Question about STT'S

Kamaldihnio

I have been playing STT's lately and I was wondering how people are up 20k in poker shark in stt's. Are these people just really lucky or what? You need alot of luck to win the stt. I feel I am as good as anyone I am playing but when you are out drawn and lose races there is nothing you can do. If you get to the last 4 or even last 3 and the blinds are high, you are racing quite often, you need to win these races all the time to make big money. Is it a case of people that are up 25k are winning there races all the time. I cant believe or don't believe that they are more skilful at this type of game. Tell me I am wrong, I listen to you guys all the time and want to hear what your views on it are.

Last of all I play cash games and mtts but am currently trying to beat stt's and was wondering what type of stt do you recommend. I currently play 10 player normal speed blinds. Is there an advantage in playing 6 player or turbo? I always thought the longer the blinds, the more poker you can play, is this not the correct way of viewing it?

I look forward to hearing your responses.

phantom_lord

the long run is huge in stts, as in thousands and thousands, nicnicnic and others will prob give examples. i usually play a bunch at the end of the month with points i've built up and i find the variance just sickening.

Kamaldihnio

phantom_lord wrote: »

the long run is huge in stts, as in thousands and thousands, nicnicnic and others will prob give examples. i usually play a bunch at the end of the month with points i've built up and i find the variance just sickening.

Cheers 4 the reply, sorry I dont know what you mean by long run? Yeah from what I read hear Nicnicnic plays them alot, I am looking forward to hearing his views.

RoadSweeper

Nicky O D and BigMickG also are pretty big into them.


In the long run the better players show up in the profits.

I find the variance sickening, and some of the players even more retarded than cash, but
they seem to be soo soft on Ipoker atm.

nicnicnic

I went 33 stts today without a cash so don't really feel about talking about them atm


these are quotes from 2+2 faq and pretty much tell you what you can expect to meet at some stage if you play a few 1000 of them

So, how bad/good can I run?
Quick answer: Bad, really bad.
Long answer: Standard deviation (SD) are used to describe this. In SNGs we use SD/tourney. Your results are 70% likely to be within one SD and 95% to be within two SDs. I usually calculate using two SDs, because you're rarely outside that.

Say you play 10+1 SNGs at 15% ROI (yeah i know it's low) and you're SD/tourney is around 19. If you play 500 SNGs (you might think this is alot, but I'll prove it is not) you're total SD would be sqrt(500)*19. Thats about 425. With 15% ROI you should have $825. Your results are 70% likely to be $825 +/- $425 and 95% to be $825 +/- $850. My point is that you can play a lot (in this case 500) of SNGs and still not be in the positive.

Now I think being about break even after 500 SNGs is running really bad, but it says alot about poker and SNGs. First of all it tells you a winning player can have a really bad run, but it also tells you 500 SNGs isn't really that much. One of the most interesting part of this is that a losing player, can run really good for over several hundred SNGs, which again explain why so many are fooled into thinking they're better than they actually are.

VARIANCE, DOWNSWINGS, AND SAMPLE SIZE

SNGs are, by nature, a high variance game. There are a lot of showdowns in any one game, so you are involved in a large number of situations where you are no more than a 70% or so favorite and are playing for all your chips. At times, the swings you'll go through seem unnatural and almost sickening. To compound the problem, a lot of players are continuously trying to get better and bad players often go broke. This brings the average level of competition up and therefore lowers a winning player's advantage over the field.

Breakeven stretches and downswings can last well over 1,000 games if you are playing at the highest levels. Even if you are playing lower stakes, swings can last hundreds of games. This means that to have an idea of your true win rate, you may need thousands of games. This sometimes makes it difficult for new players to know whether or not they are really beating the games. Unfortunately, that's the nature of the game we play. The best thing to do is constantly try to improve, play as your skill and bankroll allow, and simply not worry too much about swings or what your ROI is. It takes so long for numbers to normalize that your game will often change or you will move up in stakes before they've had a chance to. So it's almost futile to spend too much time worrying about how many games you've broken even over or what your ROI is. Of course this advice is more pertinent the higher you play, since higher stakes are where skill advantages are the smallest, and thusly, swings are the largest.

Kamaldihnio

nicnicnic wrote: »

I went 33 stts today without a cash so don't really feel about talking about them atm

Maybe you can give me your views tommorow, 33 is alot though. I think the most I have had is 8 but this is my point exactly. Where is the 25k profit coming from? Your supposidly great at them and you didnt get paid 33 in a row, obviously due to losing races etc when your winning and end up losing. So how the hell are people making big money? UL with the 33 loses, Im sure you'l bounce back, look forward to hearing your thoughts on it all. Am I wasting my time playing them I wonder?

nicnicnic

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

Maybe you can give me your views tommorow, 33 is alot though. I think the most I have had is 8 but this is my point exactly. Where is the 25k profit coming from? Your supposidly great at them and you didnt get paid 33 in a row, obviously due to losing races etc when your winning and end up losing. So how the hell are people making big money? UL with the 33 loses, Im sure you'l bounce back, look forward to hearing your thoughts on it all. Am I wasting my time playing them I wonder?

i edited the post above to include some stuff on variance from 2+2

33 is unreal, i think 13 was my worst run before and that in well over 10,000 stts
you make money through volume and making less mistakes then your opposition but at times its not an easy ride. I said this before but ive gone a 1000 games with a 33% roi ( where you believe your a genius )and 1000 block with 1% ( where you ask yourself whats the point, online is rigged, am i really this sh!t ect ect ). if you intend playing them in a serious manner rakeback is essential imo

Kamaldihnio

Thanks a mil Nic, I really am interested in this. How many tables do you play at once?

Hectorjelly

The problem I found with STTs was that they were so simple, after a while the play becomes totally automatic. You very rarely get interesting decisions. Also the constant battle to beat the bubble is bad for your soul.

The variance is bad, but there is bad variance in almost all forms of poker.

Kamaldihnio

Hectorjelly wrote: »

The problem I found with STTs was that they were so simple, after a while the play becomes totally automatic. You very rarely get interesting decisions. Also the constant battle to beat the bubble is bad for your soul.

The variance is bad, but there is bad variance in almost all forms of poker.

They are simple but try and win 10 in a row, I think you get interesting decisions early on when blinds are low. Very bad for your soul, 4th 3 times in a row when your ahead and are out drawn three times in a row can make you cry.

nicnicnic

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

Thanks a mil Nic, I really am interested in this. How many tables do you play at once?

I wouldn't disagree with Hector on what he says, your time would be better spent learning cash, but stts are well beatable and decent profit can be made. Most of the ?s you have are probably answered here

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=77914

Kamaldihnio

How many tables do you play at once? How many stts would you play in 1 day? Thanks alot I am going to look at it.

Kamaldihnio

Actually you never answered my question about 10 player v 6 player and normal speed v turbo blinds. No rush, whenever you get a chance.

nicnicnic

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

How many tables do you play at once? How many stts would you play in 1 day? Thanks alot I am going to look at it.

generally 5 or 6 averaging 10 an hour and i wouldn't play more then 6 hours ( i only play 6 man ) in any day, people playing 12 + at a time is not uncommon

Hectorjelly

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

They are simple but try and win 10 in a row

You are confusing two concepts. Tic Tac Toe is a "simple" game. But it would be far from easy to win 10 games in a row against someone who wasn't brain dead.

In fact, the simpler a game is the harder it is in general for a good player to have an edge.

Headspace

less tables = higher ROI = less variance. Also if you were better than your opponents you would be a winner, generally if u get ur money in ahead u win, varience sucks to say the least but if the fish lost every game they played they would stop playing. If you cannot beat the $10 sngs you have alot to learn.

Iago

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

I have been playing STT's lately and I was wondering how people are up 20k in poker shark in stt's. Are these people just really lucky or what? You need alot of luck to win the stt.

Variance is high, but you don't need a lot of luck to win money in STTs, only to win hands in particular STTs.

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

I feel I am as good as anyone I am playing but when you are out drawn and lose races there is nothing you can do. If you get to the last 4 or even last 3 and the blinds are high, you are racing quite often, you need to win these races all the time to make big money.

When you get to the last 3-4 you shouldn't have a lot of races, and the blinds should work in your favour rather than against you. You should be more aggressive and adopt a first-in or fold mentality in the majority of cases. A lot of time you'll see hero calls and bad play that will allow you to make the money and then look to win the tournament without having to take any needless risks. Of course you have to win the races when they come up, but if you're playing correctly those races should be net neutral or better for you in the long run. If you're constantly getting your chips in on the wrong side of those races then that's a bigger problem that needs to be addressed.

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

Is it a case of people that are up 25k are winning there races all the time. I cant believe or don't believe that they are more skilful at this type of game.

Of course they're more skillful, luck will only play a significant part in short-term results, after that experience and skill will take over.

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

Last of all I play cash games and mtts but am currently trying to beat stt's and was wondering what type of stt do you recommend. I currently play 10 player normal speed blinds. Is there an advantage in playing 6 player or turbo? I always thought the longer the blinds, the more poker you can play, is this not the correct way of viewing it?

I look forward to hearing your responses.

If you play 6 pac turbo games you get through more games in an hour. They also tend to appeal more to gambling types who want a quick game rather than a protracted 10-man normal blind game. Unfortunately they also appeal to the better players who can take advantage of this!

I would recommend 6 pac turbos if you're going to take this seriously.

HoLLLLLaments

nicnicnic wrote: »

I went 33 stts today without a cash

thats quite an achievement

Mr.Plough

I played only STT's for a day a couple of months ago and it is still the only day where I actually cried playing poker.

Make no mistake they are utterly soul crushing.

nicnicnic wrote:

I went 33 stts today without a cash

I threw up in my mouth a little.

nicnicnic

HoLLLLLaments wrote: »

thats quite an achievement

ty once i hit 20 I knew It could be epic

HoLLLLLaments

nicnicnic wrote: »

ty once i hit 20 I knew It could be epic

could be worse i suppose, at least they werent HU stts

Kamaldihnio

Iago wrote: »

Variance is high, but you don't need a lot of luck to win money in STTs, only to win hands in particular STTs.



When you get to the last 3-4 you shouldn't have a lot of races, and the blinds should work in your favour rather than against you. You should be more aggressive and adopt a first-in or fold mentality in the majority of cases. A lot of time you'll see hero calls and bad play that will allow you to make the money and then look to win the tournament without having to take any needless risks. Of course you have to win the races when they come up, but if you're playing correctly those races should be net neutral or better for you in the long run. If you're constantly getting your chips in on the wrong side of those races then that's a bigger problem that needs to be addressed.




Of course they're more skillful, luck will only play a significant part in short-term results, after that experience and skill will take over.





If you play 6 pac turbo games you get through more games in an hour. They also tend to appeal more to gambling types who want a quick game rather than a protracted 10-man normal blind game. Unfortunately they also appeal to the better players who can take advantage of this!

I would recommend 6 pac turbos if you're going to take this seriously.

Thanks for the feedback, always interested in your views. Havent been online in a while. Does everyone who play stts seriously reccomend 6 pac turbos?

nicnicnic

these are graphs of a batch of about 900 games i played from mid January to a couple of weeks ago on a new account, i split the results between turbos and non turbos on sharkscope and was a little surprised by what i found re the gap in roi between the two

turbos roi 2%

[IMG][/img]


non turbos roi 22%



turbos = > variance

luckylucky

nicnicnic wrote: »

these are graphs of a batch of about 900 games i played from mid January to a couple of weeks ago on a new account, i split the results between turbos and non turbos on sharkscope and was a little surprised by what i found re the gap in roi between the two

turbos roi 2%


non turbos roi 22%


turbos = > variance

As you say yourself though 900 games isn't enough to accurately judge your true ROI%. My own figures don't vary anywhere near to that degree.

I think turbos are perhaps just as profitable if not more so than normal speed. Your ROI% will definitely be lower but you spend less time on them so your actual profits can be higher as you can play more per hour. I'd defo give super turbos a miss though - pure lottery time.

BIGMICKG

im not a big fan of turbos myself the variance in them is just frightening! like unbelieveable! i know most of the stt pros find them more profitable but for me there not. id recommend non turbos for anyone starting to get serious about stts.

luckylucky

BIGMICKG wrote: »

i know most of the stt pros find them more profitable

As you say variance is higher in them, maybe you have just been unlucky, am I right in saying you haven't played loads of them? Also the big point on them is the fish prefer them, these games fill up a lot quicker so no waiting around.

BIGMICKG wrote: »

id recommend non turbos for anyone starting to get serious about stts.

I'd agree with this, non turbos are a far better way to improve your game

BIGMICKG

ive played over 2000 of them a decent enough sample size imo

luckylucky

BIGMICKG wrote: »

ive played over 2000 of them a decent enough sample size imo

Yip. a decent enough sample size, though probably not conclusive either. I dunno as you say perhaps they are not your forte then I suppose.

Iago

The thing about turbos (Ipoker skins) is that there is only a slight time difference between them and normal games. However there is a big difference in terms of the number of bad players that opt for turbos (imho)

More fish + quicker games + all-in madness = higher variance + higher profits

I've found that the non-turbo games on Ipoker tend to attract a more patient type of player, one that doesn't go all-in in the first few levels, meaning that when the blinds get up to 100-200, the average stack is only around 1,500. In the turbos, by the time the blinds get up to 100-200 you're normally down to 3 players max and at least one of those is desperate to finish in the money so you can pick up a lot of blinds free of charge.

When I started out, I only played 9-handed regular blinds. Then I started mixing 9-handed regular blinds with 6-handed regular blinds. Then I moved to 6 handed exclusively, and then to 6 handed turbos. I still occasionally play non-turbos, mostly to fill up my tables because Ipoker doesn't have the traffic initially, but 90-95% of my play is 6 pac turbos. I just find that they are easier to cash in, plus the fact that I'm normally clearing bonuses or rakeback means that the more I get through the more I make in additional funds as well as poker returns.

Kamaldihnio

Iago wrote: »

The thing about turbos (Ipoker skins) is that there is only a slight time difference between them and normal games. However there is a big difference in terms of the number of bad players that opt for turbos (imho)

More fish + quicker games + all-in madness = higher variance + higher profits

I've found that the non-turbo games on Ipoker tend to attract a more patient type of player, one that doesn't go all-in in the first few levels, meaning that when the blinds get up to 100-200, the average stack is only around 1,500. In the turbos, by the time the blinds get up to 100-200 you're normally down to 3 players max and at least one of those is desperate to finish in the money so you can pick up a lot of blinds free of charge.

When I started out, I only played 9-handed regular blinds. Then I started mixing 9-handed regular blinds with 6-handed regular blinds. Then I moved to 6 handed exclusively, and then to 6 handed turbos. I still occasionally play non-turbos, mostly to fill up my tables because Ipoker doesn't have the traffic initially, but 90-95% of my play is 6 pac turbos. I just find that they are easier to cash in, plus the fact that I'm normally clearing bonuses or rakeback means that the more I get through the more I make in additional funds as well as poker returns.

Its a very good point you make, I will definatley give it a try. Cheers.

RasTa

Awesome.

nicnicnic

RasTa wrote: »

Awesome.

when i looked at the graph I knew it couldnt be holdem stts, this guy is specializing in HU omaha HI/lo

jayteecork

I entered 2 sit and gos tonight and won 2.
Pity they were only 2.50 ones.
I won despite getting DCed constantly. (I was on Betfair).

I find, and i know poker theory-ists will kill me about this, that you should limp every hand when the blinds are low and try and hit a flop.
If you double yourself up early on I find you can fold nearly time to the money, just playing real premiums if you will.

DubTony

jayteecork wrote: »

I entered 2 sit and gos tonight and won 2.
Pity they were only 2.50 ones.
I won despite getting DCed constantly. (I was on Betfair).

I find, and i know poker theory-ists will kill me about this, that you should limp every hand when the blinds are low and try and hit a flop.
If you double yourself up early on I find you can fold nearly time to the money, just playing real premiums if you will.

At a €2.50 table you'll see quite a few flops when you limp (with 5 other limpers). When you move up a couple of levels that'll change. You're limp will face a raise on most hands. You'll find yourself limp-folding a hell of a lot. You definitely won't be folding your way into the money at that point.