Summer was on the way.....

darkman2

ooops made a mistake folks. Looks like Winter might be taking its place:o Plenty of snow showers in a strong North or Northeasterly wind. Bitterly cold from next weekend seems to be the trend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Damn Northern blocking......


Wednesday and Thursday should be nice days though with good sunshine and temps maxing at 16 or 17C.

Scubadevils

Music to my ears! I have given up dreaming about being snowed in, it just never happens, at least here anyway.

Bring on some nice hot days, barbeques, music playing and lots of cold Heineken Assuming of course we get a summer :rolleyes: :pac:

azzeretti

Where are you getting that info from? Excited about this prospect, I just spent the last while checking many well known forecast sites and all of them seem to suggest the highest temp will be 13...........

rc28

azzeretti wrote: »

Where are you getting that info from? Excited about this prospect, I just spent the last while checking many well known forecast sites and all of them seem to suggest the highest temp will be 13...........

Not quite 20c but 17c would still be nice;
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/18_165_uk2mtmp.png
I really want it to get warm now, sick of the boring cool days.

Gonzo

please let this be the start of a long, warm, sunny summer:) It would be difficult to achieve a summer as bad as last years.

CrowdedHouse

Last April was great

Paddy.1

"Ne'er cast a clout til May is out."

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1921.gif

Paddy.1

Paddy.1 wrote: »

"Ne'er cast a clout til May is out."

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1921.gif

8 days away is FI though so perhaps unreliable.
Midweek however is but 3 to 4 days away so a tad more reliable-just!

You'd have liked the hailstorm we just had paddy.1,I reported it in current conditions.It was stupendous,50mph 2m winds and visibility down to less than a 100 metres

Gonzo

CrowdedHouse wrote: »

Last April was great

yeah it was but that wasnt summer, we had a great april and a fantastic autumn but the actuall summer (may, june, july and most of august) were awfull and it rained almost a daily basis during those months with often below average temps. I hope we dont see a repeat of that this year.

Scubadevils

Deleted User wrote: »

8 days away is FI though so perhaps unreliable.
Midweek however is but 3 to 4 days away so a tad more reliable-just!

You'd have liked the hailstorm we just had paddy.1,I reported it in current conditions.It was stupendous,50mph 2m winds and visibility down to less than a 100 metres

That hailstorm was unreal, I had just come back from town and literally closed the front door when the sky opened... could hardly see out the back door. Getting dark again now :eek:

darkman2

I did not draw this chart myself:D

ninebeanrows

Yep laughable stuff!

Thursday looks like it will be a stunner though, sunny and 14-17c would do very nicely:D

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

ooops made a mistake folks. Looks like Winter might be taking its place:o Plenty of snow showers in a strong North or Northeasterly wind. Bitterly cold from next weekend seems to be the trend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Damn Northern blocking......


Wednesday and Thursday should be nice days though with good sunshine and temps maxing at 16 or 17C.

Thats a northeasterly origin but a faux northwesterly flow meaning most of the showers will be in the west,Northwest,North and southwest.

Will there be as much heavy snow as the last two times do you think ? Think this is the third time the winds have streamed down from there this spring...

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

8 days away is FI though so perhaps unreliable.
Midweek however is but 3 to 4 days away so a tad more reliable-just!

7 days away now...;)

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

Will there be as much heavy snow as the last two times do you think ? Think this is the third time the winds have streamed down from there this spring...

I dont know - convection is far better this time of year and can now happen even at night. The showers tend not to die out as quick as in January crossing land. Could get a disturbance - a trough or front - could beef the showers up. Daytime showers are guarenteed - night time is always hit and miss. No two situations are ever the same though and could get a few supprises if it comes off. Long way out yet though.....

The last two times were Northwesterlies IIRC.

Darkman2 you promised warm weather...
shennanigans!
Lets lynch him

Supercell

April is a great month, literally anything can happen in this part of the world.
Bring it on!

Paddy.1

Deleted User wrote: »

Thats a northeasterly origin but a faux northwesterly flow meaning most of the showers will be in the west,Northwest,North and southwest.

Which have thunder potential!!! The west is the best in these type of situations I think. However, even minor troughing within this stream can deflect upper streams and bring the risk on a more widespread scale. I would have thought the east coast would have some pretty big coastal showers regardless....?

Paddy.1

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Which have thunder potential!!! The west is the best in these type of situations I think. However, even minor troughing within this stream can deflect upper streams and bring the risk on a more widespread scale. I would have thought the east coast would have some pretty big coastal showers regardless....?

Oh at this time of the year with strength in the sun,it would be the same as todays southwesterly ie lots of showers but bigger better stronger and faster in the west and southwest as in today and with the above,I reckon the north and northwest.

That flow is northwesterly when it hits Ireland ie a faux northwesterly that is sourced in polar regions via Scandinavia.
I wouldnt be expecting any sea level disruption from it in Ireland at this time of the year.Look at the length of the sea track and the mixing thats involved over on our side compared to the East of Scotland and Eastern England where it will be much less modified.
If it pans out that way of course.

I was being sarcastic lads about the "heavy snow" because I reckon there might be some in the mix especially in the heavier showers and of course on high ground but there will be just as much very cold wind and rain.
Thats terrible weather in my opinion.
At least if it's going to rain at this time of the year,let it be warm rain

darkman2

I disagree BB


The 850 temps between 168 and 192 are between -6 and -8. Regardless of mixing that is the upper temp and that is cold enough for all levels - especially at night where lying snow would be likely esspecially inland from windward coasts. Whether or not the showers are widespread is yet to be seen but seems good agreement across the models for a big change next weekend.

Also worth noting we are always colder then Britain with the exception of the north of Scotland on the ECM with the Northerly.

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

Darkman2 you promised warm weather...
shennanigans!
Lets lynch him

Sorry:o It will be mild or warm and Sunny on Wednesday and Thursday before Winter belatedly arrives;)

Supercell

darkman2 wrote: »

I disagree BB


The 850 temps between 168 and 192 are between -6 and -8. Regardless of mixing that is the upper temp and that is cold enough for all levels - especially at night where lying snow would be likely esspecially inland from windward coasts. Whether or not the showers are widespread is yet to be seen but seems good agreement across the models for a big change next weekend.

Also worth noting we are always colder then Britain with the exception of the north of Scotland on the ECM with the Northerly.

DM2 850's of -6 or -8 do not equate to lying snow day or night in April unless you live on top of Lugnaquilla!
Snow showers are possible, but we need EXCEPTIONAL (one in ten year frequency or more) synoptic's for lying snow at <300Metres at this time of year in Ireland.

darkman2

Longfield wrote: »

DM2 850's of -6 or -8 do not equate to lying snow day or night in April unless you live on top of Lugnaquilla!

Your enititled to your opinion. You are wrong and should this come off you will be proved wrong:p



Folks, if this comes off, and you have a tricky commute or your snowed in or whatever all complaints go to Longfield. They say he lives in a Cabin in the mountains....somewhere;)

Paddy.1

darkman2 wrote: »

I disagree BB


The 850 temps between 168 and 192 are between -6 and -8. Regardless of mixing that is the upper temp and that is cold enough for all levels - especially at night where lying snow would be likely esspecially inland from windward coasts. Whether or not the showers are widespread is yet to be seen but seems good agreement across the models for a big change next weekend.

Also worth noting we are always colder then Britain with the exception of the north of Scotland on the ECM with the Northerly.

It will be worth keeping in mind I think that this Northern block induced flow could easily turn quite warm in the next couple of runs. A few degrees of a shift could make all the differnce. I have mentioned this potential in the M.O over the past week. However, while ECMWF is certainly encouraging and insistant about this block, it may well be severely modified over the next couple of days. I won't be at peace until it is in the 96hr range at least.

Personally I am hoping for some fine, dry, warm days and cool nights. I will take some land bourn showers as well. I think anyone who has experience of living in the West will understand why I keep my eyes open for an major easterly as shown at 216/240hrs in ECMWF.

darkman2

Paddy.1 wrote: »

It will be worth keeping in mind I think that this Northern block induced flow could easily turn quite warm in the next couple of runs. A few degrees of a shift could make all the differnce. I have mentioned this potential in the M.O over the past week. However, while ECMWF is certainly encouraging and insistant about this block, it may well be severely modified over the next couple of days. I won't be at peace until it is in the 96hr range at least.

Personally I am hoping for some fine, dry, warm days and cool nights. I will take some land bourn showers as well. I think anyone who has experience of living in the West will understand why I keep my eyes open for an major easterly as shown at 216/240hrs in ECMWF.

It will take a couple of days to firm up the details but there is little doubt a major change is on the way. The NAO and AO are going to take quite a tumble in the first week of April and there is agreement across the models on a major block extending from GL. Of course slight changes in posistioning will will have a big effect and those troublesome warm sectors will no doubt pop up but looks quite wintry next weekend at this stage.

Supercell

darkman2 wrote: »

Your enititled to your opinion. You are wrong and should this come off you will be proved wrong:p



Folks, if this comes off, and you have a tricky commute or your snowed in or whatever all complaints go to Longfield. They say he lives in a Cabin in the mountains....somewhere;)

Free accommodation and board here for those that make it through the blizzards and snow drifts

I've contacted nacho libre, he's worried that his snow rabbit might melt and wonders if you are available for rabbit duty this weekend?(transportation to the snowy east might be needed).
DM2 we are counting on you during this worrying period of extreme weather!

arctictree

Don't you just love April. Cold/Snowy/Warm/Sunny, all in the same day. Well, at least it wlll be interesting!

darkman2

Longfield wrote: »

Free accommodation and board here for those that make it through the blizzards and snow drifts

I've contacted nacho libre, he's worried that his snow rabbit might melt and wonders if you are available for rabbit duty this weekend?(transportation to the snowy east might be needed).
DM2 we are counting on you during this worrying period of extreme weather!

Dont worry - he can rebuild it at the Weekend following the Midweek heatwave.;)


Aye tis a strange month alright......

holly1

Not sure if im in the right place,but did anyone cut down on there power output tonight at eight oclock ?????
Since I read about what a lot of cities around the world were doing I have become much more aware.Every little helps.

darkman2

I did nothing for it myself. I dont believe in man made GW. Its a big money making con if you ask me.


Anyway ECM

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1441.gif

Cold for Ireland at least with wintry showers and some snow.

ninebeanrows

The April snows are on there way!!

Priceless stuff and i feel alotta people will be really shocked come the weekend when were getting minima of -5c.. especially after Thursday looks like it could hit 18c and lots of sunshine.

Supercell

Thats a real April chart alright, could be good

Paddy.1

Weathercheck wrote: »

Thursday looks like it could hit 18c and lots of sunshine.

It the cloud breaks..;)

ECMWF latest run a peach:



Some surface warming could trigger some pretty hefty inland showers if that chart was to come off something like that. From an "imby" point of view, The west looks nice and dry which is much deserved at this stage.

I think ECMWF need to be commended on it's insistance about this northern bloking, they have had it now for over well over a week, and have yet to back down.

nacho libre

I hope this comes off to teach all the people who want warm and sunny weather a lesson.:p

Remember that ancient proverb which says: He who welcomes Summer in April, and early May, will endure a crappy Summer.

ninebeanrows

Maxima Thursday




Maxima Sunday

rc28

Ugh, sorry but I don't understand how anyone could look forward to miserable wet slush in April:D

Danno

This has April 1995 written all over it. In fact I remember one day around the start of April 95 it was something like 17 or 19c at 12 noon and by 6pm there was hail and snow showers.

Scubadevils

Nah, feck it... I want my warm weather now. The deck needs to be varnished and grass is in serious need of a cutting so bring on spring like weather please :pac:

Villain

TV3 forecast just mentioned Snow on high ground after the weekend.

I just started my blocks for footings today and had to pump 9"' of water away!!! Lets hope we don't get much rain like last night, the rain that fell was unreal.

Snowbie

The chemists have got wind of the forth coming cold snap and have again stocked up on Prozac.

arctictree

Looks like some nasty weather in store for the weekend according to the latest GFS.

Sun 6z is showing temps below 0 with lots of precip around.

Villain

How would Leinster (carlow) be affected if those charts were to come off, trying to see what I need to do for the weekend in regards to my house building.

Thanks

mike65

Forget the weekend lets enjoy the next 3 days!

Mike.

darkman2

I think there certainly will be snow in the Northern half of the country at least. Sunday in particular will be exceptionally cold for the time of year, as will Monday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1142.png



Be interesting to watch how this developes - it looks like some wll have a tricky journey to work on Monday.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

darkman2

Villain wrote: »

How would Leinster (carlow) be affected if those charts were to come off, trying to see what I need to do for the weekend in regards to my house building.

Thanks

Hard to say. Still too far out.

revr

18z still shows snow for Northern half of Ireland Sat - Monday Southern half Sunday afternoon - Mon.

I could honestly see this being upgraded as we bound to get the heavy stuff this time with the NWW flow.

Ya know something like this is what will catch people out lol - Cry wolf to many times no-one listens they dont believe it will happen and it ends up catching everyone out

arctictree

UKMO have issued a weather warning for most of the UK (including wales and NI) for snow on Sunday:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=5

Quote:

"There is a moderate risk of a severe event affecting parts of N Ireland, N Wales, Scotland and NE and E England. Cold northerly winds are expected to bring snow showers which could give temporary, slight accumulations at lower levels. On higher ground accumulations of 2-5 cm, and locally as much as 10 cm in N Scotland, are likely. Drifting is also possible in the strong winds over the higher ground in the North."

A

rc28

Has this been downgraded yet? Meteireann only mention some wintry showers on Sunday.

darkman2

No there will be sleet and snow showers Sunday, Sunday night, Monday.


In fact Sunday night looks very interesting with a feature running down the Irish sea which would bring alot of snowfall to the North and East in particular.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn904.png

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-84.png?12

Snowbie

Thats very marginal for lower elevations DM.
I prefare this one instead. A trough moving down from the north with -10 850s over the east early sunday morning. Thing is no convection to bump this up and probably very little precip but temps be perfect if it where to come off for some snow.

However some single cell CBs be on display over the weekend with significant temp drops in showers during the daylit hours.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote: »

Thats very marginal for lower elevations DM.
I prefare this one instead. A trough moving down from the north with -10 850s over the east early sunday morning. Thing is no convection to bump this up and probably very little precip but temps be perfect if it where to come off for some snow.

However some single cell CBs be on display over the weekend with significant temp drops in showers during the daylit hours.

Its always marginal in this part of the world. One thing is for sure though - the North is going to get battered by frequent snow showers esspecially at night. Im yet to be convinced whether outside Sunday and Sunday night we have much of chance anyway with lack of precipitation. Another nowcast coming I think.