Fifty to Forty

trainbairn

You see a lot of the people on the Betfair forum trying various kind of threads based around trying to hit a target amount from a relatively small starting bank using all manner of methods, and I am no different in that respect, except instead of looking for a particular profit figure they are targeting by the end of the thread, I take a typically pessimistic Scottish viewpoint on things by trying to set a LOSS target which I am willing to accept by the end of the first month’s betting. Starting with a bank of £50, and betting to a level £1 stake, I will set a target of only losing £10 of the bank by this time next month, with the only exception to that being when I head to York for the Friday of the Dante meeting for a day away with family for which the bank doesn’t count. I am hoping that by setting a set loss figure it will make me think twice about which horses I actually place my hard earned on which I haven’t had so much focus on in the last twelve months or so.

Tomorrow, there are three strong fancies running, two at Ayr and one at Thirsk which I definitely think are above the norm and should be bet win only even though two of them are in double figure fields whereby four places will be paid out on for each way betting purposes.

For me, the Nap of the day runs in the Scottish National, and that is the Paul Nicholls trained Opera Mundi who looks to have ideal conditions here, which he didn’t get at Doncaster in the Skybet Chase. Even though he is just a six year old, this French bred has already raced six times over fences with a record of:11201P(3 wins from six runs) and his two unplaced efforts have come with excuses to these eyes. One was when favourite at a track he doesn’t handle at last season’s Cheltenham festival in the Racing Post Plate when finishing nineteenth of twenty three behind Idole First and the Pulled Up effort came in that afore mentioned Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster when both the ground was against him(Was too quick for him) and also the track would not have been the most ideal for him either. His record when rested for four weeks or more from his previous run also makes him of interest here with a complete record of :0211121P(four wins from eight runs for a 50% strike rate) which improves to:11121(four wins from five runs) when considering those races run on ground that was officially Good to Soft or softer. With cut in the ground up at Ayr, and a break since his last run of 84 days(albeit that he missed the Grand National because of a last minute setback), he has the look of one of the few horses in the race who can truly be classed as having a progressive profile and has the assistance of Ruby Walsh in the saddle which again is no bad thing in this race in my opinion.

If I had to nominate a danger from out of the handicap then Ferdy Murphy’s Noir Et Vert would be one who enters calculations from a low weight, if not for a jockey claiming seven pounds off his back. In such a race as this, I do think that having a jockey who is claiming an allowance such as this is a bad thing due to the likely lack of experience they have in such pressure cooker situations as these races. If he had a more experienced jockey on board then Noir Et Vert would have very strong claims with a record in the month of April of :11112(four wins from five runs in the month of April with the second place a short head defeat in a thirty thousand pound race at last year’s Punchestown festival), but I just can’t get the reservation about jockeyship off my mind and he is regrettably passed over in favour of Opera Mundi who was 10/1 earlier in the week and even at the best price around of 8/1 rates excellent value with stable confidence behind him as well.


For my Next Best of the day I head to Thirsk ,and the second runner owned by Sir Robert Ogden of the day in the shape of John Quinn’s Another Bottle who is very overpriced at 12/1 in the Racing Post betting forecast for the 2.40 race

When you consider that two seasons ago, he finished fourth in the Spring Cup at Newbury off a mark eleven pounds higher than he races off today, and he is now five pounds lower than his last winning mark, he has the look of a well handicapped horse. After that run at Newbury two seasons ago,he then was set some stiff tasks in the Royal Hunt Cup, Bunbury Cup and Cambridgeshire before a relatively abortive spell over hurdles with Paul Nicholls, catching the eye of the stewards on his jumping debut at Taunton when settled in and allowed to get an introduction to the Winter game without being knocked about too much. Five runs later, and with no wins on the board, he left the Nicholls yard to head to the fourth stable in his career in John Quinn. With a run at Pontefract just over three weeks ago to blow the cobwebs off him, he takes a drop in grade here against some rivals are taking a hike up in grade, and being drawn in stall one should suit as he can get settled in behind the pace from there and pounce on the leaders at the business end of the race.


And for the third bet of the day, I will be taking the chance on owner Sir Robert Ogden having a fabulous day with a third winner on the day. He runs En la Cruz in the 4.50 at Ayr in first time blinkers and if anywhere near the Racing Post forecast of 16/1 then she looks a viable option coming into the race a fresh mare since Jonjo O’Neill has freshened her up with a fifty six day break from her last run. On her runs at Autiell she is a mare who loves to run first time out and was in the process of running a cracking race when tipping up at Haydock in a race with the form boosted by Pigeon Island’s win again on Thursday. If jockey Paul Carberry is able to get her into a nice run on her first attempt over the larger obstacles , then she could take all the stopping here and at the prices has to be the bet, albeit more speculative than the first two that I strongly fancy of Mr. Ogden.


Hopefully, as mentioned at the beginning, this thread will be something that I not only start but also have the discipline to stick at even if winners are not always being banged in..


Best of luck with whatever you bet today..

Steven

trainbairn

The first three bets on the thread all ran poorly but this is a marathon not a sprint so not too disheartened yet and there is one I forgot about when posting earlier that runs tonight.

In the 6.45 that kicks off Wolverhampton's card, it will pay to take a look at the claims of the bottom weight Cassablanca Mnx to put a luckless run on Wednesday night behind her and get her head back in front. On that occasion she raced in the straight on the slowest part of the track but still ran on well enough to finish third behind Shunkawakhan. A winner two runs prior to that, he is partnered by his regular partner Richard Evans and at 6/1 he seems a fair shout here to get her head back in front.

Pj!

Alright trainbairn. I used to read your posts on EBA. Always a good read.

Best of luck.

trainbairn

Not been the most auspicious of starts with the current tally being 0/4, but the luck has to turn some time and just one winner will see me back in profit(or close to it) by the end of the day. Did look at trying to find one horse per meeting today but Cork and Stratford are both cards lacking something(In Cork's case it is quality and in Stratford's it is likely to be runners with 16 non runners already and counting).

For the Nap today, I go to Wincanton and the 3.30 race over two miles. Alan King's Copper Bay has an interesting profile for me and can take all the beating here.
COPPER BAY (Alan King) 6 year old bay gelding

Field Size.

Record when racing in fields of 10 or less runners:3P3211FP51(three wins from ten runs)

Record when racing in fields of 11 or more runners:093362345P(no wins from ten runs)

Conclusion: He is best in small fields.

Track configuration:

Racing on Left Handed tracks:93235P32PP(no wins from ten runs)

Racing on Right Handed tracks:63411F51(three wins from eight runs)

Racing on figure of eight tracks:03(no wins from two runs).


Conclusion: He is far better going Right Handed.

When racing on a right handed track, in a field of ten or less runners his record reads:11F51( three wins from five runs).

He has those ideal conditions here today and providing the blinkers work as well second time round as they did last time when he wore them at Market Rasen and won by four and a half lengths .The trip would be a worry, given that it was two miles four he won over last time but the other two wins came over two miles so that possible worry is taken care of, and at 11/2 he rates the best bet of the day for me.

For the Next Best I head across the Irish Sea to the Curragh where local trainer and legend of the Irish Flat scene Dermot Weld has done very well in getting Luxie in here off a nice weight after two wins since the start of the season so far. The blinkers that have been applied to her seem to have made all the difference this season with two wins from three starts since the headgear was applied. She steps up a furlong in trip here today but the way she has been seeing out the trip over seven furlongs says that she should have no worries staying the eight furlong today. The stable are in fine form, and when a filly shows such improvement then they are usually worth backing until such time as the handicapper finally catches up with them. I feel there is still more to come from this Acclimation filly and even at 3/1 she looks by far the best value in this race.

To complete the triumvirate, I have decided to take a chance and bet at the first meeting at Great Leighs, the first new racecourse to open in the U.K since even before Lester Piggott was in short trousers. The bet for me there runs in the 4.20 race and is Snoqualmie Boy who has moved to Jane Chapple- Hyam’s yard from David Elseworth.
It might seem daft backing a horse beaten in his last fourteen runs but five of those runs came at Group level and two of the other defeats came in Dubai over twelve furlongs which he doesn’t stay in my opinion. A Royal Ascot winner at three for Elsie, over ten furlongs, the main reason for backing him is down to the stable/jockey combination.

If you had placed a bet on every Jane Chapple Hyam runner, in the UK, ridden by today’s jockey John Egan(over the past five seasons) you would have collected seventeen times from the eighty seven bets for a level stakes profit of +£95.12 and a twenty percent strike rate. Take out the juvenile runners(only had two winners from twenty one runners, and in fact the stable have had only seven juvenile winners from seventy seven runners in that same time period), and the record would be more like fifteen winners from sixty six rides which would leave a profit of +£108.18 for a twenty two percent strike rate. That profit figure is skewed a bit by Mudawin’s win at 100/1 in the Ebor two seasons back so I then looked to see how the combination get on simply at the all-weather tracks and the results are even better.

Again, disregarding the two year old runners, the trainer and jockey have had twelve winners from just twenty eight mounts in the past five season with horses aged three and older, for a strike rate of just under forty three percent and a level stakes profit of +£37.27. When the stats indicate that the jockey is the trainer’s go to guy when a horse is fancies, you have to take sit up and take notice, and I have reasons for opposing the others in this field. Escape Route has stamina doubts, and Luberon is best fresh( I had a large bet on him last time out at Lingfield when he finished second on his reappearance) and went off the boil after his seasonal bow last year as well. The biggest danger could come from Marcus Tregoning’s Rayhaani but that one might prefer to be going a furlong or two further than today’s trip so at 7/1, with the trainer/jockey stats in our favour, I would be willing to give Snoqualmie Boy a chance to redeem his reputation in this easier grade.

Best of luck with whatever you bet today..
Steven