Best way's to benfit from a plummet in the Dollar??

paddyman

Hey,

As the title suggests. If one believed the dollar is facing collapse within the next year what would be the best ways to profit from this plummet in the dollar? I see interest rates rising hard in the U.S so would want no borrowings in U.S dollar either.

Gold is generally taught of as the safety net in bad times but is fairly highly priced at the moment so not into that.

Would it be to wait until it has dropped and then buy dollars or invest in property ETC there when you perceive its at its bottom?

I do feel the euro would remain strong and grow well and at the moment everything i have is in property(long term)/high interest savings Acc (Euro). Maybe best to leave it as is it for now?

What would peoples opinion's be?

Clytus

Why do you reckon a rising in US interest rates?...and where does your idea of a collapse in the US$ come from?

mike65

I thought the dollar had collapsed It could go further if the sub-prime fallout doesn't wash through the banking system smoothly and interest rates are cut back to the bone as recession digs in.

Mike.

chump

spreadbetting

paddyman

Well even without the sub-prime my other reason for the collapse of the US$ is i believe were coming to an end of the hemorrhaging of the dollar, the U.S's biggest export to the world. There running deficits of hundreds of billion's a year equating to trillions at this stage. The only reason they have got away with this is printing dollars like there was no tomorrow because countries needed to buy them for purchasing petroleum products. This has propped up the currency with trillions of dollars been held all over the world.

OPEC are already openly discussing stopping using the dollar as the sole oil trading currency and the imminent launch of the Iranian oil bourse, countries tired of having to buy and hold dollars wont need to any more. When this excess currency hits the markets the dollar will plummet.

I feel they will do everything they will have to do to restrengthening the dollar including interest rate hikes.

So im looking into ways on how to profit from it and want to hear as many opinions to examine as possible.

kaiser sauze

paddyman wrote: »

Well even without the sub-prime my other reason for the collapse of the US$ is i believe were coming to an end of the hemorrhaging of the dollar, the U.S's biggest export to the world. There running deficits of hundreds of billion's a year equating to trillions at this stage. The only reason they have got away with this is printing dollars like there was no tomorrow because countries needed to buy them for purchasing petroleum products. This has propped up the currency with trillions of dollars been held all over the world.

OPEC are already openly discussing stopping using the dollar as the sole oil trading currency and the imminent launch of the Iranian oil bourse, countries tired of having to buy and hold dollars wont need to any more. When this excess currency hits the markets the dollar will plummet.

I feel they will do everything they will have to do to restrengthening the dollar including interest rate hikes.

So im looking into ways on how to profit from it and want to hear as many opinions to examine as possible.

There has been talks about that for many years, Iran has openly declared its intent to use the Euro.

The reality is that the following countries are dependent on the US for a significant portion of their business: Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. Not only is the US a large customer, the US also invests heavily in all of the above countries.

This is a boat that they might not be so eager to rock. Iran has its issues with the US, in general, and these are the major factor in Ahmadinejad's rhetoric. And at the moment anyway, it's all rhetoric.

OPEC is actually a fairly democratic organisation, in the sense that consensus is reached on all policy.

Clytus

The Feds cutting of interest rates is only a temporary adjustment to try and stave off a recession,and its also the reason for the slump in the value of the dollar. When rates start to rise again youll see an increasing value.

Iv heard some commentators suggest theres about 6-8 months left in the sub-prime/credit crunch issue....so maybe its a good time to start gathering up some of the banking shares i.e BOI €9.20.

silverharp

paddyman wrote: »

Hey,

As the title suggests. If one believed the dollar is facing collapse within the next year what would be the best ways to profit from this plummet in the dollar? I see interest rates rising hard in the U.S so would want no borrowings in U.S dollar either.

Gold is generally taught of as the safety net in bad times but is fairly highly priced at the moment so not into that.

Would it be to wait until it has dropped and then buy dollars or invest in property ETC there when you perceive its at its bottom?

I do feel the euro would remain strong and grow well and at the moment everything i have is in property(long term)/high interest savings Acc (Euro). Maybe best to leave it as is it for now?

What would peoples opinion's be?

if you thought that the dollar was going down from here then gold would be a good investment, I bought gold and silver in 04 but am in the process of selling as I have made 200/300% gain since 04 and I feel the dollar is due a bounce here and that most commodities will be hit in the first half of the year however given that everyone is bearish on the dollar, the contrary position to take would be to buy the dollar with expensive euros. In aggregate the long term future of the euro is no better then then the dollar.

Goodluck2me

The likelihood of the dollar falling is quite relative to how its economy begins to save in the future, and also begin to buy less products from abroad.
As America is, historically, a place with a high proportion of immigrants, who have a penchant for their home country`s goods, this isn`t looking likely.
They need $3bn a day to sustain the current deficit that they have, and this has been supported by huge investment in the capital a/c.
If the middle east begin to lose interest, and Saudi Arabia have already talked of de-pegging, then it would, as mentioned here before have disasterous consequences for the dollar, as that much-needed capital would all of a sudden be lacking.

I think its highly unlikely that it would happen, its just a possibilty, and if and when it does the damage will of course be done before you get a chance to profit from it.

portomar

myself and DAVEIRL have had lengthy discussions on the dollar as oil money/reserve money and another thread so i wont rehash, but my view is bearish dollar, and if you want exposure to it, spreadbetting is the way to go.

chump

Clytus wrote: »

The Feds cutting of interest rates is only a temporary adjustment to try and stave off a recession,and its also the reason for the slump in the value of the dollar. When rates start to rise again youll see an increasing value.

Iv heard some commentators suggest theres about 6-8 months left in the sub-prime/credit crunch issue....so maybe its a good time to start gathering up some of the banking shares i.e BOI €9.20.

Well didn't the US$ strengthen by a few tics since the rates have been cut - that is what surprised me. It's obviously a sentiment that it will rescue their economy which will strengthen the currency.

I personally can't see past a weaker dollar medium term.

paddyman

http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=163455

The Iranian's have launched there oil bourse today. As of yet they haven't opened trading in Euro, just there own.