The Aintree Assignment

trainbairn

After a poor return at the Cheltenham Festival, it is now time for a look at the one race meeting that houses my single favourite horserace in the Grand National, and see if profit can be made prior to the big race itself on Saturday on the supporting cards Thursday and Friday. Having had a look at the cards so far, there are three races that catch my eye as being particularly interesting from a betting point of view with a potential nice each way treble in them, Especially if opposing potential vulnerable short priced horses at the front of the market in at least two of them

2.00

If he turns up here in anything like the form he showed when busting the stats by being the first nine year old to win the World/Stayers Hurdle since god knows when at this year’s Festival, then Inglis Drever can get the meeting off to a great n start for the Howard Johnson stable in preparation for their fancied runner Bewleys Berry in the big race on Saturday. Even if he does do so, there are still two more places up for grabs from an each way perspective, and it is then that the race becomes more betting friendly for me There isn’t the most strength in depth when looking at the rest of the field, with most of them having to either defy poor runs last time out or had hard races at the Festival and there are reasons for opposing most of them.

Blazing Bailey looks the most solid but has now seen the backside of Inglis Drever on the last four occasions they have raced against each other, and the one time he did beat him was when Blazing Bailey got a “solo” up the inside at Cheltenham. Whilst I would never ever accuse trainer Alan King of desperation tactics ( he knows more about training racehorses than I will ever learn), the first time blinkers do seem a little bit of connections acknowledging that they need help from some where to beat the favourite.

I can’t have Kicks For Free either, because whilst I can understand that his breathing operation may well be the reason for him holding his form better this season, I still have him down as being better going right handed and he would have been better being kept for Sandown or Punchestown and their right handed festivals later in the month. Gaspara doesn’t look like in the same form as she was last season, and has mountains to find with the favourite even with the champ on board, Millennium Royal needs a far bigger field to be seen at his best( Four of the horses six wins have come in fields of 17 runners or more) and seems better on Softer going as well as perhaps at Haydock.

Faasell and Kawagino both look to be gone at the game a bit which leaves us with just a few live each way candidates and one sticks out like a sore thumb to me.

The one that I feel is worth betting here is the James Moffatt trained Chief Dan George who won the Group 1 3 mile Novice Hurdle at the meeting beating two Cheltenham Festival winners from that season in Wichita Lineman and Massini’s Maguire. His trainer reckons he is best at this time of year, and he follows the same routine as last year with a run at Haydock followed by a run in midfield behind Inglis Drever at the Cheltenham Festival(Finished eighth behind Wichita Lineman at 2007 Festival and seventh behind Inglis Drever this year in fields too big for his ideal conditions).

The horse is better in these smaller field size that he faces today with his five wins so far being in fields of nine, ten, seven, seven and ten runners, and whilst four of those wins have come with cut in the ground he did win on Good ground here last season so wouldn’t discount him on account of underfoot conditions. With bookmakers going a fifth the odds on the first three, the standout offer of 25/1 that Ladbrokes go is just too tempting to let go unbacked since they are basically saying he is 5/1 to finish in the first two in the 10 runner race without the jolly ,and that is not right in my opinion and would say it is worth risking 0.5pt of the bank each way to get a good start to the meeting.

3.10

Another race whereby there is one at the front end of the market that I want to be against in a big way, even more so since he takes out a large portion of the market for win betting. I cannot have Celestial Halo at any price as I am not that convinced he is up to this grade, if the truth be told. That may sound crazy to say this about the Triumph Hurdle winner but he was gifted that race by his rivals and even before that I was not impressed with his attitude on both the level and also in his previous win over hurdles. Binocular however I do have no problems with and would gladly back at the odds on offer, if forced to choose between the two market leaders and it may well be worthwhile looking at what odds bookmakers or spread betting firms offer Binocular at in a straight match bet between him and Celestial Halo. At the likely odds on offer in traditional betting then I would much rather back the horse who has missed Cheltenham to come here, and prepped for the race by winning last Friday night on the sand at Dundalk.

That horse is Gordon Elliott’s Harper Valley who was impressive when beating Franchoek at Cheltenham before flopping at Musselburgh next time when clearly something was amiss.

Rested since that run, until last Friday night’s four length romp, I like the booking of Paul Carberry for him as the horse can take some settling with it being no coincidence that the three jockeys to have won on him so far in his career being A P McCoy, Johnny Murtagh and Declan McDonough.

With Ladbrokes again going Top Price of 10/1, he is still value at 2/1 the place to finish in the first three as there doesn’t appear too much else in the race to make a race of it with the front two, and I already have those misgivings about Celestial Halo which mean I would expect Harper Valley to be in the first two at the very least, so he is worth having 1pt each way on.

4.20

Again, Ladbrokes go best price in the village on the one that I fancy by offering 40/1 about the perennial under achiever Magic Sky finally getting his head in front, and confirming the opinion I have held all season that there is a big handicap in him. The last two winners of this race carried ten stone two to victory and six of the last ten winners have carried less than eleven stone when winning this race so Milton Harris’ charge gets in here nicely off just ten stone four in my opinion. He was fifth in this race last year, staying on at the finish having been hampered two out, off a mark of 139 and now races off a six pound lower mark today.

He is tried in first time blinkers today, having raced in a visor and cheek pieces in his last two runs, and if they can help him concentrate better and make his jumping a tad slicker then off today’s lower mark he has to have great each way claims with four places up for grabs and a quarter the odds being the place terms here. Just the half point each way staked here though, because at those odds you don’t need the whole point stake to make a nice profit from the place part.

So to recap:
2.00: Chief Dan George 0.5 pt e/w
3.10 : Harper Valley 1pt e/w
4.20: Magic Sky 0.5 pt e/w

3x 0.5 pt e/w doubles and 1x 0.5 pt e/w treble

Total staked: 8pts

Best of luck with whatever you bet today.

Steven

bassy

will be following trainbairns picks again.



would the real trainbairn please stand up,please stand up:D

mike65

One place, no better than me today!

Mike.

CantGetNoSleep

He definitely just had a poxy year last year

trainbairn

Day one of the Aintree meeting did'nt get off to the greatest of starts with Harper Valley getting 3rd place but Magic Sky running on too late in the day,and finish like most great each way bets 5th! . Hopefully today brings better luck with a few more cracking bets to these eyes both at Aintree and also one of the possible bets of the Flat season over at Lingfield.

2.00

When looking at this race, the first thing I have to say is that Alberta’s Run is a very short price for this and has to be taken on here. I mentioned in the preview I did for the Festival that I wasn’t that impressed with him when he won the Reynoldstown at Ascot, and even though he won comfortably at Cheltenham I still want to be against him as I still have those doubts about him. On his only start here over fences, he earned comments of “ not fluent 5th,mistake 9th, blundered 4 out, blundered again 3 out” and with those types of comments I would rather just watch him than lump on at short prices. What to oppose him with,though? Well I can see two candidates at 13/2 coupled that interest me far more to have 1pt win bets on at 16/1 and 14/1 respectively in Joe Lively and Cederus Libani.

Most punters are more than likely to have consigned Joe Lively to the role of good early season novice who got caught out once the other classier novices caught up with him, development wise. I tend to disagree with that view, and offer up excuses for his two poor runs recently. The Reynoldstown run came going right handed and he is at least 7lbs better going left handed so can be forgotten as the track not suiting him. At the festival, he did too much early in the race up front and was a spent force well before the race began in earnest. In fact, in both those races, whilst beaten by Alberta’s Run I have come away with the feeling that the races fell into Alberta’s Run’s lap a bit rather than him winning them,and if the re-application of headgear can revitalise Joe Lively then I can see him running a race well in advance of how his odds would indicate he is likely to do so with the Tizzard stable having had five winners in the last fourteen days from seventeen runners.


The fact that Howard Johnson had Tidal Bay in here at the five day stage, and yet relies on Cederus Libani is a tip initself to my eyes. Lined up for the Jewson at Cheltenham before being withdrawn after the abandonment of the 2nd day, he has done nothing wrong this season over fences,will not mind the ground if it is either side of good, and has presumably been kept fresh for this because of the ground. He does have stamina to prove at today’s trip but at 14/1(Sporting Odds go a massive 25/1) I would rather chuck away 1pt to find out if he stays, at the price.

3.45
One of the first trainers runners I look for when studying races over fences is Tom George’s yard as I believe him to be one of the better trainers of steeplechasers in the country, bringing them steadily through the hurdling ranks to gain racecourse experience before unleashing them on the larger obstacles. He runs Nacarat today who looks like he will be another classy chaser for the yard, as long as he has his races spaced out as his best runs came when rested for at least 4 weeks or more.


His complete record(including French races) when rested for 28 days or more reads: 6F11P1412(4 wins from 9 runs) which bodes well for today’s run after a break of 34 days since his close 2nd to Natal at Newbury(gave that rival 9lbs including the jockey’s claim and now receives 4lbs after that rival’s jockey claim so is nearly a stone better off for being beaten two lengths). At 12/1 he rates a strong fancy in this and therefore will be a 1pt e/w bet as I cannot see him being out of the frame assuming he gets round.

At far bigger odds,33/1, I will give that old bugger Crozan one last chance before giving up following him over the edge of a cliff. The fact that the wily old fox Fitzgerald was keen to see him race over the fences( and take the ride) is a positive for me because why would he want to get on a complete nutter who is more than likely to put him on the turf,at his age?

The stable now try him in a visor, having already tried blinkers and sent him for a wind operation this season already. At his very best form, he is a very classy individual, and if the visor has the desired effect then a little 0.5pt each way bet could very well be rewarding at those big odds.

4.55

It hasn’t been a vintage season for Henry Daly this season with just an 11% strike rate this year(and his stable star Mighty Man forced to spend the season on the sidelines through injury hasn’t helped) but he has a likely winner her in the shape of Alderburn under A P.

This one has a strange trend to his form, in my opinion, as he always
needs his first run after a long break and yet his wins have come after breaks of 37 days, 39 days,30 days,53 days and 103 days. Those two wins have come under the champion jockey, and he takes over again, having missed out on the horse’s last two runs because of his horrific injury sustained at Warwick earlier in the year. He rates high up on Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed Ratings and the run behind Cloudy Lane will have left him spot on for this, so take him at 12/1 for 1pt e/w with the each way part purely to ensure some of the stake money gets returned if he makes the frame but narrowly misses the bullseye.

In the same vein as Crozan, it can pay to stick a little each way on another horse who has top class form,if you go far enough back, but may be a shadow of his former self in Celestial Gold. If he is fit enough to do himself justice, on just his fourth run back after being out for two years, he will find this company far more palatable than chasing Denman’s backside from a very long distance away. He is a 33/1 shot for a reason, of course that is not in dispute, but if mister McGoldrick can strike back to form for the old timer brigade with his win at Cheltenham, then what is to say Celestial Gold can’t get his head in the frame here? In fact Ladbrokes go 40/1 which could look a very big price come five o’clock and I will have half a point each way at that price.

To recap:


2.00 : Joe Lively/ Cederus Libani 2x1pt win
3.45 : Nacarat 1pt each way/Crozan 0.5 pt each way
4.55: Alderburn 1pt each way/ Celestial Gold 0.5 pt each way

Best of luck with whatever you bet today..

Steven