What are the chances of multiple accidental nail punctures?

OTK

Hi there

I had a puncture in my rear driver side car tyre yesterday.
I went to the local mechanic who said that a very long nail had damaged the tyre and that it couldn't be fixed. I paid for a new tyre (€100).
Today having driven maybe 40km since, I noticed that the same tyre is punctured again, this time with a screw.

OK so what are the chances that the two incidents are related vs independent? Is there a mathematical way to work this out? By related I mean that for example
that I have driven over the same patch of road covered with nails and screws both days
or
that someone is hammering metal into my tyre at night ?

I don't know the mean time between punctures for tyres so let's say 50,000KM based on my driving experience.

thanks

Pherekydes

I don't see how a probability can be calculated for this; too many factors at play.

Are you driving frequently in an area with building sites? Is there any other factors at play, like other people's cars being vandalised? Would you have any reason to believe you are being victimised or punished.

Meanwhile, I'll transfer this thread to the motors forum, where you'll likely get lots of informed opinion and ideas.

seamus

Indeed, very difficult, if not impossible to work out such a probability mathematically.

Coming up with actual probabilities usually requires a lot of empirical data or deterministic variables.

Discounting the malicious scenario, and assuming that you drive the same route every day, it's fair to say that the probability of you receiving a similar puncture tomorrow is exactly the same as the probability of receiving the puncture today.

Actually, it would be slightly less because now there is one less screw on the road - it's in your tyre.

Archeron

this used to happen all the time to everyone in a job I used to wrok in, and noone could figure out why. It turns out that one of the metal fabrication companies in the estate were wheeling shop racks across the car park, and all those loose screws were falling out and lying around the road leading to many punctures. Do you have any companies like that on your journey, or in your housing/working area?

Decmalone

I'd say its more to do with a stretch of road where there is construction going on. I drove for about 3 years without a puncture and then in the space of 2 weeks got 2 punctures in the rear drivers side. Both screws. I was wondering was sombody doing it on purpose but there is a lot of building going on in the area. Didnt need new tyres though, just stuck a tube in. Often wondered how screws or nails go straight into the tyre. I would have thought if a screw was lying flat on the road and you drove over it it would stay flat.

Victor

Get on to the council and get them to make the builders to sweep the roads.

Decmalone wrote: »

I'd say its more to do with a stretch of road where there is construction going on. I drove for about 3 years without a puncture and then in the space of 2 weeks got 2 punctures in the rear drivers side. Both screws. I was wondering was sombody doing it on purpose but there is a lot of building going on in the area. Didnt need new tyres though, just stuck a tube in. Often wondered how screws or nails go straight into the tyre. I would have thought if a screw was lying flat on the road and you drove over it it would stay flat.

Its quite possible the screw was thrown up by another vehicle and hadn't come to rest when the tyre went over it.

I was hit by a short piece of skirting board once outside a joinery shop, that was thrown up by a car. All I heard was a loud bang and had this sudden pain in my leg and "WTF?!?!?!?" :eek: