4 in 10 business owners expect house prices to fall by 20% to 40%

DonJose

FAT cats certainly won't be rushing out to buy property over the next year-and-a-half.

Over half of the businesses surveyed in the Sunday Independent Business Owners survey believe that house prices will fall by more than 20 per cent by the end of 2009. About four in 10 business owners expect house prices to fall by between 20 and 40 per cent.

Almost one in 10 believe that the fall could be more dramatic -- 8.9 per cent of those surveyed expect house prices to dive by over 40 per cent by the end of 2009.

This is an even gloomier prediction than that put forward by stockbrokers NCB, which last month forecast that house prices would fall between 33 and 40 per cent below their peak in 2006.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/house-prices-still-have-long-way-to-fall-1451270.html

johnnyskeleton

DonJose wrote: »

FAT cats certainly won't be rushing out to buy property over the next year-and-a-half.

Over half of the businesses surveyed in the Sunday Independent Business Owners survey believe that house prices will fall by more than 20 per cent by the end of 2009. About four in 10 business owners expect house prices to fall by between 20 and 40 per cent.

Almost one in 10 believe that the fall could be more dramatic -- 8.9 per cent of those surveyed expect house prices to dive by over 40 per cent by the end of 2009.

This is an even gloomier prediction than that put forward by stockbrokers NCB, which last month forecast that house prices would fall between 33 and 40 per cent below their peak in 2006.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/house-prices-still-have-long-way-to-fall-1451270.html

Do the other half think prices will stabilise or rise?

40% by the end of 2009 is unlikely; i think it will take much longer before we see that kind of drop.

DonJose

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

40% by the end of 2009 is unlikely; i think it will take much longer before we see that kind of drop.

Thats a 40% price drop from the 2006 peak. I've already seen some properties drop this much.

connundrum

Its a pity the survey wasn't more detailed as I'd wonder if those questioned believe that property prices will fall by that much, or whether they would vary their answer greatly if given the choice between apartments, houses and commercial property.

I see apartment values falling 30 - 40%, houses falling 10 - 15% and don't have enough info concerning commercial property.

jimmycrackcorm

It's all good though, the sooner we get to the bottom the quicker we can start to recover and hopefully people will learn their lesseon 2nd time round.

jmayo

Ah yes but what does the real sindo property expert Mr O'Connor think

IronMan

jmayo wrote: »

Ah yes but what does the real sindo property expert Mr O'Connor think

Brendan is out with all the smart ballsy guys buying property as we speak. There is never a bad time to buy property according to Brendan. Brendan is qualified to speak on all matters from matters of foreign policy, the economy, to the evils of eating refined carbs. He truly is a national treaure.

Colonel Sanders

IronMan wrote: »

Brendan is out with all the smart ballsy guys buying property as we speak. There is never a bad time to buy property according to Brendan. Brendan is qualified to speak on all matters from matters of foreign policy, the economy, to the evils of eating refined carbs. He truly is a national treaure.

SimpleSam06

connundrum wrote: »

houses falling 10 - 15%

Sure you can get that much off most houses just by asking for it, these days.

The_Conductor

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Sure you can get that much off most houses just by asking for it, these days.

Very true- most sellers are just happy to have someone interested at all, with the state of the financial markets.....

As for non-FTBs, the new standard is a two-way offer- offer no. 1 being what the seller considers a reasonable offer for the property- however its contingent on the sale of another property, offer two- being a cash offer, would normally be 10-20% shy of the asking price.

IronMan

Even 10-20% off the asking price is still opportunistic I think. Look at this place in Ballsbridge. 4 bedroom terrace, in a prime location. €800k. Places like this were going for 1.6 in early 2006. And this is in an area that has inherant location added value. A 40% drop is optimistic.

http://www.oconnorshannon.ie/properties/property_detail.asp?propId=548

johnnyskeleton

IronMan wrote: »

Even 10-20% off the asking price is still opportunistic I think. Look at this place in Ballsbridge. 4 bedroom terrace, in a prime location. €800k. Places like this were going for 1.6 in early 2006. And this is in an area that has inherant location added value. A 40% drop is optimistic.

http://www.oconnorshannon.ie/properties/property_detail.asp?propId=548

But that's already a 50% drop from 2006 prices (if they really were selling for €1.6m)