Model Runs: April-May 2008

Paddy.1

Hope authorities don't mind me opening up a new model outlook thread for spring. Just that I have noticed a trend developing in ECMWF's FI stage:



There is certainly hints at this stage of the norm returning, with drab, mostly cloudy skies, although looking quite warm. We shall see. I would rather the high was placed directly over us as this sort of set up will just have hit and miss sunshine again, just like the previous few days. I hardly saw any sun at all, only in little, cruel glimpses.

Danno

According to GFS the vortex over us hangs about till after next weekend, then the Atlantic introduces a very slack SWerly. Temperatures hang about at average or below for the foreseeable.

Paddy.1

Danno wrote: »

According to GFS the vortex over us hangs about till after next weekend, then the Atlantic introduces a very slack SWerly. Temperatures hang about at average or below for the foreseeable.

Latest ECMWF at 168hrs seem to go along with that:



However there seems to be a lot of uncertainty even within the far reaches of the reliable timeframe. I suspect swings and roundabouts over the next few runs.

ninebeanrows

Today's "ye're aving a laugh" picture

UKM 144hrs

Paddy.1

Great...


...more rain:)

Paddy.1

Signs of an easterly at last in ECMWF's latest run. Although at 192hrs, it is only a hope yet:




The potential for some sunshine and dryness at last.:)

Danno

That last chart there Paddy1 would spell power showers in the west. Pressure is far too low to warrant prolonged sun and dryness.

The chart for the end of the week though on RTE showed a long SW fetch...havent seen one of those in a while.
It was a proper SW source rather than a faux SW or West with returning polar air.
Hope it happens as it will make things more seasonable.

Paddy.1

I see what you mean Danno, but I'd take it anyway, the quality of the air and the sky will still be better. I really hate continual maritime sourced flows, it just looks and feels crap.

Latest ECMWF at 144 hrs. Low pressure never far away:



April showers bring May flowers..(so they say).

Snowbie

Paddy1 wrote:

April showers bring May flowers..(so they say).

Yup but probably the most boring month of weather in the calender year following the most dramatic month. Except for last years May gales, May is usually drab.

Danno

Paddy.1 wrote: »

I see what you mean Danno, but I'd take it anyway, the quality of the air and the sky will still be better. I really hate continual maritime sourced flows, it just looks and feels crap.

April showers bring May flowers..(so they say).

I don't know about the quality of air bit. Personally I hate the dirty air that blows from the east, you cant see more than two or three miles at best.
The last few days have had lovely clean crisp arctic sourced air. I could see the Galty Mountains from where the N8 road crosses the Laois/Kilkenny border. This current air set up is so healthy for you too!

Paddy.1

I should have said "visual quality"! I love the hazy conditions an east wind brings. It seems to soften the landscape and sky, almost like wearing a good pair of sunglasses. Just puts a dreamy hue on everything! Such a contrast to the usual glaring, wet and harsh skyscapes a westerly brings. Although health wise, it may not be the best.:)

Remember Paddy.1 , your health is your wealth.
That easterly in the summer just brings in modified smog from an urbanised and industrialised Britain and Europe which is essentially what the haze is.

That gets a big thumbs down from me.
Also it's off the sea here in the east so it depresses temperature which is not good at the height of summer.
It can bring a coastal temp down from maybe 21/22c to 12 or 13c quite easily Brrrrr!
In June and July-No thanks!!

nacho libre

Paddy.1 wrote: »

I should have said "visual quality"! I love the hazy conditions an east wind brings. It seems to soften the landscape and sky, almost like wearing a good pair of sunglasses. Just puts a dreamy hue on everything! Such a contrast to the usual glaring, wet and harsh skyscapes a westerly brings. Although health wise, it may not be the best.:)

perhaps it was haze yesterday that affected Galway's shooting ability during yesterday's game with Kerry:pac:

i really hate hazy weather because it ruins the views of the mountains and the the air is stifling.

Paddy.1

I must defy!!. Hazy east winds is the the only chance we have in the west of getting a decent temp in summer with low humidity. While the health issue is arguable, it is no less healthy than the constant damp, dank, and chilly gunk that is the norm over the western half of Ireland. Ask any who has asthma or any other respiratory disease who have to endure this constantly high humidity. It is no coincidence that the west of Ireland has amoung the highest rate of these symptoms in Europe.

BB, while you rightly point out that the east can be cooler in such conditions, please sympathise with us on this side, an east wind is one of the very few chances we western folk have!!!

Edit: On topic..

UKMO latest beefs slackens the flow a little:



Should allow daytime temps to be faily reasonable if sun breaks through in inland areas, though could remain chilly in the south

darkman2

Looks like some much colder weather on the way toward the weekend with even the chance of some wintryness for a time






Any snow for the time being likely to be confined to high ground but id keep an eye on the upper temp charts.......

squonk

Bit of a weird one but but, both on the west coast where I grew up and here on the east coast, I've always associated a good easterly with a very chemically type smell. It's probably that smog actually but has anyone else noticed this? It sounds odd I know but even waking up when I was younger, I could tell if the window was open that the wind had shifted into a stable east flow by that chemical type whiff! Always heralded fine weather too!!!!

Paddy.1

squonk wrote: »

Bit of a weird one but but, both on the west coast where I grew up and here on the east coast, I've always associated a good easterly with a very chemically type smell. It's probably that smog actually but has anyone else noticed this? It sounds odd I know but even waking up when I was younger, I could tell if the window was open that the wind had shifted into a stable east flow by that chemical type whiff! Always heralded fine weather too!!!!

And that is my ealier point, Haze equals fine, dry and blissful weather!!
I actually know the smell you are on about. I love it. To me it is kind of a dry, heathery type smell that I think is the result of the winds having travelled over quite a large area of land and picking up this. Despite the fact that pollutants may make up a very small amount of the haze we see in an easterly. Natural dust particles and pollen picked up over the large landmass of Europe, and indeed Ireland itself if you live in the west, make up a high percentage of the bluish haze we see.

Haze is not uncommon in large landmasses. The USA and Russia also experience haze when there is an intense anticyclone stagnated over a continent for a while.

nacho libre

i remain unconvinced. give me a strong anticyclone that build off the west coast and settles over or close to the country. Sure, it's not going to be warm as when you have an easterly or south easterly airflow. However, i prefer temperatures of around 17- 22 degrees and more importantly the better air quality.
It's also good from my perspective because beaches tend not to be overcrowded in these conditions where you tend to have a chilly onshore breeze. It's a great time for swimming too once you get over the initial brrr factor and take the plunge.:)

Danno

Or how about when a northern HP drifts down and intensifys over us? Under a high pressure cell we have the ability to heat the air from our own landmass. If I do remember correctly - it is what happened with last April's fine spell. The air is clean and clear and you get that "sun-drenched" look on the landscape. It did take the bones of two weeks to get maximum daytime temperatures from 14c to 22c - in the height of summer it would be much quicker, especially if the ground was drier.

Paddy.1

nacho libre wrote: »

i remain unconvinced. .:)

I remain adamant:p Cool and coastal does not do it for me at all. Have enough of that crap most of the year. I really enjoy the land warmed winds, and the soft skies of an east or southeasterly wind, and of course it's potential for an evening rumble or two..

On topic.

ECMWF seems to have lock on to the idea of an warmer SE in FI:



Not set in stone, and indeed that Southwesterly in the near Atlantic may win over in the end, but an encouraging trend for all of us I think.

Danno

Hmmm. Interesting chart Paddy.1 - I like the look of the Azores high back-tracking to NewFoundLand. That low should fill in and migrate SE into Spain.

On another note - the Atlantic is very quiet indeed.

ch750536

squonk wrote: »

Bit of a weird one but but, both on the west coast where I grew up and here on the east coast, I've always associated a good easterly with a very chemically type smell. It's probably that smog actually but has anyone else noticed this? It sounds odd I know but even waking up when I was younger, I could tell if the window was open that the wind had shifted into a stable east flow by that chemical type whiff! Always heralded fine weather too!!!!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7354538.stm

bizarre

arctictree

Thats a new one - 'Euro-whiff'. I'd say the anti euro groups in the UK are delighted!! Funny, the met office rep is Miss Holland!!

A

ch750536

So squank was picking up a whiff of welsh, perhaps he could bottle it.

Danno

What do they say about us Irish when the wind comes from the wesht? :eek:

Gonzo

theres been a smell of manure in our area for past 2 days, not sure if its from this but it cud be.

mike65

Listening the UK forecast last night held out some hope for later in the week.

Mike.

Danno

The BBC Countryfile shows us under a southwesterly from Wednesday onwards with showers caught up in the flow. Something a bit more seasonal I guess.

Paddy.1

Interesting rise in pressure over Newfoundland and Greenland on ECM's latest run at 192hrs:



That can only mean one thing, a return to cooler than average conditions for us if it pans out anything like this.

Not looking too bad up til then (if you like bland 'n' boring)*

*when I say bland and boring, I mean drizzle on coasts and hills.

Boring.

Deep Easterly

I know it's sad, but I nearly wept with anticipation at the latest ECMWF FI outlook:




It's almost too perfect.
But I must hope...

Deep Easterly

Latest ECMWF run (12z) has an easterly continuing, if not intensifying, right into the far reaches of its run:



Pressure never very high over Ireland either, so whether this will hearld a continuation of the fine spell, or bring something a bit more unsettled on a widespread scale remains to be seen.

At least it's a warm Easterly with the high positioned like that.

Mind you MetÉireann couldn't even get last nights forecast right..
Lashing rain here this morning despite they telling us last night that it would be dry apart from in the West and south west.They did have a different forecast this morning..must have looked out the window :rolleyes:

Unless theres been a serious Earthquake during the night and all was tied down so good that it didn't wake me or anyone else...I still live in the East.. :rolleyes: