calculate the % time I need villian to fold

willietherock

to make a play breakeven?

Ex:We have 33 oop on the turn with a board of K245 rainbow

the pot is 100, and the stacks are 550

we check and he bets 100

given that we have say 9 outs, how do I calculate how often he has to fold to make it +ev to shove?

RedJoker

I don't see why we have 9 outs, maybe you're assuming a 3 will only be good half the time or something.

Anyway, 9 outs on the turn is about 19.5% equity.

We're risking 550 to win 200 if he folds and 650 if he calls.

X is the percentage of the time he folds:

X(200) + (1-X)[(650 x 0.195) - (550 x 0.805)] = 0

200X + (1-X)(126.75 - 442.75) = 0

200X - 316 + 316X = 0

X = 0.61

So he has to fold 61% of the time for the play to be breakeven.

Here's an absolutely excellent post by Pokey which includes one of these calculations under section 3 if you want another example.

willietherock

thx,
thats exactly what I was looking for.

Mellor

Text book there RedJoker,

Just to give a generic forumla for reference, It not just to work out break even %s, it works out all EV, as long as you know enough info

(%fold)(pot)+(%call)[(pot+stack)(%win)-(stack)(%lose)] = EV

The Snapper

Equity for 9 outs ?

Should this not be 24.32%

46 unseen 9 outs 37 are no help for us

9/37*100=24.32

RedJoker

The Snapper wrote: »

Equity for 9 outs ?

Should this not be 24.32%

46 unseen 9 outs 37 are no help for us

9/37*100=24.32

That's if you want it in odds terms, 37-9 is 4.11-1.

For equity you take the number of outs over the total number of cards remaining or 9/46 = 0.19565.

You'll also notice that your chances of losing are (1 - 0.19565) = 0.8043 and that 0.8043-0.19565 is 4.11-1.

The Snapper

^^

of course

Excellent stuff by the way.

RoundTower

remember rj's post is the number for which pushing is equivalent to folding. It's possible that calling could be better than either.

connie147

When working out the amount of outs here in this situation, do we allow for the fact that the 3's might not be outs at all if our opponnent holds an ace?

Mellor

connie147 wrote: »

When working out the amount of outs here in this situation, do we allow for the fact that the 3's might not be outs at all if our opponnent holds an ace?

Yeah, If I in the originl hand I would of said 8 outs, the OP said 9 so RedJoker ran with it. 9 would represent a 3 being good have the time, I think this is a bit optimistic and I wouldn't of used over 8. But in reality, he doesn't have an ace or a set here everytime
But the question was relating to working out break even EV and not counting outs