They didn't see it coming....

silverharp

A little adage of mine is that if they didnt see it coming don't expect them to solve the problem. So how will the Irish Gov. deal with this credit crises as they obviously didnt plan for it (thankfully I did)

Assuming taxes arent raised which would cause more problems and we dont go back to 1970's borrowing (that worked out well) where will the cuts fall,capital spending?? day to day?? a hatchet job on the civil service and semis?? I'm not optimistic to be honest as I have seen nothing but pro cylical short termism by the establisment here.

sovtek

silverharp wrote: »

A little adage of mine is that if they didnt see it coming don't expect them to solve the problem. So how will the Irish Gov. deal with this credit crises as they obviously didnt plan for it (thankfully I did)

Assuming taxes arent raised which would cause more problems and we dont go back to 1970's borrowing (that worked out well) where will the cuts fall,capital spending?? day to day?? a hatchet job on the civil service and semis?? I'm not optimistic to be honest as I have seen nothing but pro cylical short termism by the establisment here.

You can bet they will put any "belt tightening" on us the great unwashed. It's the genius of Brian Cowen on display here.

Caoimhín

If they try to cut the dead wood out of public/civil service the rest of them will strike.

Remember the army operating a bus service (of sorts)? Thats what we are heading for. They cant go for stealth taxed, its too serious for that, the deficit too large.

My bet is on income tax going up AND the bands shifting, Vat going up, duty on the old favourites going up and cuts in spending in the areas that will have least political blow back (the poor and the sick).

I myself would like to see a property tax on all residential property outside the principal residence.

sovtek

caoibhin wrote: »

I myself would like to see a property tax on all residential property outside the principal residence.

I thought there already was one.
I assumed that's why a few of my former landlords initially refused to give me their PPS #'s to claim my rent.
I suspect some of the "dead wood" that will be cut is staff working in the INIS that are processing tens of thousands of back logged Residency and Citizenship applications. We cant' vote anyway so screw us.

Caoimhín

sovtek wrote: »

I thought there already was one.
I assumed that's why a few of my former landlords initially refused to give me their PPS #'s to claim my rent.
I suspect some of the "dead wood" that will be cut is staff working in the INIS that are processing tens of thousands of back logged Residency and Citizenship applications. We cant' vote anyway so screw us.

I was thinking more along the line of rates, or a "poll tax" as it was known in the UK.

And yes, that is exactly where they will target cutbacks, except they are very unlikely to enforce redundancies in the public/civil service, and the people in these "jobs for life" are very unlikely to take any voluntary redundancy.

gandalf

caoibhin wrote: »

If they try to cut the dead wood out of public/civil service the rest of them will strike.

Remember the army operating a bus service (of sorts)? Thats what we are heading for. They cant go for stealth taxed, its too serious for that, the deficit too large.

Well tbh that is exactly what is needed. But you would need a government of morals and strong constitution to push reforms like that through. The current bunch have shown that they fall well short of that. My god how quickly did the greens lose their high ideals once their butts hit the government benches.

My bet is on income tax going up AND the bands shifting, Vat going up, duty on the old favourites going up and cuts in spending in the areas that will have least political blow back (the poor and the sick).

Unfortunately that is what is probably going to happen. Instead of using this as an opportunity to reform the civil service and semi-state areas they will hit the general PAYE taxpayer where it hurts again. There will probably be another hair brained scheme for the property sector to try and restart the now dead corpse of the market to help their developer buddies.

I myself would like to see a property tax on all residential property outside the principal residence.

I doubt they will do anything to upset the market.

Mr.Micro

How honest have the banks been with the Government with regards to how much liability they have on their books or what other parties the banks are involved with? Its like going to get a life insurance policy and not having a medical or telling the insurer all the facts, in real life we know that would never happen. What were the financial regulator and the central bank doing uo to now??? ASLEEP or turning a blnd eye. Now the Government is going to allow all these executives keep their jobs and carry on as usual and today we learn we will have to borrow 10 billion until next year. New and unchartered waters and the banks must be falling about laughing at the deal they got and the bonuses all underwritten by the taxpayer. What a great year for the banks.

I watched Primetime last night and the Financial Regulator was being interviewed and not once did he admit that the banks were wrong in their practices or that he or the central bank had failed in their duty to monitor the banks, its all about liquidity he harped on. No offers of resignation or sacking the executives of the banks. The same people who brought the country to virtual economic meltdown are in the jobs this morning and the very appointed Government watchdogs are still there oblivious to it all. No matter its just public money(monopoly money) that is at risk. Carry on Banking with the Monopoly guy as the regulator. I have absolutely no confidence in promises of better regulation when the very watchdogs cannot even see there is/was a problem. Only in Ireland.

djpbarry

Mr.Micro wrote: »

How honest have the banks been with the Government with regards to how much liability they have on their books or what other parties the banks are involved with? Its like going to get a life insurance policy and not having a medical or telling the insurer all the facts, in real life we know that would never happen.

No, the state of a particular institution's balance sheet will determine how much the guarantee will cost them:

Irish Times wrote:

TAOISEACH BRIAN Cowen said banks would "pay a substantial fee" if they chose to avail of the Government's deposit guarantee.
...
Addressing a forum of business leaders in Dublin last night, the Taoiseach said: "In the event that the insurance given is not called upon, the Government finances will benefit from the levy charged for the guarantee. In the event that any losses arise from the guarantee scheme, the Government will ensure that they are borne by the banking sector rather than the taxpayer."
...
Government sources last night indicated that, under the scheme, a separate contract will be drawn up with each of the six financial institutions (or seven, if Ulster Bank is included) covered by the scheme.

According to one senior source: "There will not be a standard price. The amount that will be charged will reflect the risk involved for the State as well as the nature of the balance sheet of the particular institution."

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/1003/1222959305901.html?via=mr

Mr.Micro

The same people are still in their jobs ,the same inept regulators, the same system in effect with no doubt the same attitudes. How can anyone be confident no matter what the government say? No real detail of the levies expected or other how it is going to be administered and by who? If the central bank and the Monopoly Regulator were not able to do the job up to now, who then will be able to do the job, and things have got a hell of a lot more complicated? Answer, nobody, because its impossible and its a huge gamble and means putting trust and faith in the banks to behave and be honest. No chance of that. All their bad debts will be laundered now at the expense of the taxpayer.

Caoimhín

djpbarry wrote: »

No, the state of a particular institution's balance sheet will determine how much the guarantee will cost them:

Right, but who does the audit of the assets. The banks are still valuing 3 acres of land in Leitrim at 7 million euros because of its "development potential".

The wholesale money markets know the Irish banks have been in dreamland regarding their assets/loans to developers, thats what sparked this crisis.

Kama

The banks are still valuing 3 acres of land in Leitrim at 7 million euros because of its "development potential".

The wholesale money markets know the Irish banks have been in dreamland regarding their assets/loans to developers, thats what sparked this crisis.

QFT. Thats why I'm more than a little cagey about our economy having beeen 'saved' by the government guaranteeing these loans; the 'it could have happened to anyone' line seemed to ignore the specific rather than systemic reasons why Irish banks couldn't borrow on the money markets

Devils in the details, anyway. Details none of us know. Meh.

I guess we could pick up some social housing estates in Leitrim on the cheap? Plenty to choose from!

DadaKopf

At this point, I'd actually consider buying a dishevilled cottage in Leitrim and subsisting off the land. It's like the 1970s all over again.

djpbarry

DadaKopf wrote: »

At this point, I'd actually consider buying a dishevilled cottage in Leitrim and subsisting off the land. It's like the 1970s all over again.

Here it is, your dream home:
www.daft.ie/1326546

Caoimhín

DadaKopf wrote: »

It's like the 1970s 1870's all over again.

More accurate

SkepticOne

djpbarry wrote: »

Here it is, your dream home:
www.daft.ie/1326546

A snip at €65,000.

Kama

'Suitable for renovation', and an 'ideal investment'!

Caoimhín

Close to trees and nature = Overgrown and full of rats.

djpbarry

caoibhin wrote: »

Close to trees and nature = Overgrown and full of rats.

I'm not sure Leitrim folk will appreciate being referred to in such a manner.

Sand

My god how quickly did the greens lose their high ideals once their butts hit the government benches.

Probably theyre learning its easier to drive from the backseat than from the front.