Bin Laden Factor

Black Swan

Will Bin Laden release a video one week before the 2008 presidential 4 November vote, as he did in 2004? Or a Bin Laden imposter (actor)* that favours a McCain win similar to the Bush win 4 years ago against Kerry?

"My money is on Osama bin Laden popping back up with a hate video, just as he did the weekend before the 2004 election. That tape reminded the public that the country was still at risk from this sickening terrorist and that President Bush had kept us safe for the three years since the September 11, 2001 attacks. In that close campaign, it was this video—not the Swift Boat tactics that got all the ink—that made the difference. John Kerry, who led in several polls that weekend, saw his margin melt away."

Source: http://www.newsweek.com/id/164981

*Karl Rove? Is this your October Surprise?

2Scoops

Bin Laden is dead. He hasn't been seen, heard or photographed in several years. Last I heard, he had intractable kidney disease and was bombed by the US forces, though his body was not recovered. Every tape released since then has been old footage or faked (e.g. the Gordon Brown comments).

It suits the Republicans to have people still believe he's 'out there', plotting things. Similarly, it suits the terrorists to have a legendary figure the US can't catch. But if bin Laden really wanted to prove he's alive, all he would need is to take a picture of himself with today's NY Times. :pac: The fact that he hasn't speaks volumes.

If anything did come out, I would sooner suspect Machiavellian elements within the GOP to be responsible than bin Laden himself. Indeed, it would spectacularly bad timing for him to come out with it now since, if the McCain campaign is to be believed, the terrorists want Barack Obama as president. :rolleyes:

Manic Moran

Doesn't matter if Bin Laden's alive or not. The concept of someone out there who's the enemy is still quite a valid concern.

I wouldn't be surprised if foreign affairs regains some of its import. The stock market is still undergoind wild swings in both directions, but they're progessively getting smaller. The credit market is improving, the LIBOR dropped from over 6% two weeks ago to 1.5% now. Still not great, but definitely on the upscale. Oil prices have plummeted, and people are paying a lot less on petrol today than they were even three months ago. Some Bay Area regions saw housing sales shoot up 40-50% last month. (The cheaper areas, those foreclosures are proving great opportunities for people who want to buy. Places like Berkeley haven't changed much). In a nutshell, the economy isn't as pressing an issue on people's minds as it was two weeks ago and they might be open to considering other factors again.

NTM

Overheal

I'm vaguely aware of a situation where DVDs showing islamic terrorists threatening america were redistributed as part of a newspaper. The DVD being distributed by newspapers in some of the swing states is entitled Obsession, which was produced by (suprised?) Fox News in 2006.

The DVD Distribution is Huge and Paid for by a Third party; over 70 papers will be participating by election day. Millions of copies have already been issued.


http://www.theamericanmuslim.org/tam.php/features/articles/obsession_has_your_newspaper_put_a_hate_dvd_on_your_front_porch/0016789

http://www.pacificcitizen.org/content/2008/national/oct17-pcstaff-apa-dvd-islam-1119.htm

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h1Rd6z2Qk3Fe45zgkt9gKSEiE46gD93JLBOO0

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/business/la-na-muslimvideo28-2008sep28,0,7890909.story

I'd summarize more, but I'm sleepy. Consider these articles Must-Reads though.

Black Swan

Manic Moran wrote: »

Doesn't matter if Bin Laden's alive or not. The concept of someone out there who's the enemy is still quite a valid concern.

Get real! Look at the timing of these releases about terrorism, now only 2 weeks before the 2008 general election in the swing states. See Overheal's links, especially the one by the LA Times. They are trying to scare the voters in these key states to vote military (McCain).

If these special interests were really concerned about saving American lives, they would not try to scare voters just before an election about a terrorist behind every Bush, but rather direct their attention to the real threat that is killing Americans everyday (by the thousands every year), and that's vehicle accidents on the US roads and highways (many alcohol abuse related). But this does not make for sensationalist copy in the press, nor scare them to vote military (McCain) just before a general election.

These scare tactics just before an election fly in the face of the so-called democratic process in the USA, and exemplify what a farce this election is.

Trojan

If I was on the Democratic campaign, I would definitely have things ready to fake a Bin Laden endorsement of McCain/Palin, well scripted and ready to go. If a Republican fake comes out, have the other online 15 minutes later.

Black Swan

Trojan wrote: »

If I was on the Democratic campaign, I would definitely have things ready to fake a Bin Laden endorsement of McCain/Palin, well scripted and ready to go. If a Republican fake comes out, have the other online 15 minutes later.

What about vaccinating the population against these typical scare tactics by educating them? Release a vid NOW, showing how voters have been duped in the past, including the false intelligence on weapons of mass destruction reports used to dupe Congress and the population into waging the second Iraq War?

Trojan

Actually, after thinking about it for more than 0.01 seconds, that's probably a far better option than mine. But I'd concentrate on how easy it is for someone to fake a video endorsement.

Maybe show the moon landing.

Overheal

He would need a JFK repeat. "The only thing we have to fear, is Fear itself."

The point is, its true. Kennedy was right on the ball to hit scare tactics in the face. All you need to do is highlight how we have been Fear Mongered by ourselves in the last 8 years, and for me that entire argument begins with <<Terror Alert: ELEVATED>>.

CPT. SURF

That Bin Laden comes in awfully handy doesn't he? I wish I had use of his services. Like when I am late for work he could answer my phone and scare the shyte out of my boss

brianthebard

Overheal wrote: »

He would need a JFK repeat. "The only thing we have to fear, is Fear itself."

The point is, its true. Kennedy was right on the ball to hit scare tactics in the face. All you need to do is highlight how we have been Fear Mongered by ourselves in the last 8 years, and for me that entire argument begins with <<Terror Alert: ELEVATED>>.

FDR surely?

Overheal

....oh yeah.

Manic Moran

Blue_Lagoon wrote: »

If these special interests were really concerned about saving American lives, they would not try to scare voters just before an election about a terrorist behind every Bush, but rather direct their attention to the real threat that is killing Americans everyday (by the thousands every year), and that's vehicle accidents on the US roads and highways (many alcohol abuse related). But this does not make for sensationalist copy in the press, nor scare them to vote military (McCain) just before a general election.

The thought has occurred to people. For example, on a per capita basis, there are some US cities which are more dangerous than Iraq is for Americans. (Actually, I seem to recall calculating a while ago that at the extreme level, Detroit is more dangerous for Americans than Iraq is for Iraqis) Yet there is a lot of focus on trying to prevent American troop death in Iraq, but very little to do about the murder rates in cities. Probably because the one is easy, the other difficult. Politics has long been about doing something easy which looks good, to hell with doing somethign which is actually useful.

NTM

CPT. SURF

Manic Moran wrote: »

The thought has occurred to people. For example, on a per capita basis, there are some US cities which are more dangerous than Iraq is for Americans. (Actually, I seem to recall calculating a while ago that at the extreme level, Detroit is more dangerous for Americans than Iraq is for Iraqis) Yet there is a lot of focus on trying to prevent American troop death in Iraq, but very little to do about the murder rates in cities. Probably because the one is easy, the other difficult. Politics has long been about doing something easy which looks good, to hell with doing somethign which is actually useful.

NTM

But why on earth would we want to spend money on social programs for inner cities? That is socialism remember? Drug rehabilitation classes, soup kitchens, community organization, better funded schools with teachers earning a higher wage,---these kinds of things are a waste of our money. Better of to spend it on weapons. USA USA USA

Trojan

Manic Moran wrote: »

Politics has long been about doing something easy which looks good, to hell with doing somethign which is actually useful.

Airport security.

Denis Irwin

Strange that this topic should be brought up. There's an article on this on the BBC News website from a journalist with Newsweek saying that if Obama is prepared for an appearence of Bin Laden on tape, he(Obama) could very easily work it into his advantage by saying that it's been seven years since 9/11 and the Republicans have yet to get him one way or the other.

Link to the article in question:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7684782.stm

Manic Moran

Trojan wrote: »

Airport security.

I'm actually in a pretty good position to address that one, at least as far as the US is concerned. I'm happy to say that the US has started to implement a program which is going to be far more effective at airport security than the methods we've known and loved (And were pretty useless) for the last six years. That said, there are some utter idiots out there which even the basic checkpoint can find: In the last week 22 firearms and three artfully concealed prohibited items were confiscated at checkpoints.

Anyone gone through security at BWI recently?

NTM