Very low content - Live, how much do you trust tells?

Slash/ED

This is basically based on a hand I was involved in last night in the trusty old Jackpot 20 freezeout. The player in question seemed to know what he was doing, though, and was not the usual awful player you'd come across at this tournament fwiw. Don't know him though.

A player UTG+1 opens to 200 (Blinds 25/50, average stack still 2,500). Now, as he does this, his hands are shaking and he fumbles his chips a bit, everything about the way he bets screams strenght and he seems very excited about the hand he has. I'm pretty sure he wouldn't get this excited about Ace-King or Jacks. Anyway, I look at my cards, pocket queens. Feck, I think to myself...

My point here is, as foolish as it sounds, I'm very certain this person has aces or kings based on physical tells alone. I flat call UTG+2 (I think we're 9 handed here), hoping to spike a set and having position on him for the rest of the hand, also part of my thinking is if it's re-raised I'll get another chance to assess the strength of his hand before I have to act.

Obviously, normally, flat calling here with queens and potentially playing a big multiway pot with them is far from optimal strategy so I was basically wondering how much stock people put in things like tells in live tournaments. Would you go with your instinct, or is it an easy raise? Is assigning him such a narrow range based on something like a tell ridiculous even if you're that certain about it?

I'll leave out the results of the hand until later, it was one of the most bizzare hands I've ever been involved in....

Mr.Plough

easy raise.

he could be excited about any hand from 88+ AJ+

or he could just be an online player who's just a bit nervous.

there are some traits that can help you determine whether a player is strong or weak, but generally i think live tells are way overrated.

BIGMICKG

Slash/ED wrote: »

This is basically based on a hand I was involved in last night in the trusty old Jackpot 20 freezeout. The player in question seemed to know what he was doing, though, and was not the usual awful player you'd come across at this tournament fwiw. Don't know him though.

A player UTG+1 opens to 200 (Blinds 25/50, average stack still 2,500). Now, as he does this, his hands are shaking and he fumbles his chips a bit, everything about the way he bets screams strenght and he seems very excited about the hand he has. I'm pretty sure he wouldn't get this excited about Ace-King or Jacks. Anyway, I look at my cards, pocket queens. Feck, I think to myself...

My point here is, as foolish as it sounds, I'm very certain this person has aces or kings based on physical tells alone. I flat call UTG+2 (I think we're 9 handed here), hoping to spike a set and having position on him for the rest of the hand, also part of my thinking is if it's re-raised I'll get another chance to assess the strength of his hand before I have to act.

Obviously, normally, flat calling here with queens and potentially playing a big multiway pot with them is far from optimal strategy so I was basically wondering how much stock people put in things like tells in live tournaments. Would you go with your instinct, or is it an easy raise? Is assigning him such a narrow range based on something like a tell ridiculous even if you're that certain about it?

I'll leave out the results of the hand until later, it was one of the most bizzare hands I've ever been involved in....

well if u say ur calling to hit a set here i think its ok because ur pretty sure he has a monster, but what happens if the 2 of u end up in a heads up pot here and the board comes J high and he bets out?? personally i think its hard to fold QQ in this position. thats why i woulda made it 500 preflop here, i know ur comitting 20% of ur stack but u can still fold if he pushes. in a 20 quid freezeout with 2,500 starting stack alot of people will say ur mad to fold QQ preflop anyway. i got slagged 1 night in the jackpot for folding JJ in the 2nd level of the friday game to a 1500 reraise. so i think there might be alot of people here saying ur crazy. id ignore them if i were u. be interested to see the result of the hand

Slash/ED

He's definitely played live before, and he seemed like a decent player.

Is he really getting so excited about 88 or AJ UTG+1 9 handed that he can't control his hands? He has otherwise seemed confident and is at home in the table, it's definitely not his first few times playing live and he hasn't done this while betting yet.

EDIT - Mick, as for what'd happen in that situation, it'd certainly be very, very tough to get away from. Luckily I'd have position and get another chance to see how he looks when betting and how much etc. As for results, I'll post them up in a bit.

Mr.Plough

i cant understand him having shakey hands with aa in a 20e freezout if hes played live a good few times before.

i'd ship it in anyway

Mellor

meh it doesn't mean aces, my hands shake all the time, esp when a little cold,
shake bluff FTW

brianmc

In a game, live or otherwise, you have to use tells to narrow hand ranges and make better reads. That's poker. The most useful tells, most of the time are about betting patterns, bet sizes, etc. but of course in live games it would be stupid to ignore physical tells.

Just don't do anything crazy like narrowing their range down to the one hand that has you beat due to pessimism. Be realistic about it.

For me, I don't think there's enough information in your post for me to narrow his range to anything more specific than AT+, TT+ with outside chances of anything and everything else. With a bit of time at the table to get more of a read and against certain styles of less experienced players I would be quite happy to narrow the range based on your description to QQ+, AQ, AK.

I also believe that it is quite possible to put certain types of new players on AA from a physical tell. I haven't successfully dodged bullets yet - but some nervous types of new player when betting with AA have a different kind of confidence about their bet. These are the guys who bet preflop with KK but are still quite nervous about what's going to happen on an A high flop and what happens if they're up against the boots. When these guys bet with AA their demeanour changes because they KNOW (at least preflop) that the move they are making (i.e. the raise) is the correct move. One of these days I will get a chance to spot this at the same time that I have KK and I will be quite happy to drop them preflop (set mining opportunities aside).

kakak1

Slash/ED wrote: »

The player in question seemed to know what he was doing, though, and was not the usual awful player you'd come across at this tournament

If this assumption is correct I don't think he's going to shake, fall off his seat because he gets AA / KK in the early stages of a €20 tournament. I'd raise here & you'd probably find out pretty quickly if you are behind

He could of just had a dirty hangover and was sweating like a dirty old man in toys r us. WHO KNOWS!? I would of at least doubled his raise with QQ and see what he does.

Slash/ED

Well just because he plays doesn't mean he doesn't give off very obvious tells. I used to be an absolute tellbox even when I played live poker pretty much every night of the week..It's something I've hopefully worked on, but even over a 20e freezeout, it can happen.

I should also emphasise it wasn't just his hands, but his whole demeaner, everything he did and said while betting that screamed strenght. It wasn't something he'd shown before in the 25 odd minutes I'd played with him and he had been quite involved.

Also, position was a big reason to flat call for me. If I raise to see what he does is that not the same as him being first to act and I'll see what he does? Admittedly he'll act with a wider range post flop, but still, there was also the large chance of a re-raise pre flop.

I also didn't want to get raised out of the hand, if my instinct was right, it was an excellent spot to set mine and I've little to no doubt I take his whole stack when we're 50bbs deep on a queen high flop unless it's ultra co-ordinated especially with position.

CaptainNemo

I once noticed people folding to a player in the Macau quite freqently when they noticed his hands shaking. I had noticed that this players' hands ALWAYS shake when he's in a pot.

It's not right to say that an experienced cash game player's hands will never shake. However there could be lots of reasons for it (too much coffee, DTs, early onset Parkinson's / MS).

I'd rather raise it up and if you get reraised, muck 'em.

mdwexford

I put a lot of trust into live tells.

Its a big part of what makes live poker so easy.

Captain Tom

mdwexford wrote: »

I put a lot of trust into live tells.

Its a big part of what makes live poker so easy.

agreed.

ollyk1

People I play with might be surprised to hear this from me but I reckon I probably have to make marginal decisions in a live game less than 3% of the time.

Of that small number of marginal hands (most hands are very simple decisions really) I allow any live tell/feeling/gut stirring/bowel movement/tea leaf reading to guide me. The way I figure it in the long run it'll probably break even anyway as its a marginal spot and if my jedi soul reading is right 51% of the time its a bonus. :rolleyes:

ditpoker

i like the line of making it 500 and then working from there. some will say its only a 20e game but even still this is the first game people play when graduating from 5 euro homes game with mates, even if they've played a ton of these getting a big hand in a 20 game could still excite them a bit to give off an obvious tell.

for whats its worth im guessing he has QQ!

ditpoker

ollyk1 wrote: »

People I play with might be surprised to hear this from me but I reckon I probably have to make marginal decisions in a live game less than 3% of the time.

Of that small number of marginal hands (most hands are very simple decisions really) I allow any live tell/feeling/gut stirring/bowel movement/tea leaf reading to guide me. The way I figure it in the long run it'll probably break even anyway as its a marginal spot and if my jedi soul reading is right 51% of the time its a bonus. :rolleyes:

jedi soul reading for the win!!!

30something

I would play this hand normally except I would try to get it to showdown, because as OP said he has only played with this guy for 25 mins and hasn't seen any tells yet.

I would try to get to showdown as cheaply as possible to establish his holding. Having seen his holding I would then make a mental note: shaky hands = etc).

Poka is eezz

Theresalwaysone

He had a monster or was premeditating a bluff.

I find physical tells are the last thing I look for in a hand BUT they are often th definitive decision maker if I come across one.

For example:

Yesterday we were playing in UCD, myself and my flatmate Tommy Gunne were involved in a lot of pots and generally playing very laggish. Anyway, He is on the button to my BB and he raises (as he has done nearly every other button). He makes it 3.50

Tommy says "3.50 and Madden is going to 3bet to 15"

I pick up A10 on the BB and pop it up to 15.

He thinks for all of two seconds and makes it 40.

Now Im left in a spot. I know he is very laggish and capable of this with a very wide range which consists of basically his opening range with a heavier weight towards the stronger parts of it. Also he hasnt 4bet me at all in this session so everything about this screamed strength.

However, I had a feeling he was dying to 4bet me. I think any really strong hands and he flat calls as he knows by 4betting Im folding out nearly everything. So I study the situation for a minute, look at him and then BINGO my $$$$$tell. I ship it in 80% sure Im good.

He says "How much do you wanna gamble?"
I say" Shut up with the macho crap conor and call"

He says "ok, I call"

He has K9.

I shoved because of my tell.

My point is, Physical tells are very important and ignoring them is a serious leak in a persons game as it subtracts from any potential value you gain by having such a sick tell on someone.

Slash/ED is a player I play with often and he is not afraid to go with his gut and I find that it is rarely wrong.

The only caveat I wold have with physical tells is that they are generally very polarised.

i.e. Shaking hands is a sign of anticipation(strength) or a sign of nervousness(weakness)

And with that caveat I would add that you need to know the player quite well before you can change your decision purely on a physical tell.

I am not limping queens here unless I am sure and know the player, I will raise and take it from there going with my gut if he repops it.

Slash/ED

Theresalwaysone wrote: »

He had a monster or was premeditating a bluff.

i.e. Shaking hands is a sign of anticipation(strength) or a sign of nervousness(weakness)

Yeah that's definitely true, but generally I find it's weighted towards strength. In this spot though, first level, 9 handed table and him UTG+1 I found it very hard to believe this tell, if it was accurate, could possibly be weakness. He's not making a move at this point, he's only raising if he wants action either because he has a monster or is mixing up his play with a suited connector kind of hand, and I was 100% certain it wasn't the latter.

Anyway, results based thinking FTW, and just to get one of the weirdest hands I've ever been involved in in a while up...

I call, as I said. Two positions later makes it 600. Some folds and someone who I'd be fairly certain is playing live for the first ever time trys to raise to 1,000, then to 1,500, before being told he has to raise to 1,200. The button, blinds and UTG muck. Anyway, folded round to the raiser, who insta-shoves. I insta-muck, second raiser thinks for ages before he mucks, and the third raiser snap calls.

The hands? The 600 raiser also mucked queens, the original raiser had aces after all, and the other player? Being the jackpot 20, he, of course, had king 8 off suit and, of course, rivered a straight...I was very sure he had it, but don't want to get caught up in results based thinking. The general idea here is I should have raised to 500 or so, but is this not the 'raising to find out where I am' kind of thing so looked down on on here?

kakak1

mdwexford wrote: »

I put a lot of trust into live tells.

Yea I know, you put me on KK pre flop & decided to call with AA, good read

Theresalwaysone

Slash/ED wrote: »

is this not the 'raising to find out where I am' kind of thing so looked down on on here?

No. You are raising for value, you have a strong hand QQ. ShakyHandsGuy has a range of hands and you more often than not crush this range and also because we've discussed that it is either strength or weakness his range is polarised so again another incentive to raise.

You are raising because worse hands call
You are raising because you more than likely have the best hand and dont want a multi way pot.

If you are raises though, the villain, shakyhandsguy's range tightens up considerably and you are now more than likely crushed. Then YOU can get away from it.

BUT I see your point.

Raising here is for value but as an added bonus you "get to see where you are"

aodea

Theresalwaysone wrote: »

No. You are raising for value, you have a strong hand QQ. ShakyHandsGuy has a range of hands and you more often than not crush this range and also because we've discussed that it is either strength or weakness his range is polarised so again another incentive to raise.

You are raising because worse hands call
You are raising because you more than likely have the best hand and dont want a multi way pot.

If you are raises though, the villain, shakyhandsguy's range tightens up considerably and you are now more than likely crushed. Then YOU can get away from it.

BUT I see your point.

Raising here is for value but as an added bonus you "get to see where you are"

i always have shakey hands so dont read into everyone as this may just be a case of artrithis opposse to strong hand.

cardshark202

I think calling with QQ in your spot for the original raise is 100% fine. I would often flat call in this position vs an EP raiser with QQ or JJ or w/e

cooker3

I don't exactly play live much but I have yet to pick up a physical tell or notice a tell that I give which likely means I am rubbish with body language signals and a tellbox

Trippie

aodea wrote: »

i always have shakey hands so dont read into everyone as this may just be a case of artrithis opposse to strong hand.

ye but when exactly do you get strong hands anto, i think the best ive ever see you get pre-flop was 77, oh ye and the quads against fiddler

Theresalwaysone

aodea wrote: »

I play hands badly

FYP

Captain Tom

cooker3 wrote: »

I don't exactly play live much but I have yet to pick up a physical tell or notice a tell that I give which likely means I am rubbish with body language signals and a tellbox

i used to play a lot live and after a while it does become sort of second nature. though it's not usually a case of "omg he bet with his left hand he has nothing" or whatever. id say about 70-80% of tells i used were timing tells, which regulars in irish card rooms give away in abundance. if i didnt know a player id just make an assumption that the tells i applied to standard live player were applicable to him/her too, and they pretty much always were.

aodea

Theresalwaysone wrote: »

FYP

oh its just niggle. i read yopur blog win a tourni will ya!!!

Trippie

aodea wrote: »

oh its just niggle. i read yopur blog win a tourni will ya!!!

he's got you there steve,

out of interest anyone heading to the jackpot tonight for the 50 quid game

Theresalwaysone

Tournies are just an excuse to play bad poker. So Anto fits right in.

RoundTower

sometimes they can be quite reliable, I wouldn't give too much weight to a generic tell on a mostly unknown player though.

AdMMM

I give away this tell a lot; it means that I'm feckin' freezing from walking up to the card club!

El Stuntman

ollyk1 wrote: »

Of that small number of marginal hands (most hands are very simple decisions really) I allow any live tell/feeling/gut stirring/bowel movement/tea leaf reading to guide me. The way I figure it in the long run it'll probably break even anyway as its a marginal spot and if my jedi soul reading is right 51% of the time its a bonus. :rolleyes:

Ollie's alimentary canal clearly has some very bizarre propsensities that you won't find mentioned in any medical textbook :eek:

I have a couple of sick tells on some SE regs but I'll keep them to myself

Other than to say BCB is always bluffing (even when he thinks he has the best hand)

Kamaldihnio

i.e. Shaking hands is a sign of anticipation(strength) or a sign of nervousness(weakness)


Really????