I cant believe I'm saying this but Fold KK pf?

pok3rplaya

17/15 UTG raises to $3.50, I 3bet to $12 with shiny red Kings. Folds to 28/12 BB who goes all in for $170, UTG with $126 calls all in and I slap myself in the face.

I have $81 left to call and the effective pot is $198. I need 41% equity to make the call. What do I do with myself?G

Macspower

I'm not happy here but I still shove and pray for $81.... You will prob find one of them has the pointy ones but would you kick yourself if they both showed up with QQ :rolleyes: or AK and QQ.. or AK each..... If you are behind you can still win this 1 in 5 times getting 3/1 on your money....

I'm not folding anyway if I'm properly BR'ed for the game I'm playing.... what the hell and reload is my opinion

Mac

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

NickyOD

pok3rplaya wrote:

I need 41% equity to make the call.

Why?

mdwexford

I defo call but given these ranges your 41% equity is gonna be tight


---
3,306,258,648 games 4.672 secs 707,675,224 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.115% 30.53% 02.59% 1009330992 85548060.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 27.220% 25.20% 02.02% 833321088 66630672.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 39.665% 37.77% 01.90% 1248718428 62709408.00 { KK }

fuzzbox

The first guy doesnt have AK

fuzzbox

You are getting 2:1 so its prolly a call just in case.

If he has QQ+ then its a clear call, but I just feel that 17/15 often has KK+ in this spot, unless you have been 3-bet happy.

mdwexford

fuzzbox wrote:

The first guy doesnt have AK

More than likely not but even given those ranges our equity is still not enough

Also hes getting almost 5/2

CaptainNemo

The massive overbet shove over your raise doesn't seem like aces to me. I'd say UTG is more likely to have 'em. I'd agree one of them IS likely to have them. If there was a time to lay down kings this would probably be it, but the consensus on this forum seems to be that we just don't do this ever. My mind's still open on the subject. But in this situation I don't fold.

fuzzbox

Whenever I read ppl saying "never fold KK pf" I want to shake them, because its horsesh1t.

In a suitably aggressive game Vs a suitably aggressive player, given that you have been suitably aggressive yourself, then fair enough.

But if either.
A. you are up against nitso mc nitington
or
B. you are playing like a nitso mc nitington

and somebody wants to go to the felt at the 4th or 5th time of asking, then you are up against KK+ and should fold.

sikes

You need something like 30% equity not 41%

valor

You need 29%

valor

^^ so call

NickyOD

How many hands have you played with the villain| 17/15 may look scary but all too often I see players even with those stats going bananas with Jacks or AK.

I'm not folding here.

ianmc38

snap call, fist pump etc

cardshark202

I had an identical spot the other day except the original raiser was 15/10, i 3bet to 52, next guy who was pretty bad shoves for 500, nit snapshoves, i call. KK v JJ(idiot) v AKs(nit) and I hold.
In short,
callcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcall

hotspur

He needs 41% equity because he's getting 2.4 to 1 on his money. How are you other guys calculating it and coming up with 29/30%?

With that it's a call if you put their range at JJ+,AK, but not by much. Given the utg guy probably has a QQ+ range and maybe AKs too, then you are looking at equity in the mid 30%'s, and it's a fold.

ianmc38

cardshark202 wrote:

I had an identical spot the other day except the original raiser was 15/10, i 3bet to 52, next guy who was pretty bad shoves for 500, nit snapshoves, i call. KK v JJ(idiot) v AKs(nit) and I hold.
In short,
callcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcall

They're the exact hands I expect to see.

mdwexford

hotspur wrote:

He needs 41% equity because he's getting 2.4 to 1 on his money. How are you other guys calculating it and coming up with 29/30%?

With that it's a call if you put their range at JJ+,AK, but not by much. Given the utg guy probably has a QQ+ range and maybe AKs too, then you are looking at equity in the mid 30%'s, and it's a fold.

I think they're working it out as 30% because

3 x $198 = $594

7 x $81 = $567

So you only need to win 30% of the time to show profit
I am open to correction though as its pretty late/early

BobSloane

hotspur wrote:

He needs 41% equity because he's getting 2.4 to 1 on his money. How are you other guys calculating it and coming up with 29/30%?

Handiest way to work it out is 1/3.4 = 0.29
Just like getting 2-1 would be 1/3 = 0.33

RoundTower

how can anyone think you need 41% when there are 3 players.

pok3rplaya

Either I'm an idiot or I didn't explain myself properly. The effective stack is $93 because thats what I start the hand with. The other guys cover me but I cant win that extra money. So pot odds aren't 12+170+126=308 to 81, they're 12+93+93=198 to 81 or 41%.

opr

pok3rplaya wrote:

they're 12+93+93=198 to 81 or 41%.

Emmm ok 198 and you need to call 81 this means pot odds of 2.45/1 ~ 29% equity needed.

Opr

Van Dice

fuzzbox wrote:

Whenever I read ppl saying "never fold KK pf" I want to shake them, because its horsesh1t.

In a suitably aggressive game Vs a suitably aggressive player, given that you have been suitably aggressive yourself, then fair enough.

But if either.
A. you are up against nitso mc nitington
or
B. you are playing like a nitso mc nitington

and somebody wants to go to the felt at the 4th or 5th time of asking, then you are up against KK+ and should fold.

Agree, but not the case here!

opr

I just read this whole thread as i was only replying to the last post, seriously how do people think you need 41% here ?

Simple example

I am getting 2/1.

First time i bet 1 dollar i lose = -1
Second time i bet another dollar i lose = -1
Third time i bet 1 dollar and win = 2/1 = 2 + 1(my dollar back)

So break even is 1/3 ~ 33%

Edit - remember in poker if we win we also get our stake back.

Opr

Van Dice

opr wrote:

Simple example

I am getting 2/1.

First time i bet 1 dollar i lose = -1
Second time i bet another dollar i lose = -1
Third time i bet 1 dollar and win = 2/1 = 2 + 1(my dollar back)

If you martingaled you would have won money overall here, more proof that chasing losses is good

opr

Van Dice wrote:

If you martingaled you would have won money overall here, more proof that chasing losses is good

Martin's system is in the past after years of work and development i have decided that he is losing out on money. Its kinda top secert but revolves around the quadrupling theory. Can't say anymore

Opr

pok3rplaya

I'm having a stupid day, I still cant see it.

But yeah if it's 29% then it's a call.

RoundTower

you put in your money, $x, to win back $x from each of the two players, so $2x in total. This means you need 33% to break even. If it was one player you would need 50%, if there were 3 others 25% and so on. Then there is some dead money so you push this down a few %. How did you play for so long and apparently very successfully and not get this.

BobSloane

pok3rplaya wrote:

Either I'm an idiot or I didn't explain myself properly. The effective stack is $93 because thats what I start the hand with. The other guys cover me but I cant win that extra money. So pot odds aren't 12+170+126=308 to 81, they're 12+93+93=198 to 81 or 41%.

308 to 81 = 3.8 to 1 => 21% equity required
198 to 81 = 2.4 to 1 => 29% equity required

For 41% equity you would be requiring 1.43 to 1 (59/41) which would equate to a pot size of $116.

Outside of maths etc I think you would need to be a lot deeper than 93bbs to ever consider folding KK preflop due to the 3 and 4 betting that would have taken place. I mean if AK is generally the nuts at 100bbs or less surely KK is a stone cold lock!

Mellor

pok3rplaya wrote:

Either I'm an idiot or I didn't explain myself properly. The effective stack is $93 because thats what I start the hand with. The other guys cover me but I cant win that extra money. So pot odds aren't 12+170+126=308 to 81, they're 12+93+93=198 to 81 or 41%.

Your mistake is in this post. The amount you need to call as a percent of the amount you can win isn't the win % required.
81 is 41% of 198, but that means nothing.

Consider if somebody open shoves for $97 in a 1/2 game. 97 to win 100. By your thinking we need 97%, which clearly is off.

To get required equity, divide pot by amount to call. Add one and divide 100 by this number.
198/81=2.44
100/(2.44+1)=29%
Call

pok3rplaya

OK it's confirmed, I am an idiot. I get it now though. Thanks everyone for putting the time in to help the special ones among us.

pok3rplaya

RoundTower wrote:

How did you play for so long and apparently very successfully and not get this.

More importantly how did I get a degree in maths!?

zuutroy

Fold...here's the proof:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

SB ($18.65)
BB ($25)
UTG ($17.45)
UTG+1 ($20.30)
MP1 ($28.85)
Hero ($25.90)
CO ($21.60)
Button ($24.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with , .
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 raises to $1.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, 4 folds, UTG raises to $17.45, UTG+1 raises to $20.3, Hero calls $15.30.

Flop: ($58.40) , , (3 players)

Turn: ($58.40) (3 players)

River: ($58.40) (3 players)

Final Pot: $58.40


UTG has Jc Jd (full house, twos full of jacks).
UTG+1 has As Ad (full house, twos full of aces).
Hero has Ks Kc (full house, twos full of kings).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $58.40.

Mellor

Results based thinking comes to mind

Theresalwaysone

zuutroy wrote:

Fold...here's the proof:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

SB ($18.65)
BB ($25)
UTG ($17.45)
UTG+1 ($20.30)
MP1 ($28.85)
Hero ($25.90)
CO ($21.60)
Button ($24.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with , .
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 raises to $1.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, 4 folds, UTG raises to $17.45, UTG+1 raises to $20.3, Hero calls $15.30.

Flop: ($58.40) , , (3 players)

Turn: ($58.40) (3 players)

River: ($58.40) (3 players)

Final Pot: $58.40


UTG has Jc Jd (full house, twos full of jacks).
UTG+1 has As Ad (full house, twos full of aces).
Hero has Ks Kc (full house, twos full of kings).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $58.40.

Should have gotten away from it.

zuutroy

5bb raise followed by a 5x pot raise by a 15/3/2 just had me laying down KK. Can anyone argue with this?

The re-raiser showed-down AA.

cooker3

zuutroy wrote:

5bb raise followed by a 5x pot raise by a 15/3/2 just had me laying down KK. Can anyone argue with this?

The re-raiser showed-down AA.

You don't think he re-raises with queens?

zuutroy

cooker3 wrote:

You don't think he re-raises with queens?

Well it was an instant, 5x pot raise from a guy I've never seen re-raise. I just smelled a rat straight away.

kincsem

I folded KK preflop in a Sit & Go yesterday. I had a good stack but three all-ns against me (after I raised). I would have won if I played. It didn't worry me to fold.