rules regarding advice. There certainly seems to be quite a healthy level of discussion on this forum existing simultaneously with people being blunt.

Maybe we're not the ones who don't know what they're talking about.

Time Magazine

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Post not the poster, thanks.