The recession.

dresden8

Sigh

More than ten years of boom and all the EU money we could stick into our pockets.

A few months of lower sales of cars and houses and we don't have a pot to piss in.

Who do we hang?

My vote is Fianna Fáil and all the idiots who voted for them. But since we won't know who voted for them we know who donated and campaigned for them!

staker

:rolleyes: the media

Kama

I blame society.
That always works.

stepbar

You'd need a fairly big pot to p1ss in......

2012. We have these cnuts until 2012. God help us all.

the_syco

dresden8 wrote: »

Who do we hang?

The builders for charging so much for the houses in the first place.

FG for doing f**k all. Criticize FF all you want, but that's easy to do. Give an alternative, that's hard. That requires work.

stepbar

And FF for allowing it to happen...........

Lets face it, we had the best alternative in 10 odd years and the voting public turned their nose up at it. I hope they are prepared for what's to come because if FF come out after 2012 with another election victory the nation should hang their head in shame.

dresden8

the_syco wrote: »

The builders for charging so much for the houses in the first place.

FG for doing f**k all. Criticize FF all you want, but that's easy to do. Give an alternative, that's hard. That requires work.

Surely not! Has Inda not electrified the opposition? Electrocuted more like.
Still, "the opposition never stopped us" is no excuse for a piss poor incompetent government.

brianthebard

stepbar wrote: »

You'd need a fairly big pot to p1ss in......

2012. We have these cnuts until 2012. God help us all.

i plan to go back to uni for the next 4 or 5 years then emigrate if things haven't picked up...what are ye going to do?

Dave!

I'm just gonna kill myself and get it over with!

leninbenjamin

you. the consumer. the person who bugger's off to the states or whatnot to buy all their junk at cheaper prices instead of keeping it in our economy. the person who signs up for a mortgage without budgeting for interest rate increases. the person who keeps buying on their credit cards even thought they don't have the means to pay. the person who happily whinges about outsourcing yet is the first one in the queue to go buy cheaply made substitutes at a discount. i can go on...

A recession is a collective occurrence. no one and everyone is to blame. you can point to and isolate individual incidents but it won't make a whit of a difference. you can blame the current govt. for not doing enough, or you can blame the current opposition for not offering a clear and viable alternative... it doesn't really matter.

remember: anyone can make money in a boom. but it takes a special individual to make money in a recession. instead of looking for who to blame we should be looking for how we can get the ball rolling again. but that would require constructive thinking...

edit: and apologies if this comes across as pedantic/aggressive/pigheaded. i'm just sick of all the crap we hear about the current state of affiars.

nesf

Eh, we can't have booms without busts. We should no more applaud FF or FG for creating the boom than we should blame them for the inevitable recession that would follow it. We ran surpluses during the boom times instead of spending it all (i.e. the right thing to do) which means we can run deficits during the bad. Things aren't that bad, 7% unemployment is being predicted and being fretted over, two decades ago if you offered people single digit unemployment they'd have jumped at it, etc.

Fratton Fred

Lack of regulation of the finance/estate agent industry and an over reliance on property prices/market. (I wonder if anything ever happened to the estate agent and finance advisor who were in cahoots to deliberately get people to pat the maximum their mortgage company would lend them rather than what they should/could have paid?)

That plus people's desire to drive the biggest and latest 4 x 4 and watch a 187" mega TV.


Easy to blame the government and they should shoulder a lot of the blame, but people's greed and materialism needs to be taken into consideration as well.

Where the government gets a cop out, is that they can't control consumer spending because it has no control over interest rates. Maybe the Euro was not so good after all.

Tea drinker

dresden8 wrote: »

Surely not! Has Inda not electrified the opposition? Electrocuted more like.
Still, "the opposition never stopped us" is no excuse for a piss poor incompetent government.

]
Yeah, he beat the heart of it!

Look forward to some industrial or should I say public sector unrest. We can't afford to pay them such high dole money anymore.

DadaKopf

Tea drinker wrote: »

]
Yeah, he beat the heart of it!

Look forward to some industrial or should I say public sector unrest. We can't afford to pay them such high dole money anymore.

It's private sector workers who are much more vulnerable. And they form the majority of trade union membership.

I know the 'recession' is the result of many factors, but I think the biggest factor is the government's policy decisions over the past 10 years. Instead of channelling new wealth into encouraging indigenous innovation, entrepreneurship and export-oriented market diversification, the government encouraged the construction and property speculation boom and unproductive financial sector. This had the effect of crowding out innovation, entrepreneurship and innovation which would otherwise have positioned us nicely to generate and hold on to our own wealth.

Added to this is the chronic underinvestment (relative to our OECD neighbours) in public services and infrastructure. Our boom was the result of the IDA and free education, but it only got us so far. To keep Ireland attractive to investors, the government should have completed building other public services including transport, health, telecommunications, childcare. International evidence proves that this is the only way to combine social development with foreign and domestic investment in the real economy. Corporations don't stay here for the low tax rate for any other reason than the government let Ireland become a tax haven and goldmine for builders and property fatsos.

And now we're left with a 15 year lead-time to get even a pinch of what services and infrastructure we should have had by now.

This said, we're still in a better position now than we were in the 1980s.

Fr0g

the_syco wrote: »

FG for doing f**k all. Criticize FF all you want, but that's easy to do. Give an alternative, that's hard. That requires work.

So by your logic if you murder someone it is the fault of the onlookers for not stopping you?

Only a third of the electorate voted for FF, two thirds voted for the alternative but we all suffer (except the cronies who hand out the brown envelopes).

I'm not saying the alternative would have done a better job but they couldn't have done any worse either

Saying that one party is better than another is BS IMO take a close look they are not our brightest and best are they?

Anything would have been better than an unqualified, uneducated, illiterate gombeen at the helm.

Fr0g

"A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves. (B. de Jouvenel)"

stepbar

brianthebard wrote: »

i plan to go back to uni for the next 4 or 5 years then emigrate if things haven't picked up...what are ye going to do?

Good for you. I hope it works out. What am I going to do? Stay and ride it out. With a decent pension and share options (or lack of them), my personal economy will be just fine. So I suppose I'll just bend over and take it up the ass until 2012.

eigrod

at least the FF'ers will be able to explain to the builders the reasons behind the downturn and what they are going to do to turn it around in their tent at the Galway races later in the Summer.

oh, hold on..............

the_syco

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Where the government gets a cop out, is that they can't control consumer spending because it has no control over interest rates. Maybe the Euro was not so good after all.

A few people are now saying that if everyone stops spends, the recession will turn into a depression. Odd that.

Pride Fighter

DadaKopf wrote: »

It's private sector workers who are much more vulnerable. And they form the majority of trade union membership.

I know the 'recession' is the result of many factors, but I think the biggest factor is the government's policy decisions over the past 10 years. Instead of channelling new wealth into encouraging indigenous innovation, entrepreneurship and export-oriented market diversification, the government encouraged the construction and property speculation boom and unproductive financial sector. This had the effect of crowding out innovation, entrepreneurship and innovation which would otherwise have positioned us nicely to generate and hold on to our own wealth.

Added to this is the chronic underinvestment (relative to our OECD neighbours) in public services and infrastructure. Our boom was the result of the IDA and free education, but it only got us so far. To keep Ireland attractive to investors, the government should have completed building other public services including transport, health, telecommunications, childcare. International evidence proves that this is the only way to combine social development with foreign and domestic investment in the real economy. Corporations don't stay here for the low tax rate for any other reason than the government let Ireland become a tax haven and goldmine for builders and property fatsos.

And now we're left with a 15 year lead-time to get even a pinch of what services and infrastructure we should have had by now.

This said, we're still in a better position now than we were in the 1980s.

I agree, I remember at the time of the last general election people were saying we never had it so good etc.. I knew that the economy was stalling as exports were stagnant the last few years and indigenous enterprise was seen as a no-no, foreign direct investment will only take us so far.

djpbarry

the_syco wrote: »

The builders for charging so much for the houses in the first place.

Don't forget the muppets who paid way over the odds for houses with walls so thin they could watch their neighbours' TV.

brianthebard wrote: »

i plan to go back to uni for the next 4 or 5 years then emigrate if things haven't picked up...what are ye going to do?

Same here; I'll (hopefully) be finished my postgrad next year and will probably head off to the UK with the missus. But that has little to do with the current economic situation; recession or no recession, there's F-all R&D in this country.

Dave! wrote: »

I'm just gonna kill myself and get it over with!

Oh, actually, that is tempting. Suicide pact anyone?

dresden8

djpbarry wrote: »

Oh, actually, that is tempting. Suicide pact anyone?

No claiming that idea for your own now.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0704/economy.html

Tea drinker

Pride Fighter wrote: »

I agree, I remember at the time of the last general election people were saying we never had it so good etc.. I knew that the economy was stalling as exports were stagnant the last few years and indigenous enterprise was seen as a no-no, foreign direct investment will only take us so far.

Yes, the last election, around the time of the suicide statement from our ex-taoiseach. All that "NO DEFEATIST PROPAGANDA" spewed forth by our independant meeja. Of course now, post Lisbon they are clamouring over themselves to print the "WE'RE ALL COMPLETELY FOOKED" headlines.
The herd of independant minds.


Myself and missus are thinking of hitting the road, both of us are permies but wage erosion / inflation makes it hard to progress here.
In 2 - 4 years there may be a pickup here would like to get 2 years abroad and see if I want to come back then.

K-9

dresden8 wrote:

More than ten years of boom and all the EU money we could stick into our pockets.

How much EU money in the last 10 years?

stepbar wrote:

And FF for allowing it to happen...........

Lets face it, we had the best alternative in 10 odd years and the voting public turned their nose up at it.

I know muppets, don't know what's good for them. Look at no to Lisbon! Twats!

nesf wrote:

We ran surpluses during the boom times instead of spending it all (i.e. the right thing to do) which means we can run deficits during the bad. Things aren't that bad, 7% unemployment is being predicted and being fretted over, two decades ago if you offered people single digit unemployment they'd have jumped at it, etc.

Good factual post. If the opposition had their way we wouldn't have the lowest borrowing in Europe, no pension funds, more public sector pay etc. etc.

fratton fred wrote:

Easy to blame the government and they should shoulder a lot of the blame, but people's greed and materialism needs to be taken into consideration as well.

Well said. Easy to blame Govt., builders, banks etc. No minister, developer or Bank Manager had the arm behind the back and a team of heavies telling us to sign on the dotted line!
.

fratton fred wrote:

Where the government gets a cop out, is that they can't control consumer spending because it has no control over interest rates. Maybe the Euro was not so good after all.

You mean like the USA did? The banks aren't lending full stop, if there was 0% rates they still wouldn't lend. Bad debts and the sub prime crisis are the worry for them, not FTB's or small business.

Any increases in disposable income from rate cuts will be swallowed up in more oil and food price increases.

Look at Icelands economy, f***ed!

Dadakopf wrote:

Added to this is the chronic underinvestment (relative to our OECD neighbours) in public services and infrastructure.

Agreed, maybe we'll all pay the rates of French and German tax and PRSI.

FR0G wrote:

Only a third of the electorate voted for FF, two thirds voted for the alternative but we all suffer

Source?

the tea drinker wrote:

Myself and missus are thinking of hitting the road, both of us are permies but wage erosion / inflation makes it hard to progress here.
In 2 - 4 years there may be a pickup here would like to get 2 years abroad and see if I want to come back then.

Where's this magical location free from the worldwide downturn?

is_that_so

The last time we had anything close to this level of unemployment was 10 years ago. Remember also that politically 5% , in the western world at least, is considered full employment.

So I would suggest that most people wouldn't know what a recession was even if we were in the middle of one. Nevertheless I can see some using it as an excuse to head off for a few years. And good luck to them.

Even in the famed misery of the 1980s there was a great opportunity to get away and some people made that decision based on where friends/family or Irish people lived. Some parts of The States or the UK were no different to being at home.

Like many topics in Ireland these days we talk so much about them that we end up indulging in what if scenarios till we are in the realms of absolute impossibility.

Many of the perceived problems with this recession are our own life expectations and the bloody economists. Not denying that they are right but object to them sucking the air out of the room every time they open their mouths. Even when they are being positive they still sound like undertakers.

As to what will happen, well I see cuts. Some of them won't be seen in that it'll just be money unspent. I suspect that infrastructure may be allowed to slow down or even stop. And worst of all we may even get a tax rate increase.

But no-one will die, we'll cut our cloth as they say and life will go on. We may even learn that Eddie Hobbes is not a complete prat and that budgeting without a credit card makes sense.

Some industries will be hit harder than others like construction. But common sense can prevail and we can get out the other end, chastened but more grounded in reality. Much of this I think depends on the social partners and whether they actually want to be partners. The posturing going on at present does not help. In my view the 6.5% inflation rate touted by the unions as a negotiating position is no better than our gloomy economists. It is also utterly selfish and just feeds the fire, by encouraging higher demands.

I also hope that it clear out some of those other evils of the Celtic Tiger - Superpubs, toilet attendants, overpriced third-rate restaurants and coffee shops. It may even remind people that you don't just vote for FF because Brian Cowen said you couldn't trust the other lot to do it properly.

SimpleSam06

brianthebard wrote: »

i plan to go back to uni for the next 4 or 5 years then emigrate if things haven't picked up...what are ye going to do?

I'm looking into getting involved in the political process myself, not directly but in selecting candidates who I think represent the best options for the country, and putting some weight behind them.

There really is nowhere left to run, not that I'd want to.

leninbenjamin wrote: »

instead of looking for who to blame we should be looking for how we can get the ball rolling again. but that would require constructive thinking...

Some very good points there, but on this one I feel that a few object lessons should be made as a reminder who exactly is in charge of this country.

DadaKopf wrote: »

I know the 'recession' is the result of many factors, but I think the biggest factor is the government's policy decisions over the past 10 years.

Excellent post.

Hotblack Desiato

is_that_so wrote: »

The posturing going on at present does not help.

That goes for both IBEC and ICTU. Their insistence on a pay freeze is every bit as ridiculous as asking for 6.5%.

In my view the 6.5% inflation rate touted by the unions as a negotiating position is no better than our gloomy economists. It is also utterly selfish and just feeds the fire, by encouraging higher demands.

6.5% inflation is certainly possible, depending on oil and other external factors. At least the collapse in consumer confidence will reduce price pressures domestically, but we're one of the most exposed countries in Europe, if not the world, to oil shocks. Pity Carnsore Point was never built...

I also hope that it clear out some of those other evils of the Celtic Tiger - Superpubs, toilet attendants, overpriced third-rate restaurants and coffee shops.

Hear hear.

It may even remind people that you don't just vote for FF because Brian Cowen said you couldn't trust the other lot to do it properly.

Can you credit the electorate with some intelligence please, people are capable of making up their own minds. This argument has been made a lot since the Lisbon campaign, people only voted a certain way because some politician asked them to, in almost all cases it's nonsense. The opposition ran a poor campaign and Enda is not going to win urban eastern votes when he's off playing the rural conservative card. They should look to improve their game rather than blame the referee, so as to speak.

Fr0g

Seanies32 wrote: »

Fr0g wrote: »

Only a third of the electorate voted for FF, two thirds voted for the alternative but we all suffer

Source?

Figures are here: http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/Election2007.php

Total Electorate: 3,110,914

FF Votes: 858,565

27.6% of the electorate

is_that_so

ninja900 wrote: »

That goes for both IBEC and ICTU. Their insistence on a pay freeze is every bit as ridiculous as asking for 6.5%.

Absolutely , not exclusive, hence my point about real partnership

ninja900 wrote: »

6.5% inflation is certainly possible, depending on oil and other external factors. At least the collapse in consumer confidence will reduce price pressures domestically, but we're one of the most exposed countries in Europe, if not the world, to oil shocks. Pity Carnsore Point was never built...

No argument here either but I have problems with it used as a bargaining position especially by organisations who represent a minority(500K or so)

ninja900 wrote: »

Can you credit the electorate with some intelligence please, people are capable of making up their own minds. This argument has been made a lot since the Lisbon campaign, people only voted a certain way because some politician asked them to, in almost all cases it's nonsense. The opposition ran a poor campaign and Enda is not going to win urban eastern votes when he's off playing the rural conservative card. They should look to improve their game rather than blame the referee, so as to speak.

I am not sure about first one seeing as a lot of that decision was made in an environment of fear i.e. "imagine the damage FG/Labour/dolly mixture could cause". As a voting population we have tended to chase our pocket first, which is probably why we loved Bertie and his lack of attendant principles. He never attempted to appeal to our better parts. I also believe we get the government we deserve and best represents us as a people.

I agree 100% on the so-called alternative government. They ran a dismal campaign and failed to take full advantage of the momentum they had originally picked up.

Paradoxically the opposition has more people who have genuine experience of the mess we find ourselves in.


Incidentally RTE will be covering the debate and press conference live today from 2.30.
http://www.rte.ie/live/

ejmaztec

I think that it must have dawned on Brian Cowan by now, that the reason for no-one else fighting him for the top job was because they all knew that it was going pear-shaped and that he would be the right man to carry the large can. Judging by the polls, he now seems to have full-blown Gordon Brown Syndrome.