Low Content - 3betting Again

dvdfan

Me annoying you again about 3betting concepts again. Say we have someone who 3bets light but dosent particularly 4bet light, and say they 3bet us and we have broadway cards, TT and 99 & Suited connectors say 76+ as our range not including AK or AQ or premium pairs.

Working out how often we need to be successful at 4betting:
We bet $3.50, they 3bet to $13, we 4bet to $35. We risk $35 to win $16.50 so If we 4bet we need to be succesfull 2 out of 3 times to break even.

Now if i decide to call with that range instead and let them cbet and fold if we miss or think were behind and push on the cbet if we think were ahead hitting TP or Draws etc.

Now we risk $9.50 (cost of calling the 3bet) for the chance to win a $44 pot ($26 preflop and cbet of $18) so we need to take down the pot just short of 1 in 6 times to breakeven.

Of course sometimes well push and get called by a premium pair and sometimes we will push with a draw and lose, but sometimes well push and get called by a worse hand too and sometimes our draws will hit and considering their raising light i think well fair well against their range when we hit so id say we might need to take down the pot 1 in 5 times to compensate although when you throw in the times you call with your AK's and Premium pairs i think this could be a better option than 4betting (at least for people like me who are poor at 3/4betting)

I think this would be a good alternative too against people who 4bet light too, especially if you feel they have the edge on you and are sick of raising and having to fold. To me i feel 3/4betting has become more of an ego thing rather than somethings thats done because its +EV as unless youve your villains range nailed on your edge is tiny.

So now the villain is going to see me calling hes 3bets alot more and all of a sudden hes having to bet into big pots with often a marginal hands knowing hes only getting called/pushed on with a hand thats hit the flop. Also hes 3bets are being folded to less often, so making them loses value too.

I could also occassionally just call their flop cbet with big hands and also with hands that have showdown value to mix it up a bit too and possibly get away from losing the rest of my stack with say a draw or MP and sometimes get a showdown or see a cheap turn and river.

I know calling with PP isnt great here because we need to hit a set to be comfortable getting all in but with broadway cards we have a chance of hitting TP maybe 1 in 3 and although were rarely flopping made hands with s/c they will take down the hand with a push sometimes and will outdraw to win the hand sometimes mainly because were been 3betting light as this obviously would be a terrible way to play someone who has a tigh 3betting range but against someone whos doing it light we would fair better.

I also understand that we 3bet/4bet light to get paid off on premium hands but we too also end up paying off the other villains that do it to us aswell so that should even itself out.

I do believe however that 3betting/4betting light can be profitbale for people who are aware of the villains range and where the villain dosent understand 4betting concepts but i wonder should we 3/4 bet light just because everyone else does when the edge is so small and the variance so high. After all your not going to 3bet a calling station light so why would you 3bet someone like me whos going to call you alot but only risk more money when im in a good spot and i wont make the mistakes that a calling station would?

phantom_lord

To me i feel 3/4betting has become more of an ego thing rather than somethings thats done because its +EV as unless youve your villains range nailed on your edge is tiny.

I've seen you say this a couple of times and it's something that i don't think is true at all, most people don't react well (at 100nl anyway) to being 3/4bet light and play 3bet pots really badly, coupled with the fact that mistakes are so costly, i think a good player has a huge edge in these spots.

dvdfan

phantom_lord wrote: »

I've seen you say this a couple of times and it's something that i don't think is true at all, most people don't react well (at 100nl anyway) to being 3/4bet light and play 3bet pots really badly, coupled with the fact that mistakes are so costly, i think a good player has a huge edge in these spots.

When i say that i dont mean it about the players that have an edge i mean it about the players like me that used to (although id like to think ive improved somewhat) do it because ive read articles that we should be and seen posts where someone shows hands they get paid off on because they had been 3betting light previous to this etc etc. But alot of us dont understand that unless your aware of the villains range that hes 3betting light with then you dont have an edge and as you said if your also making mistakes in big pots then your likely spewing alot of unessary chips.

This is why i did say in that quote "unless you have the villains range nailed on your edge is tiny", if you do you have an edge but not much, if you have hes range nailed on but he plays well in big pots you still only have a small edge so you need him to play big pots bad. Granted players like yourself have this ability and theres quite a few boardsies even at the 100nl that can do this well, me not being one of them.

However we dont give any PAHUD stats any credibility over say a sample of 50 and we would really want to see 100-150+ for went to SD% etc to have much credibility so can we really say with confidence that we have someones 3betting range nailed on after playing 100 hands with them, we might see 1-4 hands showndown in this time. Unlike mined stats we dont have any 3bet/4bet stats currently so we have to make a decision based on instinct alot of the time. Of course it sometimes is obvious that a player is bad and we can assume he also plays big pots bad but its something where i used to go wrong and assumed peoples 3betting range based on wheter they were a TAG or donk or wheter there PFR is high and i used to assume the higer the PFR the more likely he is to be 3betting when this is not true.

My point being we dont have the software at the moment to track/mine 3betting stats so alot of our reads are assumptions which we can get away with against bad player but against good TAG's how many showdowns do we need to see to get a grip on their range or are we basing our range on a session where we saw them 3bet alot and how accurate is our range based on that. Im confident when the new holdem manager and PT3 comes out based on that amount of mined hands i have and the fact that it can track 3bets by position that i can put someone on an accurate range and play back accordingly but now i think im basing it on hunches which arent accurate and it was a big leak in my game. I guess the people that can assign these ranges accurately have an edge on me just as people who can read the game incredibly well would have had an edge before PT came on the scene and when the new 3betting stats come in i would imagine these people will lose their edge slightly.

So in the case of where say i have your range nailed on and you have my range nailed on, then we have little or no edge if we use this information properly and we both play equally well post flop in big pots. Do you think if you took my strategy and instead of 4betting him light with the original range i mentioned if you just flat call and push on his cbet with a range you think your ahead of do you think it would have a better expected EV considering he has to risk $31 to win $26 dollars and you only risk $9.50 to win $44 and the other alternative of 4betting light is risking $35 to win $16 without seeing a flop?