Red C Poll

dresden8

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0727/eulisbon.html

How Freaking ironic is this line

Micheál Martin described the poll, which was carried out by Red C for UK campaign group Open Europe, as 'outside interference in our national debate'.

Hope he told Sarkozy and the Germans to p1ss off so.

oscarBravo

What I found depressingly predictable about that poll was the way the question was phrased. People were asked whether they agreed with the statement: "The Irish government should do as the French president has reportedly said and organise a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty."

Not a loaded question at all. No siree-bob.

utick

well the irish people said no in the only poll that matters, its a pity that many refuse to accept the voice of the people

fly_agaric

hmm OpenEurope ... any overlap with the sort of constituency in Britain (well, England) who complain that the crafty paddies bled them dry through structural funding? Now our public opinion becomes their catspaw in the game of undermining the EU!...the ironies are so massive...:pac:

is_that_so

William Hague, an ex-leader of a current non-Irish opposition with a Eurosceptic leaning, also spoke to us in yesterday's Irish Times and suggested that outside interference was not acceptable. :rolleyes:

mike65

I was amused with the governments later response when asked about thier own publicly funded polling on the matter - it seems we will have to wait and see if they deign to publish it. Democracy my arse.

The Irish government should do as the French president has reportedly said and organise a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty."

Not sure how this is loaded unless you refer to mention of Sarkozy, oB.

Mike.

Scofflaw

mike65 wrote: »

I was amused with the governments later response when asked about thier own publicly funded polling on the matter - it seems we will have to wait and see if they deign to publish it. Democracy my arse.

The Irish government should do as the French president has reportedly said and organise a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty."

Not sure how this is loaded unless you refer to mention of Sarkozy, oB.

That would pretty much be it. If you put the question as:

"The Irish government should do as the British Tory Party/Sinn Fein say and refuse a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty."

...you might well get a different balance of Yes and No. The reference to Sarkozy is entirely irrelevant to the question itself, so there's only one reason for adding it - to give the question an emotional spin. A reductio ad absurdum would produce something like this:

"The Irish government should allow our domestic affairs to be dictated by foreign leaders and organise a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty"

It's not really a question - it's a slightly turned-round slogan, and the point of a slogan is to evoke a specific answer.

cordially,
Scofflaw

dresden8

Why does the government (and Avril Doyle) go on about it's a British group bringing this stuff up.

Surely we can't hate the Brits any more since the Good Friday Agreement.

Next thing Martin will be coming out with "That Scottish pr1ck Brown".

Where's Conor Lenihan when you need him?

fly_agaric

dresden8 wrote: »

Why does the government (and Avril Doyle) go on about it's a British group bringing this stuff up.

Surely we can't hate the Brits any more since the Good Friday Agreement.

It's not about "hating the Brits" (all 65 million of them) - it's just that (I think) we should be worried when our own public opinion seems to be assisting the goals of those we know have no great liking for this country or concern for our future (UKIPers/British far right & the tories).


Running this sort of poll and biasing the question to try and make sure you receive the "right" result is more about casting around on the ground for a handy cudgel to beat the EU with than actually trying to find out what people think.

dresden8

fly_agaric wrote: »

It's not about "hating the Brits" (all 65 million of them) - it's just that (I think) we should be worried when our own public opinion seems to be assisting the goals of those we know have no great liking for this country or concern for our future (UKIPers/British far right & the tories).


Running this sort of poll and biasing the question to try and make sure you receive the "right" result is more about casting around on the ground for a handy cudgel to beat the EU with than actually trying to find out what people think.

What, like the referendum?

dresden8

Anyway, I never did get a reply to this point.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055317580&highlight=avril+doyle

WooPeeA

oscarBravo wrote: »

What I found depressingly predictable about that poll was the way the question was phrased. People were asked whether they agreed with the statement: "The Irish government should do as the French president has reportedly said and organise a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty."

Not a loaded question at all. No siree-bob.

Sounds like UKIP's work..

Scofflaw

WooPeeA wrote: »

Sounds like UKIP's work..

More the other way round - Open Europe provides the thinking power and research for a lot of UKIP stuff. Try googling "UKIP openeurope" - lots of UKIP sites have various "thanks to Open Europe for providing this research".

Also, it seems Open Europe have 'form' in the matter of slanted polls. This is a quote:

There are opinion polls flying in all directions, and they contradict each other, too. A TNS Sofres poll found 64 per cent of the French population thought their nation has been weakened in Europe by voting No.

On the British side of the Channel, Open Europe, the Eurosceptic think tank, put out a poll today, (www.openeurope.org.uk) showing that the number of people who would vote No in France and Holland today, if there were another referendum on the Constitution, has actually gone up in both countries.

That seems about right there was still another poll by Libération, the French newspaper, earlier this month, which found that 98 per cent of No voters from last year did not regret their choice, but only 89 per cent of Yes voters were equally happy with the way they cast their ballots, a year ago.

More problematically, Open Europe says its polling found "a very large majority of voters in both countries now want to take back power from the EU".

I hate to say this, because I know and like the Open Europe people, but I think the bulk of their poll is not that useful, because the wording of their questions was not neutral enough.

When you craft an opinion poll, you have to be exquisitely careful not to nudge people into the answer you want, by loading the language of each question.

...from the Telegraph Blog, no less, in 2006 after the Constitution was rejected.

cordially,
Scofflaw

WooPeeA

Scofflaw wrote: »

More the other way round - Open Europe provides the thinking power and research for a lot of UKIP stuff. Try googling "UKIP openeurope" - lots of UKIP sites have various "thanks to Open Europe for providing this research".

You're right, I googled it.. But honestly "Open Europe" doesn't sound much UKIPed.. They should rather re-name it to "Isolated GB" or "Let's ask the question back to front so people will have no idea how to vote"...

tolosenc

The Sarkozy mention in there is ridiculous, why not go (as mentioned above) reductio ad absurdio? "So as to kill unborn foetuses, the Irish Government..."

"The Irish government should, in an effort to avoid ostracisation and isolation within the European Union, reattempt to pass the Lisbon treaty into law."
- Wonder what the response to that would have been.

O'Morris

If I was a yes voter I would be far less concerned about the low level of support for a second referendum than I would be about the likely result of the second referendum. Nobody has yet quoted the most important findings of the poll:

Of those who expressed an opinion, 62% said they would vote No versus 34% for Yes.

The poll also found that 17% of Yes voters would change their mind in a second referendum compared to 6% of those who voted No.

People shouldn't make the mistake either of assuming that being opposed to a second referendum is the same as being anti-Lisbon. Eamon Gilmore is opposed to a second referendum even though he supported the Lisbon Treaty. I'm very much in favour of a second referendum even though I'm opposed to the Lisbon Treaty.

SkepticOne

obl wrote: »

"The Irish government should, in an effort to avoid ostracisation and isolation within the European Union, reattempt to pass the Lisbon treaty into law."
- Wonder what the response to that would have been.

Another "No" I would think. People need to be sold on the positive aspects of the treaty rather than the negative consequences of not ratifying it.

If there is a rerun then it needs to be along the lines of: "Lisbon is a great treaty and we should support it because..."

mike65

62% said they would vote No versus 34% for Yes.

Of that 62% would Scofflaw or anyone else care to hazzard a guess what % was completely fooled by the question, and so would have said YES has the question been

Should the Irish government organise a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty?.

Mike.

is_that_so

O'Morris wrote: »

If I was a yes voter I would be far less concerned about the low level of support for a second referendum than I would be about the likely result of the second referendum. Nobody has yet quoted the most important findings of the poll:

People shouldn't make the mistake either of assuming that being opposed to a second referendum is the same as being anti-Lisbon. Eamon Gilmore is opposed to a second referendum even though he supported the Lisbon Treaty. I'm very much in favour of a second referendum even though I'm opposed to the Lisbon Treaty.

The poll is questionable, not only because of its loaded questions but also the "commissioner" of the pool and leads the cynical amongst us to wonder what purpose they really serve.

oscarBravo

mike65 wrote: »

Of that 62% would Scofflaw or anyone else care to hazzard a guess what % was completely fooled by the question, and so would have said YES has the question been

Should the Irish government organise a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty?.

Mike.

Such a guess would be an exercise in futility. The poll was based on a leading question, which makes its outcome effectively meaningless.

Morgans

Do those critcising the validity of the poll think that a truly independent poll would show a different result?

Seems to be pretty much in line with the attitude I am coming across.

I dont see any huge attitude of "Oh, we made a huge mistake" coming accross. In fact, at the moment, it appears that the country is happy with its decision.

mike65

oscarBravo you're copping out.

Mike.

O'Morris

is_that_so wrote:

The poll is questionable, not only because of its loaded questions but also the "commissioner" of the pool and leads the cynical amongst us to wonder what purpose they really serve.

The results of the poll are in line with the results of another poll carried out by the market research firm Behaviour Attitudes
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/0725/1216917539048.html

Fifty-four per cent of those polled said they were happy with the result, while 34 per cent were unhappy, and 11 per cent were undecided.

oscarBravo

mike65 wrote: »

oscarBravo you're copping out.

I disagree. I could stick a wet finger in the air and come up with a completely arbitrary percentage, but the honest answer is I don't know. Why would you want me to guess at something I have no way of knowing the answer to?

oscarBravo

O'Morris wrote: »

The results of the poll are in line with the results of another poll carried out by the market research firm Behaviour Attitudes
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/0725/1216917539048.html

That poll was carried out in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, and produced some rather bizarre results - see the other thread.

Morgans

Anyone who thinks that a referendum was scheduled for next week would result in a closer run thing that the orginal Lisbon referendum is not living in the same country that I am.

Again, while the question might be loaded, pooh-poohing all the opinion polls that show an increased "No" attitude is a head in the sand type reaction.

Its not a crime that the country voted No. Why delude yourself to think that a "fair" opionion poll would show a majority would vote Yes?

Scofflaw

Morgans wrote: »

Do those critcising the validity of the poll think that a truly independent poll would show a different result?

Seems to be pretty much in line with the attitude I am coming across.

I dont see any huge attitude of "Oh, we made a huge mistake" coming accross. In fact, at the moment, it appears that the country is happy with its decision.

Hmm. I don't find the overall conclusion - that another referendum held right now would be rejected, probably a bit more strongly - at all strange. However, I do think the poll is very poor. For example, this is the party support as recorded:

18-24:|FF17%|FG11%|Lab7%|SF22%|PD7%|Green18%|Ind6%
25-34:|FF20%|FG19%|Lab27%|SF31%|PD27%|Green21%|Ind27%
35-44:|FF17%|FG17%|Lab12%|SF22%|PD24%|Green29%|Ind21%
45-54:|FF16%|FG15%|Lab22%|SF10%|PD16%|Green21%|14%
55-64:|FF12%|FG19%|Lab11%|SF11%|PD15%|Green7%|16%
65+:|FF19%|FG18%|Lab21%|SF4%|PD12%|Green4%|15%

Now those figures are frankly bizarre. 29% support for the Greens in the 35-44 year old age group? 31% support for SF amongst 25-34 year olds? And 27% for the PDs in the same age group?

So, no, I really don't think much of the poll - and as I pointed out, Open Europe have produced exactly this kind of heavily slanted poll before. This is a political gambit - an attempt to persuade people that No is still the 'fashionable' choice - not an attempt to discover information.

cordially,
Scofflaw

oscarBravo

Morgans wrote: »

Anyone who thinks that a referendum was scheduled for next week would result in a closer run thing that the orginal Lisbon referendum is not living in the same country that I am.

Again, while the question might be loaded, pooh-poohing all the opinion polls that show an increased "No" attitude is a head in the sand type reaction.

Its not a crime that the country voted No. Why delude yourself to think that a "fair" opionion poll would show a majority would vote Yes?

Perhaps you should stop reading between the lines; I didn't write between them. All I've said is that the two recently published polls are sufficiently flawed that it's reasonable not to accept their findings at face value. If a non-biased poll is published with internally-consistent results, I'll judge it on its merits.

Morgans

oscarBravo wrote: »

Perhaps you should stop reading between the lines; I didn't write between them. All I've said is that the two recently published polls are sufficiently flawed that it's reasonable not to accept their findings at face value. If a non-biased poll is published with internally-consistent results, I'll judge it on its merits.

I never said that you were pooh-pooh the polls. I never quoted you for example, so, reading between the lines is pretty subjective. I actually think the responses to the polls is pretty close to the mark of public opinion, and even if the question was loaded, my hunch is that the results would have been pretty much the same, even if the question what stated plainly. The Yes side were very happy to throw around the poll figures post referendum regarding the amount of people who voted No that thought the Lisbon treaty could be renegotiated, without the same level of scrutiny attached.

Fair response Scofflaw, but as you allude to at the beginning of your post, the suspicion remains that No is the popular choice. Not sure about fashionable.

O'Morris

oscarBravo wrote: »

If a non-biased poll is published with internally-consistent results, I'll judge it on its merits.

Maybe it might be worth having an non-biased (i.e. worded by someone on the yes side) poll on this forum? I remember there was a poll on the Lisbon referendum that gave a result that wasn't far off the mark when it was compared to the actual referendum result.

oscarBravo

Morgans wrote: »

I never said that you were pooh-pooh the polls. I never quoted you for example, so, reading between the lines is pretty subjective.

I'm curious: who were you referring to?

I actually think the responses to the polls is pretty close to the mark of public opinion, and even if the question was loaded, my hunch is that the results would have been pretty much the same, even if the question what stated plainly.

I wouldn't bother speculating based on the people I've spoken to - they're hardly likely to represent a useful cross-section of the electorate.

oscarBravo

O'Morris wrote: »

Maybe it might be worth having an non-biased (i.e. worded by someone on the yes side) poll on this forum?

Nice dig. It manages to completely avoid the actual point being made by implying that its validity is a function of who made it. Easier than actually addressing the point, I suppose.

O'Morris

oscarBravo wrote: »

Nice dig.

It's not a dig, I'm serious when I say that it would be worth having a poll worded by someone on the yes side. It would help balance the results of the two other biased poll.

I'm confident that the result of any poll on this site will not be any different to the results of the other polls so it doesn't bother me which side asks the question.

Do you think it might be worth having a poll on this in this forum?

Scofflaw

Morgans wrote: »

I never said that you were pooh-pooh the polls. I never quoted you for example, so, reading between the lines is pretty subjective. I actually think the responses to the polls is pretty close to the mark of public opinion, and even if the question was loaded, my hunch is that the results would have been pretty much the same, even if the question what stated plainly. The Yes side were very happy to throw around the poll figures post referendum regarding the amount of people who voted No that thought the Lisbon treaty could be renegotiated, without the same level of scrutiny attached.

Not quite true - the survey that came from I have also read, with the same level of scrutiny. The questions in it are much more neutral. Nor did I have the same doubts over the pre-referendum polls that showed the No side ahead. My doubts are specifically about this poll.

Morgans wrote: »

Fair response Scofflaw, but as you allude to at the beginning of your post, the suspicion remains that No is the popular choice. Not sure about fashionable.

Well, we know it's the popular choice - there was some kind of vote thing last month, I think - it's more that Open Europe are, I would say, pushing something of a line. As to 'fashionable', it's surprising how many people prefer to have voted for the 'winning' side.

Still, yes, I would be very surprised (and deeply suspicious) if a poll came out and said that the popular choice was now Yes.

cordially,
Scofflaw

oscarBravo

O'Morris wrote: »

Do you think it might be worth having a poll on this in this forum?

Polls aren't allowed as a rule on the Politics forum and its descendants. The last one was an exception because DeVore wanted it, and also because there was a sitewide announcement drawing attention to it.

O'Morris

oscarBravo wrote: »

Polls aren't allowed as a rule on the Politics forum and its descendants.

I didn't ask you whether it was allowed. I asked you whether you thought it might be worth having the poll. The last poll was a success and was an accurate reflection of public opinion. I think a second poll would also be very helpful as we might find out if people really have changed their minds on Lisbon.

I'll send a PM to DeVore asking him to make an exception and allow the poll. I just wanted to let you know in advance so that you won't be surprised if he does go over your head on this. Can I let him know that I have your support for the second poll? Or do you think we should respect the result of the first one and forget about the second poll?

If it's not allowed on this forum then that's an opportunity for someone to start the poll over on that After Hours forum.

oscarBravo

O'Morris wrote: »

I asked you whether you thought it might be worth having the poll.

No, I don't think so. What would it achieve?

The last poll was a success and was an accurate reflection of public opinion. I think a second poll would also be very helpful as we might find out if people really have changed their minds on Lisbon.

We'll find out what a small cross-section of the boards.ie population - itself a small cross-section of the population, and including those not in the electorate - thinks.

I'll send a PM to DeVore asking him to make an exception and allow the poll. I just wanted to let you know in advance so that you won't be surprised if he does go over your head on this. Can I let him know that I have your support for the second poll? Or do you think we should respect the result of the first one and forget about the second poll?

"Respect the result"? What are you talking about?

No, you don't have my support for another poll.

If it's not allowed on this forum then that's an opportunity for someone to start the poll over on that After Hours forum.

I don't care what happens on After Hours, but if someone starts a thread there with the specific aim of getting it moved here to bypass the ban on polls, it will get locked when it gets here.

Any chance of dragging this thread back on topic?

mike65

A poll isn't required as there won't be another referendum vote, remember?

Or a simple YES/NO thread could be started (and then closed by oscarBravo)

Mike.