4/1 That the Kauto Star & Denman will Be Beat

LegacyUser

In boyle sports today there offering 4/1 that denman or Kauto wont win!! Good Bet

Kinda32

powers were offering 6/1 a couple of days ago. And as some other people pointed out on another thread laying both on betfair would work out even better..

LegacyUser

what are powers offering now ?? so there just has to a winner other than denman or kauto?

mike65

Was listening to Denmans trainer or owner (not sure) today on Pat kennys prog, he said that basicly, anyone putting money on anything other than Star or his nag would be throwing money away.

Mike.

masterK

Based on Betfair odds KS has a 46% chance of winning, Denman 36% meaning there's an 18% chance something else will win which represents 9/2 so if Powers were offering 6/1 that is a very generous price and a possible dutching opportunity, albeit very small.

meriwether

mike65 wrote: »

Was listening to Denmans trainer or owner (not sure) today on Pat kennys prog, he said that basicly, anyone putting money on anything other than Star or his nag would be throwing money away.

Mike.

Id say it was Harry Findley.
Harry's been adopted as Irelands favourite celeb since Katy kicked the bucket, it seems.

He comes over, tells us we're great (facking great time at Leopardstown, done me dough, you Irish know how to drink, oo me 'ead, apples and Pears Guvnor, etc), and we love him.

But he is right. Ive an e/w on Halcon Generaldis, but thats in hoping he will snatch third. He hasn't a hope of winning.

LegacyUser

anyone betting big on Kauto? Tempted to put 100 on him, but this 4/1 thing would be a nice back-up plan!

Hobart

All the signs are that Kauto will win. 4/1 might appear generous, but I won't be tempted. Denman to make all the running with Kauto to out jump him at the last. I'll eat a large trilby if Kauto does not win.

BangBeater

Or how about ED E/W at 12/1...?

meriwether

BangBeater wrote: »

Or how about ED E/W at 12/1...?

A good bet IMO, if he's spot on.
There was an issue with his wellbeing a few weeks ago, but Im sure he will be right for the day,

mdwexford

This thread makes baby Jesus cry.

mickc

robdcu wrote: »

anyone betting big on Kauto? Tempted to put 100 on him, but this 4/1 thing would be a nice back-up plan!

wont be betting big on kauto but am really looking forward to this race.

i dont see 4-1 as a nice backup plan if you're backing kauto because is kauto doesnt win then denman will.

BangBeater

mdwexford wrote: »

This thread makes baby Jesus cry.

Well, obviously KS and Denman are the two market leaders in the race and have the form... but it is a horse race at the end of the day & stranger things have happened!

Everyone is entitled to a bit of speculation on it.

But of course, in theory, the thought of them both being beaten is possible insanity... :eek:

BangBeater

robdcu wrote: »

anyone betting big on Kauto? Tempted to put 100 on him, but this 4/1 thing would be a nice back-up plan!

You want the best value? Get your €100 & stick it on a straight forecast... KS - Denman!

Any one got any idea what price that might be, if it was to occur?

meriwether

BangBeater wrote: »

You want the best value? Get your €100 & stick it on a straight forecast... KS - Denman!

Any one got any idea what price that might be, if it was to occur?

I'd hazard a 11/10 and 13/8 SF in a gold Cup would be €2.80, in and around?

Anyone know better?

mdwexford

I was thinking it would pay maybe 9/4 or so, never do f/c's though so not 100% sure.

mickc

forecasts are usually paid out of the pool of forecast bets for that race

thats why when you bet on a website they wont show you the possible return, it can only be calculated once all tehe forecasts bets have been placed

imo you wont get anywhere near 2-1 sf in this race as most people will be punting KS/denman.

Bluetonic

mickc wrote: »

forecasts are usually paid out of the pool of forecast bets for that race

thats why when you bet on a website they wont show you the possible return, it can only be calculated once all tehe forecasts bets have been placed

imo you wont get anywhere near 2-1 sf in this race as most people will be punting KS/denman.

Exactly, it's the pool of money bet on the market (forecast in this case) divided by the number of bets (less a % for the tote).

Keano

meriwether wrote: »

A good bet IMO, if he's spot on.
There was an issue with his wellbeing a few weeks ago, but Im sure he will be right for the day,

Going to back Exotic Dancer for a place. I want Kauto to win and reckon he will so I will be happy to see ED chasing Kauto up the hill...

meriwether

Bluetonic wrote: »

Exactly, it's the pool of money bet on the market (forecast in this case) divided by the number of bets (less a % for the tote).

Oh, I see.
I thought it was a complex math formula (never believe things you hear in a bookies) involving the sp's of the horses in question, plus factoring in the competitiveness of the race.
Which sounds like a pile of bollix now that someone has posited the answer above.

Though of course, there will be a relationship between the SP's of the horses in question, the competitiveness of the race, and the pool divided by the number of bets.

mickc

meriwether wrote: »

Oh, I see.
I thought it was a complex math formula (never believe things you hear in a bookies) involving the sp's of the horses in question, plus factoring in the competitiveness of the race.
Which sounds like a pile of bollix now that someone has posited the answer above.

Though of course, there will be a relationship between the SP's of the horses in question, the competitiveness of the race, and the pool divided by the number of bets.

the tote uses the pool divided by the number of bets

bookmakers use whats called the Computer Straight Forecast or CSF which is apparently a very complex formula but i dont know if it involves a pool or not.

Bluetonic

mickc wrote: »

bookmakers use whats called the Computer Straight Forecast or CSF which is apparently a very complex formula but i dont know if it involves a pool or not.

Good read on it here.

http://www.win2win.co.uk/forum/archive/index.php/t-24402.html

mickc

ah, so its that simple!

so the bookies hands over your CSF winnings and if you have any complaints he gives you a piece of paper and a calculator to work it out for yourself..

roakey

robdcu wrote: »

In boyle sports today there offering 4/1 that denman or Kauto wont win!! Good Bet

id be asking for a bit more than that

BobbyD10

BangBeater wrote: »

You want the best value? Get your €100 & stick it on a straight forecast... KS - Denman!

Any one got any idea what price that might be, if it was to occur?

I believe if this occurs Boylesorts could lose a lotta money, on Aertel it states they will give all money back on horses that finish second in all races bar the gold cup of course, win bets win part of each way bets.

Could be worth cleaning up the bookies at the end of the day with losing second place dockets...!!!!

opr

Yeah boyles are offering that if the Gold cup is a straight Kauto beats Denman as the 1,2 they will refund all losing single win bets on the other races in the festival if your selection finishes second.

Opr

Collie D

Slightly on the topic of a KS/Denman one two. Boyles have an offer where if this happens they will refund all seconds on every other race at the festival...must keep this in mind if backing Inglis Drever tomorrow...by the way, whle I'm here, what do you think of ID's chances? I know the yard isn't in flying form at the moment but he's done the business here befoe and when the yard was going sh*t too.

Edit! Apologies, didn't realise there were two pages to this thread

mike65

Forcast betting on PP

I just had a look for a KS/D one-two but they don't give potential returns. Anyone got a solution?

Mike.

Collie D

mike65 wrote: »

Forcast betting on PP

I just had a look for a KS/D one-two but they don't give potential returns. Anyone got a solution?

Mike.

Try Ladbrokes or William Hill. They often do what they call showcast races ie letting you take a fixed price on a forecast. I assume they'll be doing it for Cheltenham

roakey

wat kinda money would u get back if you put on 50euro on denman to beat ks but for ks to come second. how would u write it and wat would u get back. cheers

Corben Dallas

In boyle sports today there offering 4/1 that denman or Kauto wont win!! Good Bet

This is for ppl who like 'value' bets, but also like to give their cash to the bookies. It also takes some of the heat out of the KS/DM bill they might be facing.

The ONLY way this could be a worthwhile bet is that both KS and DM fell.

If KS doesnt win this DM will. simple as.

Axwell

roakey wrote: »

wat kinda money would u get back if you put on 50euro on denman to beat ks but for ks to come second. how would u write it and wat would u get back. cheers

You want to place a forecast on Denman and Kauto Star

You write the horses numbers so for example

€50 Forecast 3+10

jimmyjim11

what odds would get on a reverse forecast one the 2 ??:D

cson

You can't determine the return of the forecast until the day as its based on a dividend and can't be calculated. From what I understand the tote take their % and the rest of the money is pooled and the dividend is determined based upon the number of winning forecasts.

The probability being that it will be a very low dividend due to the interest in the race. KS currently 5/4 and Denman 13/8, normally you could expect the forecast to be ~2/1 or 3/1 but such is the interest in the race, it could possibly be as low as 6/4. Its hard to predict, in the Queen Mother today I did a reverse forcast of VPU and Master Minded at 5/2 and 3/1 respectively and that paid out just over 10/1 where I would have expected it to be ~8/1.

jimmyjim11

Hmmm... cheers cson looks like ill have to go ALLIN on on denman then ..... bring kato in on his back :D.. just me thinking out loud