The Dollar

a147pro

Anyone looking to cash out lately will have noticed that the dollar is shockingly low against the Euro (about 10 less Euro cent per dollar than last time I cashed out!).

As such;

1. Does anyone have any idea if, when and why its likely to pick up? I can only imagine election uncertainty, the position in Iraq and Pakistan is only going to make it worse for the next year.

2. Am I better off waiting or withdrawing now and putting it in a high interest account (i.e. is the dollar likely to rise more than 4 per cent against the Euro over the course of the next year?

3. Is currency trading +EV to poker and potentially more skillful / interesting???!!??

Macspower

still on it's way down.. hasn't hit rock bottom yet

Mellor

a147pro wrote: »

3. Is currency trading +EV to poker and potentially more skillful / interesting???!!??

Its certainly +EV. Banks and similar buy and sell at a different rate, so its hard to make money unless you predict big jumps,
but casino software buys/sells at one rate, If you have a client such as PPP, you can move funds from euro (sportsbook) to dollar (poker) easily and if you got the dollars out before they fell you could of made a tidy sum,

valor

the dollar is costing me a ****ing fortune, **** bush

Van Dice

valor wrote: »

the dollar is costing me a ****ing fortune, **** bush

+1

just need something to happen to cripple the euro

Mr.Plough

withdrew most of br yesterday. left like 10 buyins online. not sure what to do with it tbh. keep it on moneybookers i suppose

Zorba

U can expect the eur and most currencies to appreciate against the dollar this yr because of a dovish federal reserve, ie they want to lower rates and a hawkish euro central bank who have continually stated that they have no problems raising rates to tackle inflation.

Van Dice

a147pro wrote: »

1. Does anyone have any idea if, when and why its likely to pick up? I can only imagine election uncertainty, the position in Iraq and Pakistan is only going to make it worse for the next year.

2. Am I better off waiting or withdrawing now and putting it in a high interest account (i.e. is the dollar likely to rise more than 4 per cent against the Euro over the course of the next year?

all available info is factored into the forex futures market, that's the best estimate

a147pro wrote: »

3. Is currency trading +EV to poker

no

a147pro wrote: »

potentially more skillful / interesting???!!??

potentially more interesting, i guess so. more skilful, almost certainly

a147pro

Zorba wrote: »

U can expect the eur and most currencies to appreciate against the dollar this yr because of a dovish federal reserve, ie they want to lower rates and a hawkish euro central bank who have continually stated that they have no problems raising rates to tackle inflation.

"appreciate"? answer is yes I will make 5% keeping dollars or no

Van Dice

all available info is factored into the forex futures market, that's the best estimate

Where can I get this info?

thanks lads

RoundTower

this site is a great starting point to find that out.

SuperHans

Does anyone know of a way to actively hedge their dollar exposure at a low cost? I'm all into swotting up on currency exchanges, but I don't really have the time or the patience and would like to not have to worry about exchange rates at all.

Slash/ED

So it's a good idea to transfer your money into euros after every session basically?

HiCloy

a147pro wrote: »

1. Does anyone have any idea if, when and why its likely to pick up? I can only imagine election uncertainty, the position in Iraq and Pakistan is only going to make it worse for the next year.

The main thing that will make it worse is if the Fed cuts rates by >0.5% at or before their next meeting on January 30th. It will also not help if the ECB increases rates to prevent inflation.

2. Am I better off waiting or withdrawing now and putting it in a high interest account (i.e. is the dollar likely to rise more than 4 per cent against the Euro over the course of the next year?

Well leaving a lot of money in a non-interest bearing poker account def isn't good!

3. Is currency trading +EV

Hugely so if you're a commercial bank/airport bureau de change sitting therre with a 10% bid/offer spread and charges on top. Otherwise, probably not unless you really know what you're doing.

Does anyone know of a way to actively hedge their dollar exposure at a low cost?

You could do spread betting on it through delta index or similar, but you'd almost certainly be better off just not keeping a lot of dollars lying around

ianmc38

I changed my bankroll on Carlos into euros the other day when 1 euro was = 1.462 dollars. Todays rate is €1=$1.484 so I've made over $1k by changing over.

Zorba

a147pro wrote: »

"appreciate"? answer is yes I will make 5% keeping dollars or no

Van Dice

all available info is factored into the forex futures market, that's the best estimate

Where can I get this info?

thanks lads

The dollar is going down, keep dollars and u will loose money, better switching to euros. U could open an account with a forex broker and just bet on interest bearing currencies if u want to make money, but if the currencies go against u, u will loose more than the interest u earn !

www.dailyfx.com is a good place to keep track of currencies and interest rate movements

Macspower

ianmc38 wrote: »

I changed my bankroll on Carlos into euros the other day when 1 euro was = 1.462 dollars. Todays rate is €1=$1.484 so I've made over $1k by changing over.

challenge of the day... mathsie guy to tell us IanMcs Balnce on Carlos...

seriously though not a bad idea... I'e just mailed my skin and see if they ahve that option if not it looks like neteller in and out

Mr.Plough

ianmc38 wrote: »

I changed my bankroll on Carlos into euros the other day when 1 euro was = 1.462 dollars. Todays rate is €1=$1.484 so I've made over $1k by changing over.

Are you holding it on carlos in euros? I emailed them about it and they said its not possible

Jesus Wept

Macspower wrote: »

challenge of the day... mathsie guy to tell us IanMcs Balnce on Carlos...

ianmc38 wrote:

I've made over $1k by changing over

Would it be more accurate to say that you didn't lose $1,000 by switching, as opposed to gaining $1,000?

mcaul

My tuppence worth is the dollar will weaken to about 1.52 before turning and moving back to the 1.4 level mid-year. Similar to sterling - a bit more weakness to about 76.5 and then back to 71 -72p level.

Markets have priced in interest rate cuts from both US & UK central banks. EU is still treatening to raise rates.

Oil prices are starting a downward trend which will see drops in EU inflation and enable the EU to look at dropping rates in 2nd half of 2008 and if this is seen to be happening, the euro will fall to a more realistic level.

shoutman

So book flights for vegas now? I presume even if the dollar was to weaken slightly the air flights will only increase.

ollyk1

Macspower wrote: »

challenge of the day... mathsie guy to tell us IanMcs Balnce on Carlos...

seriously though not a bad idea... I'e just mailed my skin and see if they ahve that option if not it looks like neteller in and out

~$70k+

El Stuntman

shoutman wrote: »

So book flights for vegas now? I presume even if the dollar was to weaken slightly the air flights will only increase.

it's always a good time to book Vegas flights

El Stuntman

ianmc38 wrote: »

I changed my bankroll on Carlos into euros the other day when 1 euro was = 1.462 dollars. Todays rate is €1=$1.484 so I've made over $1k by changing over.

so that's a BR of what, €50k or so?
How much did you lose by keeping it in $ up to that point?

phantom_lord

back to 1.46 today.

HiCloy

phantom_lord wrote: »

back to 1.46 today.

The Euro fell 2 points instantly earlier.Link

The quick version is:

German ECB guy
"Well inflations not really that bad, I'm sure it'll pass, and the economy will be fecked if we raise rates, or even if we don't cut them"

Unlucky IanMc38

ianmc38

Mr.Plough wrote: »

Are you holding it on carlos in euros? I emailed them about it and they said its not possible

It's a bit of a workaround. You need to login to your account on the website and buy casino chips. These are stored in euros so basically works the same as the sportsbook system on other skins.

phantom_lord

is noble the only skin on ipoker that actually allows you to hold your bankroll in yoyos proper, as in, just converts to dollars just when u sit, and back to yoyos when you leave the table?

phantom_lord

ianmc38 wrote: »

so I've made over $1k by changing over.

you didn't really make 1k though did u? you just avoided losing $1k worth of euros?

Macspower

had a mail from my poker client today...

interesting... they didn't liek the idea of me moving in and out with neteller as it costs them... they have suggested that they do something to insure me against currency flucuations... rate on the site is currently 1.49.... should I ask them to guarantee this for me?

ArmaniJeanss

phantom_lord wrote: »

is noble the only skin on ipoker that actually allows you to hold your bankroll in yoyos proper, as in, just converts to dollars just when u sit, and back to yoyos when you leave the table?

I'd have thought (perhaps wrongly) that all the skins based in a Euro country would operate this way. PPP,VC,GJP used to operate this way for definite back in the old TribecaRIP days.
(which, back when the dollar was on a roll led to threads where people complained that they yesterday they had $X in their account and today they only have $X-2%)

I'm the only person in the world playing iPoker via SportingIndexPoker and they definitely keep my € balance fixed regardless of fluctuations.

phantom_lord

I'm just wondering since i've tried signing up to a couple of sites with rb deals, but none of them will give me a euro account. even carlo's thing isn't great since they're deposits/withdrawals are in $ and all my money is in €.

Zorba

ianmc38 wrote: »

It's a bit of a workaround. You need to login to your account on the website and buy casino chips. These are stored in euros so basically works the same as the sportsbook system on other skins.

And then Jean-Claude Trichet comes out with this today:

http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/0117/ecb.html?rss

eamonzo

phantom_lord wrote: »

I'm just wondering since i've tried signing up to a couple of sites with rb deals, but none of them will give me a euro account. even carlo's thing isn't great since they're deposits/withdrawals are in $ and all my money is in €.

So you deposit your money in euro in the casino. Than bring it to the table in dollars. Then put in back into the casino in euro.

When you withdraw do you get the value of your money in dollars against the current exchange rate?

e.g. say if you had 1000 euros in the casino and the value of the dollar dropped to 1.50 would you get 1000 x 1.50 = $1500?

Idu

its pretty much certain that the FED will cut rates by 50% at their next meeting and the ECB will more than likely keep rates unchanged for at least this quarter. Also more and more countries are selling off their dollar reserves in favour of EURO's and YEN thus further decreasing the dollars market value

Its not inconcievable that the exchange rate could go to €1:$1.75 within six months

With this is mind its probably not wise to have a large amount of US Dollars sitting in a poker account doing nothing IF you plan on withdrawing large sums of it on a regular basis

The best way to hedge any currency is against precious metals with gold being the historical choice

Jesus Wept

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

its pretty much certain that the FED will cut rates by 50% at their next meeting

I thought they usually only move it by quarter or a half percent or is that not the case?

Idu

yeah sorry i meant a 50 basis point cut or half a percent

mcaul

Had this in e-mail from currency managers

"EURUSD Has broken the key 1.4610 support EURUSD has now invalidate its uptrend and the path of least resitance is now to the downside. "


Is suggesting EURUSD to move toward 1.42 in near term and below 1.40 in medium term.

a147pro

mcaul wrote: »

Had this in e-mail from currency managers

"EURUSD Has broken the key 1.4610 support EURUSD has now invalidate its uptrend and the path of least resitance is now to the downside. "


Is suggesting EURUSD to move toward 1.42 in near term and below 1.40 in medium term.

SELL SELL SELL. I'm cashing out but I don't feel great about it.

a147pro

mcaul wrote: »

Had this in e-mail from currency managers

"EURUSD Has broken the key 1.4610 support EURUSD has now invalidate its uptrend and the path of least resitance is now to the downside. "


Is suggesting EURUSD to move toward 1.42 in near term and below 1.40 in medium term.

Actually I've just thought about this Mccaul, you're sayin EUR/USD. So If I'm looking to cash out dollars, and your forecast is right, I should hang on? It has picked up about two cent since I considered withdrawing so thats already saved me the buy in to a decent live freezeout. Hmmm...

Slash/ED

As a complete noob to this...Does this mean the dollar is now what you should keep your money in...?

ionapaul

Slash/ED wrote: »

As a complete noob to this...Does this mean the dollar is now what you should keep your money in...?

Well, if you trust the email advice of 'currency managers'! Their spelling leaves a lot to be desired.....

I wouldn't place a whole lot of trust on that email to be honest.

a147pro

Well it did go up 2 cent in a day but Stars, notwithstanding that they claim to convert at Reuters rates, are two cent (to my detriment) above that rate.

Anyone know the crack with that? I thought maybe they jsut update it daily and haven't done it yet but its the same as it was yesterday.

cooker3

The Fed have just cut interest rates by .75% from 4.25 to 3.5%
How is this going to affect the dollar?

ArmaniJeanss

cooker3 wrote: »

The Fed have just cut interest rates by .75% from 4.25 to 3.5%
How is this going to affect the dollar?

It should weaken the dollar against all other currencies. The only reason this would not happen would be if the cut was already 'priced in'.

ionapaul

Typically demand for a currency rises and falls with its interest rates, so usually a currency weakens following its central bank's interest rate cut. I don't think there are any compelling arguments out there right now for the dollar to strengthen versus the euro in the short or medium term and it is more likely to weaken more.

Do some research and make up your own mind on this if you are dealing with large amounts / invesments, don't make any moves based on the thoughts of faceless strangers off da interweb!

Idu

there's a rumour doing the rounds that this cut was an emergency cut and that the 50 basis point cut that was scheduled for next week may still happen. this original cut was priced into the market, the emergency cut wasnt. US Dollar should drop now as this rate cut has failed to boost expectations in the market and pretty much admitted out loud that the US is in the midst of a recession

a147pro

yes down a cent. sigh.

MadDonna

I reckon the US FED has shown all its cards. Inflation is now above the bse rate - I doubt they can cut much more.

UK will probably cut but ECB will stay still. So my opinion is that the $/EUR will not move much from here, if anyhing it will recover a little.

Cable is likely to fall back to perhaps $1.80/£ so I am leaving dollars in my account because I think I can trade back to £ later at a better price.

luckylucky

MadDonna wrote: »

So my opinion is that the $/EUR will not move much from here, if anyhing it will recover a little.

The dollar has actually gained about 2 or 3 cents on the euro in the last week or so. Good news as far as most online poker players are concerned I would've thought. I haven't much knowledge of the economic factors behind it, anyone know if this is just a temporary blip. It does seem that the dollar had finally steadied a bit even in the few weeks prior to this.

HiCloy

luckylucky wrote: »

I haven't much knowledge of the economic factors behind it, anyone know if this is just a temporary blip.

I think a lot of it was to do with the talk from the ECB on Thursday - previously they had said they would only consider a rate increase or no change due to inflationary pressures, but after leaving the rate unchanged they indicated cuts were likely later in the year

The Fed will probably continue to cut rates also, no idea what the net effect on the exchange rate will be

MadDonna

I think the FED did ALL their cutting up front, hence the spike.

Th guaranteed way of course to eliminate currency fluctuations is to play a Euro account and play the hands in Euros. William Hill etc

But iPoker has such offers, that I am making $20k+ a year in kickbacks. A few cents here and there in switching back to Neteller doesnt worry me.....