Last Man Standing - advice please

christeb

On behalf of a buddy, he read the previous thread on this where the other guy was knocked out and he was wondering whether to lay or not. This takes it a step further, all tips welcome!

Only 2 left in the last man standing now.

Trying to devise a strategy that will result in a profit regardless of the outcome.

What I'm thinking is the other guy has villa and will probably pick them this weekend at home to bolton.

More than likely he will go through (but football can be a funny game and villa's form leads a lot to be desired)

Scenario 1- Me Win, Other Out

If I was to pick West Ham(H) to beat Portsmouth on the Tuesday it could work to my advantage (although I don't have any odds available to put a cost on the exercise I'm about to describe)

If the other guy went OUT on the Saturday, I could back the draw and porstmouth win for the Tuesday. if west ham won, I'd win (1400 -stake on draw - stake on portsmouth to win). If west ham lost, I'd win (odds on pompey win x stake - stake on draw) If it was a draw, I'd win (odds on draw x stake - stake on portsmouth win).

Scenario 2 Me OUT, Other Win

I go out on the tuesday and he go through on the saturday
I'd win (odds on pompey win x stake - stake on draw) If it was a draw, I'd win (odds on draw x stake - stake on portsmouth win)

Scenario 3 Me In Other In - Free week
He picks west ham and I pick west ham - it's a free week no need to lay (use tact the following week and choose

Scenario 4 Me IN Other IN - cost

I go through on west ham and he goes through on saturday pick
I take the hit for the stake on the west ham (prize fund is now 1400 - minus stake on draw - stake on pompey win)
I repeat the exercise above with a team on the following saturday (full fixture list on the saturday)

Scenario 5 Me OUT Other OUT
I profit from the lay and remain in the following week

Scenario 6
We both go through from scenario 4
prize fund is now ( 1400 - minus stake on draw - stake on pompey win - minus Scenario 4 stakes)
repeat scenario's 1 2 and 3 expect choose the sunday fixture on the weekend 18/19th hoping

Scenario 7
We both go through from scenario 5
prize fund is now ( 1400 + profit from lay)
I repeat the exercise above with a team on the following saturday 12th (full fixture list)

Scenario 8
repeat scenario's above and choose the sunday fixture on the weekend 18/19th picking Birmingham

Could end up with a small profit if it dragged on and other remained in (he would have to go through for the next three weeks)

Scenario 9

I team up with the other guy, we pick the least favoured outcomes each week and profit on the **** teams losing each week while both remaining in (by either going out together or staying in together), split the pot on the last day of the season?

christeb

Pot has been split, so thread closed!