Invest AIB or BOI....

eoiner-galway

so its happening, this country is going upside down, and who is going to suffer.... the banks, not because of poor status, but because of fear and blame.....

the one thing we do know is not to invest in either just yet, i would say they still have time to drop, but beign the two biggest banks in ireland, they will revive... (great article in the sunday business post today)

Bank of ireland http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:IRE

Allied Irish Bank http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:AIB

almost identical, take a look at their lifetime history, there is no question that they will still drop, but keep an eye on them as they will recover too "history has a fond habbit of repeating itself" this will be a long term investment..

but if you could catch them at the all time low, wait 10 years, there will be nice rewards to be made

What do you think.... AIB or BOI

zod

you talking about the Mcwilliams article ?

pocketdooz

eoiner-galway wrote: »

so its happening, this country is going upside down, and who is going to suffer.... the banks, not because of poor status, but because of fear and blame.....

the one thing we do know is not to invest in either just yet, i would say they still have time to drop, but beign the two biggest banks in ireland, they will revive... (great article in the sunday business post today)

Bank of ireland http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:IRE

Allied Irish Bank http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:AIB

almost identical, take a look at their lifetime history, there is no question that they will still drop, but keep an eye on them as they will recover too "history has a fond habbit of repeating itself" this will be a long term investment..

but if you could catch them at the all time low, wait 10 years, there will be nice rewards to be made

What do you think.... AIB or BOI

If you have to choose one

AIB - larger market cap. , better diversified , better regional/international diversification

PoleStar

Have to say, with 2 of the biggest lenders in the world ie Fannie/Freddie looking like they are gonna get a bail out from the Fed in the US, Im not sure if a similar disaster couldnt stike one of the Irish banks.

I think the Efficient Market Hypothesis might be right here

ie if Irish banks were a good buy, why is the share price so low?????

ixus

Eoiner, the banks have gone back to '99-'00 levels in those charts. So in the space of about 6-12 months all their profits have been wiped out. The market is revaluing the banks capabilities & profits. BOI can't even give a rough forecast as to what they will earn next year. That is shocking given finance is its business.

If you can tell me where either bank is going to make its money in the next 5-10 years that will bring it back to previous highs I will invest.

eoiner-galway

zod wrote: »

you talking about the Mcwilliams article ?

sorry wrong paper, the sunday indo

eoiner-galway

ixus wrote: »

Eoiner, the banks have gone back to '99-'00 levels in those charts. So in the space of about 6-12 months all their profits have been wiped out. The market is revaluing the banks capabilities & profits. BOI can't even give a rough forecast as to what they will earn next year. That is shocking given finance is its business.

If you can tell me where either bank is going to make its money in the next 5-10 years that will bring it back to previous highs I will invest.

what your saying makes sence.... but can you imagine an ireland without either of these two??? the banks are f***ed at the moment... but they just cant be at this same depression in ten years time... especially with the eu behind us...

Idu

eoiner-galway wrote: »

what your saying makes sence.... but can you imagine an ireland without either of these two??? the banks are f***ed at the moment... but they just cant be at this same depression in ten years time... especially with the eu behind us...

why?

pocketdooz

eoiner-galway wrote: »

what your saying makes sence.... but can you imagine an ireland without either of these two??? the banks are f***ed at the moment... but they just cant be at this same depression in ten years time... especially with the eu behind us...

Eoin

It's not right to make comments like this. I can imagine an Ireland without either of these two - sure, why not? BOI market cap. is only €5 billion. Look what happened to Barings Bank in the UK in the 90's - Look what just happened to Bear Stearns in the US - Look what happened to Northern Rock in the UK - Look what happened to REFCO in New York, the worlds largest currency trading firm - dissappeared in three days back in 2004 . . . the list goes on and on. I'm not saying it will happen ; but it certainly could happen.

On your second point - why not be in the same depression in 10 years time ? There are a number of reasons why we have lost our competitiveness internationally. Again, we probably won't be but there is a good chance we will be.

My point it that you can't have the outlook that "Oh, things just have to get better" - they don't, they can get worse, a lot worse, stay the same, get better, etc.

Just because the share price used to be a certain price, it does not follow that it will return to this price - this is a fallacy - it is . . . JUST . . . NOT . . . TRUE.

But, like I said in my original reply . . . if you HAVE to invest in either right now, go for AIB, for the reasons I listed above.

SteadyEddie

I do not hold BOI or AIB, but there is no way the Irish government will allow the collapse of either of those 2 banks. So much money is tied up in the banks, and if one was to go under it would decimate the Irish Economy (so much more than now). The government would not allow this at ANY cost.

Both fantastic long-term plays. The global banking sector revenues/profits as outlined in a McKinsey report I read is estimated to double by 2016, with the market capatilisation of banks being likely to be $12 trillion higher than today (written in January 2008).

Banking is going nowhere, just a very deep, long and painful correction.

Diarmuid

SteadyEddie wrote: »

but there is no way the Irish government will allow the collapse of either of those 2 banks. So much money is tied up in the banks, and if one was to go under it would decimate the Irish Economy (so much more than now). The government would not allow this at ANY cost.

They may step in and prevent it from failing, but that doesn't mean there won't be a world of pain for the shareholders. Witness Bear Stearns

pocketdooz

Diarmuid wrote: »

They may step in and prevent it from failing, but that doesn't mean there won't be a world of pain for the shareholders. Witness Bear Stearns

Barings Bank was the Queen's bank - it collapsed.

Northern Rock - we all know the story there

Countrywide in the US , the list goes on

SteadyEddie - you might be right , but you might be wrong.

SteadyEddie

Lets not forget the Irish government has heavily bailed out AIB in 1985 over the ICI debacle. I just cannot see the situation were the government would let one of its biggest banks down the tubes. Banking is based on confidence, and if the government was shown to let one of the big banks collapse then every person and business would pull every penny out of all the banks, leading to a collapse of Financial Services in Ireland. It would be a lot cheaper in Ireland to bail a bank out than let it collapse. Point of note is Northern Rock.

On a side note, AIB and BOI both have strong enough balance sheets to weather the financial storm, and their main trouble would be fending off any takeover attempts at these low prices.

eoiner-galway

aib also have 24% in m&t, i just cant see them collapsing... what does david mcwilliams always repeat.... "history has a fond habit of repeating itslef"

look at the history for aib and boi

around 1998 - 1999 both these banks suffered a short fall.... many reasons (irish econ's)... at the height of our fortune in 2007 both these banks hit $61 and $91 a share

greanted i doubt they will hit these highs again, but you can surley see a profit in 7 years time????

dunkamania

SteadyEddie wrote: »

I do not hold BOI or AIB, but there is no way the Irish government will allow the collapse of either of those 2 banks. So much money is tied up in the banks, and if one was to go under it would decimate the Irish Economy (so much more than now). The government would not allow this at ANY cost.

Preventing the collapse of a bank preserves the debtholders assets but not necessairily the equityholders. (see Northern Rock)

pocketdooz

eoiner-galway wrote: »

aib also have 24% in m&t, i just cant see them collapsing... what does david mcwilliams always repeat.... "history has a fond habit of repeating itslef"

look at the history for aib and boi

around 1998 - 1999 both these banks suffered a short fall.... many reasons (irish econ's)... at the height of our fortune in 2007 both these banks hit $61 and $91 a share

greanted i doubt they will hit these highs again, but you can surley see a profit in 7 years time????

You have no idea what you are talking about.

Please take the time to read your post - who cares what McWilliams says? Profits do not equal share price increases = you need to do some homework

Blue_Wolf

The EU will not be behind us if we vote no in the lisbon treaty, we will be ignored.

Tipsy Mac

Blue_Wolf wrote: »

The EU will not be behind us if we vote no in the lisbon treaty, we will be ignored.

We already did and they would have to change the rules of the EU to leave us behind.

BendiBus

Tipsy Mac wrote: »

they would have to change the rules of the EU to leave us behind.

Or just break the rules

eoiner-galway

ok... all valid points....

but really look at it.... aib is at if not heading to a low. Can the same be said in ten years time?

pocketdooz

eoiner-galway wrote: »

ok... all valid points....

but really look at it.... aib is at if not heading to a low. Can the same be said in ten years time?

That really doesn't make any sense to be honest, who knows where it'll be in 10 years.

The ISEQ was at 5000 back in 1998 (check this if you like www.ise.ie) , now it is around the same. That's ten years. If you bought the index 10 years ago, you would show no profit today. Not to mention the time value of money !! I think you are of the frame-of-mind that what goes down must come back up - that is simply not true unfortunately.

If you want to go ahead and invest, go ahead and do it.

There's little point in coming on here and asking others for advice and getting them to take their time to answer your post if you're adamant about going ahead with it anyway,

am I right ?

Best of luck with it if you decide to do it.

eoiner-galway

your not wrong...... sean quinn (irelands richest man) bought in to 21% of aib last weak.... or else is considering it....

BendiBus

I think it's Anglo Irish that Quinn bought.

stepbar

BendiBus wrote: »

I think it's Anglo Irish that Quinn bought.

and it was 15% not 21%

eoiner-galway

sorry your right....

Oafley Jones

eoiner-galway wrote: »

sorry your right....

You do realise that he already owned those shares in the form of CFDs.