Live Register rises to 5.2%

pfkf1

This compares to 4.6% last year, an extra 8,500 people have signed on, this government are quickly going down in as the worst government in the history of the state, and if these figures continue we could be looking at unemployment reaching well over 6% this year.

It also the 4th consecutive increase of the live register, and this coupled with a potential 8 billion deficit this year, we are in a recession, this government have become tired and complacent, which has shown up in the health, transport, crime and now the economy.

These are very worrying times ahead, with this incompetent government in charge.

It is highest level of unemployment since 1999, and is the single highest monthly increase in the live register in absolute terms.

The Celtic Tiger is now dead.

pfkf1

pfkf1 wrote: »

if these figures continue we could be looking at unemployment reaching well over 6% this year.

WHAT ??
If THESE figures increase we will have ALOT more than just 6%!!
you would be looking at over 90,000 EXTRA unemployed

guinnessdrinker

Yep, if the live register continues to rise the gov are going to have to make some tough decisions. Increased spending in social welfare is going to lead to decreased spending in other areas such health for example.

pfkf1

Just saw on rte.ie, that in the midlands, unemployment has reached 5.9%, that means that out of every 100 people 6 are unemployed, that is far too high.

pfkf1

And I hate to say it but I left out education, where Hanafin has just announced that 100 teaching jobs are to go, due to budget cut backs.

If this continues will we see Gardai losing their jobs, nurses, this recession is becoming reality very quickly.

Benedict XVI

pfkf1 wrote: »

.

It also the 4th consecutive increase of the live register, and this coupled with a potential 8 billion deficit this year, we are in a recession, this government have become tired and complacent, which has shown up in the health, transport, crime and now the economy.

These are very worrying times ahead, with this incompetent government in charge.

All that is true but the problem is people had the chance to make a change of gov. less than a year ago and they (the people) F**ked up.

pfkf1

Benedict XVI wrote: »

All that is true but the problem is people had the chance to make a change of gov. less than a year ago and they (the people) F**ked up.

I completely agree, but as somebody who did not vote for this government, I have every right to rant about their performance, in the hope in will bring about change next time out.

And this government last time out hardly got a ringing endorsement they (FF&PDs) went from 89 seats to 80 FG&Lab went from 51 to 71 seats the fact that the green party went in with FF did not help anyones cause.

As I have pointed out before if the greens pulled out of government, the government would have had a majority of 1, it would have been a hung Dail and a new election would have been held.

O'really?

pfkf1 wrote: »

This compares to 4.6% last year, an extra 8,500 people have signed on, this government are quickly going down in as the worst government in the history of the state, and if these figures continue we could be looking at unemployment reaching well over 6% this year.

It also the 4th consecutive increase of the live register, and this coupled with a potential 8 billion deficit this year, we are in a recession, this government have become tired and complacent, which has shown up in the health, transport, crime and now the economy.

These are very worrying times ahead, with this incompetent government in charge.

It is highest level of unemployment since 1999, and is the single highest monthly increase in the live register in absolute terms.

The Celtic Tiger is now dead.

Worst government in the history of the State? You are either aged 10 or a poor historian. Perhaps the 1982 to 1987 has a better claim to that charge, given its unemployment, inflation, taxes rates. Or perhaps the one in which John Bruton's tax on children's shoes fell over, Or when Liam Cosgrave voted against his own government, Or Haughey's in 1979 to 1982, when he told correctly that we living beyond our means but did little about it.

8,500 more unemployed, in a year in which housebuilding has pracictally stagnated and where 70% of all new jobs continue ot be filled by women. 5.2%, big swing (unless you are one of the temporaily unfortunates). Do these people have to emigrate now? No most will get a job. Soon.

A recession is two consective periods of negative growth, so you are way off.

The Celtic Tiger has been dead since 2002, when our competitive position weakened, due to wage, energy and service inflation.

These lies may work on politics.ie, but here are actual figures:
http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/meb2008/March.pdf

pfkf1

The simple fact is that this government has been in charge for 11 years and we have reached unemployment figures of 1999, we are going backwards, 5.2% is not acceptable.

The health service is worse off than when this government took office, Murder rates are at civil war levels, crime has gone through the roof, we are having 100 primary school teachers being laid off because of budget cut backs, we are going to have a 8 billion deficit by the end of the year, unemployment will probably reach well over 6% and may go closer to 7%. The transport situation in this country is a mess, we have 2 trams lines in country that don't join up.

This government is a mess, name me 5 things this government has done, that will be remembered for in 30/40 years time, I can name 1 the smoking ban.

purple'n'gold

pfkf1 wrote: »

The simple fact is that this government has been in charge for 11 years and we have reached unemployment figures of 1999, we are going backwards, 5.2% is not acceptable.

The health service is worse off than when this government took office, Murder rates are at civil war levels, crime has gone through the roof, we are having 100 primary school teachers being laid off because of budget cut backs, we are going to have a 8 billion deficit by the end of the year, unemployment will probably reach well over 6% and may go closer to 7%. The transport situation in this country is a mess, we have 2 trams lines in country that don't join up.

This government is a mess, name me 5 things this government has done, that will be remembered for in 30/40 years time, I can name 1 the smoking ban.

And I will name you another, benchmarking, allowing permanent (copper fastened index linked pensionable) civil servants huge unnecessary wage rises.
Benchmarking 2 tried to close the stable door long after the horse had bolted. Typical and laughable.

The_Minister

Benedict XVI wrote: »

All that is true but the problem is people had the chance to make a change of gov. less than a year ago and they (the people) F**ked up.

If you think that a change in government would have avoided this, then you sir, are clueless.
This was coming for several months before the election, we drew the Celtic Tiger out far longer than anyone ever thought that we could, but eventually things had to slow down (it's still not a recession).

Auditor #9

pfkf1 wrote: »

And I hate to say it but I left out education, where Hanafin has just announced that 100 teaching jobs are to go, due to budget cut backs.

If this continues will we see Gardai losing their jobs, nurses, this recession is becoming reality very quickly.

This teacher laying-off business is troubling. Of all sectors of our economy we should be bolstering this one along with the 'fundamentals' - issuing notices to primary schools to lay off teachers is the wrong kind of news. It's probably more important than health - sacrilege to some maybe but there you go. It's our investment in the future after all...

But maybe someone has less dramatic news about it than appears.

O'really?

pfkf1 wrote: »

The simple fact is that this government has been in charge for 11 years and we have reached unemployment figures of 1999, we are going backwards, 5.2% is not acceptable.

The health service is worse off than when this government took office, Murder rates are at civil war levels, crime has gone through the roof, we are having 100 primary school teachers being laid off because of budget cut backs, we are going to have a 8 billion deficit by the end of the year, unemployment will probably reach well over 6% and may go closer to 7%. The transport situation in this country is a mess, we have 2 trams lines in country that don't join up.

This government is a mess, name me 5 things this government has done, that will be remembered for in 30/40 years time, I can name 1 the smoking ban.

1) The resut of those peace talks in the North wasn't a bad lasting contribution.
2) Being the governement that oversaw the end of emmigration.
3) 2.2m people being employed, with unemployment down to 4.1% at one point (ie full employment)
4) The first government to take the environment seriously.
5) Creation of SIPO, Ethics in public office legislation, end of the dual mandate.
6) Reduction in personal taxation.

5.2% unemployment is perfectly acceptable when compared to EU 15 or 27. Please get a grip on yourself. Under the last FG gov we had unemployment at 270,00 or approaching 20%.

The health service is better off now than before - hard to belive with all this negative press. Waiting lists are measured in weeks and months, not years. Transplants now occur here.

Murder rates of 70 people p.a. is very small when measured per 1,000 of the population when compared with other countries. Comparsions with the Civil War means playing the 32 county card again - want to compare rates now?

100 primary teachers being laid off? How many more have been employed since 1997. But to then compain of a budget deficeit in the next sentence deomstrates that you are more in line with Leo Vardakar then Richard Bruton.

I have yet to see a convincing case as to why the two trams lines need to join up - but that is a separte debate on its own.

There are people who will vote this year, who cannot remember a time when our soccer team was better than our rugby team, or that we exported our young people like cattle or that one's income, if one was lucky enough to have a job, was swiped out by inflation, interest rates and punitive taxes.

The problem which this government faces is the "what have they done for us lately" question. It is one of perception in the absence of a proper perspective.

meriwether

Creation of SIPO, Ethics in public office legislation, end of the dual mandate.

There's high standards in high office with this Government, no doubt.

is_that_so

O'really? wrote: »

1) The result of those peace talks in the North wasn't a bad lasting contribution.

If you assume that it was only Bertie that did it. They had a part and a creditable part but the North would have got nowhere without all of the parties.

O'really? wrote: »

2) Being the government that oversaw the end of emmigration.

They didn't oversee anything. Yet again built on foundation of the previous Labour/FG coalition which in turn was built on the foundation of Mac the knife and the Tallaght strategy.

O'really? wrote: »

3) 2.2m people being employed, with unemployment down to 4.1% at one point (ie full employment)

Again not all FF doing.

O'really? wrote: »

4) The first government to take the environment seriously.

I think you need to back this laughable comment up.

O'really? wrote: »

5) Creation of SIPO, Ethics in public office legislation, end of the dual mandate.

Creation and application are two different things.

As you say yourself it is a matter of perception and this analysis is pretty one-eyed.

O'really?

is_that_so wrote: »

If you assume that it was only Bertie that did it. They had a part and a creditable part but the North would have got nowhere without all of the parties.

They didn't oversee anything. Yet again built on foundation of the previous Labour/FG coalition which in turn was built on the foundation of Mac the knife and the Tallaght strategy.

Again not all FF doing.

I think you need to back this laughable comment up.


Creation and application are two different things.

As you say yourself it is a matter of perception and this analysis is pretty one-eyed.

I never mentioned Bertie, or that it was he alone in the multi-party talks. Interesting you attack me for something I never said. But I will leave that aside.

FG and Labour came into power in November, 1994 and remained there until the election in May, 1997. Can you please outline what decisions (bar the reduction in Corporate tax which was FF policy) which were taken in that 2 and a half years on which FF and the PDs supposidly built, which allows you give more credit to them than to FF who were in power in 18.5 of the last 20.5 years (ie the ones associated with unprecedented economic growth, end if emmigration and economically speaking full employment). Please back up this seemingly vacuous assertion.

The_Minister

is_that_so wrote: »

I think you need to back this laughable comment up.

It was the first government that the Progressive Democrats served in (IIRC twas one of their demands) that created the EPA, before that, enviornmental worry was mostly limited to spilt silage.

pfkf1

O'really? wrote: »

I never mentioned Bertie, or that it was he alone in the multi-party talks. Interesting you attack me for something I never said. But I will leave that aside.

FG and Labour came into power in November, 1994 and remained there until the election in May, 1997. Can you please outline what decisions (bar the reduction in Corporate tax which was FF policy) whcih were taken in that 2 and a half years on which FF and the PDs supposidly built, which allows who give more credit to them than to FF who were in power in 18.5 of the last 20.5 years (ie the ones associated with unprecedented economic growth, end if emmigration and economically speaking full employment). Please back up this seemingly vacuous assertion.

Fg/Lab Reduced corporations tax, they were creating 1,000 jobs a week, unemployment went from 18% in 1994 to 10% in 1997, 3rd level education was made free, which has probably had the biggest affect on the Irish economy.

We had an inflation rate of about 1%, interest rates were lower, the CAB was established, which has been on of the most successful weapons used to attack criminals since the foundation of the state.

The Rainbow government also delivered the first budget surplus for the first time in about 30 years.

The simple fact is that FF came to power with the support of Inds and PDs in 1997, and took up from where the Rainbow coalition left off, and carried the success through until 2002, when we were on of the biggest exporters in the world, the government since then has relied on consumer spending and house building to prop up the economy, this was short sighted because it was never sustainable, and Now we have inflation running at about 5% for the last 12-15 months, unemployment highest since 1999, the biggest ever increase of the live register, the health service in a shambles, the transport situation in a mess, crime out of control, cut backs in education(the key area where we should be investing) pathetic braodband coverage, the general economy in a shambles. Just to indicate how far off the current minister was with his estimates only 2 months ago, if he added 5+5 he would 16, his estimates are 60% off target.

The Northern Ireland yes Ahern can claim credit, but this is something that had about 30 years of foundation before it eventually got done, please remember that it was FF who voted against the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985.

FF and this government are one which has no values, and no vision for this country, they aren't planning ahead for 10-15 years down the line, they aren't even planning at all.

And as for you remark the setting up of the SIPO, thats all very well and good, but FF are hardly going to take credit or give lectures about holding high standards in high office after all they are the party of, Haughey, Burke, Flynn, Lawlor, Cooper-Flynn, Collins, Ahern and so on.

gurramok

O'really? wrote: »

Worst government in the history of the State? You are either aged 10 or a poor historian. Perhaps the 1982 to 1987 has a better claim to that charge, given its unemployment, inflation, taxes rates. Or perhaps the one in which John Bruton's tax on children's shoes fell over, Or when Liam Cosgrave voted against his own government, Or Haughey's in 1979 to 1982, when he told correctly that we living beyond our means but did little about it.

Agree, 80's was hell of alot worse, lets hope it does not return there.

O'really? wrote: »

8,500 more unemployed, in a year in which housebuilding has pracictally stagnated and where 70% of all new jobs continue ot be filled by women. 5.2%, big swing (unless you are one of the temporaily unfortunates). Do these people have to emigrate now? No most will get a job. Soon.

Majority of jobs created last year were part-time and most were filled by women and immigration.
At least 60,000 oversupply of builders in construction nevermind mentioning related disciplines, it ain't a co-incidence 13,000 males and only over 1000 females were part of the increase in a year.
Expect alot more unemployment as the housing crash unravels, we'll hit 200,000 pretty soon.

O'really? wrote: »

A recession is two consective periods of negative growth, so you are way off.

May happen this year if not already, we wait and see.[/QUOTE]

And lastly..

O'really? wrote: »

2) Being the governement that oversaw the end of emmigration.

Emigration was 42,000 last year.

ballooba

pfkf1 wrote: »

The simple fact is that this government has been in charge for 11 years and we have reached unemployment figures of 1999, we are going backwards, 5.2% is not acceptable.

See Balance of Trade figures. They are even worse, 1998 levels.

is_that_so

O'really? wrote: »

I never mentioned Bertie, or that it was he alone in the multi-party talks. Interesting you attack me for something I never said. But I will leave that aside.

FG and Labour came into power in November, 1994 and remained there until the election in May, 1997. Can you please outline what decisions (bar the reduction in Corporate tax which was FF policy) which were taken in that 2 and a half years on which FF and the PDs supposidly built, which allows you give more credit to them than to FF who were in power in 18.5 of the last 20.5 years (ie the ones associated with unprecedented economic growth, end if emmigration and economically speaking full employment). Please back up this seemingly vacuous assertion.

Incompetence seems to be the extent of what the current incumbents are capable of, a few exceptions aside.

As to your comments I was merely responding to your own blinkered list which tbh might as well be straight out of a manifesto. IMO such lists are irrelevancies that just obscure the current disturbing ineptitude and lack of ability within the government.

Zombrex

pfkf1 wrote: »

It is highest level of unemployment since 1999, and is the single highest monthly increase in the live register in absolute terms.

The Celtic Tiger is now dead.

The Live Register doesn't measure unemployment (it even says it on the report), it measure people claiming benefits. This includes people claiming carriers allowances etc. The unemployment rate assessed from the Live Register report (currently at 5.2%) is simply an estimate.

The CSO "Quarterly National Household Survey" is the actual official measurement of unemployment level in Ireland.

As of Nov 2007 it is at 4.5%, up 0.3% from that time last year of 4.2%.

Over the last few years the unemployment rate has been relatively static, fluctuation from 4.2% to 4.9% depending on the time of the year.

A rise above 5 percent would be interesting, it has been a while since unemployment in Feb has been that high (a rise above 5% over the last few years has only taken place during the summer months) Eventually though, as in all economies, this level will rise, the world is in an economic slow down. But I don't think it is time to panic quite yet. I would wait until the official QNHS for this quarter which will give a more accurate assessment of the unemployment level.

Benedict XVI

The_Minister wrote: »

If you think that a change in government would have avoided this, then you sir, are clueless..

You are missing my point.

I am saying that there is no use in complaining about a Gov that the country re-elected less that a year ago.

Like closing the barn door after the horse has bolted

O'really?

is_that_so wrote: »

Incompetence seems to be the extent of what the current incumbents are capable of, a few exceptions aside.

As to your comments I was merely responding to your own blinkered list which tbh might as well be straight out of a manifesto. IMO such lists are irrelevancies that just obscure the current disturbing ineptitude and lack of ability within the government.

I was also just answering PFK1's question - what would this government be remembered for in 30/40 years. I would agree tough that such lists are a turn off at best, and an over simplication of complex issues. Which also applies to rants.

The above question, on the decisions of what created the Celtic Tiger, stem from the fact that FG people always claim credit for it because if a 2.5 years in power. 2.5 out of the last 21 years does not a good economic record make. (Labour could argue a greater contribution, since they were there in the post Mac the knife/PD regime, learnt from it and applied it in finance through Ruairi Quinn (ie he didn't mess it up).

What did Labour and FG decide to do between Nov 1994 to May 1997? The answer I have so far is Free 3rd level education. Anyone who believes that this decision (effectivley a subsidy of private secondary education) made the slightest difference to the economic development has read too amy manifestos for their own good.

Thr 1% inflation, surplus budget and corporate tax were consequences, effets and follow-through of the previous 7 years. FG or Labour can get little credit for this. Certianly not enough to bolster their paternity claim for the Celtci Tiger.

As for the Rainbow government creating 1,000 jobs a week, that is complete nonsence, the only jobs which that government created was for its own programme managers. Governments do not create jobs (save for the public sector) but do allow the economic conditions exist for job creation. Last year, 70,000 new jobs were created, bringing the total to 2.186m. That says more than a construction downturn blip for one month.

Other points:
- the 42,00 emigrants include many (7,000 I think) travelling to Eastern Europe (I wonder why they should choose there, perhaps it was from whence they came).

[Edit: 1) apologies for the spelling errors 2) Can anyone guess who I was on p.ie?]

guinnessdrinker

O'really? wrote: »

What did Labour and FG decide to do between Nov 1994 to May 1997? The answer I have so far is Free 3rd level education. Anyone who believes that this decision (effectivley a subsidy of private secondary education) made the slightest difference to the economic development has read too amy manifestos for their own good.

On this point I would argue that free third level education gave rise to increased numbers pursuing third level education. This in turn would have led to Ireland being regarded as a well educated country which (apart from the low corporation tax) is one of the reasons for Irelands comparativly high levels of foreign direct investment.

gurramok

O'really? wrote: »

Governments do not create jobs (save for the public sector) but do allow the economic conditions exist for job creation. Last year, 70,000 new jobs were created, bringing the total to 2.186m. That says more than a construction downturn blip for one month.

From http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/qnhs.pdf , you glossed over the aspects of the jobs.

66,800 jobs totally created, of these only 30,300 were FULL-TIME jobs. DO we know how many were public sector/construction related?
Going on 2006 stats, majority in that yr were from those sectors

O'really? wrote: »

Other points:
- the 42,00 emigrants include many (7,000 I think) travelling to Eastern Europe (I wonder why they should choose there, perhaps it was from whence they came).

Link for this 7000?

From finfacts, http://www.cso.ie/newsevents/pr_qnhsq42007.htm

23% GNP depend on construction, 416,000 jobs are dependent on the construction sector.
Haven't even mentioned the US economy factor with slide in the dollar affecting tourism here yet!

It doesn't take a genius to figure out we're in big trouble with a housing crash domestically underway.

pfkf1

O'really? wrote: »

[Edit: 1) apologies for the spelling errors 2) Can anyone guess who I was on p.ie?]

Not too sure, I thought you may have been tonys, but your not that offensive, you are not Ard-Taoiseach cause he doesn't defend the government that much, so I would say FutureTaoiseach.

O'really?

gurramok wrote: »

From http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/qnhs.pdf , you glossed over the aspects of the jobs.

66,800 jobs totally created, of these only 30,300 were FULL-TIME jobs. DO we know how many were public sector/construction related?
Going on 2006 stats, majority in that yr were from those sectors



Link for this 7000?

From finfacts, http://www.cso.ie/newsevents/pr_qnhsq42007.htm

23% GNP depend on construction, 416,000 jobs are dependent on the construction sector.
Haven't even mentioned the US economy factor with slide in the dollar affecting tourism here yet!

It doesn't take a genius to figure out we're in big trouble with a housing crash domestically underway.

From the cso site cited:

Employment grows by 3.2%

There were 2,138,900 persons in employment in the fourth quarter of 2007, representing an increase of 66,800 or 3.2% in the year. This compares to an annual growth rate of 3.3% in the previous quarter and to a rate of 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2006. The increase of 45,800 (+5.2%) in female employment represented almost 69% of the total increase in employment, with male employment increasing by 21,000 (+1.8%).


At a time of construction stagnation, a lower rate of positive growth, startung from a high base that is pretty good.

I'm sure PFPK1 and others will find a way of linking the decline of the Dollar, poor tourist season (US elections, price of oil) on the government too.

The 23% of GNP dependant is a figure I have found doubtful. I sumise that if true, that residential property accounts for less than 12% at most, sureley the rollout of the NDP (albeit less labour intensive) is a good economic strategy. Pump in capital investement in a downturn.

(sorry can'r find link to the 42,000 emigrants or the Eastern European componant, just my memory.)
(I was not Ard-T, or F-t, I thought the obessive use of lists and use of the letters O and R would give it away. Clearly my writing technique is just not individual nor expressive enough - I suppose I will postpone my entry into journalism.)

ballooba

O'really? wrote: »

<snip>There were 2,138,900 persons in employment in the fourth quarter of 2007, representing an increase of 66,800 or 3.2% in the year.<snip>

Those figures are irrelevant. 80,000 people enter the worforce each year. We need total employment to increase by 80,000 plus just to keep our heads above water.

pfkf1

Wicknight wrote: »

The Live Register doesn't measure unemployment (it even says it on the report), it measure people claiming benefits. This includes people claiming carriers allowances etc. The unemployment rate assessed from the Live Register report (currently at 5.2%) is simply an estimate.

The CSO "Quarterly National Household Survey" is the actual official measurement of unemployment level in Ireland.

As of Nov 2007 it is at 4.5%, up 0.3% from that time last year of 4.2%.

Over the last few years the unemployment rate has been relatively static, fluctuation from 4.2% to 4.9% depending on the time of the year.

A rise above 5 percent would be interesting, it has been a while since unemployment in Feb has been that high (a rise above 5% over the last few years has only taken place during the summer months) Eventually though, as in all economies, this level will rise, the world is in an economic slow down. But I don't think it is time to panic quite yet. I would wait until the official QNHS for this quarter which will give a more accurate assessment of the unemployment level.

That may be the case, however, it is preferable to keep the live register as low as possible, especially in a year where we are heading for a 8 billion deficit, we can't afford to pay out that level of benefits and hope to maintain our economic growth and budget surpluses. We can also pretty much kiss goodbye most of Transport 21, (Which Dempsey said during the week that none of the projects will come in on time, and we all know that if they dont come in on time, they don't come in on budget.)

It is simply not good news to have a record increase in the live register 8,500 people claiming benefits, 5.2% the highest since 1999, this coupled with the fact we are dealing with a minister for Finance who estimates are 60% off target. This year when he gets his ministerial pay increase, he should buy himself a new calculator.

gurramok

O'really? wrote: »

From the cso site cited:

Employment grows by 3.2%

Correct. Part-time jobs formed the majority of them

O'really? wrote: »

At a time of construction stagnation, a lower rate of positive growth, startung from a high base that is pretty good.

Where you getting this 'construction stagnation' from?

Its plummeting, have you not seen the 60odd% decline in housing starts since May '07?
It takes average 18months to build houses, expect more rises this year in unemployment as the boom housing starts wear off.

O'really? wrote: »

I'm sure PFPK1 and others will find a way of linking the decline of the Dollar, poor tourist season (US elections, price of oil) on the government too.

Yes, because they are right. FF led us into the euro as it suited us at the time with cheap money and high dollar (remember it was parity with euro)?.

We cannot set our own interest rates to get a weaker currency in use, hence the tables have turned, understand?

O'really? wrote: »

The 23% of GNP dependant is a figure I have found doubtful. I sumise that if true, that residential property accounts for less than 12% at most, sureley the rollout of the NDP (albeit less labour intensive) is a good economic strategy. Pump in capital investement in a downturn.

Commercial is falling fast as well, that may be news to you!

Problem with NDP, you can't employ brickies, plumbers, plasterers, electricians en masse into roads hence the recent jump in unemployment.
Most of these guys have junior cert level education (60,000 reported recently) and are not immediately employable elsewhere unless they emigrate or go on the dole.

House building is labour intensive, roads are not.

O'really? wrote: »

(sorry can'r find link to the 42,000 emigrants or the Eastern European componant, just my memory.)

If it is 7000, it shows that Ireland is starting to become an unattractive place for immigrants nevermind locals.

pfkf1

Things don't seem to be getting any better, along with 100 primary school teaching jobs to go due to cut backs, American manufacturing company symantec, is reviewing 150 jobs at their plant in Blanchardstown, a decision will be made next week, also another 40 jobs have gone from Voice Newspaper Group who have closed down most of their circulation in Ireland.

Victor

pfkf1 wrote: »

Just saw on rte.ie, that in the midlands, unemployment has reached 5.9%, that means that out of every 100 people 6 are unemployed, that is far too high.

No, its would be 6 out of every 100 workers unemployed, but thank you for the Indo-style maths.

pfkf1 wrote: »

If this continues will we see Gardai losing their jobs, nurses, this recession is becoming reality very quickly.

When was the last time you saw a Garda being made redundant?

ballooba wrote: »

Those figures are irrelevant. 80,000 people enter the worforce each year. We need total employment to increase by 80,000 plus just to keep our heads above water.

You are forgetting that 30,000-40,000 people retire every year.

pfkf1

Victor wrote: »

No, its would be 6 out of every 100 workers unemployed, but thank you for the Indo-style maths.When was the last time you saw a Garda being made redundant?

First point, you are correct, but you got my point.

But when was the last time Teachers were sacked, All I'm asking will other front line staff be sacked to make up for this governments poor handling of the economy, I'm just saying that this governments response to a big downturn in the economy is to get rid of front line staff. All I asked was will it come to this? The example of the Gardai may be a little extreme, but my point was that we are already seeing the results of a potential 8 billion deficit and unemployment reaching over 6%.

Remember the government said only 2 months ago that by the end of year we would have 5.6% unemployment, we already have 5.2%, what if he 60% off like he was for the deficit that would mean we could see unemployment hit close to 8% he (Cowen) is rapidly going down as the worst minister for Finance in the history of the state.

ballooba

Victor wrote: »

You are forgetting that 30,000-40,000 people retire every year.

That's accounted for.

Person age 20 - 64 By Year:
2003 2,395,500 (53,400 increase)
2004 2,448,900 (71,800 increase)
2005 2,520,700 (84,800 increase)
2006 2,605,500

Victor

ballooba wrote: »

That's accounted for.

Person age 20 - 64 By Year:
2003 2,395,500 (53,400 increase)
2004 2,448,900 (71,800 increase)
2005 2,520,700 (84,800 increase)
2006 2,605,500

Hmmm, slightly different as it includes immigration. The number of school / college leavers is lower.

Raintonite

These are sort of strange times indeed. I remember last summer as rumblings began to emerge in the property market that many people claimed property prices never go down or at worst we might see a little stagnation before the boom took off in full flight some time in 2008. Now I'm reading posts where the unemployemnt figures are seen a temporary blips or something not really relevant to ongoing economic progress of the country. More messages of: "don't worry, be happy." Like everyone else, I don't want to see a recession. I am not, however, willing to sit back and ignore what looks likely to be a large budget deficit this year, a gloomy jobs market, tight credit and increasing base costs. The average punter needs to be informed about the situation in order to make budgetary plans but it seems there is a signficant proportion of the Irish population who wish to perpetuate a myth that everyone and everything will be just fine. It seems that there is a vicarious wish by vested interests to put a good spin on any news in order to lure the average sucker into taking on board more debt so that the vested interests will still see a good profit from their various business ventures. I just wonder how many suckers there are in Ireland?

Moriarty

Perception has a lot to do with how hard a slowdown this will be Raintonite. If everyone is told that a recession is coming and to batten down the hatches it will be a lot more severe for everyone as confidence in the economy will be lost.

pfkf1

Moriarty wrote: »

Perception has a lot to do with how hard a slowdown this will be Raintonite. If everyone is told that a recession is coming and to batten down the hatches it will be a lot more severe for everyone as confidence in the economy will be lost.

While that is true, people aren't stupid and you can see consumer confidence has gone way down, this can be seen by the way VAT returns have come nowhere near expectation, and by shouting recession from the rooftops will only ignite the situation, the fact remains that people seem to be aware of the fact that the economy is up the stream without a paddle.

Moriarty

I'd agree that people are aware we're not in boom-time any longer but I don't think it's fair to say that the majority, or even a sizeable minority, believe we're in recession. People realise credit isn't as easy to get these days, but it's still pretty readily available by historic standards.

Personally, I don't think it'll be as bad as it was in 2000/2001, nevermind anything more serious. I've heard a few forecasts over the past week or two saying that growth is expected to increase again towards the end of the year.

Zombrex

pfkf1 wrote: »

That may be the case, however, it is preferable to keep the live register as low as possible, especially in a year where we are heading for a 8 billion deficit, we can't afford to pay out that level of benefits and hope to maintain our economic growth and budget surpluses.

Well it is more accurate to say that it is necessary to keep the live register as low as it needs to be. Waste is not good, but at the same time the live register serves a valuable function. For example I had a friend who had to mind her mum full time for a while after she had a stroke. As far as I know she would be counted on the live register full time, and the benefits she got where huge help to her.

pfkf1 wrote: »

It is simply not good news to have a record increase in the live register 8,500 people claiming benefits, 5.2% the highest since 1999

Its the highest since 1999 in Febuary, the live register has crept above 5 before, but normally in summer months. It is a more of a signalling that the economy is turning down.

Don't get me wrong, I think the current government are a pack of idiots, my point is simply that it is more productive to discuss these figures with a clear head.

silverharp

it's text book end of bubble consequences. You can't have the biggest property bubble in history without having a considerable hangover. The trick will be to keep taxes steady, don't start borrowing, thankfully they cant go above 3% and let the market sort it out. Given that most of Europe is in a different part of the cycle there won't be a collapse of multinationals here etc. so its not the end of the world unless you are selling Spanish property to paddies!

Fursey

Benedict XVI wrote: »

All that is true but the problem is people had the chance to make a change of gov. less than a year ago and they (the people) F**ked up.

Papa - a change of Government would not have made much difference, FF & FG have much the same economic policies and many of the storms coming our way this year are beyond our ability to influence.

The rise in the price of Oil, the decline of the Dollar and to a lesser extent Sterling is out of our control.

But all the indicators are that 2008 will be the worst year for the Irish Economy since the early 1990's.

Raintonite

Moriarty wrote: »

I'd agree that people are aware we're not in boom-time any longer but I don't think it's fair to say that the majority, or even a sizeable minority, believe we're in recession. People realise credit isn't as easy to get these days, but it's still pretty readily available by historic standards.

Personally, I don't think it'll be as bad as it was in 2000/2001, nevermind anything more serious. I've heard a few forecasts over the past week or two saying that growth is expected to increase again towards the end of the year.

I know that sentiment plays a large part in our demand lead economy. But it is the very reason that credit is so readily available, although not as ultra-cheap as before, that is the root casue of our problems imo. It is somehow deemed patriotic to take on huge individual (or family) debt burdens so that manufacturing and service providers can make whopping great profits. Imo, we need to begin to educate people about the long term consequences of huge debt burdens. These mountainous debt burdens are not only going to hinder the present generation but generations to come. We have become so used to consuming for the moment we seem to have forgotten about the future. The political establishment, imo, has nutured this economic climate.

As far as the Irish economy beginning to expand again at year end, I just cannot agree with this sentiment. I view as the major obstacles to Irish economic expansion:

1. Higher credit costs and tougher lending criteria
2. Contraction of the construction industry and ancilliary services
3. The US recession (c. 90,000 Irish employees of US multinationals).
The fact that the US has for the first time in modern history become
a debtor nation. It income no longer meets its total debt obligations.
4. Higher energy costs (the IEA estimates 1 trillions dollars need to be
spent globally to satisfy growing demand. Nowhere near this
investment is taking place. There is a very real perception that the
middle east just doesn't having the required pumping capacity to meet
growing demand. Green energy sources are more expensive than
traditonal sources.
5. The base line price increases in other commodities
6. The probability that China will no longer be able to export price
deflation through cheap goods.

While Ireland is indeed better place than in the past to weather this storm, I just can't help thinking that govermental policy, especially in the last five years, has encouraged the demand side our economy through debt accumulation while being somewhat ineffective in creating a decent supply side environment. It was just too easy to ride back into power on the perception that asset prices and wages always go up and never go down.

pfkf1

Wicknight wrote: »

Well it is more accurate to say that it is necessary to keep the live register as low as it needs to be. Waste is not good, but at the same time the live register serves a valuable function. For example I had a friend who had to mind her mum full time for a while after she had a stroke. As far as I know she would be counted on the live register full time, and the benefits she got where huge help to her.


Its the highest since 1999 in Febuary, the live register has crept above 5 before, but normally in summer months. It is a more of a signalling that the economy is turning down.

Don't get me wrong, I think the current government are a pack of idiots, my point is simply that it is more productive to discuss these figures with a clear head.

I absolutely agree that the live register is important for people who are made redundant or who fall ill suddenly, it is a fantastic tool for that.

However I have to say you're incorrect about the live register going above 5% before according to the cso.ie, from their publications it certainly hasn't happened since before 2002, and the only reason why I can't say further back is because they don't have the figures going back further in their recent publication.

And the QNHS hasn't gone above 5% since the 4thQ in 1999, we have a live register of over 5% for the last 2 months now, and the 4thQ of 2007 was 4.6%, so the trend would indicate that we will reach over 5% in the 1st quarter of 2008.

EDIT: you can see from this link that the last time the live register went above 5% was November 1999, it is the highest the live register has been since August 1999. And if we were to go above 6% this year which is a real possibility it would be the first time that had happened since December 1998.
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/2004/lregan_jan2004.pdf

ballooba

Victor wrote: »

Hmmm, slightly different as it includes immigration. The number of school / college leavers is lower.

We're talking about workforce growth.;)

berliner

could there be too many immigrants in Ireland?187,900 on the dole.....Weird country.

ballooba

berliner wrote: »

could there be too many immigrants in Ireland?187,900 on the dole.....Weird country.

A good portion of those are people who don't want to work. They probably give out about d'immigrants too, taking the jobs they'd never do.

Moriarty

Moriarty wrote: »

Perception has a lot to do with how hard a slowdown this will be Raintonite. If everyone is told that a recession is coming and to batten down the hatches it will be a lot more severe for everyone as confidence in the economy will be lost.

Post of the thread tbh.
Perception mostly is what has slowed this economy down but not by much.
I had two chaps out to me yesterday wanting to take my number so they could tell the dole office that they looked for work from me.They were locals by the way.
I reported them.

As regards the rest of the contributions on this thread,alls that is missing is the cries of "where were you in 1922"..

It's interesting but regretfull to see this new breed of civil war politics in this day and age.

ballooba

Bertie Ahern in Irish Times wrote:

"Employment is still being generated. It's going to be a hard year, and we need to keep working hard at it."

Bertie spins this line over and over again. He just keeps going on about how many jobs we are creating. It's great that we are still creating more jobs than we are losing. Really it is. It means absolutely nothing though.

Circa 85,000 people joined the workforce in 2005, and circa 75,000 the year before. (Latest figures) Bertie's statements would seem to imply a breakeven point where job creation equals job losses. That is not the breakeven point.

If we are only creating as many jobs as we are losing then there are no jobs for new entrants to the job market. This includes immigrants and those coming of age and is offset by those emmigrating and those retiring.

ballooba

Deleted User wrote: »

Perception mostly is what has slowed this economy down but not by much.

Indeed. The perception that mortgage repayments kept going up. Blind confidence is not much good when you are crippled with mortgage repayments. The end of cheap credit is what has brought about this situation in Ireland. The factors are largely internal.