Lisbon "yes": apparently - quite reliable

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

Apparently the yes vote won!

Two reasons (but they are good ones):

1) two well-connected FF poster on politics.ie says their internal polls suggest a result 5-7% in favour

http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?f=172&t=36925&p=1213315&hilit=Politics.ie#p1213315

2) the betfair odds on a yes vote have reduced quite dramatically since this evening. Ultimately the money talks on this one.


btw mods, if you are sick-and-tired of lisbon threads, please feel free to delete this one. Just thought it was interesting.

PrivateEye

I dont know.

*Roscommon/Monaghan protest votes.
*High turnout in SOME Working Class areas (Walkinstown was flying today)
*A good turnout in some 'fishing areas' down south apparently
*and I still think the majority of the farmers will vote no.

I think No will win by 3 or 4 %

ruskin

"It ain't over 'til its over"

Come on NO

EamonnKeane

ruskin wrote: »

"It ain't over 'til its over"

But Rocky still loses...

leninbenjamin

on a day like to today everyone's a winner... :pac:

turnout seemed pretty high, at least it was in my area.

Glenbhoy

Roundtower2 wrote: »

Apparently the yes vote won!

Two reasons (but they are good ones):

1) two well-connected FF poster on politics.ie says their internal polls suggest a result 5-7% in favour

http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?f=172&t=36925&p=1213315&hilit=Politics.ie#p1213315

2) the betfair odds on a yes vote have reduced quite dramatically since this evening. Ultimately the money talks on this one.


btw mods, if you are sick-and-tired of lisbon threads, please feel free to delete this one. Just thought it was interesting.

The betting on betfair means nothing tbh, it's essentially blind punters having a go - no exit polls were carried out.
Those 2 posters pretend to be well connected, that doesn't mean to say.

I'm not saying you're wrong btw, just that neither reason convinces me, especially the betfair one. Having a substantial amount riding on this in that market I've been monitoring it all day and it's been all over the place. It has settled at its current 1.3 odd because the turnout suggests that 'yes' might be carried, yes was backed at 50.0 for example (accidentally i presume) at about 6.30 this evening.

Kavinsky

What are their internal polls based on? Because afaik there were no exit polls conducted and not a single vote has been counted yet. Not 1. That thread on politics.ie is quite large and from the quick glance I had seems to be a FF/FG argument. Could you quote the exact post please.

mike65

Listening to RTE tonight, its really did sound like a dead heat.

Someone on p.ie says its 54/46 (unreleased RTE exit poll).

Mike

I hope it's a No

dathi1

me too!:D

If it is..I want to tune in somewhere to see Dick Roches face, then Eamon "climate change chaos" Ryan.

cornbb

Betfair are at 2/11 for a Yes and 4/1 for a No.

Is there a possibility this RTE exit poll actually exists? If so when will we hear results?

darkman2

I think there is a shock coming tomorrow for the government. Alot of people I know have voted no, supprisingly so......and once again another boards poll on AH - 'How did you vote?' is again around 55% against. Alot of people o boards and P.ie say they have voted no. So calling this for the yes side is very naieve.

thefinalstage

I voted no and so did every member of my family.

cornbb

darkman2 wrote: »

I think there is a shock coming tomorrow for the government. Alot of people I know have voted no, supprisingly so......and once again another boards poll on AH - 'How did you vote?' is again around 55% against. Alot of people o boards and P.ie say they have voted no. So calling this for the yes side is very naieve.

A poll of your friends, and even one of boards.ie users, is unscientific. After all there's a poll on politics.ie that says the Ayes have it. Calling it either way is naive really, everything indicates that its really too close to call.

mike65

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=56232145&postcount=94

Mike.

marco murphy

Anyone have anything to say to the electorate, for not coming out and voting? I want a No, but either way, questions need to be asked as to why no one is voting on such an important treaty. Lazy whoores

jimmycrackcorm

I reckon a lot of people voted yes just to spite the rag tag group of motley no pushers.

empirix

i havent met anybody who voted - yes!!!

cornbb

empirix wrote: »

i havent met anybody who voted - yes!!!

Hi, I'm cornbb, pleased to meet you

Dave!

Poblachtach wrote: »

Anyone have anything to say to the electorate, for not coming out and voting? I want a No, but either way, questions need to be asked as to why no one is voting on such an important treaty. Lazy whoores

It will make little or no difference to people's daily lives no matter what way it goes tbh. This aint the Anglo-Irish treaty that ended the War of Indo!

I can see it being a No tbh. Just seems to be heading that way.

gollyitsolly

It aint over till the fat lady sings:D. Wheres Hairy Marney when you need her?

arybvtcw0eolkf

cornbb wrote: »

Hi, I'm cornbb, pleased to meet you

'Billy No Mates'..

Last report on the news this evening says counting doesn't start until 9am this morning people so we've a wait yet.

NO here.

AckwelFoley

snyper has said for the last month the yes will win.

The NO crowd that were involved in street poll results .. most of them wont vote and never vote..

arybvtcw0eolkf

snyper wrote: »

most of them wont vote and never vote..

Unfortunetely thats my fear.

Just back from the pub and of course the talk was of the vote.

Almost every wanker punter expressing an opinion (and 100% were for a NO vote) didn't bother their bollox to vote.

RandolphEsq

What is the deal with tomorrow? Will RTE get each constituencies results in a sort of Eurovision results style format to create excitement and tension?
E.g. Leitrim; No-60%. Yes-40%. But wait . . . we cannot accept this result as the 'No' option on the ballot paper was actually the 'Atari Jaguar' option. 'Yes' wins! Isotopes win a game!

Phototoxin

whatver. I love how the yes side are slating the no side and dismissing them as uneducated cultchies. Says a lot.

What says more tho is the FF connected person. Lets see... FF WANT a yes so obviously they are going to say it. Basically its going to be a biased source.

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

come on lads (i mean those who suggested that because they voted no, then everyone else voted no) - the money doesn't lie. It's now 1/7 for a 'yes' win on betfair. Money is talking here.

not talking about the right or wrong of a yes / no vote. Just that it is more or less certain that a yes vote has won.

Agent Smith

its (apparently) an RTE exit poll which was mentioned on the Late debate

AckwelFoley

Mairt wrote: »

Unfortunetely thats my fear.

Just back from the pub and of course the talk was of the vote.

Almost every wanker punter expressing an opinion (and 100% were for a NO vote) didn't bother their bollox to vote.

essentially thats my point.

Most of them wont get up off their pipe and vote.

.. i did..

.. but then again i voted yes..

I think, if you live in a country that affords you a vote you should use that vote, and i honestly dont care what way one votes.. as long as they try to have some form of an informed opinion and use the vote..

RandolphEsq

Phototoxin wrote: »

whatver. I love how the yes side are slating the no side and dismissing them as uneducated cultchies. Says a lot.

What says more tho is the FF connected person. Lets see... FF WANT a yes so obviously they are going to say it. Basically its going to be a biased source.

Nice pun!


*ahem* slating. . . . FF . . . builders . . . etc. *ahem*

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

Phototoxin wrote: »

What says more tho is the FF connected person. Lets see... FF WANT a yes so obviously they are going to say it. Basically its going to be a biased source.

How would someone 'bias' a result that is already a fait accompli? There are no more votes on Lisbon

darkman2

Roundtower2 wrote: »

How would someone 'bias' a result that is already a fait accompli? There are no more votes on Lisbon

Exit polls are far from water proof and the bookies make money with the favourite not winning.

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

darkman2 wrote: »

Exit polls are far from water proof and the bookies make money with the favourite not winning.

1) betfair isn't a bookie. Punters bet against other punters so there is no incentive or possibility of betfair biasing the odds.

2) you are right re exit polls. the current wisdom suggests that it is 54% yes, 46% no; but that there is a 3% margin of error.

Therefore, it might go either way, but the odds are strongly in favour of a 'yes' vote.

KnifeWRENCH

Despite voting No, I always thought that the Yes side would win out. Just always had that feeling.
Exit polls aren't perfect but they usually do give fairly accurate predictions.
I went with my Dad and he voted Yes, so our votes have cancelled each other out and are essentially useless!

darkman2

Roundtower2 wrote: »

1) betfair isn't a bookie. Punters bet against other punters so there is no incentive or possibility of betfair biasing the odds.

2) you are right re exit polls. the current wisdom suggests that it is 54% yes, 46% no; but that there is a 3% margin of error.

Therefore, it might go either way, but the odds are strongly in favour of a 'yes' vote.

I just checked P.ie and there is a poster saying he can confirm that RTE correspondents said there is no Exit Polls at all!? BTW P.ie is notorious with these mysterious exit polls. Dont believe everything you read. Not making a judgement either way btw - I suspect it might be yes but im wary of these sort of unsubstantiated claims.

darkman2

I think this is the unscientific poll of under 200 people they are on about tbh.


http://www.tomrafteryit.net/lisbon-treaty-exit-poll

Myself, family, friends and the majority of people I have spoken to over the past few weeks all said they would be voting no.

God help us if it's a yes vote. Bad enough FF getting voted back in but at least we can vote them out next time round, but this to get a yes I think will be the biggest mistake to happen to us and yes voters will regret it big time.

cornbb

hellboy99 wrote: »

Myself, family, friends and the majority of people I have spoken to over the past few weeks all said they would be voting no.

God help us if it's a yes vote. Bad enough FF getting voted back in but at least we can vote them out next time round, but this to get a yes I think will be the biggest mistake to happen to us and yes voters will regret it big time.

I think if it gets ratified life will go on as normal, the EU will move on, none of the scare stories will materialise, people who campaigned for a No will forget the EU exists until its time for the next treaty and then the whole thing will repeat itself...

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

darkman2 wrote: »

I just checked P.ie and there is a poster saying he can confirm that RTE correspondents said there is no Exit Polls at all!? BTW P.ie is notorious with these mysterious exit polls. Dont believe everything you read. Not making a judgement either way btw - I suspect it might be yes but im wary of these sort of unsubstantiated claims.

i agree with you (again!). p.ie is a sack of dogs balls. Was just going on what two of the well-known posters in particular said who have nothing to gain from posting false results.

Conar

cornbb wrote: »

I think if it gets ratified life will go on as normal, the EU will move on, none of the scare stories will materialise, people who campaigned for a No will forget the EU exists until its time for the next treaty and then the whole thing will repeat itself...

+1 on that!

Dave!

cornbb wrote: »

I think if it gets ratified life will go on as normal, the EU will move on, none of the scare stories will materialise, people who campaigned for a No will forget the EU exists until its time for the next treaty and then the whole thing will repeat itself...

+1

utick

darkman2 wrote: »

I think this is the unscientific poll of under 200 people they are on about tbh.


http://www.tomrafteryit.net/lisbon-treaty-exit-poll

lol there have been a couple of so called 'exit polls' on boards.ie then and all the ones i have seen came out 'no'

kowloon

The boards poll won't be of much use. I would think the types who use boards would be more biased towards a no than the general population which includes legions of old people who vote whichever way the main parties tell them to.

Time Magazine

utick wrote: »

lol there have been a couple of so called 'exit polls' on boards.ie then and all the ones i have seen came out 'no'

They're not so-called exit polls. They're polls.

The distinction of exit polling is that you're asking people who have definitely voted, as opposed to wasters who don't bother their arse.

I voted Yes, will be €55 richer if No wins, and suspect it'll be 52:48 in favour.

Rb

cornbb wrote: »

I think if it gets ratified life will go on as normal, the EU will move on, none of the scare stories will materialise, people who campaigned for a No will forget the EU exists until its time for the next treaty and then the whole thing will repeat itself...

Time will soon tell again. I've an awful feeling we'll be fúcked over by it though, I think it ratifying it just puts too much power into the hands of a few at the top, who's intentions we really don't know... Sure, we've a few vetoes left and "opt outs", but what if the EU courts beg to differ?

At least if it is ratified, it becomes much easier to leave the EU, whilst not the ideal solution now could well be in the future. Ratification means it'll also make it much harder for shítholes such as Turkey to get membership.

I know people say "It's all there in the text" when people mention not knowing what we're really getting ourselves into, but with the ability to amend the treaty after ratification, the loss of vetoes, change in voting systems, greater power in the hands of those running the EU etc...along with the threats we've been handed from member state politicans, EU president, their behaviour regarding France and the Netherlands, shady quotes from the author etc...It leaves me quite nervous as to what is going to come from this.

smellslikeshoes

The sources you give mean very little.

imp

Paddy Power are paying out already to those who bet on Yes to win, according to this morning's Times.

Hardly conclusive but interesting nonetheless.

Sherifu

By this evening we will know for sure. I'd guess the yes will win by a small margin.

The Bollox

there's only one sure-fire way to find out how the voting went: put up a poll. I'm sure the results will give a good indication... what do you mean it's already been done?

ruskin

OP, its amazing you have this information before one ballot box is opened or a single vote counted. I firmly believe (and pray) that the no vote will win out, as their support has swelled greatly, especially in the last2 weeks. Of all the people I know, only 1 person (who is a friend of a friend) is voting yes.

seamus

Yeah, no-one seems sure. Apparently exit polls are contradicting eachother all over the place, so it would seem like there's a significant amount of regional variance.

All anyone can agree on is the fact that it's going to be close and we mightn't have anything conclusive until the last box is opened.

Turnout seemed quite low alright. You could get parking at my voting centre last night. That says it all IMO.