Could the Government fall??

aidanodr

Hi Guys,

Just popping this out there - now with the PD's and Greens making noises about Berties 'situation' after Miss Caruths days at the tribunal - How far will they go with this 'Pressure' for Bertie to speak out before his official appearance date at the tribunal in 6 weeks? What if Bertie cannot wiggle out of this one? Can the PDs and the greens stay in the coalition?

How far across the rubicon are we now? Dan Boyle of the greens seems to be alot more forceful at the grass roots than Gormley on this issue.

Dan on Today FM said "the Greens will have to react if Ahern does not make a credible statement soon on sterling lodgements to his accounts when he was Finance Minister." ( this comment made by the-analyst2007 over at politics.ie forums )

Has Mary Harney got much too lose at this stage?

Would I be right in saying that proportionally the greens have a far bigger female membership - then seeing Miss caruth breaking down at the tribunal and bertie 'seen' to be hiding behind this was a bridge too far?

IF the greens and PD ( ) left goverment has crafty bertie got enough in the independents to keep FF in power?

I am told by my wise old dad ( ) that Irish governments in the past have fallen for far less than the current goings on? Do people here concur?

Cheers
Aidan

ShoulderChip

your dad might be talking rubbish.

aidanodr

Hey Shoulderchip,

You dissing my dad - embelish your statement a bit more?

Aidan

ballooba

Over on the politics forum they are suggesting that the backbenchers will get nervous of an election and bolt. If the PDs and Greens pull out then that's a likely propsect.

Sierra Oscar

ballooba wrote: »

Over on the politics forum they are suggesting that the backbenchers will get nervous of an election and bolt. If the PDs and Greens pull out then that's a likely propsect.

Thats not going to happen though, the Greens and PD's could have easily demanded that Bertie give an account immediately - the Greens didnt even specify a date.

The PD's and Greens certainly do not want to leave government. I expect that Bertie will just step aside in the coming months and thats that.

Breezer

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The PD's and Greens certainly do not want to leave government. I expect that Bertie will just step aside in the coming months and thats that.

Seconded. Much as I'd like the current lot out I think they're going to stick the course, with Bertie either stepping down or 'stepping down' (i.e. being forced out by his own party) at some point coming closer to either the local and European elections next year, or possibly even the general election in 2012. That way, FF can be seen to be making a fresh start come that time, and in the meantime the Greens and Harney can continue their respective crusades.

For now, the Tribunal is suiting FF down to the ground, diverting attention away from their failings in Government. For every one person who wants Bertie out you can bet there's another who either feels sympathy for him, or blames the Opposition for dragging things out.

aidanodr

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Thats not going to happen though, the Greens and PD's could have easily demanded that Bertie give an account immediately - the Greens didnt even specify a date.

http://www.radioireland.ie/lastword/2732008-17.wmv - this is DAN BOYLES amongst others chat on The Last Word on TODAY FM - ( about 5mb download )

Okay - they may have not given a specific date, but Dan Boyle said that 6 weeks time WAS NOT a suitable time span for clarification - approx 5.50mins in on the audio above. One can take it that he and therefore the greens?? want answers sooner rather than later.

1.38 minutes in for mary harney,

Have a listen - then comment??

Cheers
Aidan

Bmark

I think Bertie has run out of luck so its time for him to retire with his millions(or even billions!!) he's gona resign before he's booted !!!

duggie-89

i doubt it, firstly the greens have risked to much going into power with FF if they were to pull the pin and jump they would shoot themselves in the foot and ruin any chances to be in power for years, i mean who would want a party that is seen to go back on its word when the going got tough.

the PD's have nothing to lose and so i think they would try and keep their position of power because of the shere fact if they were to go then what do they hope to gain..... more cabinet seats at the next gov. lol

also i think FF as a party would see it coming and act before it got to a point where the greens and PD's would jump. ie FF would say ere bertie der is the one way door leave n dont look back. ie resign cause we dont want to shoot you.

but i suppose ou can always hope for the current gov til fall, i say snap election and who knows what will happen lol

aidanodr

Well - both the Greens and PDs have 'put out' on recent happenings in this whole Bertie affair. They have now made public statements of requiring answers sooner rather than later. These cannot be withdrawn. Its now over to Bertie.

But suppose Bertie CANNOT provide sufficient answers to the whole Caruth portion of the tribunal?

What will be seen as enough to satisfy the Greens and PDs so they can now say they are happy and all is well again? And all this in the full glare of the electorate who will be watching attentatively to see will these answers BE actually satisfactory.

If the answers are not seen as satisfactory by the public as opposed to the greens and / or PD's and then the latter rows back anyway, how will this look?

Has the die been cast? Will momentum take over now?

Aidan

ShoulderChip

aidan you are been quiet sensationalist, its gas to have so much energy on this topic.

Sierra Oscar

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The PD's and Greens certainly do not want to leave government. I expect that Bertie will just step aside in the coming months and thats that.

zing

I expect Bertie will resign if need be, rather than let the coalition partners pull out.

Liam Byrne

The Greens have diluted their conviction and concerns before, e.g. Shannon and Tara, after being VERY vocal on both subjects when it suited them.

Back then, we were told that it was because they needed power in order to get at least some of their policies implemented.

Can't see how anything has changed there - this will be just one more thing for them to get vocal about and then ignore.

As for the PDs, they were in this hole back when McDowell challenged the Taoiseach to provide a proper explanation....since they believed whatever he said then, they should have walked IMMEDIATELY one of the alternative stories came out, but they stayed with it until AFTER the election.

Either way, both are practically GUARANTEED to lose support for not sticking to their guns if there's an election.

So I reckon they'll wax lyrical about it, tut-tut a bit, say "clarification is needed" and then sit down quietly until Bert appears at the tribunal in 6 weeks time.....

Would hope for a different scenario, but can't see it happening.....

is_that_so

On the basis that there's not an ounce of integrity in the coalition partners I doubt it. The problem here is not the larger Govt. partner but one B Ahern and when he is going to step down. Once he goes the threat disappears.
If opinion polls for FF start to go badly south then that will be sooner rather than later.

jimmysull

is_that_so wrote: »

If opinion polls for FF start to go badly south then that will be sooner rather than later.

Surely there's the issue that the next leader whether it's Brian Cowen or not, will be damaged before even taking up office if they blindly continue to support someone who has either lied to the tribunal or had others lie on his behalf?
For the party that means that salvaging poor opinion polls gets more difficult with every passing day

guinnessdrinker

I can't see the government fallling. Maybe Ahern will go if things get worse but thats it.

I'm not sure about the integrity of the Greens or the PDs though. I heard somwhere that you need to be in govenrnment for two years to get the pension. So one could be a bit sceptical (but would be delighted to be proved wrong) in seeing the Greens pull out first.

Maskhadov

the scum will never go.