If France don't get bonus against Georgia are we out?

Turnip2000

Just doing some calculations and is it true that if France dont get 5 points next Sunday against Georgia that our match against Argentina won't even matter?

The match is on at 2pm on the 30th while ours is on at 4pm.

If France get 4 points (no bonus) and we pull off the impossible, 5pts and none for Argentina we will all be on 14pts and Argentina and Frances points difference is +90 while ours is -3. We'd be out right?

The worst thing is that people flying over the game won't even know whether the game has any point!

And as we have seen Georgia are no pushovers!!

:eek:

Ghost Train

Turnip2000 wrote:

Just doing some calculations and is it true that if France dont get 5 points next Sunday against Georgia that our match against Argentina won't even matter?

The match is on at 2pm on the 30th while ours is on at 4pm.

If France get 4 points (no bonus) and we pull off the impossible, 5pts and none for Argentina we will all be on 14pts and Argentina and Frances points difference is +90 while ours is -3. We'd be out right?

The worst thing is that people flying over the game won't even know whether the game has any point!

And as we have seen Georgia are no pushovers!!

:eek:

No if we get five points against argentina and they get no bonus point, they go out, we go through

If at the completion of the pool phase two or more Teams are level on Match points, then the following criteria shall be used in the following order until one of the Teams can be determined as the higher ranked:

i. The winner of the Match in which the two tied Teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked;
ii. The Team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked;
...etc

Turnip2000

No

But if France get only 4pts against Geogrgia their points tally will = 14

If we get 5pts against Argentina ours will be = 14

If argies get 0pts against us they will be at = 14

Therefore it will go down to points difference and we will finish 3rd, no?

An Citeog

Turnip2000 wrote:

No

But if France get only 4pts against Geogrgia their points tally will = 14

If we get 5pts against Argentina ours will be = 14

If argies get 0pts against us they will be at = 14

Therefore it will go down to points difference and we will finish 3rd, no?

I think you may be right. If all teams end level on 14 points, the head-to-head wont count. Argentina will have beaten France, France will have beaten Ireland and Ireland will have beaten Argentina. Thus, it will come down to points difference and Ireland are well and truly fúcked!

Ghost Train

Oh, sorry, I see what you mean now

webbie

You are correct we need France to get bonus against Georgia. If they don't we are not mathematically out its just the impossible task has become even more impossible. In that scenario we would not only have to get 4 tries, stop Argentina geting 4 tries or loosing bonus points but also have to beat them by 50+ points so that we improve are points difference enough to pass them.

So 'Allez les Bleus'

Turnip2000

I suppose we would prefer to be in this position than had Comteponi slotted that 3 pointer over on day 1 against France and France had not got a bonus point that day. In that case 5 points against Georgia would have knocked us out.

webbie

Turnip2000 wrote:

I suppose we would prefer to be in this position than had Comteponi slotted that 3 pointer over on day 1 against France and France had not got a bonus point that day. In that case 5 points against Georgia would have knocked us out.

Good point, at the time I was cursing him for missing it but now I am glad he missed it at least it allows us continue dreaming for another week (because its only in my dreams can I see us getting the required result).

komodosp

Well at least their match is on first... They will be trying to be the top of the group so as to avoid NZ, so they will prob play to get their 4 tries... If ours was first, depending on the result they mightn't see the need... If we all finished on 14 they might be happy with points difference...

kvN-Paris

IF France : lose or draw
AND : Ireland win

Ireland goes to the next round !

Diamondmaker

Fortunately for us, there is HUGE incentive for France to get the BP.

They need to top the group to avoid the ABs, continue with the home games and to stand any chance of the hosts progressing satisfactorily in the RWC.

Its an odd scenario all right !

Arg only need a losing BP or a 4 try BP to still go thro top regardless of what we do!!!

This will make them play a very conservative slowing game against us ( which they are world leaders at ) full well knowing we have to play high risk. I dont see things clicking as they did against Italy last 6N. Also the Argies, unlike Italy, have more quality to kill us on the counters! A certain Doctor is on fire at the minute.

Punchbowl

Is the good Doctor not carrying an injury?

marco_polo

Diamondmaker wrote:

Fortunately for us, there is HUGE incentive for France to get the BP.

They need to top the group to avoid the ABs, continue with the home games and to stand any chance of the hosts progressing satisfactorily in the RWC.

Its an odd scenario all right !

Arg only need a losing BP or a 4 try BP to still go thro top regardless of what we do!!!

This will make them play a very conservative slowing game against us ( which they are world leaders at ) full well knowing we have to play high risk. I dont see things clicking as they did against Italy last 6N. Also the Argies, unlike Italy, have more quality to kill us on the counters! A certain Doctor is on fire at the minute.

I think Argentina will play their normal game and try to grind out the win. They will know that getting involved in an open game against Ireland would be a very risky business and they have no need to do this.

France have to win with a bonus to ensure that they will top the group in the event of us beating Argentina without allowing them to pick up a bonus point.

By my calculations Argentina will win the group just by picking up a bonus point against us as they will have 15 and France can get a maximum of 15?

LuckyLloyd

Don't worry.

France WILL take 5pts of Georgia.

Argentina WILL beat Ireland.

Nothing to worry about.

buck65

lads I don't know whether to laugh or cry, we are all still deluded after 7 consecutive brutal displays 2 v Argentina, 1 v Scotland, 1 v Italy and our 3 world cup games. 4 try win against Argentina ????!!! Argentina will fear an open game against us??? ENOUGH ..please

ivuernis

Turnip2000 wrote:

Just doing some calculations and is it true that if France dont get 5 points next Sunday against Georgia that our match against Argentina won't even matter?

The match is on at 2pm on the 30th while ours is on at 4pm.

If France get 4 points (no bonus) and we pull off the impossible, 5pts and none for Argentina we will all be on 14pts and Argentina and Frances points difference is +90 while ours is -3. We'd be out right?

The worst thing is that people flying over the game won't even know whether the game has any point!

And as we have seen Georgia are no pushovers!!

:eek:

I can't see France not getting the 4 tries against Georgia but should they beat Georgia BUT fail to get the bonus point then we would need to beat Argentina by 50 points and get the bonus point.

davmi

Turnip2000 wrote:

And as we have seen Georgia are no pushovers!!

:eek:

Georgia are pushovers!! we just wern't good enough to push them over! but France will be, I've no doubt bout that.

marco_polo

buck65 wrote:

lads I don't know whether to laugh or cry, we are all still deluded after 7 consecutive brutal displays 2 v Argentina, 1 v Scotland, 1 v Italy and our 3 world cup games. 4 try win against Argentina ????!!! Argentina will fear an open game against us??? ENOUGH ..please

I assume you are referring to my post on this point, this was in response to a previous poster who stated that Argentina should go for the 4 try point bonus to ensure qualification. I didn't say they would fear an open game against us, just that they have no reason at all to let themselves get dragged into one as the sensible option would be to grind out the win and suffocate Ireland.

Do you not agree that Ireland would be more likely to score 4 tries in an open flowing game of rugby that in a forward orientated slugfest?

BTW nowhere on this thread has any one actually suggested it it is a likely outcome either.

Erin Go Brath

buck65 wrote:

lads I don't know whether to laugh or cry, we are all still deluded after 7 consecutive brutal displays 2 v Argentina, 1 v Scotland, 1 v Italy and our 3 world cup games. 4 try win against Argentina ????!!! Argentina will fear an open game against us??? ENOUGH ..please

Finally a bit of sense on this thread!

Reality check lads: We have to score 4 tries against Argentina. A team who have conceeded NO tries so far in this tournament. We scrape a win over minnows Georgia scoring 2 tries, and now we're going to score 4 against a much superior team. :rolleyes: With all the will, and blind patriotism in the world its just not going to happen.

If we put up a good display and beat Argentina thats all we can ask at this stage really.

CJhaughey

Hopefully we will go out and get bate off the park, this will hopefully ensure the smooth transition to a new coach will be achieved without too much noise and dust.

Punchbowl

CJhaughey wrote:

Hopefully we will go out and get bate off the park, this will hopefully ensure the smooth transition to a new coach will be achieved without too much noise and dust.

So much for getting behind your team!!

Diamondmaker

marco_polo wrote:

I assume you are referring to my post on this point, this was in response to a previous poster who stated that Argentina should go for the 4 try point bonus to ensure qualification. I didn't say they would fear an open game against us, just that they have no reason at all to let themselves get dragged into one as the sensible option would be to grind out the win and suffocate Ireland.

Do you not agree that Ireland would be more likely to score 4 tries in an open flowing game of rugby that in a forward orientated slugfest?

BTW nowhere on this thread has any one actually suggested it it is a likely outcome either.

This is exactly the game plan the ARgies will play. They are professionals and will not write off Irelands threat based on the ;ast few games. They will play it tight, slow and controlled, they will not take any risks and just keep plugging away via the forwards. They have no need to chase this game or try anthing complex or risky. They would grind out a 3 nil or 6 - 3 etc as that would be good eniough. To think they will come out all guns blazing and try and run 4 tries on us makes no sense, they dont have to so they wont and of course an open game of rugby even allows minnows get 1 to 2 break away tries in a game!! Even vs the Blacks!!

Why would they expose themselves to risk?

Goodluck2me

they will probably concede a record number of penalties too, as 3 points here is infinitely better than conceding 5.

gosplan

Argentina will feel they can beat us by playing their normal game.

They also know that we'll be going high risk - further giving them the advantage.

The only......only.....way that Ireland can come out of this is if...

a: we start a game brilliantly for the first time since England in the 6 nations.
b: we get an early try against a team that hasn't conceeded a single one yet.
e: Argentina panic and play poorly.
c: the ref is kind to us and sin-bins players quickly.
d: our backs connect with each other for the first time in ages.

if any of those doesn't happen, we won't get through.

I give us somewhere between 0-5% chance.

Anyone know where I can get tickets for Cardiff? :):)

marco_polo

gosplan wrote:

Argentina will feel they can beat us by playing their normal game.

They also know that we'll be going high risk - further giving them the advantage.

The only......only.....way that Ireland can come out of this is if...

a: we start a game brilliantly for the first time since England in the 6 nations.
b: we get an early try against a team that hasn't conceeded a single one yet.
e: Argentina panic and play poorly.
c: the ref is kind to us and sin-bins players quickly.
d: our backs connect with each other for the first time in ages.

if any of those doesn't happen, we won't get through.

I give us somewhere between 0-5% chance.

Anyone know where I can get tickets for Cardiff? :):)

There is a 95% chance there will be about 50,000 of them going on general sale on Monday

Blowfish

Erin Go Brath wrote:

Finally a bit of sense on this thread!

Reality check lads: We have to score 4 tries against Argentina. A team who have conceeded NO tries so far in this tournament. We scrape a win over minnows Georgia scoring 2 tries, and now we're going to score 4 against a much superior team. :rolleyes: With all the will, and blind patriotism in the world its just not going to happen.

If we put up a good display and beat Argentina thats all we can ask at this stage really.

Not to mention that even if by some miracle Ireland qualifies, going up against the All Blacks with they way we're playing will end up in sheer humiliation

zAbbo

Blowfish wrote:

Not to mention that even if by some miracle Ireland qualifies, going up against the All Blacks with they way we're playing will end up in sheer humiliation

All Blacks are playing quite poorly by their own high standards, and they're relatively untested so far...

nacho libre

rather than starting a new thread... http://www.itv.com/Sport/rugbyworldcup/News/Articles/O_Driscoll-bangs-Irish-drum.html

if he says it can be done we must believe:D

Blowfish

zabbo wrote:

All Blacks are playing quite poorly by their own high standards, and they're relatively untested so far...

heh, saying Ireland will be able to test them is pretty optimistic

marco_polo

Blowfish wrote:

Not to mention that even if by some miracle Ireland qualifies, going up against the All Blacks with they way we're playing will end up in sheer humiliation

Fair point, but on the other hand if by some divine miracle (EOS doing a deal with the devil or something) we managed to get the bonus point victory I would assume we would have had played pretty damn well to have achieved it.

If this came to pass I doubt it would be complete humiliation, perhaps more likely just a humbling experience slight hint of embarassment. ie 20 + points rather than 50+

Diamondmaker

Well if BOD says we can do it!


In BOD we have to trust.

Ill chear to the death but not betting on this one, I really cant wait for this match I hope at the very least we get the feeling for some of the game that we can do it!

marco_polo

Diamondmaker wrote:

Well if BOD says we can do it!


In BOD we have to trust.

Ill chear to the death but not betting on this one, I really cant wait for this match I hope at the very least we get the feeling for some of the game that we can do it!

I have been stung three times on the handicap betting by this Ireland side already, so I will be cheering them on loudly come sunday, but with my wallet firmly in my pocket (Except when it my round of course ).

Crash

Screw this, I know its unlikely. I know that we've played ****. I know all of this. Hell, i've watched each of the ireland matches two or three times now, I know all the ****ups we've made.

Doesnt mean I won't be in a pub come sunday screaming at a television, and most of all:

DOESN'T mean i'll stop screaming til the end.

Its still our team, and i'll support em to the end.

Blowfish

&#231 wrote: »

Screw this, I know its unlikely. I know that we've played ****. I know all of this. Hell, i've watched each of the ireland matches two or three times now, I know all the ****ups we've made.

Doesnt mean I won't be in a pub come sunday screaming at a television, and most of all:

DOESN'T mean i'll stop screaming til the end.

Its still our team, and i'll support em to the end.

Agreed. Although now it's more of a 'cheer on the underdog' type of support

Snickers Man

If France fail to score a bonus point against Georgia, it's not the end of the world. It just means that we will have to:
a) score 4 tries against Argentina
and
b) prevent them from scoring four tries against us
and
c) beat them by a margin of 50 points.

Could happen. :eek: