TP+NFD hand

pok3rplaya

100NL with 100bb stacks. I make it $3.50 UTG with Ah Kd and get one call from UTG+1. This guy seems to be a regular playing 25/2.5/2.5. Probably cold calls a lot preflop even with stuff like KK. I haven't being playing this site long so I'm not really sure how things work yet.

Flop is Ad 8d 7d giving me TPTK and the nut flush draw. Pot: $8.50.

I cbet for $5 and get minraised to $10.

I figure his range at this point to be 77/88/AK/AxQd/9Ts/56s (thoughts?). Pokerstove tells me I'm 61.5% to win against that range so folding is bad. Question is, do I call or 3bet.

If you say 3bet please explain why you think it is the best optionand if you say call please say what I should do on a blank turn.

ianmc38

I'd 3 bet because against that range its best to get it in now especially for the times he has Ax with a worse diamond or AK.

it also depends what part of that range he'll call a 3bet with/4bet all in over. Obv if its only sets and made flushes then calling now is better. If he'll go broke with AK/AQ with or without a diamond then obv its better to get it in now. If he'll fold those to a 3bet then calling is better.

NickyOD

EDIT: Wait 3 diamonds out there. I would definitely just call.

valor

i call and cc turn probably cc river too, maybe find a fold there. if turn checks thru vb river

cardshark202

I 3bet cos he prob wont fold any of that range given his stats. I'm 3betting for value and getting it in on any turn

Hawk Eye

Make it $15 and call a shove.

gosplan

pok3rplaya wrote:

100NL with 100bb stacks. I make it $3.50 UTG with Ah Kd and get one call from UTG+1. This guy seems to be a regular playing 25/2.5/2.5. Probably cold calls a lot preflop even with stuff like KK. I haven't being playing this site long so I'm not really sure how things work yet.

Flop is Ad 8d 7d giving me TPTK and the nut flush draw. Pot: $8.50.

I cbet for $5 and get minraised to $10.

I figure his range at this point to be 77/88/AK/AxQd/9Ts/56s (thoughts?). Pokerstove tells me I'm 61.5% to win against that range so folding is bad. Question is, do I call or 3bet.

If you say 3bet please explain why you think it is the best optionand if you say call please say what I should do on a blank turn.

Just a question about the range you're assigning. Would we not put any SC dimaonds in there as well, i.e. JQ, 10J, 45, 34?

Can we narrow this min-raise down to either a made hand or a high diamond looking for a free card?

I would think that the implied odds if he's flush drawing are too high to think about 3 betting and scaring him off.

pok3rplaya

gosplan wrote:

Just a question about the range you're assigning. Would we not put any SC dimaonds in there as well, i.e. JQ, 10J, 45, 34?

Good point. That makes us 59% to win instead of 61.5%.

NickyOD

pok3rplaya wrote:

Good point. That makes us 59% to win instead of 61.5%.

I think putting a straight draw in his range is pretty optimistic tbh.

cardshark202

I think he's less likely to have a set and more likely to have a pair+fd or a made flush

valor

I dont think 109/56 are really in his range, but why have you left out A8 and 9 and 89?

pok3rplaya

OK if I adjust his range to be:

88, 77,
AQs+,
A8s, A7s,
QdJd, JdTd, Td9d,
87s,
AK, AxQd,

as suggested. Then we are now 53% to win. I guess this makes 3betting a worse option then it was when we were 60% to win.

pok3rplaya

The reason I posted the hand was because this is a spot where I think the usual 3bet move is flawed. Even if we were really 60% to win vs his range when he raises us, if we 3bet then our equity against his calling/shoving range is much lower. Basically we're not really folding out or getting value from any hands that we beat.

fuzzbox

pok3rplaya wrote:

100NL with 100bb stacks. I make it $3.50 UTG with Ah Kd and get one call from UTG+1. This guy seems to be a regular playing 25/2.5/2.5. Probably cold calls a lot preflop even with stuff like KK. I haven't being playing this site long so I'm not really sure how things work yet.

Flop is Ad 8d 7d giving me TPTK and the nut flush draw. Pot: $8.50.

I cbet for $5 and get minraised to $10.

I figure his range at this point to be 77/88/AK/AxQd/9Ts/56s (thoughts?). Pokerstove tells me I'm 61.5% to win against that range so folding is bad. Question is, do I call or 3bet.

If you say 3bet please explain why you think it is the best optionand if you say call please say what I should do on a blank turn.

Why does he never have a made flush?

pok3rplaya

Right one last time, I'm revising his range at the point where we get minraised to be

AQs+, AQo+
77, 88
A8s, A7s, 78s,
QJd, TJd, T9d, 56d

Against this range we are 57% to win.

I feel that if we 3bet at this point, he likely pushes with 77/88/A8s/A7s/78s and all made flushes. Basically all the hands that beat us. All we're really accomplishing is giving the hands we're ahead of, namely AQ, a chance to get away and we get the money in behind.

fuzzbox

There is no need to go ape-sh1t with your hand.
You have pretty much all the draws in trouble, and you have a reasonable hand also.

I think valors line is good.

Van Dice

pok3rplaya, would your argument be the same for any Axx rainbow board?

pok3rplaya

Van Dice wrote:

pok3rplaya, would your argument be the same for any Axx rainbow board?

Well once we take the straight draws out of his range then yeah pretty much I suppose.

30something

fuzzbox wrote:

Why does he never have a made flush?

Surely he's not going to only min raise this flop with the non-nut made flush

30something

pok3rplaya wrote:

I cbet for $5 and get minraised to $10.

This is not a cbet, you hit the flop!

edit: don't mean to be pedantic

mrflash

I would 3bet back to him and if he reraises i am only too glad to get my money in with this hand.

pok3rplaya

30something wrote:

This is not a cbet, you hit the flop!

edit: don't mean to be pedantic

Why not? The name implies nothing about whether or not you hit the flop.

Hectorjelly

I would just call unless the villain is in the habit of getting all in in spots like this with one pair hands

Lemegeton

just a call is the best option