September 2008 Forecast/Analysis

Deep Easterly

Supercell, Will open this if ok, as you seem occupied . Feel free to change the questions if you must, but I will try to keep to your style

Overall mean for September is 12.8c. (double checked this time).

Questions below which include my own reckonings.

1. Overall September Mean (12.6c)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (19.9c)
2a. At which station? (Oak Park)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (1.3c)
3a. At which station? (Claremorris)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (80%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.4c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (17.3mm)

Good luck everyone. :cool:

nacho libre

1. Overall September Mean (13.7c)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (22.6c)
2a. At which station? (Shannon)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (2.7c)
3a. At which station? (Birr)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (85%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.3c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (15.1mm)

jd

1. Overall September Mean (13.5c)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (22.1c)
2a. At which station? (Oakpark)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (2.1c)
3a. At which station? (Birr)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (98%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (+0.4c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (11.1mm)

M.T. Cranium

1. Overall September Mean (13.3c)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (24.5c)
2a. At which station? (Casement)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (1.5c)
3a. At which station? (Dublin)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (103%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (+0.3c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (2.0 mm)

So now you know what it won't be like

squonk

1. Overall September Mean (13.4c)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (21.2c)
2a. At which station? (Oak Park)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (1.3c)
3a. At which station? (Birr)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (72%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.7c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (25.1mm)

squonk

Can I scrub the last post? I forgot to enter my coolest temp... sorry about this mods...

1. Overall September Mean (13.4c)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (21.2c)
2a. At which station? (Oak Park)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (2.5c)
3a. At which station? (Birr)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (72%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.7c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (25.1mm)

arctictree

1. Overall September Mean (14.1c)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (23.2c)
2a. At which station? (Kilkenny)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (3.1c)
3a. At which station? (Birr)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (122%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (+0.7c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (0.0mm)

Strasser

1. Overall September Mean (13.0c)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (21.2c)
2a. At which station? (Dublin AP)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (0.5c)
3a. At which station? (Mullingar)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (95%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (+0.4c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (7.0mm)

kindredspirit

Although I seem to be useless at this , here goes.

1. Overall September Mean (13.8c)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (20.8c)
2a. At which station? (Kilkenny)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (3.5c)
3a. At which station? (Mullingar)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (103%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (+1.0c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (5.4mm)

DOCARCH

1. Overall September Mean 13.2c
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? 23.2c
2a. At which station? Shannon
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? 2.8c
3a. At which station? Mullingar
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? 98%
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? +0.4c
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. 3.2mm

ch750536

1. Overall September Mean (12.4c)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (21.9c)
2a. At which station? (Shannon)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (2.2c)
3a. At which station? (Dublin AP)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (83%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.1c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (0 mm)

Danno

1. Overall September Mean 13.0c
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? 22.4c
2a. At which station? Oak Park, Carlow
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? 1.6c
3a. At which station? Ballyhaise
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? 117%
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? +0.3c
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. 0.2mm

gurramok

1. Overall September Mean 13.1c
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? 21.5c
2a. At which station? Shannon
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? 0.3c
3a. At which station? Dublin
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? 90%
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? +0.5c
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. 9mm

Trogdor

1. Overall September Mean 12.7c
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? 21.2c
2a. At which station? Shannon
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? 0.8c
3a. At which station? Birr
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? 105%
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? +0.2c
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. 12.4mm

Mobhi1

1. Overall September Mean 13.5c
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? 22.8c
2a. At which station? Oak Park, Carlow
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? 0.8c
3a. At which station? Dublin Airport
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? 110%
5. Mean temperature difference from normal at Cork Airport? +1.0c
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. 6.0mm

Supercell

1. Overall September Mean (13.1c)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (22.4c)
2a. At which station? (Shannon)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (1.1c)
3a. At which station? (Mullingar)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (90%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.3c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park 7mm

Kindredspirit - Kilkenney's station is closed now, shall i assume your Kilkenny prediction is for Oak Park instead?

nacho libre

I feel I've set the mean too high. sorry supercell

1. Overall September Mean (13.3c)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (21.8c)
2a. At which station? (Shannon)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (2.3c)
3a. At which station? (Birr)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (95%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.3c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (11.2mm)

nilhg

1. Overall September Mean (13.2c)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (21.1c)
2a. At which station? (Shannon)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (1.8c)
3a. At which station? (Birr)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (111%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (+1.1c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (1.3mm)

Snowbie

1. Overall September Mean (14C)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (22.5c)
2a. At which station? (Birr)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (2.2c)
3a. At which station? (Mullingar)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (80%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.5c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park 12mm

Hal1

1. Overall September Mean (15C)
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (23c)
2a. At which station? (Casement)
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (4.1c)
3a. At which station? (Knock Airport)
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (92%)
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (1.5c)
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park 5mm

Hope I'm not too late with this

Deep Easterly

Final Overall Mean for August 08 came it at 15.1c, 0.6c above average:



West coolest in general.

Despite the warmer than average conditons, Mean maxima was slightly below, due in no small part to the consistancy of cloud. Mean minima, on the other hand, was well above normal. A cruel irony that destroyed this summer month.

Tables of Max/Min anomalies:






Rainfall during August was well distributed across the country, Connaght, North Munster and parts of N.E Leinster proved to be the wetter places.

Table below shows the Overall Mean Rainfall for August, with a second table showing more station accumulations. This chart suggests that the extreme north, and the southern half a leinster were the driest areas during the month, relatively speaking.

Overall, mean rainfall was around twice that of normal.






Pressure wise, August 08 was marked by its consistantly below normal values. Although pressure did rise in the last few days, it failed to reach the August norm of 1014 mb. Mean values finished off at 1006.5 mb, which equates to around 7.0 mb below normal.



Wind wise, nothing out of the ordinary. A few windy days were balanced out by a lot of calmness during the month. Mean windspeeds came in around or just above normal: (8.5 Knts against the 61-90 mean of 8.2 Knts)

Tables below of daily mean windspeed values, and mean daily directional values:



General mean direction, based on 00hrs-00hrs daily means equated to 225 degrees, which is bang on southwesterly:




Simplistic Climate Analysis of the year of 2008 up to and including August:

Overall Mean temperature deviation:



A slight warming phase took place during August.

Deviational values of both the January-August periods of both 2007 and 2008 when set against the 61-90 mean:



The warm August of 2008 failed to bring the January-August yearly average to the levels achieved by the same period in 2007. Although, at 0.84c, it is still almost 1.0c above the 61-90 mean.

Rainfall Means and Totals for the January-August period:



2008 proving to be much wetter than 2007 so far, which in turn was much wetter than the 61-90 average.

Totals for the Jan-Aug period of 2008 at each of the 10 main stations:



Southwest and West the wettest areas, while the East and Midlands escaped the worst of the rainfall, as would be the norm.

I wonder is that why more people live in that region?

Met Eireann's more detailed sum up of the month can be read here, as can their summer analysis.

*All tables based on values from the main 10 Met Eireann stations (O.I.M), except wind and pressure charts, which only incorporate mean values from Malin Head, Belmullet, Casement, Birr and Roaches Point.

Sources. Met Eireann, Ogimet, NOAA.

rc28

1. Overall September Mean 12.9c
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? 21.5c
2a. At which station? Casement
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month?[0.9c
3a. At which station? Birr
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? 105%
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? +0.3c
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (10mm)

Sorry i'm so late with this- only noticed the thread now.

Supercell

Fantastic work there Paddy, really appreciate it, you really know how to present the stats beautifully.

Weather BOFH

Apologies, just back from a few days away, hope I'm not too late!

1. Overall September Mean: 13.8C
2. Highest recorded temperature of the month?: 22.2C
2a. At which station?: Casement
3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month?: 1.9C
3a. At which station?: Mullingar
4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month?: 75%
5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport?: 0.7C
6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park: 16mm

ch750536

Hang on, his highest temp & station were yesterdays data!!:eek:

nacho libre

yes, thanks paddy1 for all the time you put into presenting an engaging overview of the weather each month. This month made for particulary interesting reading. I was surprised to see Belmullet recorded the highest rainfall total.

Supercell

Hmm Nemonoid...I'm not sure what to do with your temp forecasts..i declare shenanigans!!
In case I'm accused of bias (you being next to me in the league table and all) I'll leave it up to the rest to decide.

So what to ye all think, allow Nemonoids temperature forecasts or zero value them?

Deep Easterly

I think it would be a bit harsh to drop Numoniods guess! the month is long and anything can happen.

Stats up to midnight 5th:

Overall Mean: 12.6c (-0.1c)
Overall Mean Max: 15.9c (-0.4c)
Overall Mean Min: 9.4c (+0.2c)

Overall Mean Rainfall: 40.3 mm (44.3%)
Overall Mean Windspeed: 9.7 Kts (+0.4 Kts)
Overall Mean Pressure: 1003.9 mb (-17 mb)

Supercell

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I think it would be a bit harsh to drop Numoniods guess! the month is long and anything can happen.

Stats up to midnight 5th:

Overall Mean: 12.6c (-0.1c)
Overall Mean Max: 15.9c (-0.4c)
Overall Mean Min: 9.4c (+0.2c)

Overall Mean Rainfall: 40.3 mm (44.3%)
Overall Mean Windspeed: 9.7 Kts (+0.4 Kts)
Overall Mean Pressure: 1003.9 mb (-17 mb)

September is a change month and temperature maxes are usually at the beginning with a sharp fall off to the end.

For the league i give double points for exact monthly max and min forecasts..I dont think thats fair here.

nacho libre

Supercell wrote: »

September is a change month and temperature maxes are usually at the beginning with a sharp fall off to the end.

For the league i give double points for exact monthly max and min forecasts..I dont think thats fair here.

if it was a genuine mistake then i say let it stand. although, i would prefer he didn't move above me on the table:pac:

Weather BOFH

I'm lost, I know I was late but I don't get what's wrong with my temps?!?!

Strasser

ch750536 wrote: »

Hang on, his highest temp & station were yesterdays data!!:eek:

My vote would be to let him in despite being late but if the above is true then these 2 questions should have new answers entered.

Weather BOFH

ch750536 wrote: »

Hang on, his highest temp & station were yesterdays data!!:eek:

Ummm...I dunno where that came from but my temps weren't from the 1st, from met.ie:

Casement Max: 17.9C
Dublin AP Max: 18.1C

Neither my max temp or station were correct, I guessed for 22.2C at Casement. I don't understand the problem or am I missing something completely?!?!

Supercell

Nemonoid, my apologies, i took ch750536's post at face value without verifying that he was rabble rousing myself.

/Note to self - intarweb reports are not to be trusted!!

Your forecast 's stand, and ch750536 you are a bad bad man!!

nacho libre

Did shannon reach 18.4 yesterday?

Supercell

Yep.

ch750536

Oops sorry guys, was pulling legs. No offence intended.:D

Weather BOFH

No worries, I didn't even notice your post at first ch, so I'd no idea what was going on!

Deep Easterly

Stats* up to midnight 10th.

Overall Mean: 12.8c (0.0c)
Overall Mean Max: 16.2c (-0.1c)
Overall Mean Min: 9.4c (+0.2c)
Overall Mean Windspeed: 10 knts (+0.8 Knts)

*All data based on figures from the 10 Met Eireann synoptic stations, and set against the 61-90 combined mean of each parameter.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Stats* up to midnight 10th.

Overall Mean: 12.8c (0.0c)
Overall Mean Max: 16.2c (-0.1c)
Overall Mean Min: 9.4c (+0.2c)
Overall Mean Windspeed: 10 knts (+0.8 Knts)

*All data based on figures from the 10 Met Eireann synoptic stations, and set against the 61-90 combined mean of each parameter.

the mean figure is a bit of a surprise considering we've had some fairly mild nights so far this month. if it's this low now i think it will finish well below by the end of the month.

anyway, tonight appear to be a cold one. it will be interesting to see what the temperature is and which station records it..

Deep Easterly

Mid month stats (up to midnight 15th)

Overall Mean (10 Station Mean)
Overall Mean: 13.0c (+0.2c)
Overall Mean Max: 16.2c (-0.1c)
Overall Mean Min: 9.7c (+0.4c)
Overall Mean Windspeed: 9.1 knots (-0.2 Knots)
Overall Mean Rainfall: 85.6 mm (94.1%)

5 station mean:
Mean Pressure: 1005.1 mb (-9.0 mb)
Mean Wind Direction: 220.7 degrees (Southwest).

nacho libre

I wonder what the highest and lowest temperatures have been this month?

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

I wonder what the highest and lowest temperatures have been this month?

19.2c at Dublin Airport on the 9th, and 4.4c at both Birr on the 7th, and Mullingar on the 13th.

Mean today (up to midnight last) stands at 12.8c, bang on average, a slight drop on yesterday's value. The difference clear nights makes to the daily mean, as well as the monthly mean is incredible.

Edit, anybody know where Mothman is lately? I can't do this alone! Come back Mothman!

Snowbie

Mothman be AFK for awhile.

Yes Pat thats true about the mean, i say it will pick up a tad again over the next week and should finish in the low 13C for the month mean. The diurnal ranges in September can be large with mild days and clear nights and sets up an avg for the day balancing out mean values.(if minimal cloud cover both day and night of course)

I had hoped for lenghty southerlies for this month from 2nd week untill the end to raise the mean up, looks like i threw this month away and handed it to nacho.

BTW, do you keep on deleting your stats from Photobucket or overwriting them as i have notice them disappearing from some pages. IE: the first page on this thread?

nacho libre

Strasser is going to do very well this month. So far he has predicted the right stations for the lowest and highest temperatures and it looks like he'll be close to the mean temp' too.

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight 20th:

Overall Mean: 13.0c (+0.2c)
Overall Mean Max: 16.3c (0.0c)
Overall Mean Min: 9.7c (+0.4)

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

19.2c at Dublin Airport on the 9th, and 4.4c at both Birr on the 7th, and Mullingar on the 13th.

It seems there was a temperature of 19.6c in Shannon yesterday. I wonder is that now the highest temperature recorded so far this month?

M.T. Cranium

Just thought I would record on this thread a min of 2.0 at Birr on the 23rd seems to be the new monthly low so far.

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just thought I would record on this thread a min of 2.0 at Birr on the 23rd seems to be the new monthly low so far.

are you sure that wasn't the 24th?

M.T. Cranium

I'm sure it was the 24th now that you mention it.

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight 25th.

Overall Mean: (10 Station Mean)
Temp: 12.7c (-0.1c)
Max: 16.3c (0.0c)
Min: 9.0c (-0.2c)
Windspeed: 8.0 Knts (-1.3 Knts)

5 Station Mean:
Sea Level Pressure: 1014.0 mb (+0.7 mb)
Wind Direction: 219 Degrees (Southwest).