gambling strategies - Help please

jameshayes

I know about the Kelly Criterion method for 2 results but I am looking for a method for 6 results.


If each result had the same odds how would I make sure I could always pick a loser?

The reason I'm asking is because I'm having fun with greyhound racing - I'm laying one dog in every race for odds ranging from 4-1 to 10-1 (the odds dont matter when laying if you win, just if you lose) The method i'm using at the moment is a random number generator (link; http://www.random.org/dice/?num=1)

Yesterday I got out of 15 races I got 14 right. Here's an example of the bet;

Lay dog number 1 @ 5.00 for €10 = liability of €40 -If i win that bet i'm up 10euro, but if I lose i'm back 5 steps,

So although I won 15 yesterday I actually only won approx 10...

Anyone think of any other way of doing it other than the random number gig?

bohsman

Reading the form?

jameshayes

Yeah, I kinda mix that in, but it doesn't always do it, you'll still get some wrong... I mean percentage of bankroll etc to maximise profits etc..

bohsman

Your liability should be the same in each race, 5-10% of your bankroll at most.

zuutroy

LOL, this is destined to fail...what makes you think random laying of dogs could be profitable? The over-round means your return on investment will be a steady -5% or so (depending on the liquidity etc) over a large sample.

jameshayes

yesterday I started with 100euro, finished with 200. Today i started with 100 and now i'm on 180. Doesn't see to destined to fail -so far-!

MrJoeSoap

jameshayes wrote: »

yesterday I started with 100euro, finished with 200. Today i started with 100 and now i'm on 180. Doesn't see to destined to fail -so far-!

Are you failing to see the logic behind his statement though? You could win €100m from this and it still wouldn't make it a good system.

zuutroy

jameshayes wrote: »

yesterday I started with 100euro, finished with 200. Today i started with 100 and now i'm on 180. Doesn't see to destined to fail -so far-!

There's no argument...its simple maths...over a large enough sample size you will lose! You might aswell be playing online roulette.

jameshayes

but do you not think odd's of losing at 1:6 is not good?

zuutroy

jameshayes wrote: »

but do you not think odd's of losing at 1:6 is not good?

I don't mean to be harsh, but your posts indicate that you don't understand the principles of gambling.
The market on Betfair is such that random bets will always lose in the long-term. It's the equivalent of betting on the flick of a coin with someone where you give him a euro if its heads, and he gives you 95c if its tails...You can go on a streak of tails and look like you're turning a profit, but do it for long enough and you'll be down 5c for every flip.

If you want to know more, look up 'over-round' and 'expected value' to see why your system won't work, and 'variance' to show why you're winning at the moment.

hotspur

jameshayes wrote: »

but do you not think odd's of losing at 1:6 is not good?

Laying off on dogs where the odds of losing are 50-1 is still stupid if the real chance of them winning is 49-1. It will be a long term loser in that situation.

But more generally, there is no reason why laying off on dogs cannot be profitable, but you fundamentally do not understand what would make it profitable, or the process of analysing it to come to that conclusion. I'm not attacking you for that, but the people here are making valid points. Your bets will only be profitable in the long run if you are laying dogs off for a lower price than their real chance of winning. Since you have no clue about the dogs' real chances of winning then you are not betting profitably.

What you are doing is no different to randomly picking a dog to bet to win. The only difference is that with laying it is in the long term that you are sure to lose unless you are giving poorer prices than their chances.

jameshayes

zuutroy wrote: »

I don't mean to be harsh, but your posts indicate that you don't understand the principles of gambling.
The market on Betfair is such that random bets will always lose in the long-term. It's the equivalent of betting on the flick of a coin with someone where you give him a euro if its heads, and he gives you 95c if its tails...You can go on a streak of tails and look like you're turning a profit, but do it for long enough and you'll be down 5c for every flip.

If you want to know more, look up 'over-round' and 'expected value' to see why your system won't work, and 'variance' to show why you're winning at the moment.

Well when I start losing money, I'll post it on here. Until then, I'll take my winnings and Lay some more!

lolkelly

jameshayes wrote: »

Well when I start losing money, I'll post it on here. Until then, I'll take my winnings and Lay some more!

what you should do is take the money you’ve won and stop when you are ahead. Hotspur and zuutroy make some great points but you just choose to ignore them. It appears that you have no reason for laying any of the dogs, so have no idea whether each lay represents value or not. Do you not understand that in the long term this is a sure way of losing your money? Or does the fact that you have won some cash blind you from the truth? I wonderif the first 4 dogs you layed had been winners, would we have seen your initial post??

jameshayes

I am heeding what they are saying but I am not finding the value in there statments. I'm betting on a 1 in 6 chance that the dog will not win, with added knowledge from form. It's working so far, second day trying it and i'm up another 75%.


Therefore i'm maintaining my profits by only betting a percentage of my bankroll - the only way I can lose money is if I was to lose more than 3 bets out of 10 - which is against the odds.

Collie D

Fair enough, you are making a profit but you've been at it, what, three days? It hardly stands up as a working system after that length of time. 3/10 is not hard to reach.


You say you're laying dogs with odds of 4/1 to 10/1. So basically you're backing at best 1/4 shots and at worst 1/10 shots. Sonner or later you will take a big hit backing at odds like that to a level stake.

Most dog tracks in England are owned and operated by bookies to maximise their profits eg Sunderland is owned by William Hill.

Dog races are graded in a much more efficient way than horses are handicapped. Whoever the graders are really know their stuff and most races will have dogs of a similar enough standard in them. Obviously they don't get it right all the time but how often have you seen winning distances of short heads and photo finishes in a dog race compared to a horse race? Slim margoins for error.

thedini

jameshayes- are u serious or are u trolling? u obviously post a lot in the gambling forum but in all fairness are u serious-u are using a random no generator to pick ur doggy lays. why dont u use it to pick the lotto nos. i dont mean to sound harsh but this is crazy and u will lose guranteed. say u pick any dog to lose in theory u have a chance of being 83.33% correct but if as i think it was zuutroy said the odds dont reflect this then u dont have a chance to sustain profits. u might get a few lucky days. come back to be with a sample of over 10,000 races it only takes c.100 days and i will eat my words because i have done a fair bit of research into this area.

jameshayes

4th day of doing it and i'm up to 1K from 100euro

IrishMike

Keep on trucking James.
Take 500 out and no matter what anyone says u have made 5x profit.
James for mod!


PS to anyone who is saying this is madness think about it for a minute.
Is it any worse than putting 3 of 4 odds on teams into an accumulator?
Dont we all do that basically every weekend?
Its as good a system as any if its profitable in the short or the long term.

zuutroy

IrishMike wrote: »

PS to anyone who is saying this is madness think about it for a minute.
Is it any worse than putting 3 of 4 odds on teams into an accumulator?
Dont we all do that basically every weekend?
Its as good a system as any if its profitable in the short or the long term.

Baffling stuff.

OP: Have a look at this thread from a while ago about a football system that I trialled.....This is one that I researched for a long time to see if it was a +EV proposition. Even at that I was still very unsure after over 100 trials...You need 1000's to be confident you're onto a winner. Tbh the fact that you've ignored several logical posts that plainly spell out the pitfalls of what you're doing makes me think you're trolling but whatever.

http://ww.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055098267

thedini

Irishmike- you shouldn't be encouraging him.he is using a random no generator to pick his lays for gods sake!i have never heard anything so stupid. why doesn't jameshayes use his magic dice to pick soccer matches etc etc.the dice understands value i suppose lol.james u say u only lose if u lose 3 out of 10. what happens when ur dice picks 5 or more losers in a row- broke is what happens. u should take ur money now and run.

jameshayes

Over the last 6 months my profit was 23%

Over the last 4 days i'm up from 100euro to 1000euro.. I'm using random numbers to make sure I dont pick on name/number and then I am using form to back this up...

Eg. if the random number is 5 but 5 has won his last 6 races I will not lay him.

The money I am betting is money I have won, providing I do not break down to less than 100euro I will not lose money.

IrishMike

Lads what i dont think ye are grasping is the fact that this is gambling.
There are no certs no matter how good a price a team is
Ill tell you throw darts at a page and picking your teams that way can be as good
as any way of making your winnings recently
With dogs it doesnt matter a toss what the form etc is as most of the races are rigged
anyway so what the hell is the value in trying to work out a number of parameters that
in truth have no bearing on that actual outcome.
I have used stats a lot in trying to discern the outcomes of soccer matches and after
some weekends i honestly think guessing would be as useful as looking at form.
James has made his initial bank grow by 10x.
That return is as good a reason as any to keep using it.
He is in a win win situation now no matter what happens so why the hell no continue.

I tried a similiar tactic to this with darts numerous times.
Back the odds on favourite to win any leg in which he is throwing first.
Returns were excellent even if the system was not actually rocket science.
Half of gambling is fun, its not a profession for most of us, just an obsession

lolkelly

IrishMike wrote: »

Lads what i dont think ye are grasping is the fact that this is gambling.
There are no certs no matter how good a price a team is
Ill tell you throw darts at a page and picking your teams that way can be as good
as any way of making your winnings recently
With dogs it doesnt matter a toss what the form etc is as most of the races are rigged
anyway so what the hell is the value in trying to work out a number of parameters that
in truth have no bearing on that actual outcome.
I have used stats a lot in trying to discern the outcomes of soccer matches and after
some weekends i honestly think guessing would be as useful as looking at form.
James has made his initial bank grow by 10x.
That return is as good a reason as any to keep using it.
He is in a win win situation now no matter what happens so why the hell no continue.

I tried a similiar tactic to this with darts numerous times.
Back the odds on favourite to win any leg in which he is throwing first.
Returns were excellent even if the system was not actually rocket science.
Half of gambling is fun, its not a profession for most of us, just an obsession

We have no proof that James has made hes bank grow by this amount! After posting is just stupid in my opinion. A screenshot of his Betfair P&L for Greyhounds over the last week would help to clear up this fact (if hes willing to post it).

Also, you make reference to stats and form for football matches, but again no reference to price and value, which are the only way to win money from gambling in the long term. For example in the upcoming Masters i think Woods will win it, but 11/10 is too low a price IMO....As a result i will be laying woods as i believe this represents value.

zuutroy

I give up.

IrishMike

lolkelly wrote: »

Also, you make reference to stats and form for football matches, but again no reference to price and value, which are the only way to win money from gambling in the long term. For example in the upcoming Masters i think Woods will win it, but 11/10 is too low a price IMO....As a result i will be laying woods as i believe this represents value.

Why is it too low a price in your opinion?
What stats or facts do you have for saying this?
Someone else who may know more/less about golf will look at the exact
same stats for the masters and say Woods at 11/10 is a great price.
I think liverpool to qualify to the semi finals of the CL @ 8-13 is a great price.
Someone else is obviously going to think the opposite.
Only way of knowing is to check the result after the game.
Making money from gambling in the long run has as much to do with luck
as it does being informed, saying a price is good or bad value can at times
be extremely subjective. At least James backing radom dogs removes
emotional attachment which is the reason so many people lose gambling
on soccer matches.
Hell its half the reason im backing Liverpool again even though i have lost
at least 4 times on them this year.

prendy

lolkelly wrote: »

For example in the upcoming Masters i think Woods will win it, but 11/10 is too low a price IMO....As a result i will be laying woods as i believe this represents value.

so you think james system is wrong but your willing to lay woods even though you say you think he will win???
that makes no sense to me but then iv no stats to prove my point!!!!
i usually lay people/teams which i think will lose.

zuutroy

IrishMike wrote: »

Making money from gambling in the long run has as much to do with luck
as it does being informed,

Wrong.

zuutroy

prendy wrote: »

so you think james system is wrong but your willing to lay woods even though you say you think he will win???
that makes no sense to me but then iv no stats to prove my point!!!!
i usually lay people/teams which i think will lose.

He may 'think' he'll win...but he also thinks the price is very good value for a lay, which is something completely different.

Pj!

The problem here is you have people who regularly lose from gambling argueing a case for someone else who regularly loses. They are all going no-where because they don't understand the basic concepts. Its like primary school standards arguing against college standards.

There are a few on the thread who make money or at least understand the basic concept of it.

Maybe harsh but definitely true. This isn't the first time or the last time this argument has been had on gambling forums. It usually develops into the 'losers' (for want of a better word) saying its only a hobby for them and all hobbies cost money. Fair enough but stop trying to argue against others who are seriously interested in making money.

And jameshayes no way you are up money from gambling mate. I had a scan through your posts on this forum and holy f*ck! You've no fixed bank, no staking plan and you bet on eveything and anything. You after-time, you bet accumulators, you bet without confidence.
Fair enough you could be in early days, we've all been there but unless you had 1 lucky big win, there is no way in hell you're up money.

63587614

I'm not sure what to say here lads. But Laying Tiger sounds ok but because its a tournament. But for what return I ask. That's why I think even at 11/10 your return is better. I think i'll wait anyway for the betting in running. Hopefully Tiger will start slow and then back him strong.

Again i'm very interested in strategies lads. Myself I try to stick to rules I've learned but again and again I even break them or just simply forget them.

1. Simply, Home Team

2. Avoid Odds of 1/2 like plague.

3. Avoid bets on teams in relegation trouble

4. Check form, team coming off threble wins dodge.

LuckyLloyd

IrishMike wrote: »

Making money from gambling in the long run has as much to do with luck
as it does being informed

The attitude displayed in your posts here is quite frankly the biggest reason why firms like PPP and Boyles are expanding rapidly in this country.

Could you please take up poker aswell?

IrishMike

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The attitude displayed in your posts here is quite frankly the biggest reason why firms like PPP and Boyles are expanding rapidly in this country.

Could you please take up poker aswell?

I have no problem being wrong lads so could someone tell me the error of my ways?
People are saying that even if you know someone should win an event the lay is better as the risk/return ratio is better.
That to me is complete an utter bull****.
If United are playing fulham tomorrow, fulham have only 10 first choice
players and the tea lady is in goals, united have scored 15 goals in 3 matchs
but are only 1-5 while fulham are 25-1 you are honestly telling me that you
would back fulham as the risk/reward is better?


I know thats an extreme example but lets look at the masters which was mentioned earlier.
Can someone please give me a metric to give me a price where woods would be considered a good price?
Would it be 2-1? Would it be 3-1?
What makes one not worth it but the next price worth it?
What im saying is that its completely subjective.
As a result backing/laying someone because they are not the right price is as scientific as randomly picking the winner.

ArmaniJeanss

lolkelly wrote: »

Also, you make reference to stats and form for football matches, but again no reference to price and value, which are the only way to win money from gambling in the long term. For example in the upcoming Masters i think Woods will win it, but 11/10 is too low a price IMO....As a result i will be laying woods as i believe this represents value.

IrishMike, Prendyy, JamesHayes and a few others.
You need to read this and keep reading it until you understand it.
Only then will you have any chance of not being a long-term loser at gambling. At the moment you are fooling yourselves.

Sorry for being harsh, but on this board hard cash is involved so theres no point in mollycoddling.

ArmaniJeanss

IrishMike wrote: »

I have no problem being wrong lads so could someone tell me the error of my ways?
People are saying that even if you know someone should win an event the lay is better as the risk/return ratio is better.
That to me is complete an utter bull****.
If United are playing fulham tomorrow, fulham have only 10 first choice
players and the tea lady is in goals, united have scored 15 goals in 3 matchs
but are only 1-5 while fulham are 25-1 you are honestly telling me that you
would back fulham as the risk/reward is better?

Its simple. There is still a price at which Fulham become the value even in this scenario. If you believe they have a 1 in 100 chance of winning but the bookies go 150/1 then you back Fulham.
Is this really that difficult a concept?.


Edit. By the way if Fulham were 25/1 then MUFC would be far shorter than 1/5, you should really give examples with books around the 107% mark to be realistic.

IrishMike

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Its simple. There is still a price at which Fulham become the value even in this scenario. If you believe they have a 1 in 100 chance of winning but the bookies go 150/1 then you back Fulham.
Is this really that difficult a concept?.

Not difficult at all, so no need to be so condescending.
The problem i have with "proper gambling" as ye seem to think it is, is how
do ye profitable gamblers determine what the correct price is?

If you can tell me that then ye obviously are a lot better than any of us meer
plebs who use sentiment and form to make gut decisions. :cool:

Pj!

IrishMike wrote: »

Not difficult at all, so no need to be so condescending.
The problem i have with "proper gambling" as ye seem to think it is, is how
do ye profitable gamblers determine what the correct price is?

If you can tell me that then ye obviously are a lot better than any of us meer
plebs who use sentiment and form to make gut decisions. :cool:

Determining what the best price is is up to you. This is what its all about. The better you are at it, the more money you'll make. Form is obviously going to come into it, but at the end of the day form is nothing compared to value.

ArmaniJeanss

IrishMike wrote: »

Not difficult at all, so no need to be so condescending.
The problem i have with "proper gambling" as ye seem to think it is, is how
do ye profitable gamblers determine what the correct price is?

If you can tell me that then ye obviously are a lot better than any of us meer
plebs who use sentiment and form to make gut decisions. :cool:

Earlier you said

IrishMike wrote:

Only way of knowing is to check the result after the game.
Making money from gambling in the long run has as much to do with luck
as it does being informed, saying a price is good or bad value can at times
be extremely subjective.

which is basically results orientated thinking. The result has effectively nothing to do with the correctness of a bet.

I can't really explain to you how to determine the correct price, it requires patience trial-and-error etc.
One think most people do wrong is starting with the bookies prices, and seeing what they like there.

As an experiment you should do it the opposite way, start with your own prices.

Price up every match in the EPL next weekend to 100% before you look at the bookies prices and see how many you disagree with (your price is bigger than theirs). Back (or theoretically back) each of these occurences.

See how you get on, learn from those you get majorly wrong, keep doing it until you have confidence that your prices are correct.
Good luck.
AJs.

IrishMike

Forky wrote: »

Determining what the best price is is up to you. This is what its all about. The better you are at it, the more money you'll make. Form is obviously going to come into it, but at the end of the day form is nothing compared to value.

Ye are saying that to be a good and profitable gambler you need to be able to
spot value, only problem is that ye cant quantify what makes good value.
Value of a team is competely subjective.
Thats my original damn point :rolleyes:
Whether you make money in the long run or the short run comprises of two
factors - good selecting and more than a little bit of luck.
If ye can point out that this is not true then im converted.
Otherwise ill hang on to my current belief that its easy to be arrogant and
condescending and pick holes in someone elses bets.
Hows about proving how ye make money with some tips rather than trolling?

zuutroy

IrishMike wrote: »

Whether you make money in the long run or the short run comprises of two
factors - good selecting and more than a little bit of luck.

The thing about the long run is it completely factors out luck, and you're left with the skilled gambler in profit, and the unskilled gambler in loss.

lolkelly

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Earlier you said


which is basically results orientated thinking. The result has effectively nothing to do with the correctness of a bet.

I can't really explain to you how to determine the correct price, it requires patience trial-and-error etc.
One think most people do wrong is starting with the bookies prices, and seeing what they like there.

As an experiment you should do it the opposite way, start with your own prices.

Price up every match in the EPL next weekend to 100% before you look at the bookies prices and see how many you disagree with (your price is bigger than theirs). Back (or theoretically back) each of these occurences.

See how you get on, learn from those you get majorly wrong, keep doing it until you have confidence that your prices are correct.
Good luck.
AJs.

Exactly, If i was pricing up the masters i would be 7/4 Woods and 2/5 the field. As a result, laying woods IMO represents value. as already stated the better I am at pricing events, the better I am at spotting value, and hence the more profit I will make in the long term.

IrishMike

zuutroy wrote: »

The thing about the long run is it completely factors out luck, and you're left with the skilled gambler in profit, and the unskilled gambler in loss.

I am persuming that i am no doubt considered by you as a lucky gambler?
Just to check i had a look at my paddypower account.
From 27/6/07 to 07/04/08 i have deposited 8003.11 in 101 deposits to my paddypower online account.
In that time i have won 17212.83.
Not bad for someone who obviously hasnt got a clue what he is doing.
That took me 23 mins of my life i will never get back to calculate by the way!
For someone who gambles as a hobby and to make watching saturday
football and the odd Gaa match more enjoyable then its not that bad going.

To me that reinforces my previous argument that this magic trait "value"
is about as relevant as what im referring to as luck.
If united are playing and i feel they are going to win the fact that they are
8/13 or 8/11 means shag all. The price they are does not make them
more or less likely to win, it only changes the risk payout.
You people obviously have strict and rigid rules regarding this
But dont go telling me because ye do ye have some magic formula developed
which makes ye infallible.
Arrogance and gambling are a really good way to set yourselves up for a fall!

zuutroy

IrishMike wrote: »

I am persuming that i am no doubt considered by you as a lucky gambler?
Just to check i had a look at my paddypower account.
From 27/6/07 to 07/04/08 i have deposited 8003.11 in 101 deposits to my paddypower online account.
In that time i have won 17212.83.
Not bad for someone who obviously hasnt got a clue what he is doing.
That took me 23 mins of my life i will never get back to calculate by the way!
For someone who gambles as a hobby and to make watching saturday
football and the odd Gaa match more enjoyable then its not that bad going.

To me that reinforces my previous argument that this magic trait "value"
is about as relevant as what im referring to as luck.
If united are playing and i feel they are going to win the fact that they are
8/13 or 8/11 means shag all. The price they are does not make them
more or less likely to win, it only changes the risk payout.
You people obviously have strict and rigid rules regarding this
But dont go telling me because ye do ye have some magic formula developed
which makes ye infallible.
Arrogance and gambling are a really good way to set yourselves up for a fall!

If you bet on a team because you think that they're going to win and don't care what odds you're being offered, and you're still in profit, then yes you're riding a wave of good variance. That is undeniable. Are you trying to say that every professional or serious gambler out there is wrong and that they should be betting on who they think is going to win? Would you bet on Denman in the Gold Cup if he was 1/20? Can you explain your reasoning why/why not?

By the way I never bet on Sports because I haven't got the patience to develop the skills required to be a winning punter,so I'm not coming at this from an 'I'm a big condescending winner' angle.

IrishMike

zuutroy wrote: »

If you bet on a team because you think that they're going to win and don't care what odds you're being offered, and you're still in profit, then yes you're riding a wave of good variance. That is undeniable. Are you trying to say that every professional or serious gambler out there is wrong and that they should be betting on who they think is going to win? Would you bet on Denman in the Gold Cup if he was 1/20? Can you explain your reasoning why/why not?

By the way I never bet on Sports because I haven't got the patience to develop the skills required to be a winning punter,so I'm not coming at this from an 'I'm a big condescending winner' angle.

Ok first off you never bet on sports yet you are picking apart my betting strategy and that of others? :rolleyes:
Zuutroy you may aswell be giving me advice about driving after reading a rules of the road book.
Anyway ......
No i wouldnt back Denman as i know nothing about horses.
Second i didnt say i completely disregard price did i?
I said that because i cant get the exact price doesnt meen i wont place a bet.
My problem is with the previous "informed gamblers" who are saying that
despite thinking woods will win the masters that laying him is better value.
How on earth can not backing the outcome you think most likely be the basis
for a betting system?
It that not a complete paradox?
When i bet i look at what i think will happen then get a price.
I dont make up my own prices and then back or lay the team depending
on whether paddypower or boylesports prices are higher or lower.
Thats downright stupid.
The arrogance of the people in this thread to pick apart systems when they
cant see the gaping holes in their own systems is mindboggling.
Just because "value" isnt incorporated the way ye incorporate it makes our
systems idiotic even if they are profitable?
Get down off those high horses lads before ye hurt yourselves

lolkelly

IrishMike wrote: »

I am persuming that i am no doubt considered by you as a lucky gambler?
Just to check i had a look at my paddypower account.
From 27/6/07 to 07/04/08 i have deposited 8003.11 in 101 deposits to my paddypower online account.
In that time i have won 17212.83.!

1. This has nothing to do with our overall argument.
2. I would consider this after posting.

ArmaniJeanss

IrishMike wrote: »

I dont make up my own prices and then back or lay the team depending
on whether paddypower or boylesports prices are higher or lower.
Thats downright stupid.

Its effectively how every professional winning sportsbettor in the world does it. But you dismiss it as 'downright stupid'. Brilliant.

IrishMike

lolkelly wrote: »

We have no proof that James has made hes bank grow by this amount!

lolkelly wrote: »

1. This has nothing to do with our overall argument.

My post was in response to your helpful post.

lolkelly wrote: »

2. I would consider this after posting.

Good for you.
Now would you care to address the arguments i made.....

IrishMike

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Its effectively how every professional winning sportsbettor in the world does it. But you dismiss it as 'downright stupid'. Brilliant.

No it most definitely is not.
Its how some make their money.
There are as more different strategies out there than you can shake a stick at.
Are you honestly telling me the only one that the only one that works is yours?

ArmaniJeanss

IrishMike wrote: »

No it most definitely is not.
Its how some make their money.
There are as more different strategies out there than you can shake a stick at.
Are you honestly telling me the only one that the only one that works is yours?

Mike, either you are trolling here or else its not worth my while continuing.
Every single successful strategy in the world is just a variant of what i've said to you, basically buying at a price that you have worked out is better for you than the correct price (or at a price that you can sell for higher to a third party (exchanges)).

This doesn't just apply to betting, its the fundamental principle of all business, and a sports bet is just a business commodity.

lolkelly

Mike, If you have a basic understanding of maths then you should be able to grasp that all of our points are valid. For example you say that you wouldn’t care if you wanted to back Man United and the price was either 8/13 or 8/11because you believe that United are going to win. At what point/price do you change your mind and decide not to back untied? What would you base this on?
With the example of the masters, I believe that woods will win but I don’t believe that if the event was played say 11 times that woods would win 6 of that 11. As a result, laying woods at this price would in the long term represent value and a profit. Is that basic maths too hard to understand?

Pj!

You need value to profit! Its as simple as that!

If you work in a yard, and know each horse who's set up for a win, the bookies prices wont reflect this knowledge and backing at those prices will show you profit. If the bookie also works in the yard and gets the same info, he will price it accordingly and you will get the same number of winners but you will show a loss.

For us looking at a screen it is a lot harder. I don't do any serious soccer bets (rarely anyway) but for horse racing it involves (for me) studying trainers stats and trends. I spend a few hours every day studying this and might bet once every 2 weeks. This can be different for others but this is the way I play it.

Making a profit takes work. Seeing Utd are playing Villa and putting your rolled up tenner on Utd because they are great and Villa are crap is not the way to riches. It takes more work than that. Unfortunately.

thedini

irishmike next time u are betting on a match and the odds are 8/11 pm me and i will give u 8/13 because like u said u dont care about the odds.