Dublin South By Election

PH01

Following the sad and untimely death of Seamus Brennan thoughts are now turning to who will fill his vacant seat in the Dublin South constituency.

The result of this poll, the date for which has yet to be decided upon, is likely to go against the government and to benefit either FG or Labour. Though it all depends on who the candidates will be.

Here's who I think will be running and who is likely to win.

FF | Senator Maria Corrigan - though she could find herself pushed for the ticket Lehart or someother;
FG | Jim O'Leary - he should be sure to get selected;
LAB | Alex White - Though he'll have to battle for this place with Aidan Culhane;
Greens | ??? - they may not even field a candidate;
PDs | ??? - I don't think Liz O'Donnell is still in the frame, so they might just go for Fiona O'Malley?;
SF | ??? - Sorcha Nic Cormaic, Shaun Tracey or ???
Others | ???


Though at the end of the day I reckon FG's Jim O'Leary might just pick up the seat.

What do you think?

Victor

Result from last year's election. http://www.oireachtas.ie/members-hist/default.asp?housetype=0&HouseNum=30&ConstID=90&disp=mem

Note it is for FF to call the by-election and they might not.

jmayo

Victor wrote: »

Result from last year's election. http://www.oireachtas.ie/members-hist/default.asp?housetype=0&HouseNum=30&ConstID=90&disp=mem

Note it is for FF to call the by-election and they might not.

Just wondering what is the official procedure and the legal constraints regarding calling by elections to replace TD who are no longer able to represent the constituency ?
Surely by not having an election the government is denying the voters/constituents their democratic rights ?

The_Minister

I don't know who will be running for the Pro-Dems, but my money would be on O'Malley.
Most of the areas that she would get most of her support from, and where she would be most active were moved into Dublin South in the last boundary redrawing.

Rumour has it (this is just rumour), that FG are going to shaft O'Leary and run Reagan instead. If they do, it'll split the South Dublin FG, so it might be unlikely, but Reagan has a better chance of winning.

For FF, I think Corrigan is the one.

Victor

jmayo wrote: »

Surely by not having an election the government is denying the voters/constituents their democratic rights ?

We don't live in a democracy - we live in a representatice democracy.

The_Minister wrote: »

Most of the areas that she would get most of her support from, and where she would be most active were moved into Dublin South in the last boundary redrawing.

The changes don't apply until the next general election.

ninty9er

Considering Corrigan was the last to be eliminated, it could just be a matter of passing the seat to her.

There is also the matter of FF outpolling FG, Labour and SF and other parties not forming part of the government combined.

kenco

This is bound to be very interesting and while Corrigan will be the FF candidate and would be far from sure that she will retain the seat. Its a funny one for FF as in the next election Kitt has said he wont be running so they could have no sitting TDs next time around.

With FF likely to take a kicking it could well be time for FG to hold 3 seats in the this constiuency and O'Leary could be the man (though FG could easy blow this if they try to parachute some one in).

O'Malley looks obvious for the PDs and White on his results in the last election should be the Labour candidate but I for one would not rule out the Greens running someone here. This is a straight fight and its possible it could be there best chance of having two TDs in the one consituency.

My gut feeling is FG with a poor FF result which will cause headaches for the general election

PH01

Victor wrote: »

Note it is for FF to call the by-election and they might not.

True, but can FF put it off until 2012 when the next GE is due?
I don't think so - http://www.citizensinformation.ie/categories/government-in-ireland/elections-and-referenda/national-elections/the_by_election

PH01

The Corrigan selection won't be plain sailing. Said to be the girlfriend of one of Bertie's pals Joe Burke, she might have to do some work to clear the decks before hand?

ninty9er

PH01 wrote: »

True, but can FF put it off until 2012 when the next GE is due?
I don't think so - http://www.citizensinformation.ie/categories/government-in-ireland/elections-and-referenda/national-elections/the_by_election

I had a feeling filling seats internally was only for council seats alright...otherwise why bother with by-elections at all.

The_Minister

ninty9er wrote: »

I had a feeling filling seats internally was only for council seats alright...otherwise why bother with by-elections at all.

They have some descretion on holding off on a by-election though.

LostinBlanch

The_Minister wrote: »

They have some descretion on holding off on a by-election though.

They do, but I think it's within 90 days of the seat becoming vacant IIRC. Though I'm open to correction on this, I don't think the 90 days count when the dail isn't sitting.

Victor

LostinBlanch wrote: »

They do, but I think it's within 90 days of the seat becoming vacant IIRC. Though I'm open to correction on this, I don't think the 90 days count when the dail isn't sitting.

http://www.citizensinformation.ie/categories/government-in-ireland/elections-and-referenda/national-elections/the_by_election

When a TD dies or resigns, the Dáil (one of the houses of Parliament in Ireland) passes a resolution directing that a writ be issued to the returning officer of the TD's constituency to hold an election to fill the vacancy. There is no time limit for the passing of the resolution by the Dáil.

ninty9er

I hear on the grapevine that it's likely that the seat will be contested by a Brennan to hold it.

LostinBlanch

Well that's the only chance FF have to hold it.

turgon

ninty9er wrote: »

I hear on the grapevine that it's likely that the seat will be contested by a Brennan to hold it.

I suppose they would garner a lot of sympathy votes.

Badabing

Goverment parties rarely win by-elections i think the last seat won was Brian Lenihan in 1996 after his father died, Fianna Fail are strong in Dublin south but to lose the seat would not be a major suprise as i think they should regain 2 seats at the next general election.

PH01

ninty9er wrote: »

I hear on the grapevine that it's likely that the seat will be contested by a Brennan to hold it.

That's news!
Though it just might work in a funny constituency like Dublin South.
However, this sort of thing only usually only works down the country.

ninty9er

PH01 wrote: »

That's news!
Though it just might work in a funny constituency like Dublin South.
However, this sort of thing only usually only works down the country.

Supposedly it was a request from the man himself. How true that is I don't know. It is the only hope of 2 seats at the next election though.

Corrigan **could ** win now but couldn't carry a running mate in 2012, but someone elected from nowhere could retain if they work hard and Corrigan could then keep Kitt's seat.

PH01

Read a snippet on the Sunday Times this week that Corrigan is unlikely to get the nomination for the by-election at this stage even though the word is now out that Maria is no longer 'walking out' with the infamous Joe Burke.

EamonnZ

Hi there,

with some harsh words mentioned about Independents, I'd like to take this opportunity to say that I will be running when the By Election is called.

In saying that, should I be successful with my campaign, I would like to see the emergence of a new political party. There is room for more and if one strong united party can emerge and become a powerful opposition to ensure good government, then why stick with the same old same old.

I have beliefs that I stand for, I wont say I believe in something when I do not, I will give my point of view without any icing on the cake to please the electorate. I am a hands on person, approachable and determined. I have a quite powerful track record in what one voice can do, if that one voice can multiply, think of what could be achieved.

I knew Seamus and met him on several occasions and he truly was a hands on person and he worked hard for his constituents.

Our problem in Ireland is that we are too apathetic with regards to voting, being told how to vote etc etc etc...

I have prepared all documents I require to submit to the returning officer.

FF are stagnant, they have not provided for in a credit crunch which was foretold well before now. FF were aware but did nothing, except worry about the tent at the Galway races... In the interim, those of you with mortgages are suffering, with children are suffering, we do have the emergence of a new poor!

Anyway, those who feel the need to snigger and sneer, please feel free to do so, but I will respect your opinions anyway, all I ask is that you respect mine.

More will follow in the coming weeks!

cheers

Eamonn Zaidan.

The_Minister

Given up on running for President:rolleyes:

oscarBravo

EamonnZ, boards.ie isn't a platform for you to advertise your various political campaigns. If you want to participate here, participate fully or don't bother.

ninty9er

EamonnZ wrote: »

Hi there,

with some harsh words mentioned about Independents, I'd like to take this opportunity to say that I will be running when the By Election is called.

In saying that, should I be successful with my campaign, I would like to see the emergence of a new political party. There is room for more and if one strong united party can emerge and become a powerful opposition to ensure good government, then why stick with the same old same old.

I have beliefs that I stand for, I wont say I believe in something when I do not, I will give my point of view without any icing on the cake to please the electorate. I am a hands on person, approachable and determined. I have a quite powerful track record in what one voice can do, if that one voice can multiply, think of what could be achieved.

I knew Seamus and met him on several occasions and he truly was a hands on person and he worked hard for his constituents.

Our problem in Ireland is that we are too apathetic with regards to voting, being told how to vote etc etc etc...

I have prepared all documents I require to submit to the returning officer.

FF are stagnant, they have not provided for in a credit crunch which was foretold well before now. FF were aware but did nothing, except worry about the tent at the Galway races... In the interim, those of you with mortgages are suffering, with children are suffering, we do have the emergence of a new poor!

Anyway, those who feel the need to snigger and sneer, please feel free to do so, but I will respect your opinions anyway, all I ask is that you respect mine.

More will follow in the coming weeks!

cheers

Eamonn Zaidan.

I've re-read the whole thread and not found one harsh word, not even a mention of independents, so get over yourself there!

Best of luck though!