Permutations

Everyones saying if we beat argies by 4 tries we go through, but surely we would just be level on points then and their points difference will carry them through assuming they put 40 or 50 points on the board against namibia?

We are both on 9 they will be on 14 after namibia, i think they are already about 38 points up. win by 50 against namibia we have to beat them by more then 44 points?

Our IRFU should do a real madrid and offer the namibians 20K a man who plays if they can keep the argies from getting bonus point. Id say 20K would go a long way in africa

Snickers Man

Deleted User wrote:

Everyones saying if we beat argies by 4 tries we go through, but surely we would just be level on points then and their points difference will carry them through assuming they put 40 or 50 points on the board against namibia?

Not quite.

If two teams are level on points at the end of the group stage the first means of differentiating between them is the result in the head to head match. So if we beat Argentina and finish level on points ONLY with them, we go through regardless of how bad our points difference is.

Where points difference comes into it is if more than two teams are tied at the end of the group stages and each has beaten one of the others.

That scenario could take place. If Argentina beat Namibia and get a bonus point, and France FAIL to get a bonus point against Georgia, then we are rightly screwed.

If that happens the most we could hope for is 14 points by beating Argentina and gaining a bonus point. But then all three teams would be on 14 with us having beaten Argentina who beat France who beat us. Then points difference comes into it.

If France fail to get a bonus point against Georgia and Argentina get one against Namibia we would have to score four tries against Argentina and beat them by a points margin of 19+half their winning margin against Namibia.
Confused?

Just pray that the frogs wallop Georgia (likely) and if you really want to get out the prayer mat, ask God not to let Argentina get a bonus point against Namibia.

So we really do have a chance of redemtion then...I think the french should turn it on against the georgians because they saw what they did against Arg and ourselves - so hopefully they get the bonus point and wont be complacent.
I know we've been crap but 4 tries isnt exactly an impossible task. If we can get a workable lineout and the rub of the green its certainly doable. There shouldnt be so much pressure on them this time either because everyone will be expectin failure, hopefully they all wont be crying come the anthem this time and get their sh* together.
He'll have to pick carney and murphy this time, at least murphy or he'll be lynched when he gets home

nacho libre

keep clutching at straws... Ireland failed to get four tries against Georgia's second team. What makes you think they'll score four against Argentina. In order to play free- flowing and potent rugby in the backline you need the forwards to provide a platform and as we've seen so far Ireland's forwards have misearbly failed to do this. I can't see that changing against Argentina.

tolosenc

Anyone up for ringing in a bomb scare to the Argies hotel in the middle of the night, before either of their remaining games. Or both. It could work... :eek:

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote:

keep clutching at straws... Ireland failed to get four tries against Georgia's second team. What makes you think they'll score four against Argentina. In order to play free- flowing and potent rugby in the backline you need the forwards to provide a platform and as we've seen so far Ireland's forwards have misearbly failed to do this. I can't see that changing against Argentina.

We've got to have hope....its far from the impossible, unlikely on current form but id rather be optimistic about it then doom and gloom

philstar

obl wrote:

Anyone up for ringing in a bomb scare to the Argies hotel in the middle of the night, before either of their remaining games. Or both. It could work... :eek:

a bomb scare:rolleyes: .........then they'll definitely know it was the paddies involved

tolosenc

philstar wrote:

a bomb scare:rolleyes: .........then they'll definitely know it was the paddies involved

Yeah, you're right. A bile of smallpox in their hotel's lobby?

LuckyLloyd

Deleted User wrote:

He'll have to pick carney and murphy this time, at least murphy or he'll be lynched when he gets home

no he won't - pick them or be lynched.