Lisbon Treaty yes or no ? advice on bet

awhir

hey guys havent really been keeping up with this but iv heard from a few people that "yes" is gona be the out come , the reason i am asking tihs is im thinking of putting a few euros down on 3-1 that will "yes" will win.


just wondering if anyone thinks this bet is a good idea and that "yes" will acctually win.
?


thanks andy.


edit: also why cant i add a poll?

ArmaniJeanss

JebusCrust, you had me foaming at the wallet at 3/1 'Yes'.
Just checked Powers and 2/7 Yes is their price.
I think Yes will win but it could be very close, NiceOne was 1/2 Yes in 2001 but got turned over.

P.S. If you do know anywhere going 3/1 Yes can you let us know where (but PM me a few hours before you post it here tyvm :pac:).

5starpool

Ya, 3/1 would be a suicidal price to give out unless Mugabe was running the election results.

Culchie

2/7 is a sure thing as well.

Will be Free money, it's a cert to be Yes.

punchestown

See if powers are paying double result. If it did happen to be no first time round, the repeat vote will defo bring up a yes result!

jaykay74

I'd say Yes is almost cert. There will be a big push for yes in the run up and I don't hear any great No campaign. Odds are a bit prohibitive though, at least with my bank balance.

kildare paddy

no

ArmaniJeanss

A month is a long time in politics.
Powers now go 8/13 No, 6/5 Yes so those who saw Yes as a certainty 3 weeks ago, me included, have an interesting conundrum.

Personally I'd be inclinded to think that with the 5 main parties and the farmers organisations all behind Yes that it must be a shoo-in, but the No campaign seems to winning the battle of the airwaves. However the likes of FG and FF (especially) are past masters at 'getting the vote out'.

Anyone any thoughts on this 'exciting' event purely from a betting viewpoint (no political opinions please).

Keano

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

A month is a long time in politics.
Powers now go 8/13 No, 6/5 Yes so those who saw Yes as a certainty 3 weeks ago, me included, have an interesting conundrum.

Personally I'd be inclinded to think that with the 5 main parties and the farmers organisations all behind Yes that it must be a shoo-in, but the No campaign seems to winning the battle of the airwaves. However the likes of FG and FF (especially) are past masters at 'getting the vote out'.

Anyone any thoughts on this 'exciting' event purely from a betting viewpoint (no political opinions please).

With so many big groups lobbying behind the favourite it is hard to see past it.

Not a dead cert but the nearest thing to one.

kippy

This in my opinion has a NO written all over it and has been like this since the start.
There are far too many people out there who are very wary of voting yes to something hey havent a clue about. The Yes campaign have been unable thus far to point out any tangible benefits to use in voting yes.
Kippy

nhughes100

I'm totally in the NO camp as anyone who frequents the politics board will know but even I think it's going to be a Yes vote. I'd imagine around 55%-45% in favour of yes.

ruskin

Mark my words, that on Friday, the main political parties will get a real shock to find the outcome a resounding NO vote. People are not blind fools who will vote yes to something they have grave concerns about.

dsmythy

1/3 yes 2/1 no with PaddyPowers right now. Quite a large mark up from them.

Yes will probably just pull through. I wouldn't back the yes or no at those type of prices.

ArmaniJeanss

ruskin wrote: »

Mark my words, that on Friday, the main political parties will get a real shock to find the outcome a resounding NO vote. People are not blind fools who will vote yes to something they have grave concerns about.

LOL at all that. No offence but going by your previous posts in other threads thats what you want to happen as opposed to any rational analysis.

Back on topic.
Looking at the odds now its 1/3 Yes, 2/1 No. Looks like I missed an opportunity to have both sides backed in a 70% book when Yes went odds against last week.
Hopefully there'll be another one of these in a few years as they seem to be a great punting scheme.

nhughes100

It's funny, I hardly no anyone voting yes but I liken that to the way nobody admits to voting Fianna Fail, that voting booth is a very private place. Keep your money in your pocket on this one.

ramanujan

i hope you took this at 3-1!!
Amazing value. My fair price would be about evens at the mo i suppose

cooker3

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

LOL at all that. No offence but going by your previous posts in other threads thats what you want to happen as opposed to any rational analysis.

Back on topic.
Looking at the odds now its 1/3 Yes, 2/1 No. Looks like I missed an opportunity to have both sides backed in a 70% book when Yes went odds against last week.
Hopefully there'll be another one of these in a few years as they seem to be a great punting scheme.

Well if no wins you may have that chance!

Sorry, couldn't resist!

DonJose

Culchie wrote: »

2/7 is a sure thing as well.

Will be Free money, it's a cert to be Yes.

jaykay74 wrote: »

I'd say Yes is almost cert. There will be a big push for yes in the run up and I don't hear any great No campaign. Odds are a bit prohibitive though, at least with my bank balance.

Keano A Legend wrote: »

With so many big groups lobbying behind the favourite it is hard to see past it.

Not a dead cert but the nearest thing to one.

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

LOL at all that. No offence but going by your previous posts in other threads thats what you want to happen as opposed to any rational analysis.

Back on topic.
Looking at the odds now its 1/3 Yes, 2/1 No. Looks like I missed an opportunity to have both sides backed in a 70% book when Yes went odds against last week.
Hopefully there'll be another one of these in a few years as they seem to be a great punting scheme.

Not looking good for you guys, "dead cert" my a$$. I bet on a no and covered my bets on betfair at 60+/1.

Mellor

Ship it

Dodge

Even last night Yes was available to lay as low as 1.34 on betfair

Shocking lack of judgement

Chucky the tree

*Insert aftertime*



I am so great.

Dodge

Yeah, fair cop. Hate when others do it too.


EDIT: Should point out I didn't get involved in the market either way. I had no judgement at all, so double boo to me

askU

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

A month is a long time in politics.
quote]

It sure is!!

CHD

Culchie wrote: »

2/7 is a sure thing as well.

Will be Free money, it's a cert to be Yes.

LMAO

askU

chdpoker wrote: »

LMAO

LMAO = ?

Agent Smith

LMAO = Laugh my ass off