My Staking & Selection System

nice1franko

It's based on the Martingale System (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28betting_system%29). See also statistics http://www.adrianmassey.com/fav/index.php.

Summary:
1) aim to win a small set small amount plus previous loss on any single race
2) you need relatively large bank
3) it takes time because you need to identify all suitable races and stake before each one

The two problems I have with it is being able to handle the downswings and finding the time to follow it. The spreadsheet could do with a few improvements too.

Anyway, am I thinking pure shyte or what? Any thoughts or experience with similar systems?

masterK

The biggest one is whether you have the banl or balls to manage a long losing run of favourites. There have been a some long ones, check out the last post below:
http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?t=1394&highlight=losing+favourite

Also I'd include Sellers, the strike rate of favourites in sellers in quite high.

nice1franko

Balls. That's sobering. I really hadn't anticipated losing streaks that bad.

That said, I think this system might fare a bit better since the shortest we can back is 1.8 and the fact that we're not going with every fav - only favs that have been napped by two or more sources.

Still, that's sobering alright.

I think we're going to need a bigger tank.

mickc

There was an interesting loss chasing system backing Tony Mccoy before (it may even have been MasterK) that was similar to this. if i remember correctly some bets/losing streaks did get quite big.

Ruby Walsh would be a good candidate for a similar program. wouldnt do it myself though.

mickc

found the thread

it was WB who tried it

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055006268

his final stats were
Total profit banked: € 270
Number of bets:101
Winning bets:27
Strike Rate: 26.73%
Highest loss chased : €590.62
Highest Stake: €1501.55
Longest Losing run: 18 losers

nice1franko

Yeah, it's a slippery slope.

I wouldn't be into chasing a jockey though. The strike rate is going to be lower which means the swings are going to be more drastic which means your brow will sweat more profusely, the ticker palpitate more wildly, and so on.

But, that's exactly why the staking sytem alone isn't good enough - it has to be married to a selection system where the horse has, on average, more than a 35% chance. Any less than that the swings are just too severe.

I've read before that one time some scientiest did 16 (or 17) coin flips in a row with the same result. If that were to happen, and we were only looking to win 1 euro, we'd have needed about 65k in the bank.

What if we were to start at, say 200, and when/if we got to a certain level, say 400, we banked it and started again at 200. If you lose your 200, you start again with 200. That insulates you from horrible downswings although takes away from the main benefit of the system (i.e. one win and you're up).

I'm no number guru, unfortunately. Would doing that completely break the system?