heads up stt's!!??

ditpoker

i was reading the Amaru sng thread the other day and how unlikely it is for someone to win 5 SNG's in a row, and was thinking what kind of chances does someone have of winning 5, or 10, or 15 or 20 etc etc $10 heads up games in a row.

i'm not much a maths head but assuming game 1 is 50/50, getting passed game 2 is then 75/25 and so on!?!? or am i horribly wrong? and i know that assumes parity in quality of player...

could it be a prop bet? could anyone here do it? has done it?!

Glowingmind

It's much more doable. I did 6 in a row in April (5 hold'em, 1 omaha)
Just doing it by game type i did 8 omaha in a row (there were holdem losses in between) once

Flushdraw

Each new game is 50/50 if you were equally skilled. What happened in the previous game has no relevance if you ask me. I wouldnt play HU though if i thought i was only a 50/50, whats the point? I'd put it on red or black instead.

Mr.Plough

ive ran hot and done 6 or 7 in a row.

really boring though

BIGMICKG

ive won 5 or 6 9 setaers in a row. heads up players regularly win 6+ stts in a row obviously this isnt possible at 9 seaters tough

Grimebox

really simple probability: (1/2)^n where n is the number of games you want to win in a row. multiply by 100 if you want to get the % chance of succeeding

If your think your chances of winning each game is more like 60/40 then just do (6/10)^n

I dabbled in $100 HU stt's when hammered. Proved very profitable!

The Tourist

where p(x) = probability of x,

P(x1 and x2) = p(x1)*p(x2)

and so:
p(win game 1 and win game 2) = p(win1)*p(win2)
p(win1 and win2 and win3) = p(win1)*p(win2)*p(win3)

etc.

ditpoker

so assuming a player has a 60-40 edge cos they are amazing at cards it is (6/10)^10 for chances of winning 10 in a row.

i got 0.006046618 does this mean that its .6% chance of doing it?

for 50-50 i got 0.000976563 so what i assume is basically 0.01% chance of winning ten in row, or in real terms for every 1000 times i attempt it i should successfully do it once!?!?

Grimebox

Yeah pretty much! Thats why amaru's stt challenge was an absolute farce.

You can think of it in terms of flipping a coin if that helps. The same odds of it being heads 10 times in a row is the number you got.

On average, it will actually only happen 1 in 10,000 times rather then 1000! just to make things worse for you

Mellor

What actually was the Amaru challenge?

Assuming 50% chance its 1/1024
At 80% its 10.7% I think

Grimebox

it was something along the lines of winning 5 9-handed stt's in a row. Almost impossible at $10+ stt's

ITT-Pat

ditpoker wrote: »

i was reading the Amaru sng thread the other day and how unlikely it is for someone to win 5 SNG's in a row, and was thinking what kind of chances does someone have of winning 5, or 10, or 15 or 20 etc etc $10 heads up games in a row.

i'm not much a maths head but assuming game 1 is 50/50, getting passed game 2 is then 75/25 and so on!?!? or am i horribly wrong? and i know that assumes parity in quality of player...

could it be a prop bet? could anyone here do it? has done it?!

Did you not tell me once that you lost somethin like 15 Heads Ups in a row???

luckylucky

Say your an average player, imo your likelihood of winning 10 in a row or for that matter losing 10 in a row is actually greater than just simply .5 ^10. Because at certain times you will hit a streak fo opponents who are absolutely awful and at other times you will be playing your worst poker and against good opponents, so I think it's streakier than just purely .5 ^10.

Iago

close but no cigar...

won 5 out of 7 tonight, I still think winning 5 in a row is down to luck rather than skill, no matter what level you play them at.

BIGMICKG

Grimebox wrote: »

it was something along the lines of winning 5 9-handed stt's in a row. Almost impossible at $10+ stt's

its far from impossible just really hard. i won 3 $50 and 2 $100 9 seaters in a row on stars against good opponents.

dougee19

ive won 13 in a row before... have done 6-9 a lot of times too, if there was actually some challenge i'd be well up for it

Mellor

dougee19 wrote: »

ive won 13 in a row before... have done 6-9 a lot of times too, if there was actually some challenge i'd be well up for it

ditpoker

Mellor wrote: »

What actually was the Amaru challenge?

Assuming 50% chance its 1/1024
At 80% its 10.7% I think

effectively would it be profitable to lay odds of 500-1 on someone winning 10 $10 heads up tourney's in a row!? and if i were to offer say... oh i don't know... we'll call him Flloyd... $500 if he won ten $10 tourneys in a row, how would i be able to protect against the dirty rotton cheat he is... i.e collusion?

assuming the playing field, terms and conditions are fair, 500-1?! good price, bad price?

brianmc

ditpoker wrote: »

for 50-50 i got 0.000976563 so what i assume is basically 0.01% chance of winning ten in row, or in real terms for every 1000 times i attempt it i should successfully do it once!?!?

I think your conversion from decimal to percentages should end up at 0.1%.

Anyhow, one in a thousand is correct - kind of.

However, that would be one time in every 1000 - 10 game attempts. I.E. You start a 10 game session. You win the first two but lose the third. If this is a ten game "attempt" - obviously there's no point in playing the other 7 games. That's one attempt. It's an attempt that lasted three games. Suppose on average an attempt lasted 3.2 games. Well then 1000 attempts will last 3200 games.

The odds of winning any sequence of ten of your games over only 1000 games is quite a bit lower than 0.1%. I'm too lazy to even begin trying to remember how to calculate it properly at the moment though.

Edit: Maybe you hadn't got that confused at all, I've just reread your posts. Meh.

Flushdraw

So who's up for a 100 game HU challenge?

Play 100 $20 HU STTs and post up sharkscope/PT stats at the end. Be good to see what peoples longest winning/losing streak will be at the end of it.

100 games is only a short sample but it could be interesting

ditpoker

Flushdraw wrote: »

So who's up for a 100 game HU challenge?

Play 100 $20 HU STTs and post up sharkscope/PT stats at the end. Be good to see what peoples longest winning/losing streak will be at the end of it.

100 games is only a short sample but it could be interesting

i'm in danger of putting more money online and spinning it up hyper quick playing heads up stt's only to lose it as quick cos i think im some sort of heads up winning god-like machine and get cocky!

if i stick any moneys online i'll give it a go!

ITT-Pat... yes.

Flushdraw

I'll open a new account on ipoker tonight or tomorrow and give it a bash

ditpoker

Flushdraw wrote: »

I'll open a new account on ipoker tonight or tomorrow and give it a bash

multi-tabling against yourself doesnt count!

White Knight

dougee19 wrote: »

ive won 13 in a row before... have done 6-9 a lot of times too, if there was actually some challenge i'd be well up for it

I have won 13 in a row in the same session before - 11 $50 and 2 $100 games on stars and everything I did turned to gold! I think dacman can back that up as he was in work with me at the time (about the start of 2006) .. However even as good as I think I am at heads up games, I know it was a rare thing to happen.

Flushdraw

White Knight wrote: »

I have won 13 in a row in the same session before - 11 $50 and 2 $100 games on stars and everything I did turned to gold! I think dacman can back that up as he was in work with me at the time (about the start of 2006) .. However even as good as I think I am at heads up games, I know it was a rare thing to happen.

Well you can start (or finish!) by beating El S in the HU league and helping me clinch 3rd spot in the league

Go go go..White Knight!

cooker3

I have won pretty much every heads up stt I've ever played, though admitaley they were all against flushdraw so not saying much

Flushdraw

cooker3 wrote: »

I have won pretty much every heads up stt I've ever played, though admitaley they were all against flushdraw so not saying much

LOL

POKERKING

90% of my online poker is heads up its the most profitable form of poker for me, mostly 10$ i just checked my stats on sharkscope and my longest streak is 11 in a row and ive done it twice, its very hard to win more than 5 in a row cos theres always a donk that will outdraw you or pokerstars will give them miracle cards!!

i find heads up the most interesting aspect of poker and would love to read some strategy on it, i tried 2+2 but didnt really find it helpful although i could of been in wrong section, i would love to have a big enough bankroll to play higher stakes heads up but i like to spend everything i win so cant build 1 up!!!

if anyone has stragey advice id love to discuss it

ps for non-believers my username is vpokerking and i play on stars, my stats can be checked im not bothered about being annonymous!

Flushdraw

Had a go at this last night and a bit today..I've played 20 so far and i'm 12-8 ahead....bit disappointed in that but its early days.

I lost my first 4 games i played but i'm currently on a run of 7 straight wins. (Threw in an omaha HU last game for a change of scenery!) Taking a break because i want to play on a different skin. I'll give it a bash later or tomorrow and see if i can stretch the winning streak

ditpoker

magic 10 in a row coming!!?!?! gooo tony!!

dougee19

im actually really glad that ive started doing this again :P
i actually turned my account which has been at a loss from the very start into a profit, haha... and its written down and im on hot form too, haha.. who would have thought!! not really playing heads up though, the time of each is way off... just in between my cash games but im doing okay i think, when/if i ever make it past 7 or 8 i'll repost again



p.s.
can someone please link me to the site that transfers hand histories from ipoker to boards format... have a really really sick hand i want to put up somewhere... was funny.. thanking you

dougee19

anyone on here got a record to beat??
i obv wont be doing it!!!
lost 8 out of 10 with big buyins... yeah, that was a great idea.. grinding it back now...
anyone got a recent run of 8,9,10,+???
im only at 7 atm

Flushdraw

Didnt get past 7..havent played much HU lately on ipoker, i'll go back next week and try get 100 played just to see the stats. I gave up when the only decent buyin games where all super turbos and 1 minute blinds..once it goes 100/200 blinds fckers just keep shippin it PF

ditpoker

3 is as high as ive got but i'm not very good!

managed to successfully lose the $6.18 in my account... oh well!

dougee19

i went mad into this.. seriously, won 4 in a row $5, then lost a $20... so won 4 10's in a row and lost 2 20's so went crazy and stepped it up to 200's while i was LOCKED last night... my sharkscope is soooo funny...
when i sobered up i played good again
michaeld18 on sharkscope :P.. atm im on "Super Hot" form(prob first time ever on there) but have a feeling im gonna blow it NOW!!!