Motoring Predictions

RobAMerc

Can anyone predict the future of motoring and whats held in store for Ireland beleaguered motorists ?

I predict the diesel will loose favour in the future as petrol gains massively from new technology, and people get tired of the black stuff polluting the cities.

I also bought a diesel on Saturday - so the collapse I expect will be in the 12 - 18 month period exactly when I am looking to sell up and move on. ( forgive my pessimism )

Mr.David

Tricky one. I agree that the petrol engine will endure, especially when compression ignition technology becomes economically viable. But diesels wont fall by the wayside any time soon thats for sure. The internal combustion engine will be around in one form or other for a long time yet, but I think that in 10yrs time small micro cars with electric motors will become popular in densely populated areas i.e. cities.

JoeySully

I predict that within 100 years, cars will be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger, and so expensive that only the five richest kings of the world will own them.:D

ART6

If John Gormley manages to stay in power for the next four years you won't be allowed to have a car.

Andrewf20

I predict cars will start to get less heavy again thru light weight materials becoming cheaper to manufacture. Better ecomony from engines pretty much a given.

I dont believe that cars will look like this in future: http://cache.gizmodo.com/assets/resources/2007/12/FastLaneCar003.jpg, just like in every film thats set in the future.

Steve

Fuel cell all electric will pop up within the next 10 years.

The only barriers to them now are cost, fuel types & fuel availability.
Tapping our landfill sites and other bio-waste plants could provide a lot of the fuel effectively for free.

-Chris-

Diesel will get more expensive.
Diesel cars will come into, and fall out of favour due to more expensive fuel and reduced resale values.
CO2 figures will fall rapidly.
VRT bands will be squeezed down to compensate for cleaner cars.
Road tax rates will increase significantly.
Tax on fuel will increase.
Trends will be (for two car families) towards one really small city car and one family car.
Electric will be launched, but won't catch on.

Seth Brundle

Its hard to tell. Whilst fuel cell technology is being developed by some manufacturers are going the hydrogen route.
I think the eventual winner will be the one that can produce more energy for less. Unless electricity comes down in price as new production methods come onstream, price may push people away from this. Also because it can take 10-20 hours to charge a car, this will really need to change for people to switch.

Anan1

Mr.David wrote: »

Tricky one. I agree that the petrol engine will endure, especially when compression ignition technology becomes economically viable.

Do you mean compression ignition for petrol? I didn't even know people were trying to do that! What would be the advantages over using a spark?

RobAMerc

I am sure he means variable compression.

Steve

RobAMerc wrote: »

I am sure he means variable compression.

What's that all about?

-Chris-

Anan1 wrote: »

Do you mean compression ignition for petrol? I didn't even know people were trying to do that! What would be the advantages over using a spark?

I think it's probably this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HCCI

Being used for the new Merc Diesotto engines.

RedorDead

Diesel Hybrids (when lower costs eventually make it viable)
and/or
More cars along the lines of the Tesla Roadster

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Roadster

E92

I think the Multiair system that FIAT are developing could prove to be really interesting.

After all it is touted by some as doing for petrol what common rail did for diesel.

In the short term, diesel will continue to be very popular here, I don't see people moving away from it anything like as soon as RobAMerc says, but from 2014 when they toughen up diesel standards a lot more, and we see AdBlue and other technologies coming on stream which will make diesels more expensive to produce, I do think that it will lose its popularity.

That and the fact that some day the EU may wake up to the fact that the WHO estimates that 80,000 Europeans die every year from diesel fumes, not to mention the fact that diesel burns 13% more CO2 for every litre burned than petrol, combined with advances like direct injection in petrol engine, will bring buyers back towards petrol. In fact it has already happened in parts of Europe like Germany, where the tide is turning back towards the petrol engine since the start of the year.

In 5 - 10 years time, I don't see diesel being anything like as popular in Europe, we should have HCCI for petrol engines, and that will give diesel economy but petrol cleanliness, thus making diesel redundant.

Hybrids are here to stay though, no question about that, cars will have smaller engines with fewer cylinders(unfortunately) but have more technology making them ever more efficient.

VH

AudiChris wrote: »

I think it's probably this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HCCI

Being used for the new Merc Diesotto engines.

there is a link in that article to a preview of the hcci vectra from may in autoexpress - doesn't seem hugely impressive - i think similar improvements could be had from existing technology

e92 wrote:

I think the Multiair system that FIAT are developing could prove to be really interesting.

not so sure about this one - multiair sounds almost like the hydraulic bastard offspring of a mating of of bmw's valvetronic and honda's vtec - but the confusing bit is fiat seem to be planning on replacing 4 cylinder engines with 2 cylinder engines

Mr.David

VH wrote: »

there is a link in that article to a preview of the hcci vectra from may in autoexpress - doesn't seem hugely impressive - i think similar improvements could be had from existing technology

The 1.8-litre engine puts out 238bhp and 295bhp of torque, and Merc reckons it'll return 40mpg in a car the size of an S-Class. Wedge it into a hatchback and it could return 70-odd mpg. Are you not impressed by that? I certainly am!

When starting and under full load, the fuel/air mixture is ignited by a spark plug, as in a conventional spark-ignition engine (homogeneous combustion). The controlled auto ignition to which the DiesOtto automatically reverts within its working cycle occurs under partial load conditions, i.e. at low and medium engine speeds.

The result is the very low nitrogen oxide emissions of homogeneous combustion at reduced reaction temperatures. All further emissions control in the DiesOtto engine is by means of a standard three-way catalytic converter. A highly efficient engine management and control system has also been realised to combine the individual sub-systems into a drive concept.