Le Tour (with new added Poll!)

Raam

Prediction time. I'm going to go with Valverde. He won the Dauphine Libere and is a good all rounder. I was going to go with Cadel Evans, but I think it will be a European again, so Valverde it is. Anyone else?

drogdub

I am not going to make any predictions as I haven't a clue. Have only got back into cycling in the last few months, but have spent the last few months on youtube looking at old Le Tour vids, so I can't wait for this years. I know TG4 are showing it, but which of the UK channels are showing it too, so I can follow it in english. question marks or no this is my favourite, when I see it I want to get on my bike http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=GHJErrp4eOw

Chips Lovell

Cunego

Evans or Menchov for me.

While Valverde looks like a strong prospect, I'd still be in the camp that says he's really a classics rider. Sure he won the Dauphine, but he's never looked that strong in a three week race. Even in the Dauphine, he looked vulnerable on the big mountains and a few extra days would have seen the others tear him to pieces I think. In days of old, a guy like Valverde could have minimised his weaknesses by, ummm, 'preparing' well for the Tour. I don't think there's the scope for that any more, at least I hope not.

Evans meanwhile came close last year and appears to be a different man this season. I think he's realised that he can actually win the thing and has a new sense of confidence in him. I thought I was seeing things when he actually attacked in the Dauphine.

Menchov is the one to look out for. Like Evans he's a great time triallist who can hang with the climbers on the high mountains. He did a very strong Giro considering the TDF is his main goal this year. It's also easy to forget that he's already got two Vueltas under his belt.

I like Cunego, but as with Valverde, I think he's best as a one day rider. He's got a weak TT, which he's improved a bit but is still a bit away from some of the others. He always seems to struggle a bit on the big mountains too. He's perpetually the guy trying to get back on to the two or three out front. Sure he's got a Giro under his belt, but came out of nowhere on that one and hasn't looked like a real contender since.

I don't think Sastre will ever win a grand tour. He's a lovely climber, but doesn't seem to have the mental toughness to take it. A terrible TT will always play against him to. Frank Schleck isn't the best stage racer, but you can always bet on him for a stage. The brother Andy is still a bit of a mystery to me. He did a great Giro last year but has only shown flashes of form since.

Of the outsider bets, I'm really looking forward to seeing Samuel Sanchez. The Tour is his main objective this year. He's a pretty decent time triallist and is also a master of that rare art, the downhill attack, which is exhilarating to watch.

Ricco has just surprisingly announced that he'll ride the Tour. He said he's just going for stages, but he might be sandbagging a bit, since he joked that he's put the same preparation in as Contador did for the Giro, i.e. lying on the beach.

Lance Armstrong recently picked Devolder as a future Tour winner. He's probably got it in him alright, but tactically he's a total idiot. He did it again in the Tour de Suisse. Insane attacks way too early in a stage. He also did an appalling mountain time trial and I'm wondering if that might affect his morale.

Green jersey competition will be very interesting. Cavendish proved at the Giro that he's mature enough now to last a grand tour. Bennati looks like he may have injury problems and McEwen may be getting on a bit. I think you'll see a lot of guys going all out for this as there's no big favourite this year, which should make the flat stages a lot of fun. There's been a lot of talk about how clean the peloton is these days and I began to notice it at the Dauphine. The sprinters teams seem to be having a much harder time controlling the race near the finish and there seems to be more scope for late breaks. Hincapie's win was a case in point.

Raam

Evans

Good post El Tonto. You know more about this game than most of us put together.

el tonto wrote: »

I thought I was seeing things when he [Evans] actually attacked in the Dauphine.

That is one reason why I decided not to go for Evans, I'm not a fan of his style.

Chips Lovell

Cunego

Raam wrote: »

I'm not a fan of his style.

Not everyone can climb like you!

TinyExplosions

Cunego

el tonto wrote: »

Not everyone can climb like you!

Edited for accuracy

Raam

Evans

I hear that Contador chap is OK at climbing. Pity he's never around Wicklow, so I'll never know if I could beat him.

Raam

Evans

Looks like Cadel Evans is the people's favourite.

Frank Schleck has 3 votes. Personally, I think he hasn't a snowball's.

For green, I would have picked McEwan, but presumably the team will be working for Evans instead. I don't think Cav will get it. Maybe Benatti?

blorg

Cunego

Raam wrote: »

I hear that Contador chap is OK at climbing. Pity he's never around Wicklow, so I'll never know if I could beat him.

Pity he's not in the TdF either, or I'd have voted for him Seriously though, it is a pity, although it would be nice to see Evans win- but without Contador? Is that really a win?

Brian?

Evans

I hate to think that Cadel Evans will win this years Tour, but I think he will.

I reckon if it wasn't for all the politicking around Astana, I think Contador would be an absolute shoe in again.

Last years Tour was brilliant in the Mountains until all the Rasmussen bidness reared its ugly head. Its a long time since I remember seeing two riders go at it in the mountains like that, a joy to behold.

I agree with a lot of what El Tonto said.

Evans and Menchov are have great TT's, can climb but are not great.

Valverde is too prone to cracking and losing 5-10minutes in one stage. Can't remember exactly what stage last year , but I remember being annoyed at seeing Oscar Pereiro ordered back to help Valverde.


Sastre and Cunego, I just don't think they have a grand tour win in them.

Evans it is then as there aren't enough big days in the Alps for the climbers to completly take him out.

I will also predict Juan Mauricio Soler-Hernandez to win Alpe d’Huez, if for no other reason than that he has the best name in cycling


There's 2c from someone who has watched every Tour for the last 25 years but never posts in here.

ventoux

Frank Schleck

Hi there,
I'll add my 2pence worth and go for Cunego as he started the season well and then stayed low for a while.Idid nt see the tour of swiss but I hope he was keeping his cards close to his chest.I dont think Valverde is a tour man as he goes missing at some stage.I like Menchov and he could be worth an each way bet.Evans will also be in the shake up.

Very good post by EL tonto.


I'm heading to france on tues but wont see the tour as I'm heading for a day of torture on the Marmotte.All the training is done and i had a good Wicklow going around in 7.10 so fingers crossed.

Raam

Evans

ventoux wrote: »

I'm heading for a day of torture on the Marmotte.All the training is done and i had a good Wicklow going around in 7.10 so fingers crossed.

Best of luck Andy. Will you give us a report when you get back?

ventoux

Frank Schleck

Raam wrote: »

Best of luck Andy. Will you give us a report when you get back?

Cheers P
I hope to put something together when i get back and get someone to help to post it as Im alot handier with a hammer and saw that with a computer.

Raam

Evans

http://www.bikeradar.com/news/article/cadel-evans-given-tours-number-1-bib-17278?CPN=RSS&SOURCE=BRGENNEWS

Australian rider Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto), has been handed the top bib of number one, traditionally reserved for the winner of previous year's Tour de France or his team, organisers said Monday.

Evans, runner-up in the 2007 Tour, has benefited from the absence of last year's winner Alberto Contador of Spain and the dissolution of his Discovery Channel team. Contador's current team, Astana, was not invited to the 2008 Tour due to Astana's two consecutive Tours of controversy and doping, beginning with the Operation Puerto debacle of 2006 and team leader Alexander Vinokourov's blood doping offence during the 2007 Tour.

Last year, for the first time in the race's history, the top bib number started at 11, as organisers decided to leave out 1-10 owing to American Floyd Landis's absence from the race as he awaited an arbitration decision.

Diarmuid

Cunego

blorg wrote: »

Pity he's not in the TdF either, or I'd have voted for him Seriously though, it is a pity, although it would be nice to see Evans win- but without Contador? Is that really a win?

I know "innocent until prove guilty", but I'm from the Paul Kimmage school of thought and there are way too many question marks over Contador. David Walsh is pretty convinced of his guilt too. ASO were right to not invite him.

blorg

Cunego

ASO were pretty clear that it was the team, not Contador. You have to have a strong anti-doping programme but one that convicts on test results rather than conjecture, allegations and possible associations. I'm guessing you are in the "Armstrong doped" camp Diarmuid ?

Chips Lovell

Cunego

Diarmuid wrote: »

I know "innocent until prove guilty", but I'm from the Paul Kimmage school of thought and there are way too many question marks over Contador. David Walsh is pretty convinced of his guilt too. ASO were right to not invite him.

ASO didn't invite Astana because of their track record over the past two years and not because of Contador. Having said that, his name was on the Puerto lists and he's one of several riders who got away without an investigation over it.

Diarmuid

Cunego

blorg wrote: »

ASO were pretty clear that it was the team, not Contador.

Well they didn't invite them because of the teams links to Operation Puerto. However if you look at the riders implicated in Puerto and compared it to the Astana team sheet, only 2 riders (out of 30ish) are in both, Serrano and Contador. It seems pretty clear to me what ASO was inferring.

blorg wrote: »

You have to have a strong anti-doping programme but one that convicts on test results rather than conjecture, allegations and possible associations.

But when it is impossible detect the drug (EPO) directly you have to resort to circumstantial evidence. It's not nice and I wouldn't apply this to a court of law but if I was running a race that I wanted to clean up, then I would have done what ASO did. (BTW I disagreed with Bonnen's coke ban)

blorg wrote: »

I'm guessing you are in the "Armstrong doped" camp Diarmuid ?

Yes. I don't really care if he did but I think Lance's defence of Landis and attack on LeMond cemented my belief.

Chips Lovell

Cunego

Diarmuid wrote: »

Well they didn't invite them because of the teams links to Operation Puerto. However if you look at the riders implicated in Puerto and compared it to the Astana team sheet, only 2 riders (out of 30ish) are in both, Serrano and Contador. It seems pretty clear to me what ASO was inferring.

Yep, there was Puerto, but also the Astana shambles of last year of Vino, Kashechkin, Kessler and Mazzoleni all getting done.

Diarmuid

Cunego

el tonto wrote: »

Yep, there was Puerto, but also the Astana shambles of last year of Vino, Kashechkin, Kessler and Mazzoleni all getting done.

They were all fired ("left"), as was their management. The only thing they had in common with Astana of 2006/2007 was the name (and Contador/Serrano). If the ASO really believed that the defending champion of the TdF and Paris-Nice was clean, the clean-out Astana did of the team would be ample excuse to allow them in, but no ASO still kicked them out. The implication seems pretty clear.

Do people here believe Contador is clean?

Raam

Evans

Diarmuid wrote: »

Do people here believe Contador is clean?

As clean as the rest of them.

Chips Lovell

Cunego

Diarmuid wrote: »

They were all fired ("left"), as was their management. The only thing they had in common with Astana of 2006/2007 was the name (and Contador/Serrano). If the ASO really believed that the defending champion of the TdF and Paris-Nice was clean, the clean-out Astana did of the team would be ample excuse to allow them in, but no ASO still kicked them out. The implication seems pretty clear.

Do people here believe Contador is clean?

I'm actually not disagreeing with you that Contador was up to his neck in Puerto, just that this wasn't the reason Astana wasn't invited. As Prudhomme pointed out, Astana had a big clean out the previous year and still managed to disgrace themselves in last year's tour. I also think he may have a bit of a beef with Brunyeel as well. However, every interview I've seen with Pruhomme about this, he's been kissing Contador's ass. He even said that if Contador ditched Astana and found another team, he could take part.

kincsem

Frank Schleck

Cunego at 14/1 on Betfair for me.
I backed Oscar Pereiro Sio at 180/1 the year he "won", but the payout was on the podium result. I sold a bit of it for €1,800 three days before Paris, but Landis cost me €12k. :mad:

Diarmuid

Cunego

Raam wrote: »

As clean as the rest of them.

I was hoping for a yes/no answer.

ASO and UCI after too many years of hand over their ears are seriously trying to clean it up (I'd imagine after seeing the impact on the bottom line of all the scandals.) They need to swing the axe hard if they want to clean the TdF. Surely your enjoyment of the achievements of the riders is impacted if you are suspicious of every second rider?

However, every interview I've seen with Pruhomme about this, he's been kissing Contador's ass. He even said that if Contador ditched Astana and found another team, he could take part.

Ok fair enough. Doesn't change my suspicions of him.

Chips Lovell

Cunego

Diarmuid wrote: »

Ok fair enough. Doesn't change my suspicions of him.

Nor should it. I'm guessing at this stage that ASO sees Puerto as closed and wants to move on. I still find it weird though that they want to cozy up to him.

thereturn

Evans

Hi there. Glad to find a forum where this years tour is being discussed. Fascinating race this year with a wide open race where there are many contenders. My top five are as follows:
1. Valverde (4/1)
2. Evans (5/2)
3. Ricco (33/1)
4. Kreuziger (33/1)
5. Kirchen (50/1)
I think Valverde will win it as he is in such good form this year. He can climb well and his time trialing ability appears to have improved. He won the Spanish National Championship as recently as this weekend. Big worry is the transfer of form to a three week race as others have said.
Evans is a good all round rider though I think the lack of time trial km's will count against him. He doesn't have that explosive power so will struggle if he has one bad day.
I watched the Giro this year and Ricco came very close to beating Contador. He was the best climber in the race. Big questions for me are will he be able to last the three weeks with the pace of Le Tour and how will his form compare to that of the Giro. Overpriced at 33/1 for me though.
I don't know all that much about Kreuziger or Kirchen but both appear to be in good form. Kirchen in particular had a good tour of Switzerland and with Rogers out he doesn't have to ride for anyone. Columbia appear to be one of the cleaner teams though so he may be at a disadvantage compared to the more dubious riders in the race (Valverde for one).
Kreuziger looks like a rider who is improving and can time trial.

Raam

Evans

Diarmuid wrote: »

I was hoping for a yes/no answer.

There isn't really a yes/no answer for me because I've no idea what Contador was up to, same as the rest of us. All we have is some "link" to Puerto.

Diarmuid wrote: »

ASO and UCI after too many years of hand over their ears are seriously trying to clean it up (I'd imagine after seeing the impact on the bottom line of all the scandals.) They need to swing the axe hard if they want to clean the TdF.

Agreed.

Diarmuid wrote: »

Surely your enjoyment of the achievements of the riders is impacted if you are suspicious of every second rider?

I know the sport is hard (based on my limited exposure) so I can appreciate why some were driven to doping. As a spectacle, it doesn't change it for me. Anyway, I'm not suspicious of anyone. I just know that human nature is to get any advantage that you can get away wth.

Diarmuid

Cunego

Raam wrote: »

There isn't really a yes/no answer for me because I've no idea what Contador was up to, same as the rest of us. All we have is some "link" to Puerto.

Unless we get pictures of him with a syringe in his arm/arse we won't know (if EPO is administrated well, it's not testable) However, based on lots of other evidence you can increase your confidence of a yes/no.

Anyway, I'm not suspicious of anyone. I just know that human nature is to get any advantage that you can get away wth.

I don't agree. If you thought that you could puncture your nearest competitor and get away with it, would you do it do win? I don't believe most would.

Of course when it's your profession the waters are muddied even further, but I think if the race organisers put in a serious attempt to clamp down on doping then it will give most honest pros an opportunity to go clean. Then you can really nail the cheats. And this is why I like Contador not being invited to this years TdF.

Raam

Evans

Diarmuid wrote: »

Unless we get pictures of him with a syringe in his arm/arse we won't know (if EPO is administrated well, it's not testable) However, based on lots of other evidence you can increase your confidence of a yes/no.

What else have we got?

Diarmuid wrote: »

I don't agree. If you thought that you could puncture your nearest competitor and get away with it, would you do it do win? I don't believe most would.

I didn't mean to include deliberately sabotaging other people in that sentiment. I'm only talking about performance enhancing.

Diarmuid wrote: »

Of course when it's your profession the waters are muddied even further, but I think if the race organisers put in a serious attempt to clamp down on doping then it will give most honest pros an opportunity to go clean. Then you can really nail the cheats. And this is why I like Contador not being invited to this years TdF.

I'd love if the sport was clean, but I try not to let to doping incidents get to me. Having said that, I was so disappointed with Vino, I really liked him.

TinyExplosions

Cunego

Just to throw in my two cents on this (oh dear...), I agree with a lot of what's been said on both sides, but the main thing I keep getting back to is how Cycling always seems to be singled out for having a doping issue. Even the fact that Operation Puerto only named 34 people out of 200 should show that doping is far more widespread. Major League Baseball and Athletics to name two other sports have problems with it, and to be frank, I expect the Premiership has it's fair share.

I think that any sport where winning equals cash includes the temptation to enhance your performance is there, and some people are tempted.

I personally don't think Contador doped, and to my mind at least, I don't think Armstrong ever did, but I do agree with ASO banning Astana to make the point crystal clear (as well as not liking Bruyneel)

Diarmuid

Cunego

TinyExplosions wrote: »

I personally don't think Contador doped, and to my mind at least, I don't think Armstrong ever did, but I do agree with ASO banning Astana to make the point crystal clear (as well as not liking Bruyneel)

Maybe too much Rough Ride and fallen stars have made me too cynical.

Anyways to drag this back on topic, PaddyPower have Evans the favourite at 2-1. Pretty crap odds considering it's an open TdF

niceonetom

Cunego

a lot of us around here have read Mr. Kimmage's book, but i don't think that all of us have come away with identical attitudes. strangely it actually softened my attitude towards dopers (but not doping itself). i've accepted that it is nearly certain that all of the greats doped, and that it's a very very long time since anyone won the tour completely untainted. but i don't necessarily consider doping to be outright cheating (bare with me!) if their competition is up to the same. it's a level playing field, though the grass may be astroturf, if you get me.

i would greatly prefer if the sport was completely clean but i completely disagree with operating under the premise that suspicion is enough to condemn. there are no successful riders that are above suspicion and allegation since, to many cynics out there, success itself is enough evidence of "cheating".

even in the current draconian baby-and-bathwater climate, how many of you have any confidence that the tour will be completed without another high-profile bust?

it's a thorny one, and there's no magic solution but arbitrary and ad-hoc rule making won't solve much, just make the tour look even sillier when the next scandal breaks.

Diarmuid

Cunego

i've accepted that it is nearly certain that all of the greats doped, and that it's a very very long time since anyone won the tour completely untainted. but i don't necessarily consider doping to be outright cheating (bare with me!) if their competition is up to the same

I think LeMond was clean. And with regards to your second point, doesn't that make it a competition between the team doctors then?

niceonetom wrote: »

even in the current draconian baby-and-bathwater climate, how many of you have any confidence that the tour will be completed without another high-profile bust?

I won't be holding my breath.

Chips Lovell

Cunego

TinyExplosions wrote: »

I personally don't think Contador doped

One of the documents (Document 31) that were leaked from Puerto had a doping plan for Liberty Seguros. Contador was put down to either get nothing or the same as Jorg Jaschke, who has since confessed he was doped up to the gills at Liberty Seguros.

Contador's never been grilled on this and probably never will, since the judicial investigation has been closed down, because doping wasn't a crime in Spain at the time and the judge has said he won't hand over all the evidence to private bodies, such as cycling federations. The Spanish Cycling Federation has expressed no interest at all in investigating the matter further, which is why he, Valverde and all the others lucky enough not to get named after the initial sting will probably never have to worry about Puerto again.

TinyExplosions wrote: »

and to my mind at least, I don't think Armstrong ever did

His samples from 1999 tested positive retrospectively for EPO. Not good enough for a suspension or stripping him of the title, but still pretty damning. Read David Walsh's last book, "From Lance to Landis".

niceonetom wrote: »

i don't necessarily consider doping to be outright cheating (bare with me!) if their competition is up to the same. it's a level playing field, though the grass may be astroturf, if you get me.

Everyone doping doesn't necessarily level the playing field. Some people respond better to it than others. For example, guys with a naturally lower haemocrit will benefit most from EPO. You also have to consider that some riders would be willing to take bigger risks than others. For example, Riis was alleged to have a haemocrit of 60% when he won the Tour. There aren't many guys who'd be willing to risk that. Then you've got to consider the guys (few of them admittedly) who've never touched anything. You've got Moncoutie, who famously won't even take as much as vitamin supplements. Or before him there was Bassons, the only guy on Festina who didn't want anything to do with it.

That doesn't mean that I don't enjoy cycling. You just have to suspend your disbelief a little when you turn on the TV. It's harder to do that though when you know well what some people are up to.

I remember reading an interview with Luis Herrara, who recalled the introduction of EPO to the peloton. All of a sudden, he said, guys with fat arses were going past him like aeroplanes on climbs. It's moments like that when I stop enjoying a race and they still happen from time to time. I'm thinking of one Italian with a very fat arse for example who did implausibly well in last year's Giro, but has since been suspended. Or a few mountain stages in last year's Tour that had one or two contenders "ascending into heaven like a shot off a shovel".

Diarmuid

Cunego

el tonto wrote: »

I remember reading an interview with Luis Herrara, who recalled the introduction of EPO to the peloton. All of a sudden, he said, guys with fat arses were going past him like aeroplanes on climbs

Robert Millar said something similar to (then just retired) Pascal Simon in 92 about the widespread use of EPO. "guys climbing the mountains with calf muscles like body-builders. They ride with their mouths shut because then don't even have to breathe, and they're riding twice as fast as us"

Guess who is reading a book about Robert Millar :-)

Funkyzeit

Evans

Valverde is my choice - don't understand why Evans is the fav after Valv comfortably beat him in the D-L. - sure Valverde is not a pure climber but route doesn't look too tough...(NOTE: for them....) this year.

As for Cav winning the Green - I thought he's only cycling the week and then going into Olympic training mode?

Diarmuid

Cunego

Funkyzeit wrote: »

Valverde is my choice - don't understand why Evans is the fav after Valv comfortably beat him in the D-L. -

Well they are very close (on PaddyPower) and after Evans getting the Number 1 bib maybe the betting on him might be a bit higher.

Chips Lovell

Cunego

Funkyzeit wrote: »

don't understand why Evans is the fav after Valv comfortably beat him in the D-L

The Dauphine is a training race for these guys. For someone like Evans or Valverde, winning it is less important than honing their form. Remember, Evans came in comfortably ahead of Contador in last year's Dauphine and look what happened.

Funkyzeit

Evans

agree you can't measure D-L performance - Valverde though looked SOO comfortable

Also IMO I just think Evans might struggle to make up potential times lost to Valv in the TT's?

Chips Lovell

Cunego

Funkyzeit wrote: »

Valverde though looked SOO comfortable

I thought he looked vulernable. I though Evans and Leipheimer scared the bejesus out of him on the stage to La Toussuire with their attacks and neither would be reknowned for doing that. On a tougher stage he would have been in serious trouble.

Funkyzeit wrote: »

Also IMO I just think Evans might struggle to make up potential times lost to Valv in the TT's?

Evans is very strong TT rider in my opinion and most people would think he'd have the edge on Valverde here.

Then again, what do I know. I don't think I've called a race right yet this year.

thereturn

Evans

The tour is being shown live on weekdays on ITV4 by pressing red button on the channel. I have ITV4 as part of my other channels on Sky but there is no red button option on it. Though I have Eurosport and TG4 Ligget and Sherwan are commentating for ITV4 and would like to have it if possible. Anyone have any ideas if there is anyway of getting interactive service through ITV 4?

Funkyzeit

Evans

el tonto wrote: »

Then again, what do I know. I don't think I've called a race right yet this year.

Me neither...:( but there always a first for everything...

antomagoo

Cunego

anyone signed up to the "fantasy tour de france" on eurosports website?

http://fantasy.tour-de-france.eurosport.com/default.aspx

might be bit of a laugh to get a mini league going. (read as: I dont know anyone else who would be intrested so just seeing if any boards.ie members would be)

opps just seen a post already for this sorry!!!

Treade

So 0% of us got it right!!!

ob

Menchov

The poll is still open. I have a feeling that percentage will start to grow!

Funkyzeit

Evans

ob wrote: »

The poll is still open. I have a feeling that percentage will start to grow!

always knew he was going to win....:o